Baltic dry index - 2131

Today, Friday, September 20 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 61 points, reaching 2131 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 868

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US-China trade talk in US broke down again!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-stocks-hit-china-183911675.html

The US keeps breaking its promises.  Initially, Trump wanted to have an interim trade agreement but he reneged on his own words by insisting a complete trade deal during the trade talk.

No wonder the Chinese cancelled the farm visits.

Starhub - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.75	1.6	Sell
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.75	2.21	Buy
01/04/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.71	1.88	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.77	1.9	Neutral
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.77	2.45	Buy	DCF
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.82	2.21	Buy
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.89	2.45	Buy
02/15/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.9	1.64	Sell
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.9	2.02	Neutral	DCF
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.9	1.92	Hold	DCF
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	Starhub	1.9	0	Sell
02/18/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.67	1.58	Neutral	EV/Ebitda
02/18/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.67	2.18	Buy	DCF
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.67	1.45	Sell	DCF
02/19/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.61	2	Hold	DCF
03/26/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.51	1.65	Hold	DCF (10% discount)
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.49	2.18	Buy
05/06/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.58	1.62	Neutral
05/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.58	1.45	Sell	DCF
05/06/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.58	1.65	Hold	DCF (10% discount)
05/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.58	1.72	Neutral	DCF
05/06/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.58	1.64	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.58	2	buy	DCF
06/03/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.49	1.62	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.49	1.72	Neutral
07/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.54	1.45	Sell	DCF
08/07/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.48	1.58	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x
08/07/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.48	1.52	Neutral	DCF
08/07/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.48	1.52	Hold
08/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.48	1.45	Sell
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.48	1.55	Hold	EV/Ebitda 6.6x FY19
08/13/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.45	1.65	Hold	DCF

Starhill - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.68	0.8	Buy	DDM
01/31/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.72	0.75	Add	DDM
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.72	0.75	Buy
02/01/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.715	0.75	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.7	0.8	Buy
03/19/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.7	0.75	Buy
03/20/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.695	0.75	Buy
03/21/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.705	0.78	Buy	DDM
03/22/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.7	0.74	Add	DDM
04/29/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.75	0.78	Buy	DDM
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.75	0.77	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Starhill	0.75	0.7	Hold
04/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhill	0.755	0.9	Buy	DDM
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.74	0.78	Buy	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.735	0.78	Buy
06/17/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.755	0.8	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.78	0.78	Buy
07/31/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.8	0.79	Hold
08/02/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.78	0.78	Neutral	DDM
08/06/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.775	0.81	Buy

Stamford Land - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/23/19	Lim & Tan	Stamford Land	0.49	0	Hold

Stock calls for 20 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/20/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.91	1.05	Buy	DDM
09/20/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.91	1	Buy	DDM
09/20/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.91	1.01	outperform
09/20/19	Kim Eng	SATS	4.78	6.1	Buy
09/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.92	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
09/20/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.92	0.96	Hold
09/20/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.92	4.3	Hold

DPM Heng: Asian FTAs not exclusive. How about western FTAs?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/asian-ftas-not-exclusive-support-multilateral-trading-system-heng

DPM Heng said that Asian FTAs such as RCEP shouldn't be exclusive.  I don't know whether this will go down well with China or not.  Why?

DPM Heng didn't say the same thing about TPP in ASEAN that it shouldn't be exclusive and TPP had a poison clause, investor­state dispute settlement.  Why didn't SG demand that TPP be inclusive instead?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/05/fearmongering-by-western-media.html

Why is there a display of double standards here?

