Stock calls for 29 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	AEM	1.71	2.38	Buy	PER12.1x FY20
11/29/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	5.93	5.4	Reduce	PER22x CY20
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.905	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
11/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.235	0.295	Buy
11/29/19	Morgan Stanley	Thai Beverage	0.865	1.08	Overweight
11/29/19	Nomura	Thai Beverage	0.865	1.04	Buy
11/29/19	JP Morgan	Thai Beverage	0.865	1	Overweight
11/29/19	Credit Suisse	Thai Beverage	0.865	0.9	Neutral
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.89	1.08	Buy	PER14x FY20

Netlink - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.765	0.99	Buy	DCF
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.765	0.93	Buy
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.77	0.87	Buy	DCF
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.785	0.93	Buy	DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.79	0.87	Buy	DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.79	0.99	Buy
02/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.805	0.92	Buy	DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.805	0.9	Buy
03/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.795	0.9	Buy
03/27/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.825	0.89	Accumulate	DCF
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.83	0.92	Buy
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy
05/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.825	0.92	Buy	DCF
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.87	Buy
05/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.835	0.95	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.835	0.9	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.835	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
05/15/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.835	0.94	Buy	DDM
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.825	0.9	Buy
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.835	0.97	Buy
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.89	0.94	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.885	0.94	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.865	0.95	Buy	DCF
10/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.9	1.01	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.91	0.93	Accumulate
10/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.9	1.03	Buy	DDM
10/18/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.91	0.95	Buy
11/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.935	1.01	Buy	DCF
11/04/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.935	0.99	Accumulate	DCF
11/05/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.955	1.03	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.955	1.04	Buy	DCF
11/05/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.955	1.06	Buy

Nera Telecom - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Nera Telecom	0.285	0	Buy

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.06	0.11	Buy
02/13/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.082	0.11	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.077	0.11	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.081	0.095	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.076	0.1	Buy
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.065	0.08	Buy

Stock calls for 28 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.375	0.44	Buy	PER20.3x FY20
11/28/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral	DCF

The US and Australia are using a China fraudster to smear China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-media-releases-court-footage-002549916.html

China is a rule of law country unlike what the west has alleged about China being a country of jailing people without a fair trial.  The fact is China has a fair judiciary system whereby it records its court proceeding and also will do a live court telecast of a controversial case when necessary.

The US and Australia are embarking on a silly smearing campaign against China by fabricating some antics about China.

The latest US GDP growth is not reflecting the actual economic situation.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-grew-faster-q3-213420576.html

The US Q3 GDP growth at 2.1% is not reflecting the actual economic growth as compared to the PMI numbers.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-us-pmi-is-still-contracting-in.html


Let me illustrate how the headline number can fool you by looking at the example below.

GDP = G + I + C + (X-M)
GDP = 1 + 1 + 1 + (1-1)
= 3

Then, the actual economic conditions deteriorate with Consumption decreasing by 20% and M(imports) decreasing by 50% while the rest are stagnant.

GDP = 1 + 1 + 0.8 + (1-0.5)
= 3.3

The GDP has increased by 10% from 3 to 3.3 when the consumption and imports are falling because of economic deterioration. Thus, the headline GDP number is not reflecting the actual economic situation.

The fissure between the US and China is getting bigger.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-signs-bills-support-hong-234627290.html

Trump has infuriated China by signing the HK human rights bill.  Will this affect the US-China trade deal? Yes!

China will definitely retaliate but the severity of the backlash is unknown.

The US is interfering in China's internal affairs by administering HK with this HK human rights bill.

What is Hong Kong's future now?

The last battlefield is about to end in HK.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039591/hong-kong-police-mull-entering-besieged-campus-warrant

We had stated that the besieged campus would be the last battlefield (see below post) because the HK protestors could not organize a large mass protest anymore.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/ordinary-hk-citizens-are-fighting-back.html

So what's next for HK?

The recent electoral victory by the HK pro-democracy supporters has created more uncertainties for HK because it may lose the support of China.

