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Sunday, September 8, 2019

When will China reduce its interest rates?

When the US and the rest of the world are in a rate-cutting frenzy, China cannot alienate itself and hold its rates perpetually.  Thus, it is a question of when will China do it instead.

In order for our readers to understand this better, it is best that the readers read and understand the rationale and logic of China not reducing its interest rates at this moment.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

What had  China done insofar to stimulate its economy after the US cut the FED rates?

China had implemented the new LPR and reduced the RRR.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-is-renminbi-rmb-depreciating-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/china-has-just-cut-banks-rrr-by-50bp.html

Please read our post on RRR to understand its impact.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html

China does not have runaway inflation, so China can afford to cut its interest rates.  However, China is not doing it now. Why?

If you think that China doesn't cut its interest rates because of its simmering inflation, then I must say that you are wrong because you do not understand China's economic structure well enough.

The properties constitute a large part of the people's assets and the property sector is the Achilles heel of China.  Therefore, any disruption to the property sector will disrupt the economy severely.

As we can see, China has been trying to avoid any disruption to the property sector by implementing LPR and reducing RRR instead of cutting its interest rates because these 2 policies have minimal impacts on the property sector.

China will only cut its interest rates after it has figured out how to rein in the property prices with new property policies and measures because cutting the interest rates will create a buying frenzy to inflate the property prices.  A skyrocketing property market will create social unrest and China is trying to maintain stability in the country.

Saturday, September 7, 2019

Baltic dry index - 2462

Today, Friday, September 06 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 37 points, reaching 2462 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 898

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The Hong Kong protest continues after HK CE's telecast.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protesters-aim-stress-test-airport-210048026.html

We had already stated that the HK protest would not end because the protestors were paid to protest.  Those protestors are not interested in the extradition bill because it is never the goal of their protests.  Their goal is to make quick money out of these protests.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-rejected-hk-ces.html

We hate to be right in our analysis for this kind of situation.

China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp!

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3026064/china-cuts-banks-reserve-requirements-latest-effort-boost

China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp to stimulate its economy.

Many analysts had expected China to cut its interest rates to stimulate its economy and they were proven to be wrong when China didn't do as they concluded.  We had stated in June 2019 that China wouldn't cut its interest rates but would reduce its RRR further.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/will-china-cut-its-bank-interest-rates.html

Please read our economic analysis in June to understand the rationale for China not to cut its interest rates.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Friday, September 6, 2019

Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates in September 2019?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-fed-has-cut-interest-rate-by-025.html

We got it right when we predicted a US FED rate cut in July by analyzing the 4 important rates in US.

Let's do it again to see what will happen in September 2019.

Iorr: 2.10% (Falling), Max is 2.25% as set by the FED.


Effr: 2.13% (Falling)


Ioer: 2.10% (Falling)


On RRP: 2%

The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 2% to 2.25% currently.

Effr: 2.13% (Loan rate offered by FED to US bank)
Ioer: 2.10% (Deposit rate offered by FED to US bank for the excess fund)

The spread between Effr and Ioer denotes the monetary supply condition in the US banking system.  In other words, the lesser the spread, the looser the monetary supply and vice versa.  A shrinking spread describes an easing while a widening spread describes a tightening condition.  This spread has not widened which means that there is no monetary tightening in the US.  However, the 10-year treasury yield (risk-free rate) is only around 1.5% currently which is below the Ioer (2.1%).  Thus, the US FED has to cut its rates to make the Ioer less attractive to the banks in order to stimulate the economy.

Please read the post below to understand the 4 interest rates better.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

The falling rates are signaling that the US FED is likely to cut rates again for it to stay relevant.  Furthermore, the US FED is being held hostage by Trump and wall street to cut rates now.  Therefore, the US Fed has no choice now, especially the PMI is weakening.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

If the US Fed dares to defy Trump and Wall Street, the stock markets will crash.  I don't see the US Fed having the guts or gumption to fight for its independence and risk crashing the stock markets by putting the rates on hold.

