The accuracy of an economic forecast is always questionable.

We need to take economic forecasts by reputable firms with a heavy pinch of salt.  Why?

Let's take a look at Singapore's economic growth by ICAEW and Oxford Economics (OE).

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/trade-war-hit-singapore-most-se-asia-recession-2020-possibility

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-gdp-2019-q4-mti-12226222

ICAEW & OE forecast : 1.9% for 2019
Actual GDP growth : 0.7% for 2019

The actual result (0.7%) is only 37% of the forecast (1.9%).  This shows that forecasting firms are too optimistic about the economic situation in spite of the ongoing US-China trade war.

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.72	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.5	0.56	Hold
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.57	0.72	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.57	0.7	Buy	PER12x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.615	0.72	Buy	RNAV
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.555	0.72	Buy
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.545	0.67	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.58	Hold	PER10x
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.67	Buy
06/07/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.67	Add
07/15/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.545	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.525	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.48	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/08/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.515	0.58	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.6	Add	PER10x FY20
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.495	0.65	Buy
11/14/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.515	0.66	Add	DCF
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.515	0.6	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.515	0.46	Hold	PER12x FY20
11/18/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.55	Accumulate	DCF
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.505	0.6	Buy

Amara - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.46	0.88	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.45	0.88	Buy

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/25/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/25/19	Lim & Tan	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	0	Hold
07/26/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	1.6	Buy	DDM
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 6 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Delfi	1	1.51	Buy
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.775	0.88	Buy
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.3	1.32	Buy
01/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.15	2.3	Hold	Sum of parts
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.895	1.04	Buy

The truth behind the US killing of top Iranian commander.

Why did the US kill the top Iranian commander?

Well, this is the real scoop.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/when-us-says-it-is-deploying-its-troops.html

Firstly, the US plundered the Syrian oil field and profited around US$30m.  The US troops based in Iraq went over to Syria to conduct this unscrupulous misdeed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-rocket-attack-us-military-death-latest-a9262121.html

Then, the Iran-backed fighters fired 30 rockets at the US base in Iraq to take revenge for Syria.  Thereafter, Trump ordered the drone attack against the top Iranian general in Iraq in retaliation without informing Iraq.

The US stole Syrian oil and suffered the consequences but couldn't take it down and proceeded to kill the Iranian general.  Where is the justice in this?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

Baltic dry index - 907

Today, Friday, January 03 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 69 points, reaching 907 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcor Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 796

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.

Iran will definitely retaliate but the severity of the retaliation is a big uncertain for the US market.

The US ISM PMI declined again in December 2019 for 5 consecutive months.

The prices rose to 51.7 because the import continued to rise.  The PMI declined to 47.2 which was the lowest level in 2019 and it was in a contraction mode for 5 consecutive months.

The new order decreased to 46.8 because of a reduction in new export order (47.3) and this could indicate that the de-Americanization of China supply chain was affecting the US PMI.  The customers’ inventories (41.1) and production (43.2) decreased because of a further decline in the new order.  This also led to the producers cutting production and employment (45.1) since they were not optimistic about the future.  The continual reduction in manufacturing employment was a grave concern because it was highly correlated to the overall employment in the US.

Therefore, the PMI and its sub-indices indicated a weakening US economy.

AEM - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.905	1.21	Buy	PB2.9x FY19/20, EV/Ebitda5.2x FY20
02/26/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.24	Buy	PB2.8x FY19/20
02/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.05	1.11	Hold	PER10x FY20
04/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.16	1.21	Hold	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.4	Buy	PB3.1x FY19/20
06/11/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.945	1.4	Buy	PB3.1x FY19/20
07/18/19	CIMB	AEM	1.04	1.23	Add	PER10x FY20
07/29/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.22	1.4	Buy	PB3x FY19/20
08/14/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.09	1.4	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
09/16/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.19	1.5	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
10/03/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.12	1.5	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB3.2x FY19/20
10/11/19	Amfrasers	AEM	1.16	1.34	Outperform	PER11x FY20
10/22/19	CIMB	AEM	1.3	1.44	Add
11/04/19	Amfrasers	AEM	1.53	1.8	Outperform	PER12x FY20
11/25/19	CIMB	AEM	1.8	2.12	Add
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	AEM	1.71	2.38	Buy	PER12.1x FY20
12/10/19	DBS Vickers	AEM	1.91	2.38	Buy	PER12.1x FY20
12/31/19	CIMB	AEM	1.99	2.12	Add

