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Saturday, November 30, 2019

Baltic dry index - 1528

Today, Friday, November 29 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 61 points, reaching 1528 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 802


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, November 29, 2019

OUE - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 OCBC OUE 1.66 2.32 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC OUE 1.79 2.32 Buy
11/21/19 OCBC OUE 1.49 1.69 Buy

Olam - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/26/19 Lim & Tan Olam 1.82 0 Hold

OCBC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 CIMB OCBC 11.1 14 Add PER10.8x FY20
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.03 14.05 Buy
01/08/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.37 13.82 Buy
01/31/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.39 10.95 Hold DDM
02/01/19 phillip OCBC 11.51 13.7 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.49 13.82 Buy
02/13/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.41 10.95 Hold
02/25/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12 Hold PB1.2x CY19
02/25/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 13.85 Buy
02/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.39 12.9 Buy GGM, PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.39 10.73 Hold DDM
02/27/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.2 13 Outperform PB
03/04/19 phillip OCBC 11.1 13.7 Buy
03/07/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.22 10.73 Hold
03/11/19 CIMB OCBC 11.05 12 Hold
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.99 13.85 Buy
04/02/19 phillip OCBC 11.21 13.7 Buy
04/02/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.21 12.9 Buy
04/11/19 CIMB OCBC 11.72 12 Hold
04/22/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.77 12.2 Neutral PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/23/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.78 10.73 Hold
04/24/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.83 14.12 Buy GGM, PB1.39x FY19
05/03/19 phillip OCBC 12.04 13.7 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.31 12.2 Neutral PB1.12x FY20
05/10/19 CIMB OCBC 11.31 12 Hold
05/13/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.39 13 Outperform
05/13/19 phillip OCBC 11.39 12.68 Accumulate GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 14.62 Buy GGM, PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.26x
05/22/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.09 11.07 Hold
06/03/19 CIMB OCBC 10.57 12.59 Hold
06/06/19 phillip OCBC 10.63 12.7 Accumulate
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.8 14.62 Buy
06/17/19 Kim Eng OCBC 10.78 11.07 Hold
06/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.28 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
07/01/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.4 14.62 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.59 11.07 Hold
07/03/19 phillip OCBC 11.54 12.7 Accumulate
07/08/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.39 12.2 Neutral GGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.64 11.5 Hold
08/02/19 Lim & Tan OCBC 11.42 0 Buy on weakness
08/05/19 phillip OCBC 11.21 12.5 Accumulate GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.21 11.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.21 14.48 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.21 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19 CIMB OCBC 11.08 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.08 11.05 Hold DDM
08/20/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 10.71 11.5 Neutral GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19 CIMB OCBC 10.69 12.53 Hold
09/02/19 phillip OCBC 10.65 12.32 Accumulate GGM
09/05/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.71 14.48 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
09/26/19 Kim Eng OCBC 10.77 11.05 Neutral
09/26/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 10.77 11.5 Neutral GGM, PB1.07x FY20
09/27/19 CIMB OCBC 10.82 12.53 Hold
10/04/19 phillip OCBC 10.71 12.32 Accumulate
10/17/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.86 14.45 Buy  GGM, PB1.4x FY19
10/23/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 10.71 11.5 Hold
11/05/19 phillip OCBC 11.07 12.32 Accumulate
11/05/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.07 11.5 Neutral GGM, PB1.08x FY20
11/05/19 Lim & Tan OCBC 11.07 0 Buy
11/06/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.08 12.4 Outperform PB
11/06/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.08 11.26 Hold DDM
11/06/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.08 14.45 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
11/06/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.08 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
11/07/19 phillip OCBC 11.1 11.7 Accumulate GGM, PB1.1x

Stock calls for 29 November 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/29/19 DBS Vickers AEM 1.71 2.38 Buy PER12.1x FY20
11/29/19 CIMB Dairy Farm 5.93 5.4 Reduce PER22x CY20
11/29/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.905 1.06 Buy PER10x FY20
11/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.235 0.295 Buy
11/29/19 Morgan Stanley Thai Beverage 0.865 1.08 Overweight
11/29/19 Nomura Thai Beverage 0.865 1.04 Buy
11/29/19 JP Morgan Thai Beverage 0.865 1 Overweight
11/29/19 Credit Suisse Thai Beverage 0.865 0.9 Neutral
11/29/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.89 1.08 Buy PER14x FY20

