The November ISM PMI has declined again.

-->

The prices paid increased to 46.7 from 45.5 because the producers reduced local raw material and imported more from abroad.  The PMI decreased to 48.1 and was in contraction mode for 4 consecutive months.

The new order decreased because of a reduction in new export order.  The previous new export order (significant increment) was just an aberration.  The reduction in customers’ inventories was due to the fulfillment of the existing orders and, thus, the backlog of order also decreased.  The producers still increased  their production by 2.9 so that they could continue to increase the customers’ inventories to fulfill existing orders.  However, the manufacturing employment deteriorated and this was a big concern because it could reflect the overall employment in the US (see chart below).  This reduction in employment meant that the producers were not very optimistic about their businesses and the willingness to hire and train workers declined.

In conclusion, the de-Americanization in China supply china was hurting the US manufacturing industry and the USA’s anti-China stance was helping China to expand its manufacturing industry.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/china-pmi-had-expanded-as-we-had.html

China PMI had expanded as we had predicted.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201912/t20191202_1712936.html

We predicted in September 2019 (See below) that China PMI would expand soon and it really did in November 2019.  Why were we so confident?

Well, our rationale was very simple.  It was the US's anti-China stance that caused China's PMI to be in an expansionary mode.  How come?  The US's anti-China stance caused the de-americanization in China's supply chain which caused the local manufacturing industry to ramp up production to replace the US supplies.  Therefore, this increment would be reflected in China's PMI eventually and this growth would just be a matter of time.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.67	0.85	Add	DDM
01/16/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.79	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.85	Buy	DCF
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.82	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.77	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.76	Take Profit	Accept offer
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.85	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.76	Take Profit
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.76	Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.5	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.6	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.52	0.6	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.57	Hold
05/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.5	0.57	Hold
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.59	Buy
10/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.61	Hold
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.6	Buy	DCF
11/19/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.535	Hold
11/19/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.57	Hold	DDM

Stock calls for 2 December 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.7	0.67	Outperform
12/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.855	0.99	Outperform	DDM
12/02/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.68	4.2	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
12/02/19	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.68	4.2	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
12/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitaland	3.68	3.8	Hold
12/02/19	Amfrasers	China Sunsine	1.03	1.2	Outperform	DCF
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Comfortdelgro	2.35	2.61	Outperform	PER19x FY20
12/02/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.525	0.61	Outperform	Sum of parts
12/02/19	CIMB	DBS	25.25	28.29	Hold
12/02/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.25	29.92	Buy
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Eagle Hospitality Trust	0.525	0.61	outperform	DDM
12/02/19	Amfrasers	EC World Reit	0.745	0.84	outperform	DDM
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.89	0.93	outperform	PER10x FY20
12/02/19	Amfrasers	IFS Capital	0.23	0.3	Outperform	PB0.6x FY20
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.46	Neutral
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.965	1.03	outperform
12/02/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.78	11.94	Hold
12/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.26	Hold
12/02/19	CIMB	UOB	25.82	29.1	Add
12/02/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.82	30.5	Buy

Baltic dry index - 1528

Today, Friday, November 29 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 61 points, reaching 1528 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 802

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

OUE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	OCBC	OUE	1.66	2.32	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	OUE	1.79	2.32	Buy
11/21/19	OCBC	OUE	1.49	1.69	Buy

Olam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/26/19	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.82	0	Hold

OCBC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.1	14	Add	PER10.8x FY20
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.05	Buy
01/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.37	13.82	Buy
01/31/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.39	10.95	Hold	DDM
02/01/19	phillip	OCBC	11.51	13.7	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.49	13.82	Buy
02/13/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.41	10.95	Hold
02/25/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12	Hold	PB1.2x CY19
02/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	13.85	Buy
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.39	12.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.39	10.73	Hold	DDM
02/27/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.2	13	Outperform	PB
03/04/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	13.7	Buy
03/07/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.22	10.73	Hold
03/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.05	12	Hold
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.99	13.85	Buy
04/02/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	13.7	Buy
04/02/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	12.9	Buy
04/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.72	12	Hold
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.77	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/23/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.78	10.73	Hold
04/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.83	14.12	Buy	GGM, PB1.39x FY19
05/03/19	phillip	OCBC	12.04	13.7	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.31	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20
05/10/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.31	12	Hold
05/13/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.39	13	Outperform
05/13/19	phillip	OCBC	11.39	12.68	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	14.62	Buy	GGM, PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.26x
05/22/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.09	11.07	Hold
06/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.57	12.59	Hold
06/06/19	phillip	OCBC	10.63	12.7	Accumulate
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.8	14.62	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.28	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.4	14.62	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.59	11.07	Hold
07/03/19	phillip	OCBC	11.54	12.7	Accumulate
07/08/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.39	12.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.64	11.5	Hold
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.42	0	Buy on weakness
08/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	12.5	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.21	11.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.21	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.08	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.05	Hold	DDM
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.69	12.53	Hold
09/02/19	phillip	OCBC	10.65	12.32	Accumulate	GGM
09/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.71	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
09/26/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.77	11.05	Neutral
09/26/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.77	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
09/27/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.82	12.53	Hold
10/04/19	phillip	OCBC	10.71	12.32	Accumulate
10/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.86	14.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
10/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Hold
11/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.07	12.32	Accumulate
11/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.07	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.08x FY20
11/05/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.07	0	Buy
11/06/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.08	12.4	Outperform	PB
11/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.26	Hold	DDM
11/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.08	14.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
11/06/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.08	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
11/07/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	11.7	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.1x

