The USA is trying to shift the blame to Russia after failing to pinpoint China.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-trump-says-russia-helping-north-korea-skirt-190952968.html

The USA is trying to blame Russia now after failing to put the blame on China for the illegal oil shipments.

As the main culprit for the illegal oil shipments was Taiwan and not China, the USA had to bail out Taiwan by shifting the blame to Russia.

The USA has shown itself to be non-credible and non-trustworthy.  It is only using its military might and economic prowess to impose itself on others.

The USA is trying to escalate the Korean peninsula tension.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/russia-north-korea-summit-undermines-u-n-aggravates-165723310.html

The USA is trying to supersede the UN by getting 20 countries to participate in a non-UN sanction against North Korea.  This is an illegal sanction and doesn't have the UN mandate.  The 20 countries involved are the same countries that attacked NK in the past.  Therefore, we can tell from this that the USA still possesses the cold war mentality.

Furthermore, the USA is begging for a war with North Korea when the Korean peninsula tension is easing between SK & NK.  This is evident from the way the US is conducting a military exercise against NK on its homeland.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/14/us/politics/military-exercises-north-korea-pentagon.html

The truth about Bitcoin!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-thats-a-crypto-crash-bitconnect-coin-dives-90-as-company-shuts-exchange-2018-01-17?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-speculative-bubble-bursting-long-050501188.html

Many bitcoin fanatics are calling others to buy bitcoins on the dips.  Is it wise to do that?

Is bitcoin or cryptocurrency a scam?  Bitcoin fanatics cited the following reasons for bitcoin investment.

* Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21m and the price will keep going up because of its limited supply. (Bitcoin is scalable because developers and miners can fork bitcoin into bitcoin cash, bitcoin gold, etc.  Therefore, bitcoin is not limited but unlimited.  Demand and supply will only cause price fluctuations but not create real value in the product.)

* Bitcoin has no central bank control and is unregulated. (Without regulation, bitcoin is highly susceptible to frauds and manipulations.  For example, private cryptocurrency exchanges can just shut down without any compensation made to users.)

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905222/bitcoin-price-news-latest-manipulation-cryptocurrency-surge-plummet-stock-exchange

https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/16/bitconnect-which-has-been-accused-of-running-a-ponzi-scheme-shuts-down/

* Bitcoin is anonymous. (The USA & G20 will try to remove the anonymity soon.  Without anonymity, there is no intrinsic value in bitcoin anymore.  The G20 summit is in March 2018.)

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/bitcoin-is-inching-closer-to-its-death.html

* Bitcoin will gain worldwide adoption because it is a technological breakthrough. (Bitcoin is slow and expensive to be used for merchant transactions as it takes about 10min and costs around USD$30 to process a transaction.  Furthermore, bitcoin is subjected to daily price swings that merchants cannot tolerate.  Therefore, it is impractical and not feasible to adopt bitcoin as a payment mode.)

* Bitcoin is easy to buy and sell on crypto exchanges. (Bitcoin is hard to buy and sell during exigencies.  Many investors cannot cash out during recent crashes and are left to lick their wounds.  Sometimes, it can take up to an hour just to sell bitcoin during peak hours.)

Our conclusion: Stay away from bitcoin or cryptocurrency!

There are valid points in Dagong credit rating report on the USA.

http://en.dagongcredit.com/uploadfile/2018/0116/20180116034946792.pdf

We have read the full report in the Dagong credit rating report on the USA and agreed with the valid points raised in the report.

The federal government is virtually bankrupt and the USA cannot repay its colossal debts.  However, no western credit rating firms dare to raise this valid point and continue to assign good credit rating for the USA so that the USA can continue to issue debts to finance its economic growth.  There is no doubt that the USA economic growth is based on credit growth.

In the Dagong's report, the USA is likely to implement QE5 in 2019 because of difficulties in issuing debts in 2018 due to rising interest rates, anemic economic growth and falling USD.  Therefore, the foreign investors will lose interests in the USD bonds and shift their monies elsewhere.  Recently, Bloomberg also published that China would slow down or even halt the purchases of US treasuries because of unattractive investment yields (falling USD & low-interest rates).

