ISDN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/23/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.215	0.32	Add	PER10x CY20
07/01/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.235	0.32	Add
08/19/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.192	0.27	Add

Stock calls for 20 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/20/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.46	4.15	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.074	0.08	Neutral	DCF
08/20/19	Lim & Tan	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Hyphens Pharma	0.2	0.25	Buy	DCF
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/20/19	CIMB	UOB	25.15	29.54	Add

Thank god! Singapore doesn't need to sell heavily subsidized treated water to JB soon.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-minister-says-johor-to-not-be-dependent-on-singapore-for-treated-water-by-2022-010113972.html

Yeah! SG doesn't need to sell heavily subsidized treated water to JB soon....in 2022!

Malaysia has been taking advantage of SG by buying back treated water cheaply for too long.

Just look at Malaysia's announcement without stating the local water treatment cost per 1000 gallons.  The Malaysian's government is trying to mislead the general public that SG is overcharging MY without stating the true water treatment cost.  The water treatment cost is way higher than $0.50 ringgit per 1000 gallons and it is estimated to be $2.40 ringgit per 1000 gallons (Singapore's treatment cost).

Malaysians should ask their government to come clean with the true water treatment cost but Mahathir won't reveal it.

Water is a strategic supply and should not be held hostage by a foreign country.  Even if the local water treatment cost is higher, the country should produce it locally.  SG is doing that and MY should follow too.  However, by accusing a foreign country of selling the overpriced treated water when instead it is buying the treated water at a heavily subsidized price is a thuggish behaviour.

Nonetheless, SG is happy that this unfair water trade will terminate soon. Cheers!

Cathy Pacific suspends ticket sales at HK airport.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-19/Cathay-Pacific-suspends-tickets-sales-at-counters-at-HK-airport-JhI69AzAkg/index.html

It looks like China is coming down hard on Cathy Pacific.

Cathy Pacific Ceo has rushed to China to try to pacify CAAC so that it can resume its normal flight activities.

It was indeed a flight risk when Cathy Pacific supported its employees to join the HK protests because China couldn't guarantee that Cathy Pacific employees won't do foolish things when the airliner was flying in and out of China airspace since they were emotionally disturbed.

Innotek - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/14/19	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.5	0	Buy on weakness

Indofood Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.2	0.19	Hold	DCF
04/12/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.325	0.33	Hold
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.32	0.29	Hold	DCF

IHH Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.86	2.13	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.45 target price
03/01/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.85	2.29	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.90 target
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.79	2.07	Buy	Ringgit $6.30 target price, PER32.8x FY2020
06/12/19	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.84	2.09	Add	Ringgit $6.37 target price
07/31/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.88	2.16	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.50 target price

Stock calls for 19 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/19/19	Phillip	APTV	0.17	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
08/19/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.4	4.2	Buy	PB0.75x FY19
08/19/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	9.16	0	Buy
08/19/19	phillip	CNMC	0.3	0.33	Accumulate	DCF
08/19/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.29	0.27	Sell
08/19/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.22	Hold
08/19/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.192	0.27	Add
08/19/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.89	1	Buy	DDM
08/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy
08/19/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.59	Buy
08/19/19	Amfrasers	Thai Beverage	0.885	0.8	Neutral

Omg! China has displaced Hong Kong with ShenZhen in the greater bay development.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/china-to-boost-shenzhen%E2%80%99s-role-in-greater-bay-area-innovation

The HK protestors have just killed their own future and they must be celebrating their "success" now.

China has decided to displace HK with Shenzhen in the greater bay developments with many favourable economic and preferential policies.  HK will lose its importance over time and its economic developments will slow down over time too.

These Hongkongers will need to travel to Shenzhen to find work in the future because HK cannot generate enough job opportunities for these 1.7m protestors in the future with weak economic growth.  HK has fallen from its financial hub pedestal and will never rise back to its glorious heyday again.

RIP, HK!

Is HSBC on China's unreliable entity list?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/hsbc-gets-the-cold-shoulder-in-china

It looks like HSBC is veering towards China's unreliable entity list because it has been excluded from the new loan participation.

HSBC has to do a lot of crisis management and damage control now because China is its major market.  By setting up Huawei and letting HSBC account to be used to fund the HK protests, HSBC has proven itself to be anti-China and all these behaviours have to be corrected before China will trust HSBC again.