Stock calls for 29 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	AEM	1.71	2.38	Buy	PER12.1x FY20
11/29/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	5.93	5.4	Reduce	PER22x CY20
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.905	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
11/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.235	0.295	Buy
11/29/19	Morgan Stanley	Thai Beverage	0.865	1.08	Overweight
11/29/19	Nomura	Thai Beverage	0.865	1.04	Buy
11/29/19	JP Morgan	Thai Beverage	0.865	1	Overweight
11/29/19	Credit Suisse	Thai Beverage	0.865	0.9	Neutral
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.89	1.08	Buy	PER14x FY20

Netlink - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.765	0.99	Buy	DCF
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.765	0.93	Buy
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.77	0.87	Buy	DCF
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.785	0.93	Buy	DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.79	0.87	Buy	DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.79	0.99	Buy
02/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.805	0.92	Buy	DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.805	0.9	Buy
03/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.795	0.9	Buy
03/27/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.825	0.89	Accumulate	DCF
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.83	0.92	Buy
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy
05/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.825	0.92	Buy	DCF
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.87	Buy
05/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.835	0.95	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.835	0.9	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.835	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
05/15/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.835	0.94	Buy	DDM
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.825	0.9	Buy
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.835	0.97	Buy
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.89	0.94	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.885	0.94	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.865	0.95	Buy	DCF
10/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.9	1.01	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.91	0.93	Accumulate
10/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.9	1.03	Buy	DDM
10/18/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.91	0.95	Buy
11/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.935	1.01	Buy	DCF
11/04/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.935	0.99	Accumulate	DCF
11/05/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.955	1.03	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.955	1.04	Buy	DCF
11/05/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.955	1.06	Buy

Nera Telecom - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Nera Telecom	0.285	0	Buy

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.06	0.11	Buy
02/13/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.082	0.11	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.077	0.11	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.081	0.095	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.076	0.1	Buy
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.065	0.08	Buy

Stock calls for 28 November 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.375	0.44	Buy	PER20.3x FY20
11/28/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral	DCF

The US and Australia are using a China fraudster to smear China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-media-releases-court-footage-002549916.html

China is a rule of law country unlike what the west has alleged about China being a country of jailing people without a fair trial.  The fact is China has a fair judiciary system whereby it records its court proceeding and also will do a live court telecast of a controversial case when necessary.

The US and Australia are embarking on a silly smearing campaign against China by fabricating some antics about China.

The latest US GDP growth is not reflecting the actual economic situation.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-grew-faster-q3-213420576.html

The US Q3 GDP growth at 2.1% is not reflecting the actual economic growth as compared to the PMI numbers.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-us-pmi-is-still-contracting-in.html


Let me illustrate how the headline number can fool you by looking at the example below.

GDP = G + I + C + (X-M)
GDP = 1 + 1 + 1 + (1-1)
= 3

Then, the actual economic conditions deteriorate with Consumption decreasing by 20% and M(imports) decreasing by 50% while the rest are stagnant.

GDP = 1 + 1 + 0.8 + (1-0.5)
= 3.3

The GDP has increased by 10% from 3 to 3.3 when the consumption and imports are falling because of economic deterioration. Thus, the headline GDP number is not reflecting the actual economic situation.

The fissure between the US and China is getting bigger.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-signs-bills-support-hong-234627290.html

Trump has infuriated China by signing the HK human rights bill.  Will this affect the US-China trade deal? Yes!

China will definitely retaliate but the severity of the backlash is unknown.

The US is interfering in China's internal affairs by administering HK with this HK human rights bill.

What is Hong Kong's future now?

The last battlefield is about to end in HK.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039591/hong-kong-police-mull-entering-besieged-campus-warrant

We had stated that the besieged campus would be the last battlefield (see below post) because the HK protestors could not organize a large mass protest anymore.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/ordinary-hk-citizens-are-fighting-back.html

So what's next for HK?

The recent electoral victory by the HK pro-democracy supporters has created more uncertainties for HK because it may lose the support of China.

Many analysts still think that China needs HK for foreign capital since HK is a financial hub.  However, the truth is the exact opposite because China allows HK to be a financial hub instead.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

HK is a financial hub which is a symptom of China's political interest in HK.  An analogy to put this across more clearly is fever is the symptom of an infection and fever doesn't cause infection but infection causes fever to surface.  Therefore, HK's financial hub is a "fever" symptom.

In retrospect, China doesn't need HK as a springboard for foreign entities to inject funds into China.  Just look at our Suzhou Industrial park (SIP) project.  Did SG develop the SIP via HK? No!

How about our recent tie-up with Chongqing?  We also didn't go through HK.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3026767/singapore-and-chongqing-seal-deals-trade-telecoms-and-ties

Tesla also didn't go through HK to set up its factory in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_3

Does China need HK to raise funds? No!  China can go to the EU to raise funds easily because its bonds are well received in the EU.  Therefore, HK doesn't have any financial merit for China other than for political interest.

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.33	Hold	Sum of parts
02/21/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.37	Add	Sum of parts
02/21/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
03/26/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.315	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
05/31/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.24	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.245	0.26	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
08/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.197	0.29	Buy	Sum of parts
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG1x
10/09/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.215	0.32	Add	Sum of parts
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.285	0.3	Hold	Sum of parts, PER12.8x FY20