Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Monday, September 25, 2017
Japan will dissolve its parliament on Thursday for election.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election/japans-abe-announces-snap-election-amid-worries-over-north-korea-crisis-idUSKCN1C0001
Japan will be having its election on 22 October 2017.
Japan stock market will be range bound for now as nobody is 100% confident that Abe will win in this upcoming election. It may turn out like the Trump presidential election win and the Brexit event.
We can only hope that NK will not test its H-Bomb in the Pacific Ocean as stated by Kim.
Japan will be having its election on 22 October 2017.
Japan stock market will be range bound for now as nobody is 100% confident that Abe will win in this upcoming election. It may turn out like the Trump presidential election win and the Brexit event.
We can only hope that NK will not test its H-Bomb in the Pacific Ocean as stated by Kim.
USA is trying to topple Venezuela government.
The USA is a real troublemaker in the world. It has been trying to topple the Cambodian government but is not successful so far and is targeting Venezuela now.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cia-venezuela-crisis-government-mike-pompeo-helping-install-new-remarks-a7859771.html
One of the successful regime changes implemented by the USA was Ukraine because it spent USD$5B and 10 years in Ukraine. The USA was so proud about it and announced its involvement in public.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-was-behind-ukraine-coup-obama-admits-that-us-brokered-a-deal-in-support-of-regime-change/5429142
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cia-venezuela-crisis-government-mike-pompeo-helping-install-new-remarks-a7859771.html
One of the successful regime changes implemented by the USA was Ukraine because it spent USD$5B and 10 years in Ukraine. The USA was so proud about it and announced its involvement in public.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-was-behind-ukraine-coup-obama-admits-that-us-brokered-a-deal-in-support-of-regime-change/5429142
Sunday, September 24, 2017
PM Lee praised China HSR during his China visit in September 2017.
Just look at the stability of China HSR.
No wonder our PM Lee loves China HSR.
Sino-Singapore relationship is getting cosy!
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0924/c90000-9273013.html
Finally! We are getting cosy with China, beginning with the new round of military exercises.
SG has realized the threats from the BRI and decided to get cosy with China. SG has no choice because TPP is no longer available and our government has to participate in RCEP and BRI.
I hope that China will give the face and political credit to SG by participating in the KL-SG HSR under Singapore invitation.
Finally! We are getting cosy with China, beginning with the new round of military exercises.
SG has realized the threats from the BRI and decided to get cosy with China. SG has no choice because TPP is no longer available and our government has to participate in RCEP and BRI.
I hope that China will give the face and political credit to SG by participating in the KL-SG HSR under Singapore invitation.
Saturday, September 23, 2017
Baltic dry index - 1502
Today, Friday, September 22 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 32 points, reaching 1502 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.
US rig count - 935
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. fell by one this week to 935.
That's still up from the 511 rigs that were active a year ago.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes said Friday that 744 rigs sought oil and 190 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Louisiana gained three rigs.
Alaska, New Mexico, and Texas each gained one rig. North Dakota and Oklahoma lost three rigs each, and Colorado lost two rigs.
California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.
========================
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Friday, September 22, 2017
Travel alert to Bali.
http://news.sky.com/story/bali-volcano-alert-sees-thousands-evacuated-from-homes-11047375
Bali volcano has shown signs of erupting soon. Therefore, it's best to avoid going to Bali now as the volcano is expected to erupt within 10 days.
Bali volcano has shown signs of erupting soon. Therefore, it's best to avoid going to Bali now as the volcano is expected to erupt within 10 days.
Why is China so blase about Singapore invitation to participate in the KL-SG HSR tender?
Singapore first invited China to participate in our KL-HSR tender in June 2017 by our FM Vivian but China ignored our invitation.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/06/singapore-had-repented-and-invited.html
Then, our PM Lee invited China again in September 2017 during his China visit. However, China has not responded to our invitation again.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-09/20/content_32229112.htm
Why?
Well, China is considering whether to give face or political credit to SG for allowing China to participate in the KL-HSR. Why am I saying this? This is because China is a strategic thinker and has a strategic tactic to undertake the KL-SG HSR without going through SG. Therefore, it will only take part in the project under Singapore invitation out of good faith or when it wants to give political credit to SG.
If you understand the BRI, you will know that China gives preferential treatment to Laos which is an inland country without any port. China is helping Laos by turning it into a land transhipment hub where goods and people are transported to its neighbouring countries by railways and HSRs. Therefore, Laos will adopt China HSR system in reciprocation.
http://shanghaiist.com/2017/07/12/thailand-china-railway-approved.php
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
What about the BKK-KL HSR?
Thailand had given the internal HSR (BKK-Chiang Mai) to Japan because Japan gave a lot of concessions to Thailand. Meanwhile, the cross-border HSRs from BKK to China and Laos were given to China. Thailand has to maintain 2 different HSR systems now instead of one.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/rail-diplomacy-puts-grand-plans-for-thailand-s-railway-on-track-8591784
Malaysia had indicated its preference for China HSR system for the cross-border BKK-KL HSR. Will Thailand adopt a 3rd HSR system for this BKK-KL HSR? I don't think so because it is expensive and difficult to maintain 3 different HSR systems. Therefore, Thai is likely to adopt the China HSR system as requested by Malaysia.