Many analysts still think that China needs HK for foreign capital since HK is a financial hub.  However, the truth is the exact opposite because China allows HK to be a financial hub instead.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

HK is a financial hub which is a symptom of China's political interest in HK.  An analogy to put this across more clearly is fever is the symptom of an infection and fever doesn't cause infection but infection causes fever to surface.  Therefore, HK's financial hub is a "fever" symptom.

In retrospect, China doesn't need HK as a springboard for foreign entities to inject funds into China.  Just look at our Suzhou Industrial park (SIP) project.  Did SG develop the SIP via HK? No!

How about our recent tie-up with Chongqing?  We also didn't go through HK.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3026767/singapore-and-chongqing-seal-deals-trade-telecoms-and-ties

Tesla also didn't go through HK to set up its factory in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_3

Does China need HK to raise funds? No!  China can go to the EU to raise funds easily because its bonds are well received in the EU.  Therefore, HK doesn't have any financial merit for China other than for political interest.

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.33	Hold	Sum of parts
02/21/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.37	Add	Sum of parts
02/21/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
03/26/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.315	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
05/31/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.24	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.245	0.26	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
08/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.197	0.29	Buy	Sum of parts
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG1x
10/09/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.215	0.32	Add	Sum of parts
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.285	0.3	Hold	Sum of parts, PER12.8x FY20

MIT - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/27/19	Lim & Tan	MIT	0.36	0.405	Buy	Mid-point of $0.4-0.41

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.655	0.87	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.66	0.83	Buy	DCF
08/27/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.525	0.83	Buy

Stock calls for 27 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/27/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.84	0.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB0.62x FY19
11/27/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.37	0.47	Buy	PER23x FY20
11/27/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.37	0.47	Add

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.67	1.7	Accumulate	PER15x FY19
05/02/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.63	1.63	Neutral	PER15x FY20
09/03/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.59	1.6	Neutral	PER15x FY20
11/05/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.9	1.6	Reduce

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.06	Sell	Sum of parts
03/19/19	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.158	Hold	PB0.48x CY18

Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.03	0	Buy on weakness
02/28/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.03	1.08	Hold	PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	Buy	PER11x FY19
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35

Stock calls for 26 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	BRC Asia	1.49	1.75	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
11/26/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
11/26/19	Amfrasers	EC World Reit	0.74	0.84	outperform	DDM
11/26/19	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.82	0	Hold
11/26/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.85	3	Buy
11/26/19	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.89	0.8	Reduce	Sum of parts
11/26/19	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.89	0.91	Hold

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.35	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
02/09/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.31	1.45	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.45	1.65	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.38	1.43	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.42	1.5	Add	DDM
08/14/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.28	1.43	Buy
09/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.33	1.65	Buy	DCF
10/29/19	Lim & Tan	Mapletree North Asia	1.26	0	Hold
10/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF
10/31/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.43	Buy
11/12/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.23	1.6	Buy

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.26	1.42	Add	DDM
01/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.33	1.39	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.4	Buy
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.3	Hold	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.44	Add	DDM
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.3	Hold
03/07/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.42	1.5	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.44	1.45	Hold
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.4	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.48	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.47	1.38	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.26
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.5	1.6	Buy
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.85	Buy
07/23/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.4	Hold
07/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.55	Hold
07/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.6	1.39	Hold	DDM
09/18/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.58	1.85	Buy
10/22/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.66	1.6	Hold
10/22/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.66	1.41	Hold
10/22/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.66	1.55	Hold	DDM
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.69	1.9	Buy

Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.97	2.04	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.1	Add	DDM
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	2.22	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
01/23/19	DIR	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	1.78	Underperform
01/24/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.03	Neutral	DDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.2	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	1.94	Hold	Buy @ $1.78
02/12/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	2.04	Hold
02/15/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.03	Neutral
02/19/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	1.98	Hold
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.3	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.12	2.3	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.11	2.25	Buy	DDM
06/19/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.17	2.03	Neutral
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.18	2.25	Buy
07/11/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	2.29	2.32	Add	DDM
07/11/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.29	2.4	Buy	DDM
07/11/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.29	2.5	Buy	DCF
07/22/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.31	2.03	Neutral	DDM, PB1.36x FY19
07/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.3	2.06	Hold
07/24/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	2.3	2.37	Hold
07/25/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.25	2.29	Hold
07/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.25	1.94	Hold
08/26/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.28	2.03	Neutral
09/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.3	2.58	Buy	DDM
09/17/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.33	2.29	Hold
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.4	2.5	Buy
09/19/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.4	2.55	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.47	2.03	Neutral
09/25/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.49	2.75	Buy
09/26/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	2.49	2.44	Add	DDM
10/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.5	2.69	Buy
10/18/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.57	2.06	Neutral
10/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.52	2.55	Hold
10/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.52	2.9	Buy
10/24/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.52	2.75	Buy
11/21/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.5	2.7	Buy
11/25/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.51	2.03	Neutral

Stock calls for 25 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/25/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.94	3.31	Accumulate
11/25/19	CIMB	AEM	1.8	2.12	Add
11/25/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
11/25/19	CIMB	Boustead	0.765	1	Add
11/25/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.71	0.75	Neutral
11/25/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.99	2.18	Neutral
11/25/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.66	4.15	Add
11/25/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.49	2.68	Neutral
11/25/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.66	Accumulate
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.58	1.8	Buy
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.78	11	Hold
11/25/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.54	0.73	Add
11/25/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.84	0.94	Accumulate
11/25/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.76	3.11	Accumulate
11/25/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.76	2.89	Add
11/25/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	2.01	2.06	Accumulate
11/25/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.51	2.03	Neutral
11/25/19	CIMB	Propnex	0.515	0.68	Add
11/25/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.06	6.1	Buy
11/25/19	phillip	SGX	8.97	8.6	Neutral	PER22x
11/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.89	0.9	Hold
11/25/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.89	0.95	Neutral	Sum of parts
11/25/19	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.89	1	Add
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.89	1.04	Buy	Sum of parts
11/25/19	CIMB	Wilmar	4.1	4.58	Add
11/25/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.02	1.45	Add

What has China done to stimulate its economy and its impacts?

China has been cutting its RRR in 2019 to boost its money supply.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html

China has implemented a new LPR to be used as a new benchmark for commercial loans (SMEs).  This is meant to boost bank lending, a.k.a, money supply to business owners.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-is-renminbi-rmb-depreciating-again.html

China has just implemented a property measure to keep its property prices at bay to prevent any disruption to its economy.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/when-will-china-reduce-its-interest.

China has cut its MLF for the first time since 2016 to boost money supply to financial institutions.  This, in turn, will lower the LPR because it is pegged to MLF.  Again, this will boost the money supply to business owners.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/china-has-cut-its-loan-rate-finally.html

China has cut its 7-day repo rate for the first time since 2015.  The repo facility is a short-term sale and repurchase agreement (borrowing), issued by the government (central bank) with mainly government securities.  Therefore any repo rate cut will discourage buying by financial investors and keep cash in the economy.  In other words, this is to maintain the money supply and prevent a monetary tightening situation in the economy without injecting new cash into the economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-openmarket-omo/china-cuts-key-liquidity-rate-for-first-time-since-2015-idUSKBN1XS04E

China has cut the 5-year LPR for the first time and this will affect the property sector since the 5-year LPR is used as a benchmark for the property loans.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-lpr/china-cuts-new-benchmark-lending-rate-to-lower-costs-shore-up-economy-idUSKBN1XU05H

From these monetary actions, we can see that China is maintaining the existing money supply and injecting new money supply into its economy to stimulate some growth.  Furthermore, China is willing to encourage some growth in its property sector by tweaking its LPR.

Baltic dry index - 1284

Today, Friday, November 22 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 29 points, reaching 1284 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 803

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.