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Netlink - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.765 0.99 Buy DCF
01/02/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.765 0.93 Buy
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.77 0.87 Buy DCF
02/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.785 0.93 Buy DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.79 0.87 Buy DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.79 0.99 Buy
02/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.805 0.92 Buy DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19 OCBC Netlink 0.805 0.9 Buy
03/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.795 0.9 Buy
03/27/19 Phillip Netlink 0.825 0.89 Accumulate DCF
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.83 0.92 Buy
04/01/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy
05/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.825 0.92 Buy DCF
05/09/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.82 0.87 Buy
05/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.835 0.95 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.835 0.9 Buy DCF
05/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.835 0.93 Accumulate DCF
05/15/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.835 0.94 Buy DDM
06/03/19 Phillip Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy DCF
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.825 0.9 Buy
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.835 0.97 Buy
06/27/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.89 0.94 Buy
07/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.88 0.93 Accumulate DCF
07/17/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.885 0.94 Buy
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.88 0.92 Buy DCF
08/06/19 Phillip Netlink 0.88 0.93 Accumulate DCF
08/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.865 0.94 Buy DDM
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.865 0.95 Buy DCF
10/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.9 1.01 Buy DCF
10/11/19 Phillip Netlink 0.91 0.93 Accumulate
10/17/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.9 1.03 Buy DDM
10/18/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.91 0.95 Buy
11/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.935 1.01 Buy DCF
11/04/19 Phillip Netlink 0.935 0.99 Accumulate DCF
11/05/19 OCBC Netlink 0.955 1.03 Buy
11/05/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.955 1.04 Buy DCF
11/05/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.955 1.06 Buy

Nera Telecom - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Nera Telecom 0.285 0 Buy

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.06 0.11 Buy
02/13/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.082 0.11 Buy DCF
03/05/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.077 0.11 Buy DCF
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.081 0.095 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.076 0.1 Buy
08/20/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.068 0.083 Buy DCF
10/15/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.065 0.08 Buy

Stock calls for 28 November 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.375 0.44 Buy PER20.3x FY20
11/28/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.24 0.24 Neutral DCF

The US and Australia are using a China fraudster to smear China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-media-releases-court-footage-002549916.html

China is a rule of law country unlike what the west has alleged about China being a country of jailing people without a fair trial.  The fact is China has a fair judiciary system whereby it records its court proceeding and also will do a live court telecast of a controversial case when necessary.

The US and Australia are embarking on a silly smearing campaign against China by fabricating some antics about China.

The latest US GDP growth is not reflecting the actual economic situation.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-grew-faster-q3-213420576.html

The US Q3 GDP growth at 2.1% is not reflecting the actual economic growth as compared to the PMI numbers.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-us-pmi-is-still-contracting-in.html


Let me illustrate how the headline number can fool you by looking at the example below.

GDP = G + I + C + (X-M)
GDP = 1 + 1 + 1 + (1-1)
= 3

Then, the actual economic conditions deteriorate with Consumption decreasing by 20% and M(imports) decreasing by 50% while the rest are stagnant.

GDP = 1 + 1 + 0.8 + (1-0.5)
= 3.3

The GDP has increased by 10% from 3 to 3.3 when the consumption and imports are falling because of economic deterioration. Thus, the headline GDP number is not reflecting the actual economic situation.

The fissure between the US and China is getting bigger.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-signs-bills-support-hong-234627290.html

Trump has infuriated China by signing the HK human rights bill.  Will this affect the US-China trade deal? Yes!

China will definitely retaliate but the severity of the backlash is unknown.

The US is interfering in China's internal affairs by administering HK with this HK human rights bill.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

What is Hong Kong's future now?

The last battlefield is about to end in HK.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039591/hong-kong-police-mull-entering-besieged-campus-warrant

We had stated that the besieged campus would be the last battlefield (see below post) because the HK protestors could not organize a large mass protest anymore.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/ordinary-hk-citizens-are-fighting-back.html

So what's next for HK?

The recent electoral victory by the HK pro-democracy supporters has created more uncertainties for HK because it may lose the support of China.