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/thailand-malaysia-begin-talks-hsr-linking-bangkok-and-kuala-lumpur-thai-minister
When the BKK-KL HSR system is adopting the China HSR system, Malaysia will also want to adopt the same system for the KL-SG HSR because it's easier and cheaper to maintain 1 HSR system instead of 2. Therefore, it is likely that Malaysia will impose the China HSR system on KL-SG HSR unless SG gives a lot of concessions to Malaysia to adopt a different HSR system. SG is at the losing end because it is at the end of the HSR and is only responsible for the 15km HSR system on its own land.
Malaysia can insist on building the HSR from KL to JB using the China HSR system and leave SG out of it under the worst case scenario because SG cannot have a say on Malaysia land. Malaysia will just let SG decide on its own HSR because Malaysia also cannot have a say on Singapore land.
This is the reason for China to be blase about our invitation as China has a strategic tactic to undertake the KL-SG project without going through SG. SG is only responsible for 15km of the HSR on its own land and is making a lot of noise about the HSR but Malaysia is so quiet about the HSR when it is undertaking 335km of the HSR. Let's see whether China will give face to SG and participate in the HSR project under our invitation out of good faith.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/06/singapore-had-repented-and-invited.html
Then, our PM Lee invited China again in September 2017 during his China visit. However, China has not responded to our invitation again.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-09/20/content_32229112.htm
Why?
Well, China is considering whether to give face or political credit to SG for allowing China to participate in the KL-HSR. Why am I saying this? This is because China is a strategic thinker and has a strategic tactic to undertake the KL-SG HSR without going through SG. Therefore, it will only take part in the project under Singapore invitation out of good faith or when it wants to give political credit to SG.
If you understand the BRI, you will know that China gives preferential treatment to Laos which is an inland country without any port. China is helping Laos by turning it into a land transhipment hub where goods and people are transported to its neighbouring countries by railways and HSRs. Therefore, Laos will adopt China HSR system in reciprocation.
http://shanghaiist.com/2017/07/12/thailand-china-railway-approved.php
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
What about the BKK-KL HSR?
Thailand had given the internal HSR (BKK-Chiang Mai) to Japan because Japan gave a lot of concessions to Thailand. Meanwhile, the cross-border HSRs from BKK to China and Laos were given to China. Thailand has to maintain 2 different HSR systems now instead of one.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/rail-diplomacy-puts-grand-plans-for-thailand-s-railway-on-track-8591784
Malaysia had indicated its preference for China HSR system for the cross-border BKK-KL HSR. Will Thailand adopt a 3rd HSR system for this BKK-KL HSR? I don't think so because it is expensive and difficult to maintain 3 different HSR systems. Therefore, Thai is likely to adopt the China HSR system as requested by Malaysia.
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/thailand-malaysia-begin-talks-hsr-linking-bangkok-and-kuala-lumpur-thai-minister
When the BKK-KL HSR system is adopting the China HSR system, Malaysia will also want to adopt the same system for the KL-SG HSR because it's easier and cheaper to maintain 1 HSR system instead of 2. Therefore, it is likely that Malaysia will impose the China HSR system on KL-SG HSR unless SG gives a lot of concessions to Malaysia to adopt a different HSR system. SG is at the losing end because it is at the end of the HSR and is only responsible for the 15km HSR system on its own land.
Malaysia can insist on building the HSR from KL to JB using the China HSR system and leave SG out of it under the worst case scenario because SG cannot have a say on Malaysia land. Malaysia will just let SG decide on its own HSR because Malaysia also cannot have a say on Singapore land.
This is the reason for China to be blase about our invitation as China has a strategic tactic to undertake the KL-SG project without going through SG. SG is only responsible for 15km of the HSR on its own land and is making a lot of noise about the HSR but Malaysia is so quiet about the HSR when it is undertaking 335km of the HSR. Let's see whether China will give face to SG and participate in the HSR project under our invitation out of good faith.
Iphone 8 sales launch is disappointing.
http://www.asiaone.com/digital/apples-iphone-8-sees-muted-launch-asia
This will definitely hit Apple's suppliers and manufacturers. Watch out the stock performances of those companies involved in the Apple's chain.
This will definitely hit Apple's suppliers and manufacturers. Watch out the stock performances of those companies involved in the Apple's chain.
OMG! HP is retrenching again.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hewlett-packard-enterprise-reportedly-cutting-234601321.html
Many countries are reporting good economic growth but companies are retrenching......Why? Why? Why?
This shows that we're not having real economic growth at all.
Many countries are reporting good economic growth but companies are retrenching......Why? Why? Why?
This shows that we're not having real economic growth at all.
OMG! SPH is trenching!
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-press-holdings-said-consider-job-cuts-reorganization-plan-113721110.html
SPH monopolizes the Singapore media industry and cannot even survive because of technological changes.