Therefore, money printing is the only way out for the USA to maintain its economic growth and the ensuing QE will come as the US federal government will use the new money to boost its economy.

Robbery happened at Ritz Hotel (5-Star) in Paris.

We had warned about Paris security in our previous postings.  Therefore, this shouldn't come as a surprise.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/paris-security-is-getting-from-bad-to.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/11/travel-alert-to-paris.html

Cryptocurrencies have crashed but have not reached bottom yet. Why?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-price-forecast-crash-040830037.html

G20 summit will convene in March 2018 and the USA wants to work with G20 members to remove the anonymity in the cryptocurrency so that criminals cannot avoid detections.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/bitcoin-is-inching-closer-to-its-death.html

As bitcoin is impractical to use for a merchant transaction since it takes about 10mins to process and costs around USD$30 per transaction, the only intrinsic value lies in the anonymity of the holder.

Without this anonymity, bitcoin will crash further!

Let's see what the G20 will do to remove the anonymity.

Jumbo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.435	0.58	Buy	DCF & PER25x FY16
01/04/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.435	0.49	Buy
01/22/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.46	0.55	Buy	DCF
01/29/16	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.445	0.53	Not Rated	PER28x FY16
02/10/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.445	0.55	Buy	DCF
03/04/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.45	0.58	Buy	DCF & PER25x FY16
04/06/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.445	0.55	Buy	DCF
05/05/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.45	0.58	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY16
05/16/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.455	0.62	Buy	DCF & PER
05/17/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.465	0.55	Buy	DCF
06/01/16	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.535	0.68	Buy	PER23x FY17, PEG 0.9x
06/30/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.565	0.65	Buy
07/20/16	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.635	0.72	Buy
08/16/16	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.655	0.77	Buy	PER23x FY17
08/16/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.655	0.6	Hold	DCF, PER21x FY17, Buy @ $0.54
09/28/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.59	0.78	Buy
10/10/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.63	0.6	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.54
11/18/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.62	0.78	Buy	DCF & PER21x FY17
11/28/16	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.66	0.77	Buy	PER23x FY17
11/29/16	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.655	0.65	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.59
12/13/16	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.62	0.78	Buy	DCF, PER21x FY17
02/14/17	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.725	0.65	Hold	DCF
02/15/17	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.715	0.72	Hold	PER23x FY17
02/15/17	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.715	0.75	Hold	DCF
03/27/17	Lim & Tan	Jumbo	0.705	0	Hold
03/28/17	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.695	0.67	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.61
05/16/17	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.655	0.72	Hold	PER23x FY17/18
05/16/17	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.655	0.66	Hold	DCF
05/16/17	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.655	0.64	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.58
08/10/17	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.59	0.67	Hold	PER23x FY18
08/11/17	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.56	0.6	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.54
11/27/17	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.58	0.61	Hold	PER23x FY18
11/27/17	Lim & Tan	Jumbo	0.58	0	Neutral
11/28/17	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.565	0.6	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.54
12/13/17	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.585	0.7	Buy	DCF
12/13/17	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.585	0.7	Buy	DCF
01/04/18	Kim Eng	Jumbo	0.59	0.7	Buy	DCF, PER26x FY18

Jubilee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/04/17	NRA	Jubilee	0.043	0.07	Overweight
10/13/17	NRA	Jubilee	0.048	0.067	Overweight

Stock calls for 17 January 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/18	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.8	4.5	Outperform
01/17/18	Lim & Tan	ESR-Reit	0.575	0	Hold
01/17/18	Amfrasers	First Ship Lease Trust	0.093	0.15	Buy
01/17/18	OCBC	SPH	2.71	2.51	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/17/18	CIMB	Starhub	2.92	2.8	Hold	DCF

Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) - Part 9

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-s-exports-growth-slows-further-as-electronics-decline-9868102

Year on year changes:

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
Dec 2016: 9.1%
Nov 2016: 15.6%

There was a sharp slowdown in NODX in December 2017.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/12/singapore-non-oil-domestic-exports-nodx.html

Noble's future is getting from bad to worse - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-commodity-revenue-drops-75-151222972.html

The commodity industry is still in a doldrum as we can see it from the investment bank's commodity trading division.

