Stock calls for 16 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.15	Buy
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.28	0.27	Neutral	DCF
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.605	0.75	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.55	1.82	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.62	2.72	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.325	0.33	Hold
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.505	0.58	Buy	DDM
07/16/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.41	Add	DDM
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.2	Neutral	DDM
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.37	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.45	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.26	0	Hold
07/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
07/16/19	CIMB	SPH	2.32	2.22	Hold	Sum of parts
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.32	2.22	Hold
07/16/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.1	1.05	Hold	DDM
07/16/19	CIMB	Venture	15	15.73	Hold	PER125.x CY20
07/16/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.83	5.54	Add
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.83	4.3	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.2x FY20

The US-China trade war impacts on both countries in 2019

China 1st Qtr and 2nd Qtr GDP:
1st Qtr: 6.4%
2nd Qtr: 6.2%

USA 1st Qtr and 2nd Qtr GDP:
1st Qtr: 3.1%
2nd Qtr: 1.5% (Forecast by New York Fed)

It is pretty obvious who suffers more in a US-China trade war.  The 2nd QTR GDP figure for the US will decline by more than 50% from the 1st QTR.

The US total debt is at US$69T now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/number-day-global-debt-grows-221006381.html

US$69T!!!!!!!!

The US is never going to repay this debt but only will roll over and build up more debts.

How much more do you think the US can increase its debt level?

The day of reckoning will come and when it does come, it will be very severe.

China sanctioned US companies!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-says-will-freeze-out-us-companies-that-sell-taiwan-arms-11721442

US defence contractors such as Honeywell and General Dynamics will be sanctioned by China.  If China extends the sanctions to their suppliers, their businesses will be severely affected because their suppliers will stop supplying to the US defence contractors.  China is just taking a leaf out of the US's book because the US did the same thing to Huawei and China ZTE.

If the US can unilaterally sanction a foreign company, China can do the same too.

The US has failed to recognise that China is not the same China anymore.

Singapore and Taiwan relationship will get closer in 2020.

Kaohsiung Mayor Han has been declared as the official presidential candidate by KMT for Taiwan presidential election in 2020.

I predict that Mayor Han will win the presidential election in 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/hot-news-ntuc-sheng-siong-and-prime.html

We had stated previously that he would be a potential presidential candidate and SG-TW relationship would become closer once he became Taiwan president.

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	Jefferies	Ascendas India Trust	1.08	1.2	Buy
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.08	1.25	Buy	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.13	1.25	Buy
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.27	1.4	Buy	DDM

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	0.835	0.98	Buy	DCF

ART - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	OCBC	ART	1.1	1.18	Buy
01/10/19	CIMB	ART	1.1	1.13	Hold	DDM
01/11/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.11	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	OCBC	ART	1.19	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.19	1.35	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	OCBC	ART	1.14	1.25	Buy
03/05/19	CIMB	ART	1.14	1.15	Hold
03/29/19	Lim & Tan	ART	1.18	0	Hold	BV
04/09/19	Phillip	ART	1.18	1.36	Buy	DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy	DDM
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
05/06/19	Phillip	ART	1.21	1.36	Buy	DDM
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.27	1.46	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Buy
06/25/19	OCBC	ART	1.3	1.25	Hold
07/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.28	1.31	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.28	1.15	Hold	DDM
07/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.28	1.46	Buy
07/05/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate	DDM

Stock calls for 15 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/15/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.545	0.65	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.69	4	Accumulate
07/15/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.69	4.15	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
07/15/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	4.04	Buy
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.65	2.06	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.47	10.68	Buy
07/15/19	phillip	Comfortdelgro	2.81	2.99	Accumulate	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.29	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Hotel Properties	3.69	4.74	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/15/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.385	0.41	Hold
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.37	5.05	Sell
07/15/19	phillip	SGX	7.99	8.09	Accumulate	PER21.4x
07/15/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.3	Buy	PER25x
07/15/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.54	3.66	Accumulate	Sum of parts
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.49	2.33	Hold	Sum of parts
07/15/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.1	1.05	Hold
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.29	4.7	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	UOL	7.61	8.5	Buy
07/15/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	14.9	18.6	Buy	PER13.7x FY20
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	14.9	17.91	Hold
07/15/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.76	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
07/15/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.07	2.41	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.32	1.68	Buy

Baltic dry index - 1865

Today, Friday, July 12 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 49 points, reaching 1865 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 958

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US-China trade war hurts the US more than China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-imports-us-plunge-june-085814251.html

China's import of US goods fell 31.4% while US's import of China goods fell 7.8%.

Look like the Chinese are boycotting the US goods because the decline is fast and furious.

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy

APTV - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	Phillip	APTV	0.13	0.14	Accumulate
05/16/19	Phillip	APTV	0.178	0.16	Reduce	EV/Ebitda11x

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.72	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.5	0.56	Hold
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.57	0.72	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.57	0.7	Buy	PER12x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.615	0.72	Buy	RNAV
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.555	0.72	Buy
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.545	0.67	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.58	Hold	PER10x
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.67	Buy
06/07/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.67	Add

Stock calls for 12 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.61	30.3	Buy	PB1.47x FY20
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.95	Buy
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.7	Hold	DCF
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.72	0.77	Hold	DCF
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel KBS	0.79	0.88	Buy	DDM
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.875	0.98	Buy	DDM
07/12/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.12	1.11	Hold	DDM
07/12/19	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	1.12	0	Hold

Singapore 2nd QTR GDP shrank 3.4%.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-shrinks-warning-global-050122956.html

This is not surprising because of the US-China trade war.  SG's export is 200% more than its GDP.  In other words, our export is 3 times our GDP.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/singapore-nodx-fell-159-in-may-2019.html

SG's nodx export has been falling for 3 consecutive months as stated in our previous post above.

When international trades slow down, SG will be badly affected because our domestic consumption is too small to make up for the export slowdown.

Amara - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.46	0.88	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/25/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF

AEM - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.905	1.21	Buy	PB2.9x FY19/20, EV/Ebitda5.2x FY20
02/26/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.24	Buy	PB2.8x FY19/20
02/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.05	1.11	Hold	PER10x FY20
04/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.16	1.21	Hold	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.4	Buy	PB3.1x FY19/20
06/11/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.945	1.4	Buy	PB3.1x FY19/20