SG has to be very careful nowadays because China is watching SG closely.  Please remember that SG exports are declining continuously now and we need China more than China needs SG.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/httpswww.html

ST Engineering - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.51	3.97	Buy
01/23/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.66	3.94	Add
01/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.66	4.06	Buy
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.75	4.15	Buy	Sum of parts
02/21/19	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	3.77	0	Hold
02/22/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.71	4.01	Buy	FCFE
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.71	4.1	Buy
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.71	4.06	Buy
02/22/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.71	4.25	Buy	DCF
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.74	4.1	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.75	4.08	Add
03/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.75	4.06	Buy
03/28/19	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	3.75	0	Hold
03/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.73	4.4	Buy	EV/Invested capital basis
03/29/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.73	4.07	Buy
03/29/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.73	4.15	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.82	4.25	Buy
04/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.9	4.7	Buy	EV/Invested capital basis
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.9	4.1	Buy
04/25/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.9	4.3	Buy	DCF
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.89	4.15	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.02	4.7	Buy
05/16/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.9	4.22	Buy
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.9	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.9	4.43	Add	PER22x FY20
05/22/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.96	4.45	Buy	DCF & PER20.5x FY20 & PB5.5x FY20 & EV/Ebitda11x FY20
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	4	4.45	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	4	4.5	Buy
06/13/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	4.09	4.38	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.09	4.7	Buy
07/05/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	4.24	4.45	Buy	PER20.5x FY20 & PB5.5x FY20 & EV/Ebitda11x FY20 & DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.29	4.7	Buy
08/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.22	4.36	Hold
08/15/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	4.22	4.7	Buy	Sum of parts
08/16/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	4.07	4.36	Add	Sum of parts
08/16/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	4.07	4.64	Buy	Sum of parts
08/16/19	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	4.07	0	Hold
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.9	4.7	Buy
09/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.9	4.34	Buy

SPH Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.01	0.99	Hold
01/07/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.01	1.02	Hold	DDM
01/07/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.01	1.05	Buy	DCF
01/07/19	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	1.01	0	Hold
01/07/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.01	1.02	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.06	1.05	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.06	1.08	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.06	1	Hold
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.06	1.15	Buy	DCF
07/12/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.12	1.11	Hold	DDM
07/12/19	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	1.12	0	Hold
07/15/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.1	1.05	Hold
07/16/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.1	1.05	Hold	DDM
07/17/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.11	1.2	Buy	DCF

SPH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/14/19	CIMB	SPH	2.49	2.64	Hold	Sum of parts
01/14/19	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.49	0	Hold
01/15/19	OCBC	SPH	2.47	2.55	Hold
04/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.43	2.82	Buy
04/10/19	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.53	0	Hold
04/10/19	CIMB	SPH	2.53	2.64	Hold	Sum of parts
04/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.46	2.86	Buy	Sum of parts
04/18/19	OCBC	SPH	2.46	2.55	Hold
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.39	2.86	Buy
06/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.31	2.86	Buy	Sum of parts
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.49	2.33	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.10
07/16/19	CIMB	SPH	2.32	2.22	Hold	Sum of parts
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.32	2.22	Hold	Sum of parts
09/10/19	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.99	0	Hold

Stock calls for 19 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/19/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.11	3.3	Buy
09/19/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.92	Add
09/19/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Buy
09/19/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.45	2.55	Neutral	DCF
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.675	0.8	Buy
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.8	Buy
09/19/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.97	2	Accumulate	DDM
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.4	2.5	Buy
09/19/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.4	2.55	Buy
09/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.15	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts
09/19/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.93	1	Hold

Hong Kong property market is coming down!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/civil-unrest-stalling-hong-kong-032000773.html

The HK protestors must be satisfied now because the property market is coming down now.  Prices and rentals are expected to fall further with the continuous protests.

I just hope another group of people won't come out to protest against the falls in property prices and rentals because the banks will start to recall the mortgage loans or request the borrowers to top up the property valuation shortfalls.  This was exactly what the banks did during the financial crisis.

US FED reduced interest rates in September 2019! - How did we get it right?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-cut-rates-2nd-040547311.html

The US FED cut its rates by 0.25%.  We had predicted this by analyzing the 4 US rates.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

How effective were our analyses of the 4 US rates?  Let's recall.

We predicted the US FED to cut in September - We got it right!

We predicted the US FED to cut in July - We got it right!
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-fed-has-cut-interest-rate-by-025.html

We predicted the US FED to stay put in May - We got it right!
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/will-us-fed-cut-interest-rate-in-may.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-fed-has-stayed-put-but-something.html

Thus, our methodology has proven to work and it is better than listening to other analysts and relying on market expectation polls.  We teach you what others don't know or don't want to reveal.  Cheers!