Penguin - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/26/19 phillip Penguin 0.45 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19 phillip Penguin 0.44 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19 CIMB Penguin 0.445 0.72 Add PB1x FY19
08/07/19 phillip Penguin 0.495 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.8 3.1 Buy
03/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.88 3.25 Buy DDM
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.92 3.25 Buy DDM
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.89 3.25 Buy
07/31/19 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 3.06 0 Hold
08/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 3.06 3.25 Buy
08/01/19 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 3.06 3.35 Buy

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date
Analyst
Company
Last
Target
Call
Valuation
03/04/19
Lim & Tan
Pacific Century
0.385
0
Buy

Stock calls for 6 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/06/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.51 4 Buy
09/06/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.142 0.26 Buy DCF
09/06/19 DBS Vickers CSE Global 0.47 0.65 Buy PER12x FY20
09/06/19 DMG & Partners DBS 24.63 25.3 Neutral GGM, PB1.23x FY20
09/06/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.22 0.17 Hold
09/06/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Pacific 0.74 0.88 Buy DDM

Thursday, September 5, 2019

The US-China trade war is not subsiding.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-imposes-duties-on-structural-steel-from-china--mexico-11874126

The US has imposed duties on China's structural steel.

China has to recognize that the US cannot be trusted and will renege on its promises like a thug. 

There is no need to be a gentleman when it comes to dealing with the US because the US will not show any goodwill gesture prior to the October meeting.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-china-trade-talk-is-deferred-to.html


PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.183 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.173 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy
06/13/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy RNAV (45% discount)

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/23/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.33 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.3 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 Lim & Tan Overseas Edu 0.3 0.48 Buy DDM & DCF
08/19/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.285 0.46 Buy

Stock calls for 5 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/05/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.49 0 Accumulate
09/05/19 phillip DBS 24.54 27.6 Accumulate
09/05/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.71 14.48 Buy GGM
09/05/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.455 0.56 Buy DCF
09/05/19 phillip UOB 25.1 28.6 Accumulate

The HK protestors have rejected the HK CE's pacification.

Just as we expected, the HK protectors have rejected her compromise and pacification.

The HK protestors are paid to protest and they will not accept any favourable outcome even if the government relented.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html

They claimed the relentment came too little and too late but they never thought that late was better than never.  Eventually, they will push themselves into a corner and regret this later.

The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-u-hold-trade-talks-014856242.html

The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019 from September 2019.  Will the October meeting take place?  The US will impose another set of tariffs on 1 October and China will definitely retaliate against that.

The US has to end this trade war fast because its bleak economic numbers are showing up in the PMI now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

The weakening PMI will cause the GDP number to dive and Trump has to stop the hemorrhage before he loses his election.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Latest HK Chief Executive's telecast.

Is she doing enough to end the HK protests?

No!  This is because she is not eradicating the root cause of the problems (protests).  This uprising of the Hongkongers is engineered by the US, UK and Taiwan.  She must uproot those paid lackeys to end the protests.  The protestors don't even understand what they're protesting.  Therefore, it is useless to pacify the protestors as they will keep shifting their goal poles.

Cathy Pacific is a high risk airliner! Fly at your own risk!

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025421/cathay-pacific-suspends-cabin-crew-two-flights-found

Cathy Pacific employees committed a terrorist act by depleting the oxygen bottles.

Cathy Pacific chairman has resigned after the terrorist act was committed by his employees.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hong-kong-cathay-pacific-chairman-resigns-11872184

We had warned about a flight risk with Cathy Pacific previously in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/cathy-pacific-suspends-ticket-sales-at.html

China is right to scrutinize Cathy Pacific employees flying in and out of China airspace.

Hot news! Singapore general election is coming!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pm-lee-convenes-electoral-boundaries-review-committee-091256644.html

It looks like SG GE is coming in a few months time according to the historical record.