It will be hard for Noble to survive in this industry as it has sold all its golden gooses.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/nobes-future-is-getting-from-bad-to.html

China has managed to control ASEAN!

http://www.todayonline.com/world/mekong-countries-pledge-more-cooperation-demands-river-grow

China has managed to convince 5 ASEAN members to let China build 20 dams along Mekong river in exchange for resource sharing such as electricity generated by the dams through electrical grids which will be connected to these 5 countries.  Thus, China will be in charge of sharing the water & electricity among these 5 ASEAN members.

This has big implications for ASEAN as these 5 economies will be closely integrated with China's.  Furthermore, China will also implement its QRcode payment system in these countries to facilitate purchases for China tourists and local residents.  It is without any doubt that China will be able to exert its political powers and influences over these 5 ASEAN members and dilute Singapore's influences.  We took cognizant of such development in our previous posting below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/12/china-is-forging-closer-relationships.html

China has made it very difficult for Singapore to oppose China in the ASEAN summit this year especially when SG is the chairman in 2018.

China is expected to win the KL-SG HSR because of its technological, economical and political prowess.  Please read our previous postings.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/why-is-china-so-blase-about-singapore.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/who-will-win-kl-sg-hsr-project.html

If the KL-SG HSR is awarded to another country especially to Japan, China will not take this fiasco lying down lightly and deem this to be an anti-China move.  Therefore, China will definitely take revenge in the future as it has shown to possess great patience in implementing its strategic plans.

China wants to ban cryptocurrency completely.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/pboc-official-says-chinas-centralised-virtual-currency-trade-055307878--business.html

China wants to wipe out cryptocurrency from the mainland.  China is restricting electricity, land use and so on to ban cryptocurrency.

We support China's move because cryptocurrency is a derivative that can disrupt an economy in a very bad way and it defies economic sense.

A government manages an economy in 3 basic forms: Monetary, Fiscal & Structural policies.  However, it is already difficult to manage an economy with these 3-pronged approaches and recessions happen periodically.

As cryptocurrency will affect the monetary policy effectiveness, it is wiser for the government to nip the cryptocurrency in the bud before it explodes and renders the monetary policy ineffective.  The government will find it almost impossible to manage an economy with only 2 tools instead of 3.

China credit rating firm cuts USA credit standing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-agency-dagong-cuts-u-sovereign-ratings-bbb-082413506--business.html

China credit rating firm cuts USA credit standing from A- to BBB+, citing USA debt problem as the main reason for the downgrade.

Trump has added US$1.5T to the national debt in the next 10 years because of his tax policies and the USA government is virtually bankrupt now.  The debt ceiling must be raised to allow the USA government to function properly.  The US economic growth is based on credit booming and this is not sustainable as the day of reckoning will come sooner or later.

However, no western credit rating firm dares to report the USA problems in details for fear of retaliation from the USA government.  This is akin to the approvals of the Lehman Brothers minibonds by all the western credit rating firms until the saga happened.

