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Monday, July 1, 2019

President Trump is the man behind wall street. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/president-trump-is-man-behind-wall.html

Trump did everything he could to make sure that the trade talk didn't fall out.

He didn't insist on his previous terms (no mention of IP theft, forced technology transfer, change of China laws to accommodate his demands, etc).

He didn't mention HK at all in the trade talk.

He didn't impose new tariffs against China.

Why is Trump getting soft on China?

We have come up with a few reasons for Trump's meekness.

1. The top US business leaders are rallying their demands for "No China tariffs".
2. The 2nd QTR GDP will look bad.
3. Many Americans cannot enjoy Christmas if there are more China tariffs.
4. Farmers are suffering and losing their China market share.
5. Trump's popularity is dropping fast and furious.

Saturday, June 29, 2019

Many analysts were dead wrong about Vietnam benefitting from the US-China trade war.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/vietnam-says-committed-to--free-and-fair--trade-after-trump-tariff-threat-11671716

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs against Vietnam.

We differed from many analysts over the view that Vietnam would benefit from the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/do-thailand-and-vietnam-really-benefit.html

We had stated our view in our previous post above.  Smaller nations like Vietnam and Thai do not have the same clout as China to ward off the US tariffs because their economies and military prowess are not in the same league as China.  They will be bullied by the US and they will bend to US demands.  Vietnam is in trouble now.

A trade truce has been reached between the US and China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-xi-talk-trade-economic-233226847.html

Basically, this is just about remaining a status quo since existing tariffs will remain with no new additional tariffs.

However, non-tariffs measures such as restrictions placed on China and the US companies will escalate in the name of national security concerns which may not seem to be trade-related.

Let's see how this will pan out since Trump is not a credible leader and always flip-flop on his agreements.

Baltic dry index - 1354

Today, Friday, June 28 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 1354 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 967


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, June 28, 2019

Sunningdale - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sunningdale 1.56 1.3 Hold PER11x FY19, Buy @ $1.20
03/01/19 Lim & Tan Sunningdale 1.56 0 Hold
03/05/19 CIMB Sunningdale 1.4 1.38 Reduce PB0.69x FY19
04/11/19 Lim & Tan Sunningdale 1.39 0 Hold
05/07/19 Lim & Tan Sunningdale 1.35 0 Hold
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Sunningdale 1.32 1.22 Hold PER11x FY20, Buy @ $1.10
05/09/19 CIMB Sunningdale 1.32 1.38 Hold PB0.69x FY19

Starhub - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.75 1.6 Sell
01/02/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.75 2.21 Buy
01/04/19 Phillip Starhub 1.71 1.88 Accumulate EV/Ebitda6x FY19
01/14/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.77 1.9 Neutral
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.77 2.45 Buy DCF
02/07/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.82 2.21 Buy
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.89 2.45 Buy
02/15/19 OCBC Starhub 1.9 1.64 Sell
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.9 2.02 Neutral DCF
02/15/19 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.9 1.92 Hold DCF
02/15/19 Lim & Tan Starhub 1.9 0 Sell
02/18/19 Phillip Starhub 1.67 1.58 Neutral EV/Ebitda
02/18/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.67 2.18 Buy DCF
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.67 1.45 Sell DCF
02/19/19 CIMB Starhub 1.61 2 Hold DCF
03/26/19 CIMB Starhub 1.51 1.65 Hold DCF (10% discount)
04/01/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.49 2.18 Buy
05/06/19 Phillip Starhub 1.58 1.62 Neutral
05/06/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.58 1.45 Sell DCF
05/06/19 CIMB Starhub 1.58 1.65 Hold DCF (10% discount)
05/06/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.58 1.72 Neutral DCF
05/06/19 OCBC Starhub 1.58 1.64 Hold
05/06/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.58 2 buy DCF
06/03/19 Phillip Starhub 1.49 1.62 Accumlate EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.49 1.72 Neutral

Starhill - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.68 0.8 Buy DDM
01/31/19 CIMB Starhill 0.72 0.75 Add DDM
01/31/19 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.72 0.75 Buy
02/01/19 OCBC Starhill 0.715 0.75 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.7 0.8 Buy
03/19/19 OCBC Starhill 0.7 0.75 Buy
03/20/19 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.695 0.75 Buy
03/21/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.705 0.78 Buy DDM
03/22/19 CIMB Starhill 0.7 0.74 Add DDM
04/29/19 OCBC Starhill 0.75 0.8 Buy
04/29/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.75 0.78 Buy DDM
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.75 0.8 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Starhill 0.75 0.77 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Starhill 0.75 0.7 Hold
04/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhill 0.755 0.9 Buy DDM
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.74 0.78 Buy DDM
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.735 0.78 Buy
06/17/19 OCBC Starhill 0.755 0.8 Buy

