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Saturday, November 2, 2019

The US PMI is still contracting in October 2019.

The ISM PMI is in its 3rd consecutive contraction month at 48.3.

The PMI prices decreased to 45.5 because the producers reduced their imports and used more local raw materials.

The supplier's deliveries were reduced because of lower production.  However, the new order increased because of a huge jump in the export order.  The new local order decreased tremendously which showed that the local consumption was weakening drastically.  As the US economy is made up of 70% consumer consumption, this drastic drop will affect the US GDP severely.  This might also explain the reduced production as the producers were not optimistic about the US future economic growth.

The increase in customers' inventories was just to fulfill existing orders (backlog of order) and the export order but the local consumption is deteriorating rapidly which is a major concern.

The latest GDP forecast by the Atlanta FED is also showing a worrying economic sign.

The Atlanta FED is forecasting real GDP growth of 1.1% for 4th Qtr 2019 which is way below the recent 1.9% GDP growth in 3rd Qtr 2019.

1 comment:

Eric Ho said...

The Atlanta FED is tasked with US GDP research and forecast by the US government.

Why is the Atlanta FED projecting such a low GDP growth? Is the Atlanta FED fearmongering or it really sees something that we're not privy to?