President Trump is the man behind wall street. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/president-trump-is-man-behind-wall.html

Trump did everything he could to make sure that the trade talk didn't fall out.

He didn't insist on his previous terms (no mention of IP theft, forced technology transfer, change of China laws to accommodate his demands, etc).

He didn't mention HK at all in the trade talk.

He didn't impose new tariffs against China.

Why is Trump getting soft on China?

We have come up with a few reasons for Trump's meekness.

1. The top US business leaders are rallying their demands for "No China tariffs".

2. The 2nd QTR GDP will look bad.

3. Many Americans cannot enjoy Christmas if there are more China tariffs.

4. Farmers are suffering and losing their China market share.

5. Trump's popularity is dropping fast and furious.

Many analysts were dead wrong about Vietnam benefitting from the US-China trade war.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/vietnam-says-committed-to--free-and-fair--trade-after-trump-tariff-threat-11671716

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs against Vietnam.

We differed from many analysts over the view that Vietnam would benefit from the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/do-thailand-and-vietnam-really-benefit.html

We had stated our view in our previous post above.  Smaller nations like Vietnam and Thai do not have the same clout as China to ward off the US tariffs because their economies and military prowess are not in the same league as China.  They will be bullied by the US and they will bend to US demands.  Vietnam is in trouble now.

A trade truce has been reached between the US and China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-xi-talk-trade-economic-233226847.html

Basically, this is just about remaining a status quo since existing tariffs will remain with no new additional tariffs.

However, non-tariffs measures such as restrictions placed on China and the US companies will escalate in the name of national security concerns which may not seem to be trade-related.

Let's see how this will pan out since Trump is not a credible leader and always flip-flop on his agreements.

Baltic dry index - 1354

Today, Friday, June 28 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 1354 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

====================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 967

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Sunningdale - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.56	1.3	Hold	PER11x FY19, Buy @ $1.20
03/01/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.56	0	Hold
03/05/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.4	1.38	Reduce	PB0.69x FY19
04/11/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.39	0	Hold
05/07/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.35	0	Hold
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.32	1.22	Hold	PER11x FY20, Buy @ $1.10
05/09/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.32	1.38	Hold	PB0.69x FY19

Starhub - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.75	1.6	Sell
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.75	2.21	Buy
01/04/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.71	1.88	Accumulate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.77	1.9	Neutral
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.77	2.45	Buy	DCF
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.82	2.21	Buy
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.89	2.45	Buy
02/15/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.9	1.64	Sell
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.9	2.02	Neutral	DCF
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.9	1.92	Hold	DCF
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	Starhub	1.9	0	Sell
02/18/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.67	1.58	Neutral	EV/Ebitda
02/18/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.67	2.18	Buy	DCF
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.67	1.45	Sell	DCF
02/19/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.61	2	Hold	DCF
03/26/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.51	1.65	Hold	DCF (10% discount)
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.49	2.18	Buy
05/06/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.58	1.62	Neutral
05/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.58	1.45	Sell	DCF
05/06/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.58	1.65	Hold	DCF (10% discount)
05/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.58	1.72	Neutral	DCF
05/06/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.58	1.64	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.58	2	buy	DCF
06/03/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.49	1.62	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.49	1.72	Neutral

Starhill - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.68	0.8	Buy	DDM
01/31/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.72	0.75	Add	DDM
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.72	0.75	Buy
02/01/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.715	0.75	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.7	0.8	Buy
03/19/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.7	0.75	Buy
03/20/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.695	0.75	Buy
03/21/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.705	0.78	Buy	DDM
03/22/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.7	0.74	Add	DDM
04/29/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.75	0.78	Buy	DDM
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.75	0.77	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Starhill	0.75	0.7	Hold
04/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhill	0.755	0.9	Buy	DDM
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.74	0.78	Buy	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.735	0.78	Buy
06/17/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.755	0.8	Buy

Stock calls for 28 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/28/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.19	1.2	Hold
06/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.38	2.79	Buy
06/28/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.67	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
06/28/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.675	0.85	Buy	PER17x FY19
06/28/19	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.95	7.05	Hold	DDM, PER20x FY20

Stamford Land - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/23/19	Lim & Tan	Stamford Land	0.49	0	Hold

ST Engineering - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.51	3.97	Buy
01/23/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.66	3.94	Add
01/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.66	4.06	Buy
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.75	4.15	Buy	Sum of parts
02/21/19	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	3.77	0	Hold
02/22/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.71	4.01	Buy	FCFE
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.71	4.1	Buy
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.71	4.06	Buy
02/22/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.71	4.25	Buy	DCF
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.74	4.1	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.75	4.08	Add
03/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.75	4.06	Buy
03/28/19	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	3.75	0	Hold
03/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.73	4.4	Buy	EV/Invested capital basis
03/29/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.73	4.07	Buy
03/29/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.73	4.15	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.82	4.25	Buy
04/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.9	4.7	Buy	EV/Invested capital basis
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.9	4.1	Buy
04/25/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.9	4.3	Buy	DCF
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.89	4.15	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.02	4.7	Buy
05/16/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.9	4.22	Buy
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.9	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.9	4.43	Add	PER22x FY20
05/22/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.96	4.45	Buy	DCF & PER20.5x FY20 & PB5.5x FY20 & EV/Ebitda11x FY20
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	4	4.45	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	4	4.5	Buy
06/13/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	4.09	4.38	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.09	4.7	Buy

