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Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Sasseur - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/20/19Kim EngSasseur0.740.9BuyDDM
02/20/19DBS VickersSasseur0.740.97BuyDCF
04/03/19CIMBSasseur0.780.92Add
06/25/19Kim EngSasseur0.790.9Buy
08/08/19DBS VickersSasseur0.80.97BuyDCF
08/13/19CIMBSasseur0.8050.94AddDDM
10/30/19UOB Kay HianSasseur0.80.97BuyDDM
11/18/19Kim EngSasseur0.8451BuyDDM
11/18/19UOB Kay HianSasseur0.8450.97Buy
11/18/19DBS VickersSasseur0.8450.97Buy
11/20/19CIMBSasseur0.850.94Add
02/21/20CIMBSasseur0.820.85Add
02/24/20DBS VickersSasseur0.8150.93BuyDCF
02/24/20Kim EngSasseur0.8150.95Buy
03/10/20UOB Kay HianSasseur0.730.92BuyDDM

Sanli Env - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
05/06/19TayronaSanli Env0.180.234Overweight

Sabana - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
09/12/19DBS VickersSabana0.4550.48HoldDCF
10/25/19DBS VickersSabana0.4550.48HoldDCF
01/30/20DBS VickersSabana0.460.48HoldDCF

Stock calls for 11 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/11/20AmfrasersIFS Capital0.20.3Outperform
03/11/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Corp5.77.6BuySum of parts
03/11/20AmfrasersKeppel DC Reit2.382.19Neutral
03/11/20JefferiesOCBC9.7211Buy
03/11/20CIMBValuetronics0.6050.62Hold

We've correctly predicted the end of a good US period by March 2020. So what's next? - Part 3

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/p-global-slashes-oil-price-124113479.html

The S&P credit rating firm is warning about massive credit rating downgrades for oil and gas companies.

We had warned about the impending credit rating downgrades recently.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

We highlighted 3 things recently.

1. FED is short of USD.
The New York Fed expanded its repo funding by injecting cash into the US FED (after our posting).  The New York Fed is both the boss of the US FED and is also a subordinate.

2.  The US treasury department is flushed with cash.

3.  Massive credit rating downgrades are coming.
The first to fire the salvo is the S&P global credit rating firm by targeting the oil and gas companies (after our posting).

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/p-global-slashes-oil-price-124113479.html

Yeah! We're right again!

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/17/19DBS VickersRoxy-Pacific0.4050.39Hold
02/25/19OCBCRoxy-Pacific0.4150.41Hold
04/17/19OCBCRoxy-Pacific0.40.41Hold
05/09/19OCBCRoxy-Pacific0.4050.41Hold
05/10/19DBS VickersRoxy-Pacific0.4050.39HoldRNAV (55% discount)
07/15/19OCBCRoxy-Pacific0.3850.41Hold
08/05/19DBS VickersRoxy-Pacific0.390.39HoldRNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/27/19CIMBRiverstone1.11.22AddPER16.7x FY20
02/27/19DBS VickersRiverstone1.11.19HoldPER16x FY19
05/14/19CIMBRiverstone0.9951.22AddPER16.5x FY20
05/16/19DBS VickersRiverstone0.9751.03HoldPER16.8x FY19/20
08/13/19DBS VickersRiverstone0.91.16BuyPER14.5x FY20
11/11/19CIMBRiverstone0.9851.25Add
11/11/19DBS VickersRiverstone0.9851.16BuyPER14.5x FY20
02/27/20CIMBRiverstone1.051.3Add
02/27/20DBS VickersRiverstone1.051.34BuyPER20x FY20

Rex - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
12/12/19UOB Kay HianRex0.1670.218BuySum of parts, PB1.1x FY20
03/05/20UOB Kay HianRex0.1840.27BuySum of parts

Stock calls for 10 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/10/20Kim EngAEM1.832.82Buy
03/10/20AmfrasersAEM1.832.6OutperformPER12x FY20
03/10/20AmfrasersARA Hospitality0.550.95Outperform
03/10/20DMG & PartnersCache Logistics0.640.74BuyDDM
03/10/20AmfrasersCapitaRetail China1.371.66Outperform
03/10/20phillipClearbridge0.1160.26BuyDCF
03/10/20AmfrasersComfortdelgro1.812.28OutperformPER17.5x FY20
03/10/20phillipDasin Retail0.8050.88AccumulateDDM
03/10/20phillipDBS21.1527.3Accumulate
03/10/20AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.280.51Neutral
03/10/20AmfrasersFrencken0.751.01outperformPER10x FY20
03/10/20CIMBHongkong Land4.556.05Add
03/10/20CIMBJardine Matheson50.1252.53HoldCut from $61.66
03/10/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.981.11Neutral
03/10/20phillipOCBC9.5212.1Accumulate
03/10/20Lim & TanPropnex0.5150.68Buy
03/10/20UOB Kay HianSasseur0.730.92BuyDDM
03/10/20AmfrasersSembcorp Marine0.8951.19Neutral
03/10/20AmfrasersSheng Siong1.211.4Outperform
03/10/20AmfrasersSunpower0.470.91outperformSum of parts
03/10/20AmfrasersThai Beverage0.7550.96Outperform
03/10/20Kim EngUMS0.811.13Buy
03/10/20phillipUOB21.527.8Accumulate

We've correctly predicted the end of a good US period by March 2020. So what's next? - Part 2

We highlighted 3 things recently below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

1. Fed is short of USD.
2. US treasury dept is flushed with cash.
3. Massive credit rating downgrades are coming.

The New York FED is a major shareholder of the US FED and is also one of its 12 subsidiaries.  The New York FED has just expanded its repo market funding to US$150B because the US FED is short of USD.


The risk-free rate (10-year yield) is around 0.5% now which is only half of the on rrp rate but there is no panic in the repo market yet because the repo rate is still within 1% to 1.25% as set by the US FED.


The New York FED is trying to prevent the US FED from doing another inter-meeting rate cut due to the stock market crashes which trigger the circuit breakers.  If the 10-year yield continues to fall closer to Zero, the US FED will have to do another rate cut in its upcoming March meeting.

Monday, March 9, 2020

What's going on for the oil price? Why is the oil price collapsing to US$30 per barrel?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/business/saudi-arabia-oil-prices.html

Don't be deceived by the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are fighting an oil price war with each other.

They are, in fact, collaborating to fight against the US shale oil industry on the pretence that they're fighting against each other.

Russia refused to cut oil output with the aim to gain market share and bring down the oil price to crumble the US shale oil producers.

Saudi Arabia is cutting oil price with the same intention to gain market share and bring down the oil price to crumble the US shale oil producers.

Both acted with a common AIM.

What's a better time to fight the US shale oil industry than now?  Both countries know that the recession constellation is aligning in the US prior to the covid-19 outbreak.  The covid-19 is just the last straw to break the camel's back and both countries capitalize on it to make sure that the inevitable will happen in the US.