Japfa - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/12/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.475	0.9	Buy
03/01/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.5	0.9	Buy	Sum of parts
05/03/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.695	1.1	Buy
06/09/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.745	1.1	Buy	Sum of parts
07/28/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.84	0.96	Hold	Sum of parts
08/16/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.81	0.97	Buy	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda6.6x
09/21/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.805	0.97	Buy
10/28/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.805	1.18	Buy	Sum of parts
01/24/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.92	1.53	Add	Sum of parts, PER11.6x CY17
02/10/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	1.02	1.26	Buy
03/03/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.9	1.41	Add	Sum of parts
03/06/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.89	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.1x FY17
04/10/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.835	1.25	Buy
04/17/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.805	0.69	Reduce	Sum of parts
04/24/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.63	1	Buy	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda6.5x FY17, PER10.5x FY17
05/02/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.605	0.58	Reduce	Sum of parts, PER8.2x CY17, PER7.2x CY18
05/02/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.84	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY17
07/05/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.65	0.88	Buy	Sum of parts
07/31/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.595	0.55	Reduce	Sum of parts

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/17/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.445	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER18x FY18
05/29/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.48	0.54	Buy	DCF, PER18.7x FY18
08/04/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF
11/15/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 16 January 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/18	Phillip	800Super	1.25	1.4	Accumulate	DCF, PER16.3x FY18
01/16/18	Kim Eng	Bukit Sembawang	6.39	8.25	Buy	RNAV (38% discount), PB1.37x
01/16/18	CIMB	City Developments	13.46	13.15	Add
01/16/18	Kim Eng	City Developments	13.46	13.8	Buy	RNAV (6% discount), PB1.26x
01/16/18	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.85	0.98	Buy	DDM
01/16/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.39	0.37	Hold
01/16/18	Kim Eng	Guocoland	2.26	2.95	Buy	RNAV (38% discount), PB0.68x
01/16/18	OCBC	SATS	5.78	5.5	Hold	Buy @ $5.05 or lower
01/16/18	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.71	2.78	Hold	Sum of parts
01/16/18	CIMB	UOL	9.34	9.62	Add
01/16/18	Kim Eng	UOL	9.34	9.85	Buy	RNAV (15% discount), PB0.85x
01/16/18	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.19	4.1	Buy	Sum of parts, PER14x FY18

Singapore port handing capacity had increased by 10% in 2017.

http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/asia/psa-global-container-volumes-up-9-8-to-74-2m-teu-last-year.html

Singapore port handling capacity volume in TEU:

2011 = 29.94m

2012 = 31.65m

2013 = 32.6m

2014 = 33.87m

2015 = 30.9m

2016 = 30.59m

2017 = 33.35m

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/01/singapore-port-volume-has-dropped-again.html

Singapore's port handling capacity volume increased by almost 10% in 2017 which was a good news.  However, we do not expect this growth to be continued for the next few years because other upcoming ports will start to operate fully soon and the emergence of the Arctic lane will thwart the continual growth of the South East Asia lane.

Initially, we expected SG port to decline in its handling capacity in 2017 because we overestimated China's animosity towards SG and would try to bypass or cut down its dependence on SG port.  However, China has shown that it has the patience to deal with any adversity with its strategic planning (OBR initiative).

The petrol-yuan era is coming!

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/China-Is-About-To-Shake-Up-Oil-Futures.html

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will start oil futures trading in RMB on 18 Jan.  This will definitely affect the USD demands and internationalize the RMB.  Investors who dabble in oil trading will need to have RMB accounts and they'll also use their RMBs to buy other commodities and assets such as gold in RMB too.

Oil trading in RMB is not uncommon as Russia and some other Middle Eastern countries have already begun exporting oil to China in RMB.  Therefore, it makes sense for these countries to participate in the oil trading futures in China.  Presently, the oil trading on the Shanghai exchange is Russia's oil.  In time to come, Iran & Saudi may join the oil trading in China.  Let's see how this will pan out in the future.

Jadason - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/08/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.07	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
06/27/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.088	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
07/03/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.084	0.17	Add	PER12.34x FY18
08/04/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.103	0.17	Add	PER12.34x FY18
08/07/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.1	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
09/04/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.102	0.12	Buy	DCF, PER11.4x FY18
09/05/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.095	0.13	Add	PER12.34x FY18
11/09/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.093	0.1	Buy	DCF, PER11.3x FY18
11/13/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.087	0.11	Add	PER12.34x FY19