Stock calls for 28 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/28/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.19 1.2 Hold
06/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Ho Bee 2.38 2.79 Buy
06/28/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.67 8.41 Add Sum of parts
06/28/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.675 0.85 Buy PER17x FY19
06/28/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.95 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x FY20

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Stamford Land - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/23/19 Lim & Tan Stamford Land 0.49 0 Hold

ST Engineering - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.51 3.97 Buy
01/23/19 CIMB ST Engineering 3.66 3.94 Add
01/31/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.66 4.06 Buy
02/08/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.75 4.15 Buy Sum of parts
02/21/19 Lim & Tan ST Engineering 3.77 0 Hold
02/22/19 OCBC ST Engineering 3.71 4.01 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.71 4.1 Buy
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.71 4.06 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng ST Engineering 3.71 4.25 Buy DCF
03/13/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.74 4.1 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB ST Engineering 3.75 4.08 Add
03/28/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.75 4.06 Buy
03/28/19 Lim & Tan ST Engineering 3.75 0 Hold
03/29/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.73 4.4 Buy EV/Invested capital basis
03/29/19 OCBC ST Engineering 3.73 4.07 Buy
03/29/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.73 4.15 Buy
04/15/19 Kim Eng ST Engineering 3.82 4.25 Buy
04/25/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.9 4.7 Buy EV/Invested capital basis
04/25/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.9 4.1 Buy
04/25/19 Kim Eng ST Engineering 3.9 4.3 Buy DCF
04/26/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.89 4.15 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 4.02 4.7 Buy
05/16/19 OCBC ST Engineering 3.9 4.22 Buy
05/16/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.9 4.5 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 CIMB ST Engineering 3.9 4.43 Add PER22x FY20
05/22/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.96 4.45 Buy DCF & PER20.5x FY20 & PB5.5x FY20 & EV/Ebitda11x FY20
06/06/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 4 4.45 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 4 4.5 Buy
06/13/19 OCBC ST Engineering 4.09 4.38 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 4.09 4.7 Buy

SPH Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 OCBC SPH Reit 1.01 0.99 Hold
01/07/19 Kim Eng SPH Reit 1.01 1.02 Hold DDM
01/07/19 DBS Vickers SPH Reit 1.01 1.05 Buy DCF
01/07/19 Lim & Tan SPH Reit 1.01 0 Hold
01/07/19 CIMB SPH Reit 1.01 1.02 Hold DDM
04/08/19 Kim Eng SPH Reit 1.06 1.05 Hold DDM
04/08/19 CIMB SPH Reit 1.06 1.08 Hold DDM
04/08/19 OCBC SPH Reit 1.06 1 Hold
04/08/19 DBS Vickers SPH Reit 1.06 1.15 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 27 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/27/19 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3.05 3.21 Buy
06/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.615 0.81 Buy
06/27/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.66 1.65 Neutral DDM
06/27/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.89 0.94 Buy
06/27/19 Kim Eng Top Glove 1.62 1.59 Hold Ringgit target $4.85
06/27/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.05 2.41 Buy

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

SPH - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/14/19 CIMB SPH 2.49 2.64 Hold Sum of parts
01/14/19 Lim & Tan SPH 2.49 0 Hold
01/15/19 OCBC SPH 2.47 2.55 Hold
04/03/19 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.43 2.82 Buy
04/10/19 Lim & Tan SPH 2.53 0 Hold
04/10/19 CIMB SPH 2.53 2.64 Hold Sum of parts
04/18/19 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.46 2.86 Buy Sum of parts
04/18/19 OCBC SPH 2.46 2.55 Hold
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.39 2.86 Buy
06/06/19 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.31 2.86 Buy Sum of parts

Soilbuild Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Soilbuild Reit 0.62 0.65 Buy DCF
01/23/19 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.62 0.62 Hold
01/23/19 Jefferies Soilbuild Reit 0.62 0.62 Hold
04/22/19 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.63 0.62 Hold
04/22/19 DBS Vickers Soilbuild Reit 0.63 0.63 Hold DCF
05/31/19 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.6 0.62 Hold