Trump: No trade deal before HK problems are solved.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/usd-flat-trump-wants-hong-004100531.html

Look like there is no need for the US and China to meet in September anymore.  It is impossible to solve the HK problems without China's interventions.  The HK chief executive is incapable to solve the HK problems on her own or with her current team.

Look like Trump is compelling Xi to intervene in HK issues or else there won't be any US-China trade deal.  Trump doesn't want China to honour the 1 country 2 systems structure but China wants to honour it by remaining on the sideline.  Therefore, Xi won't intervene unless there is a violent riot or terrorism action in HK.  This is not what Trump wants and Trump won't deal with China as stated.

A billion dollar question: Will the US enter a recession?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-survey-34-expect-us-040446403.html

2% of economists expect a US recession in 2019.
38% of economists expect a US recession in 2020.
34% of economists expect a US recession in 2021.

Mohammad El Erian doesn't expect a US recession.
Janet Yellen doesn't expect a US recession.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/mohamed-el-erian-inverted-yield-curve-recession-signal-distorted.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/janet-yellen-say-yield-curve-inversion-may-be-false-recession-signal-this-time.html

What's our stance?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/does-us-2-10y-inverted-yield-curve.html

We also expect a US recession and is most probably happening after Q1 2020.

Let's see who will be right.

Is the seawall able to protect Singapore from getting submerged?

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/national-day-rally-2019-100-billion-needed-to-protect-singapore-against-rising-sea-levels

SG is setting aside $100B for some major anti-submersion construction.

Is the seawall capable to protect a region from getting submerged?

Building a seawall is a double-edged sword.  If it can prevent the seawater from flowing inland in the worst-case weather scenario (severe storm), it is effective.  However, if the seawater cannot block out the seawater in the most severe storm, it will trap the seawater inland and the seawater cannot recede fast.

A seawall is not an unequivocal and panacea solution.  We should take a leaf out of Indonesia's book.  The Indonesian president has just announced he is shifting the Jakarta Capital to Kalimantan in the future despite having some major anti-submersion construction including the seawall.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/indonesia-jakarta-flooding-great-sea-wall-11662564

Why is the Jakarta capital moving despite the construction?  This shows that the seawall is not really effective as it proclaimed to be because it is a double-edged solution.

Bangkok is also in the same situation as Jakarta and the Thailand government is also planning to move its Bangkok capital to the north in the future.

Why do these capitals have to move at all if the seawall can block the seawater out?  The answer is crystal clear.

Many analysts don't understand economics at all. - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-yields-insatiable-appetite-likely-to-deter-china-from-selling-treasuries-135134871.html

Many analysts are starting to back-peddle or retreat from their previous common analysis that China would unload its US treasuries to punish the US.

We had stated previously that China won't do that.  Please read our post below to understand the true rationale and logic behind the US treasuries selloff by China.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/many-analysts-dont-understand-economics.html

Although the analysts had changed their common stance after they realized they were standing on shaky grounds, they had the rationale and logic wrong.

It is a shame that the universities are producing analysts that cannot analyze properly nowadays.  Many people don't truly understand what they're studying.......Sigh!

18 August will be the judgement day for Hong Kong.

The HK protestors will be rallying a mass protest on 18 August (Sunday) with a proclaimed 3-million turnout.

China has warned that if the protest deteriorates into a massive riot, China will intervene by sending its military police and anti-terrorism force into HK.  China basic law allows such intervention without HK approval for anti-terrorism action.

Good luck to HK tomorrow!

The Hong Kong protestors tried to create a bank run in HK but it would be a futile attempt.

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3023065/hong-kongs-banks-say-they-have-adequate-cash-meet-demand

These HK protestors should go back to schools and study more about finance.  The HKMA has close to US$450b in reserves for any currency and financial war.  It is impossible to even ruffle any feather in the banking system at all.  Furthermore, HK has China as its backer to weather out any financial crisis.

https://www.hkma.gov.hk/eng/key-information/press-releases/2019/20190807-4.shtml

A bank run is impossible to happen but some inconvenience will be caused to the general public because the banks have to refill the ATM notes more frequently.  This will only incur the wrath of the general public and the protestors will suffer more backlashes from the public.

Baltic dry index - 2088

Today, Friday, August 16 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 41 points, reaching 2088 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 935

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

IFS Capital - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/19	Amfrasers	IFS Capital	0.225	0.29	Buy	PB0.7x FY18

Ifast Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.11	1.19	Hold	DDM
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.12	1.05	Hold	DDM
07/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.1	1.05	Hold	DDM