Soilbuild Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.62	0.65	Buy	DCF
01/23/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.62	0.62	Hold
01/23/19	Jefferies	Soilbuild Reit	0.62	0.62	Hold
04/22/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.63	0.62	Hold
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.63	0.63	Hold	DCF
05/31/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.6	0.62	Hold
07/17/19	Amfrasers	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.609	Neutral	DDM
07/18/19	Lim & Tan	Soilbuild Reit	0.61	0	Hold
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.6	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.63	Hold	DCF
09/03/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.55	0.58	Accept offer

Singtel - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.83	3.58	Buy	DCF
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	2.83	3.39	Hold
01/04/19	Phillip	Singtel	2.86	3.4	Buy	Sum of parts
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.05	3.22	Neutral
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.05	3.59	Buy	Sum of parts
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.05	3.58	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.05	3.5	Buy	Sum of parts
02/12/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.05	3.39	Hold	Sum of parts
02/15/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.03	3.79	Buy
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.03	3.22	Neutral	Sum of parts
02/18/19	Phillip	Singtel	2.99	3.27	Accumulate	Sum of parts
02/18/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.99	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
03/11/19	OCBC	Singtel	2.94	3.79	Buy
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.94	3.09	Neutral	Sum of parts
03/11/19	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.94	0	Hold
03/12/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.93	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
03/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.99	3.58	Buy	DCF
03/22/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.97	3.06	Neutral
03/26/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.97	3.3	Add	Sum of parts
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.02	3.39	Hold
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.06	3.55	Buy	Sum of parts
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.11	3.55	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.13	3.35	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.13	3.59	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.13	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.13	3.58	Buy
05/16/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.13	3.37	Hold	Sum of parts
05/17/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.14	3.31	Accumulate	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.2	3.66	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.21	3.35	Neutral
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.21	3.55	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.32	3.58	Buy	DCF
06/13/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.32	3.48	Hold	Sum of parts
06/14/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.35	3.5	Add	Sum of parts
07/08/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.56	3.6	Hold	Sum of parts
07/15/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.54	3.66	Accumulate	Sum of parts
07/23/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.52	3.4	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.52	3.4	Hold	Sum of parts
08/08/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.29	3.44	Hold	Sum of parts
08/13/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.26	3.45	Accumulate	Sum of parts
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.26	3.4	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/13/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.26	3.6	Add	Sum of parts
08/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.26	3.32	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $3
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.26	3.25	Hold	EV/Ebitda6.3x
08/14/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.18	3.61	Buy

Singapore Post - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
02/04/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	0.965	1.03	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.965	0.92	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold
02/04/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.965	1.23	Buy
02/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.955	1	Hold
02/08/19	CLSA	Singapore Post	0.955	1.17	Buy
04/04/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.995	1	Hold
04/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.03	1.2	Add	DCF, PER18.2x FY21
05/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	1.01	1	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.01	1.17	Add	DCF
05/08/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	1.01	0.96	Hold	DCF
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.99	1.06	Hold	Buy @ $0.95
07/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.88
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.965	0.96	Hold
08/05/19	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold
08/07/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.945	1	Hold

Stock calls for 18 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/18/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.93	1.82	Hold	DDM
09/18/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.58	1.85	Buy
09/18/19	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	2.22	2.68	Buy	Sum of parts, PER9.9x FY20
09/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.9	4.34	Buy

China slaughtered shortsellers including George Soros in HK stock market.

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3027729/investors-shorting-hang-seng-index-might-have-lost-much-hk124

China won again!  George Soros had not learnt his lesson from the AFC.  China used state agencies to prop up the HK stock market through the HK stock-connect route.  Many foreign investors didn't understand that the HK stock-connect route was set up as an economic and political system.  However, they've learnt this lesson now.

Singapore Nodx fell 8.9% in August 2019.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapores-non-oil-domestic-exports-down-89-in-august

Year on year changes (YOY):

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/singapore-nodx-fell-112-in-july-2019.html