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.55	0.61	Hold
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.565	0.61	Buy
04/04/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.59	0.72	Buy
05/31/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.585	0.7	Buy
08/16/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.535	0.67	Outperform	DDM
11/15/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.61	0.67	Outperform
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.7	0.67	Outperform

Ascendas Reit (A-Reit) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.57	2.9	Buy
01/04/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.57	2.78	Accumulate
01/17/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.74	2.95	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.71	3.01	Buy
01/31/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.72	2.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.34x FY19
01/31/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.72	2.83	Add	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	A-Reit	2.72	2.64	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	2.72	2.95	Buy
02/15/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.75	2.88	Accumulate
02/28/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.81	2.95	Buy
03/07/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.83	2.9	Neutral	DDM
03/07/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.83	2.83	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.93	3.1	Buy
04/30/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.01	2.74	Hold
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.01	2.9	Neutral	DDM
05/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3	2.88	Neutral	DDM
05/02/19	CIMB	A-Reit	3	2.87	Hold	DDM
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3	3.2	Buy	DCF
06/19/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.98	2.88	Neutral
06/25/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy
06/27/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.05	3.21	Buy
07/03/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.13	3.3	Buy	DDM
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.15	2.9	Neutral
07/22/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.03	2.88	Neutral
07/30/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.05	3.4	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.05	2.98	Hold
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.03	3.01	Hold	Buy @ $2.78
08/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.04	3.31	Accumulate	DDM
09/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.14	3.25	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $2.98
09/19/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.11	3.3	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.12	3.31	Accumulate
10/04/19	Lim & Tan	A-Reit	3.08	0	Hold
10/07/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.08	3.4	Buy
10/10/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.12	3	Neutral	DDM
10/11/19	CIMB	A-Reit	3.15	3.12	Hold	DDM
10/18/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.13	3.31	Accumulate
11/04/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.17	3	Neutral	DDM
11/04/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.17	3.25	Hold
11/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.12	3.28	Hold	Buy @ $2.99
11/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.89	3.25	Buy
11/21/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.91	3.35	Buy
11/25/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.94	3.31	Accumulate
12/03/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.97	3.35	Buy	DDM
12/06/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.01	3.25	Accumulate
12/06/19	Morgan Stanley	A-Reit	3.01	3.04	Overweight
12/06/19	Macquarie	A-Reit	3.01	2.7	Neutral
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.03	3	Neutral
12/19/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	2.92	3.4	Buy

Stock calls for 3 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/20	CIMB	Boustead	0.76	1	Add	Sum of parts
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.11	30	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.94	1.04	Buy	DCF
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.45	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.4	3.6	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.42	1.43	Buy	EV/Ebitda6x
01/03/20	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.85	2.08	Buy	DDM
01/03/20	Kim Eng	UMS	1.08	1.13	Buy	PB2.2x FY20

Facebook is intervening in Asia politics under the US directives.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/facebook-steps-up-monitoring-for-taiwan-elections

Facebook is setting up election monitoring offices in Taiwan and Singapore to intervene in local elections.

How will Facebook intervene in Asia's local elections?

First, they will set up a "war room" to monitor the election candidates' groups and remove the FB pages to silence the voices of the election candidates online.  Facebook will only allow the voices of those favoured candidates to be heard or seen online.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/ast/201912300015.aspx

FB has already removed Taiwan Han's groups because he is pro-China.  FB may do the same thing in SG by removing the oppositions' groups.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201912130019.aspx

The US layoffs hit its highest level while the unemployment rate was at its lowest.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-hit-4-year-high-in-2019-challenger-gray-data-says-190116585.html

The US unemployment rate was at its lowest while the layoffs hit its highest level.  How come?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html

The only explanation for this conundrum is that the US employment rate has an error since it is survey-based and is subjected to manipulation (fudging).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/08/economic-101-dont-let-unemployment-rate.html

800Super - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	Phillip	800Super	0.685	0	Cease Coverage	DCF
06/10/19	Novus	800Super	0.89	0.9	Accept offer	offer $0.90

Yongnam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.4	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/07/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.41	Add	PB0.8x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.173	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
04/05/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
05/17/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.169	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
08/15/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.171	0.28	Add

Yoma - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.345	0.4	Buy
04/11/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.32	0.57	Buy	Sum of parts (20% discount)
06/03/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.33	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.375	0.5	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
12/26/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.335	0.57	Buy

Stock calls for 2 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.75	4.5	Buy	RNAV (18% discount)
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.95	13	Buy	RNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
01/02/20	DMG & Partners	SGX	8.86	8.8	Neutral	PER23x FY21
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	UOL	8.32	9.5	Buy	RNAV (28% discount), PB0.8x