Singtel - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 2.83 3.58 Buy DCF
01/02/19 Kim Eng Singtel 2.83 3.39 Hold
01/04/19 Phillip Singtel 2.86 3.4 Buy Sum of parts
01/14/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.05 3.22 Neutral
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.05 3.59 Buy Sum of parts
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.05 3.58 Buy
02/12/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.05 3.5 Buy Sum of parts
02/12/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.05 3.39 Hold Sum of parts
02/15/19 OCBC Singtel 3.03 3.79 Buy
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.03 3.22 Neutral Sum of parts
02/18/19 Phillip Singtel 2.99 3.27 Accumulate Sum of parts
02/18/19 CIMB Singtel 2.99 3.4 Add Sum of parts
03/11/19 OCBC Singtel 2.94 3.79 Buy
03/11/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 2.94 3.09 Neutral Sum of parts
03/11/19 Lim & Tan Singtel 2.94 0 Hold
03/12/19 CIMB Singtel 2.93 3.4 Add Sum of parts
03/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 2.99 3.58 Buy DCF
03/22/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 2.97 3.06 Neutral
03/26/19 CIMB Singtel 2.97 3.3 Add Sum of parts
04/01/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.02 3.39 Hold
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.06 3.55 Buy Sum of parts
05/09/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.11 3.55 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.13 3.35 Neutral Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Singtel 3.13 3.59 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB Singtel 3.13 3.4 Add Sum of parts
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.13 3.58 Buy
05/16/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.13 3.37 Hold Sum of parts
05/17/19 Phillip Singtel 3.14 3.31 Accumulate Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19 Phillip Singtel 3.2 3.66 Buy EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.21 3.35 Neutral
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.21 3.55 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.32 3.58 Buy DCF
06/13/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.32 3.48 Hold Sum of parts
06/14/19 CIMB Singtel 3.35 3.5 Add Sum of parts

Stock calls for 26 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/26/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.58 1.69 Buy
06/26/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.58 1.64 Add DDM
06/26/19 DMG & Partners Venture 16.46 16.3 Neutral PER13x FY19
06/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 16.46 17.91 Hold
06/26/19 CLSA Venture 16.46 17.3 Underperform

China is imposing an all out ban on Canadian meats.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-suspends-canadian-meat-imports-002201108.html

Ractopamine is banned in 160 countries because it is harmful to humans.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/11/what-do-you-get-for-being-staunch-usa.html

Canada is trying to poison the Chinese with ractopamine laced meats.

China is right to impose a ban on Canadian and US meats.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-right-to-ban-ractopamine-for.html

Fed's Bullard agrees to a 25bp cut in July 2019 after Kashkari.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-bullard-says-quarter-point-175245421.html

It looks like a July rate cut is a fait accompli because 2 Fed governors have agreed to a rate cut in July 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/citibank-and-fed-kashkari-look-towards.html

The 2 Fed governors corroborate our rate cut analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/traders-are-pricing-in-100-chance-of.html

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Singapore Post - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Post 0.965 1.04 Hold Sum of parts
02/04/19 CIMB Singapore Post 0.965 1.03 Hold DCF
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Singapore Post 0.965 0.92 Hold DCF
02/04/19 Lim & Tan Singapore Post 0.965 0 Hold
02/04/19 OCBC Singapore Post 0.965 1.23 Buy
02/08/19 OCBC Singapore Post 0.955 1 Hold
02/08/19 CLSA Singapore Post 0.955 1.17 Buy
04/04/19 OCBC Singapore Post 0.995 1 Hold
04/08/19 CIMB Singapore Post 1.03 1.2 Add DCF, PER18.2x FY21
05/08/19 OCBC Singapore Post 1.01 1 Hold
05/08/19 CIMB Singapore Post 1.01 1.17 Add DCF
05/08/19 DBS Vickers Singapore Post 1.01 0.96 Hold DCF
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Post 0.99 1.06 Hold Buy @ $0.95

Singapore O&G - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip Singapore O&G 0.34 0.42 Buy
02/21/19 phillip Singapore O&G 0.355 0 Cease Coverage

Singapore Medical - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.4 0.56 Buy
02/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.47 0.65 Buy PER23x FY19
02/21/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.47 0.54 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.445 0.62 Buy PER23x FY19
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.445 0.48 Neutral DCF
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.385 0.48 Neutral DCF
06/07/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.38 0.48 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 25 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/25/19 Kim Eng A-Reit 3.01 3.2 Buy
06/25/19 OCBC ART 1.3 1.25 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.6 2.4 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.59 2.6 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 2.18 2.25 Buy
06/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.28 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
06/25/19 Kim Eng Sasseur 0.79 0.9 Buy
06/25/19 DBS Vickers UOB 25.86 29.2 Buy
06/25/19 Lim & Tan Venture 17.3 0 Hold

Monday, June 24, 2019

Silverlake - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.415 0.65 Buy DCF
01/03/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.405 0.6 Buy PER21x FY19
01/07/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.425 0.62 Buy PER21x FY19
02/01/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.485 0.65 Buy DCF
02/15/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.515 0.62 Buy PER21x FY19
03/01/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.57 0.62 Add Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.555 0.65 Buy DCF
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.61 0.65 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.52 0.63 Buy PER21x FY19
05/16/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.52 0.58 Add
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.53 0.65 Buy DCF