SPH Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.01	0.99	Hold
01/07/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.01	1.02	Hold	DDM
01/07/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.01	1.05	Buy	DCF
01/07/19	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	1.01	0	Hold
01/07/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.01	1.02	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.06	1.05	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.06	1.08	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.06	1	Hold
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.06	1.15	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 27 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/27/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.05	3.21	Buy
06/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.615	0.81	Buy
06/27/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.66	1.65	Neutral	DDM
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.89	0.94	Buy
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Top Glove	1.62	1.59	Hold	Ringgit target $4.85
06/27/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.05	2.41	Buy

SPH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/14/19	CIMB	SPH	2.49	2.64	Hold	Sum of parts
01/14/19	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.49	0	Hold
01/15/19	OCBC	SPH	2.47	2.55	Hold
04/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.43	2.82	Buy
04/10/19	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.53	0	Hold
04/10/19	CIMB	SPH	2.53	2.64	Hold	Sum of parts
04/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.46	2.86	Buy	Sum of parts
04/18/19	OCBC	SPH	2.46	2.55	Hold
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.39	2.86	Buy
06/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.31	2.86	Buy	Sum of parts

Soilbuild Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.62	0.65	Buy	DCF
01/23/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.62	0.62	Hold
01/23/19	Jefferies	Soilbuild Reit	0.62	0.62	Hold
04/22/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.63	0.62	Hold
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.63	0.63	Hold	DCF
05/31/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.6	0.62	Hold

Singtel - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.83	3.58	Buy	DCF
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	2.83	3.39	Hold
01/04/19	Phillip	Singtel	2.86	3.4	Buy	Sum of parts
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.05	3.22	Neutral
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.05	3.59	Buy	Sum of parts
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.05	3.58	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.05	3.5	Buy	Sum of parts
02/12/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.05	3.39	Hold	Sum of parts
02/15/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.03	3.79	Buy
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.03	3.22	Neutral	Sum of parts
02/18/19	Phillip	Singtel	2.99	3.27	Accumulate	Sum of parts
02/18/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.99	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
03/11/19	OCBC	Singtel	2.94	3.79	Buy
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.94	3.09	Neutral	Sum of parts
03/11/19	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.94	0	Hold
03/12/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.93	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
03/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.99	3.58	Buy	DCF
03/22/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.97	3.06	Neutral
03/26/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.97	3.3	Add	Sum of parts
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.02	3.39	Hold
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.06	3.55	Buy	Sum of parts
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.11	3.55	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.13	3.35	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.13	3.59	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.13	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.13	3.58	Buy
05/16/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.13	3.37	Hold	Sum of parts
05/17/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.14	3.31	Accumulate	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.2	3.66	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.21	3.35	Neutral
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.21	3.55	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.32	3.58	Buy	DCF
06/13/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.32	3.48	Hold	Sum of parts
06/14/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.35	3.5	Add	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 26 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/26/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.58	1.69	Buy
06/26/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.58	1.64	Add	DDM
06/26/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	16.46	16.3	Neutral	PER13x FY19
06/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	16.46	17.91	Hold
06/26/19	CLSA	Venture	16.46	17.3	Underperform

China is imposing an all out ban on Canadian meats.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-suspends-canadian-meat-imports-002201108.html

Ractopamine is banned in 160 countries because it is harmful to humans.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/11/what-do-you-get-for-being-staunch-usa.html

Canada is trying to poison the Chinese with ractopamine laced meats.

China is right to impose a ban on Canadian and US meats.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-right-to-ban-ractopamine-for.html

Fed's Bullard agrees to a 25bp cut in July 2019 after Kashkari.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-bullard-says-quarter-point-175245421.html

It looks like a July rate cut is a fait accompli because 2 Fed governors have agreed to a rate cut in July 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/citibank-and-fed-kashkari-look-towards.html

The 2 Fed governors corroborate our rate cut analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/traders-are-pricing-in-100-chance-of.html

Singapore Post - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
02/04/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	0.965	1.03	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.965	0.92	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold
02/04/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.965	1.23	Buy
02/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.955	1	Hold
02/08/19	CLSA	Singapore Post	0.955	1.17	Buy
04/04/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.995	1	Hold
04/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.03	1.2	Add	DCF, PER18.2x FY21
05/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	1.01	1	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.01	1.17	Add	DCF
05/08/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	1.01	0.96	Hold	DCF
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.99	1.06	Hold	Buy @ $0.95

Singapore O&G - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.34	0.42	Buy
02/21/19	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.355	0	Cease Coverage

Singapore Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.4	0.56	Buy
02/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.47	0.65	Buy	PER23x FY19
02/21/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.47	0.54	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.445	0.62	Buy	PER23x FY19
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.445	0.48	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.385	0.48	Neutral	DCF
06/07/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.38	0.48	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 25 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/25/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy
06/25/19	OCBC	ART	1.3	1.25	Hold
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.6	2.4	Hold
06/25/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Buy
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.675	0.8	Buy
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.59	2.6	Buy
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.18	2.25	Buy
06/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.28	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.79	0.9	Buy
06/25/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.86	29.2	Buy
06/25/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	17.3	0	Hold

Silverlake - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.415	0.65	Buy	DCF
01/03/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.405	0.6	Buy	PER21x FY19
01/07/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.425	0.62	Buy	PER21x FY19
02/01/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.485	0.65	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.515	0.62	Buy	PER21x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.57	0.62	Add	Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.555	0.65	Buy	DCF
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.61	0.65	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.52	0.63	Buy	PER21x FY19
05/16/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.52	0.58	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.53	0.65	Buy	DCF