Why?

This is because the economy will be so bad next year that there will be more opposition voices.

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 Soochow SSD OUE Lippo HC 0.066 0.088 Buy Sum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.67 0.85 Add DDM
01/16/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.685 0.79 Buy
01/30/19 DBS Vickers OUE Hospitality 0.695 0.85 Buy DCF
01/31/19 OCBC OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.82 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.77 Buy
04/09/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.735 0.76 Take Profit Accept offer
04/09/19 DBS Vickers OUE Hospitality 0.735 0.85 Buy
04/10/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.725 0.85 Add
05/03/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.72 0.85 Add
06/06/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.68 0.76 Take Profit
07/04/19 DMG & Partners OUE Hospitality 0.72 0.76 Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/31/19 OCBC OUE Commercial 0.49 0.5 Hold
01/31/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.49 0.6 Buy DCF
02/04/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.515 0.57 Hold
02/08/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.51 0.6 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.52 0.6 Buy
04/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.51 0.57 Hold
05/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.5 0.57 Hold

Stock calls for 4 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/04/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.65 0.67 Neutral Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7.64x
09/04/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.46 2.59 Hold
09/04/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.455 0.65 Buy PER15x FY19
09/04/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.455 0.69 Buy DCF, PER11.9x FY20
09/04/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.8 3.89 Hold DCF

The Hong Kong protestors are daft youngsters.

The HK stock market goes up almost 1,000 points today because the HK government is expected to announce the withdrawal of the extradition bill.

The HK protestors are daft youngsters because they exude stupidity beyond my comprehension.  Why?

HK Lam announced that the extradition bill was dead in July 2019 which meant that it couldn't be resuscitated.  In other words, she meant it to be scrapped and gave the protestors more than what they had bargained for.  The law is very specific and must not be a subject of contention.  However, the protestors didn't understand the legality of the term and insisted on withdrawal in which the bill could be reintroduced in the future.  This is the stupidity that I cannot comprehend.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-protests-carrie-lam-extradition-bill-dead-withdraw-11703542

The HK protestors had shortchanged themselves unknowingly and the stock investors joined in without a proper understanding of the legal term.

By withdrawing the bill, the HK government can rehash and reintroduce the bill later and this will create an overhang among the protestors.  Therefore, the HK protests won't stop even after this withdrawal announcement.

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in August 2019.

The ISM PMI is in a contraction mode now at 49.1 and this is lower than China's PMI (49.5).  China's PMI is at the doldrum already and is ready to expand soon but the US PMI is still sliding after 5 consecutive months.

The US was unable to export to China because of the high tariffs and this caused the new export order to decline further.  However, the frontloading by the US consumers prior to the 1 Sept tariffs was helping to hold up the new local order.  I don't see the rise to be sustainable as consumer demand is elastic.

The reduction in new orders is causing declines in customers' inventories, production, employment and supplier's deliveries.

The high tariffs were affecting imports and the producers were turning to local raw materials which were cheaper.

This is a very bad PMI report as many sub-indexes are in the red.  The next GDP figure will be very bad despite the US recent revision to 2% from 2.1%.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in-july.html

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

OUE - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 OCBC OUE 1.66 2.32 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC OUE 1.79 2.32 Buy