This is what happens when you rest on your laurels thinking that your monopoly will protect your business. Alas! Time has changed.
SPH monopolizes the Singapore media industry and cannot even survive because of technological changes.
This is what happens when you rest on your laurels thinking that your monopoly will protect your business. Alas! Time has changed.
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Why did PM Lee go to China in September 2017?
PM Lee had requested for the new sea-rail link developments between China & SG in this Sino-SG meeting.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/new-sea-rail-link-between-china-and.html
We reported this new sea-rail link before.
PM Lee had also promised to promote China-ASEAN relationship in 2018 when it's the chairman and invited China to participate in the KL-SG HSR.
Basically, this trip is to appease and pacify China because PM Lee realizes that he cannot rely on Trump as he is unpredictable.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/new-sea-rail-link-between-china-and.html
We reported this new sea-rail link before.
PM Lee had also promised to promote China-ASEAN relationship in 2018 when it's the chairman and invited China to participate in the KL-SG HSR.
Basically, this trip is to appease and pacify China because PM Lee realizes that he cannot rely on Trump as he is unpredictable.
Who will win the KL-SG HSR project?
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/lta-forms-new-unit-to-implement-the-kl-singapore-high-speed-rail-project
China? Japan? Korea? or France?
Well, Singapore is responsible for 15km while Malaysia will build 335km of the 350km KL-SG HSR. Therefore, Malaysia will definitely have a bigger say in this joint-venture. Furthermore, Malaysia will also have to consider its KL-BKK HSR. Thus, it is in Malaysia's interest to have the same HSR system as it is easier and cheaper to maintain than to have 2 different HSR systems.
However, in Singapore context, we would like to have an open standard railway system so that we're not at the mercy of a single vendor. This difference in consideration will not sit well with the Malaysia side as Malaysia has more considerations than SG.
Recently, Thailand had awarded its cross-border Thai-Laos HSR to China.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
In view of this, it is likely that China will win the BKK-KL HSR too. Consequently, Malaysia will want to adopt the same HSR system for its KL-SG HSR.
China? Japan? Korea? or France?
Well, Singapore is responsible for 15km while Malaysia will build 335km of the 350km KL-SG HSR. Therefore, Malaysia will definitely have a bigger say in this joint-venture. Furthermore, Malaysia will also have to consider its KL-BKK HSR. Thus, it is in Malaysia's interest to have the same HSR system as it is easier and cheaper to maintain than to have 2 different HSR systems.
However, in Singapore context, we would like to have an open standard railway system so that we're not at the mercy of a single vendor. This difference in consideration will not sit well with the Malaysia side as Malaysia has more considerations than SG.
Recently, Thailand had awarded its cross-border Thai-Laos HSR to China.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
In view of this, it is likely that China will win the BKK-KL HSR too. Consequently, Malaysia will want to adopt the same HSR system for its KL-SG HSR.
US Fed maintains interest rate and will begin QE tapering in October 2017.
The US Fed has maintained its interest rate as expected but will begin its QE tapering in October 2017 with an initial US$10b monthly taper. In a nutshell, this means FED will not reinvest US$10b from its bond proceeds when the bonds mature and this will gradually increase to US$50b per month.
QE tapering will only affect long-term rates because these bonds and MBS maturity periods are long while the FED rate hikes will affect short-term rates like overnight bank rate, loan rate, etc. The FED is expected to hike rate in December 2017 and 3x in 2018.
All in all, rates are definitely rising in the future.
QE tapering will only affect long-term rates because these bonds and MBS maturity periods are long while the FED rate hikes will affect short-term rates like overnight bank rate, loan rate, etc. The FED is expected to hike rate in December 2017 and 3x in 2018.
All in all, rates are definitely rising in the future.
South Korea and China trade war has intensified.
http://english.etnews.com/20170919200001
South Korea has decided to halt its semiconductor and display manufacturer from setting up factories in China in retaliation. However, this move will hurt its Korean businesses.
Why?
China has already produced its own Kirin 970 AI chip which will be used on China-made mobile phones and Sharp is going to produce 8K display panels in China Foxconn factory. Furthermore, TSMC is also producing its A11 chips in China too. Therefore, I don't see any technology transfer from SK to China. Instead, SK manufacturers will lose their competitive edges when they don't set up their factories in China because it will take a longer time to deliver their products to China consumers. The production cost will also be higher when they don't set up factories in China.
Good luck to SK as SK is slowly killing its own businesses.
South Korea has decided to halt its semiconductor and display manufacturer from setting up factories in China in retaliation. However, this move will hurt its Korean businesses.
Why?
China has already produced its own Kirin 970 AI chip which will be used on China-made mobile phones and Sharp is going to produce 8K display panels in China Foxconn factory. Furthermore, TSMC is also producing its A11 chips in China too. Therefore, I don't see any technology transfer from SK to China. Instead, SK manufacturers will lose their competitive edges when they don't set up their factories in China because it will take a longer time to deliver their products to China consumers. The production cost will also be higher when they don't set up factories in China.
Good luck to SK as SK is slowly killing its own businesses.
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