Many analysts still think that China needs HK for foreign capital since HK is a financial hub.  However, the truth is the exact opposite because China allows HK to be a financial hub instead.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

HK is a financial hub which is a symptom of China's political interest in HK.  An analogy to put this across more clearly is fever is the symptom of an infection and fever doesn't cause infection but infection causes fever to surface.  Therefore, HK's financial hub is a "fever" symptom.

In retrospect, China doesn't need HK as a springboard for foreign entities to inject funds into China.  Just look at our Suzhou Industrial park (SIP) project.  Did SG develop the SIP via HK? No!

How about our recent tie-up with Chongqing?  We also didn't go through HK.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3026767/singapore-and-chongqing-seal-deals-trade-telecoms-and-ties

Tesla also didn't go through HK to set up its factory in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_3

Does China need HK to raise funds? No!  China can go to the EU to raise funds easily because its bonds are well received in the EU.  Therefore, HK doesn't have any financial merit for China other than for political interest.

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/14/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.3 0.33 Hold Sum of parts
02/21/19 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.3 0.37 Add Sum of parts
02/21/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.3 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
03/26/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.315 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
05/31/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.24 0.34 Buy Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.245 0.26 Hold
07/19/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.23 0.34 Buy PER16x FY20
08/15/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.197 0.29 Buy Sum of parts
08/20/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.186 0.2 Hold PEG1x
10/09/19 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.215 0.32 Add Sum of parts
11/15/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.285 0.3 Hold Sum of parts, PER12.8x FY20

MIT - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 Lim & Tan MIT 0.36 0.405 Buy Mid-point of $0.4-0.41

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.655 0.87 Buy
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.66 0.83 Buy DCF
08/27/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.525 0.83 Buy

Stock calls for 27 November 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/27/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.84 0.88 Accumulate DDM, PB0.62x FY19
11/27/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.37 0.47 Buy PER23x FY20
11/27/19 CIMB Jumbo 0.37 0.47 Add

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.67 1.7 Accumulate PER15x FY19
05/02/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.63 1.63 Neutral PER15x FY20
09/03/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.59 1.6 Neutral PER15x FY20
11/05/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.9 1.6 Reduce

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/19/19 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.084 0.06 Sell Sum of parts
03/19/19 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.084 0.158 Hold PB0.48x CY18

Memtech - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.03 0 Buy on weakness
02/28/19 CIMB Memtech 1.03 1.08 Hold PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.985 1.33 Buy PER11x FY19
04/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.96 1.33 Buy
05/15/19 CIMB Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
06/17/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.33 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35

Stock calls for 26 November 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/26/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.49 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
11/26/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy
11/26/19 Amfrasers EC World Reit 0.74 0.84 outperform DDM
11/26/19 Lim & Tan Olam 1.82 0 Hold
11/26/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.85 3 Buy
11/26/19 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.89 0.8 Reduce Sum of parts
11/26/19 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.89 0.91 Hold

Monday, November 25, 2019

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.35 Buy
01/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.45 Buy
02/09/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.45 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.31 1.45 Buy
05/02/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.4 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.6 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.45 1.65 Buy DCF
07/30/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.38 1.43 Hold
07/31/19 CIMB Mapletree North Asia 1.42 1.5 Add DDM
08/14/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.28 1.43 Buy
09/30/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.33 1.65 Buy DCF
10/29/19 Lim & Tan Mapletree North Asia 1.26 0 Hold
10/30/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.27 1.6 Buy DCF
10/31/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.27 1.43 Buy
11/12/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.23 1.6 Buy

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.26 1.42 Add DDM
01/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.33 1.39 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.4 Buy
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.5 Buy
01/23/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.3 Hold DDM
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.39 1.5 Buy
01/23/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.44 Add DDM
02/28/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.39 1.3 Hold
03/07/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.42 1.5 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.44 1.45 Hold
04/29/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.4 Hold
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.6 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.48 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.47 1.38 Hold
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.39 Hold Buy @ $1.26
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.5 1.6 Buy
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.85 Buy
07/23/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.4 Hold
07/24/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.55 Hold
07/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.6 1.39 Hold DDM
09/18/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.58 1.85 Buy
10/22/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.66 1.6 Hold
10/22/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.66 1.41 Hold
10/22/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.66 1.55 Hold DDM
11/07/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.69 1.9 Buy