OCBC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 CIMB OCBC 11.1 14 Add PER10.8x FY20
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.03 14.05 Buy
01/08/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.37 13.82 Buy
01/31/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.39 10.95 Hold DDM
02/01/19 phillip OCBC 11.51 13.7 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.49 13.82 Buy
02/13/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.41 10.95 Hold
02/25/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12 Hold PB1.2x CY19
02/25/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 13.85 Buy
02/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.39 12.9 Buy GGM, PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.39 10.73 Hold DDM
02/27/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.2 13 Outperform PB
03/04/19 phillip OCBC 11.1 13.7 Buy
03/07/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.22 10.73 Hold
03/11/19 CIMB OCBC 11.05 12 Hold
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.99 13.85 Buy
04/02/19 phillip OCBC 11.21 13.7 Buy
04/02/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.21 12.9 Buy
04/11/19 CIMB OCBC 11.72 12 Hold
04/22/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.77 12.2 Neutral PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/23/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.78 10.73 Hold
04/24/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.83 14.12 Buy GGM, PB1.39x FY19
05/03/19 phillip OCBC 12.04 13.7 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.31 12.2 Neutral PB1.12x FY20
05/10/19 CIMB OCBC 11.31 12 Hold
05/13/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.39 13 Outperform
05/13/19 phillip OCBC 11.39 12.68 Accumulate GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 14.62 Buy GGM, PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.26x
05/22/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.09 11.07 Hold
06/03/19 CIMB OCBC 10.57 12.59 Hold
06/06/19 phillip OCBC 10.63 12.7 Accumulate
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.8 14.62 Buy
06/17/19 Kim Eng OCBC 10.78 11.07 Hold
06/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.28 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
07/01/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.4 14.62 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.59 11.07 Hold
07/03/19 phillip OCBC 11.54 12.7 Accumulate
07/08/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.39 12.2 Neutral GGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.64 11.5 Hold
08/02/19 Lim & Tan OCBC 11.42 0 Buy on weakness
08/05/19 phillip OCBC 11.21 12.5 Accumulate GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.21 11.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.21 14.48 Buy GGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.21 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19 CIMB OCBC 11.08 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.08 11.05 Hold DDM
08/20/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 10.71 11.5 Neutral GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19 CIMB OCBC 10.69 12.53 Hold
09/02/19 phillip OCBC 10.65 12.32 Accumulate GGM

Netlink - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.765 0.99 Buy DCF
01/02/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.765 0.93 Buy
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.77 0.87 Buy DCF
02/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.785 0.93 Buy DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.79 0.87 Buy DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.79 0.99 Buy
02/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.805 0.92 Buy DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19 OCBC Netlink 0.805 0.9 Buy
03/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.795 0.9 Buy
03/27/19 Phillip Netlink 0.825 0.89 Accumulate DCF
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.83 0.92 Buy
04/01/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy
05/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.825 0.92 Buy DCF
05/09/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.82 0.87 Buy
05/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.835 0.95 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.835 0.9 Buy DCF
05/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.835 0.93 Accumulate DCF
05/15/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.835 0.94 Buy DDM
06/03/19 Phillip Netlink 0.83 0.93 Buy DCF
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.825 0.9 Buy
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.835 0.97 Buy
06/27/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.89 0.94 Buy
07/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.88 0.93 Accumulate DCF
07/17/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.885 0.94 Buy
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.88 0.92 Buy DCF
08/06/19 Phillip Netlink 0.88 0.93 Accumulate DCF
08/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.865 0.94 Buy DDM
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.865 0.95 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 3 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/03/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.665 0.71 Neutral
09/03/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.44 0 Buy
09/03/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.59 1.6 Neutral PER15x FY20
09/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.16 1.22 Hold
09/03/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.16 1.63 Buy PB1.48x FY20
09/03/19 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.55 0.58 Accept offer

Monday, September 2, 2019

Nera Telecom - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Nera Telecom 0.285 0 Buy

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.06 0.11 Buy
02/13/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.082 0.11 Buy DCF
03/05/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.077 0.11 Buy DCF
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.081 0.095 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.076 0.1 Buy
08/20/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.068 0.083 Buy DCF

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/14/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.3 0.33 Hold Sum of parts
02/21/19 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.3 0.37 Add Sum of parts
02/21/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.3 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
03/26/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.315 0.34 Buy PEG0.93x
05/31/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.24 0.34 Buy Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.245 0.26 Hold
07/19/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.23 0.34 Buy PER16x FY20
08/15/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.197 0.29 Buy Sum of parts
08/20/19 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.186 0.2 Hold PEG1x