Korea-Japan trade war has just begun! - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-says-unveil-plans-234039827.html

As expected, the US has sent a senior diplomat to be a mediator between Japan and South Korea.

The US will NEVER let this KR-JP trade war destroy its strategic alliance in the South China Sea.  The US needs Japan and South Korea to work together to contain China.  Therefore, the US will exert political pressures on both countries to resolve their issues.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/korea-japan-trade-war-has-just-begun.html

Singapore Nodx fell 17.3% in June 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-singapore-exports-drop-most-012835741.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/singapore-nodx-fell-159-in-may-2019.html

Singapore likes to offend ASEAN countries nowadays!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/myanmar-nationals-stage-protest-outside-singapore-embassy-in-us-capital-080651137.html

Mynamar is staging a protest outside SG embassy in the USA.

Singapore likes to offend ASEAN countries nowadays.  After offending Vietnam and Cambodia, SG has moved on to offend Myanmar.  Maybe our government is too free nowadays to make our presence felt in ASEAN by offending other ASEAN members.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/many-analysts-were-dead-wrong-about.html

Best World - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	2.56	2.95	Buy	DCF & PER18x
02/28/19	CIMB	Best World	2.56	2.43	Reduce	PER14.9x CY20
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	2.02	2.95	Buy
04/16/19	CLSA	Best World	1.77	1.75	Sell	Up from $1.29
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	1.62	0	Cease Coverage	Suspension

Banyan Tree - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.57	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
05/22/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.535	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.3	0.34	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.29	0.3	Neutral	DCF
03/19/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.29	0.3	Neutral
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.28	0.27	Neutral	DCF

Stock calls for 16 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.15	Buy
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.28	0.27	Neutral	DCF
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.605	0.75	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.55	1.82	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.62	2.72	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.325	0.33	Hold
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.505	0.58	Buy	DDM
07/16/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.41	Add	DDM
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.2	Neutral	DDM
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.37	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.45	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.26	0	Hold
07/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
07/16/19	CIMB	SPH	2.32	2.22	Hold	Sum of parts
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.32	2.22	Hold
07/16/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.1	1.05	Hold	DDM
07/16/19	CIMB	Venture	15	15.73	Hold	PER125.x CY20
07/16/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.83	5.54	Add
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.83	4.3	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.2x FY20

The US-China trade war impacts on both countries in 2019

China 1st Qtr and 2nd Qtr GDP:
1st Qtr: 6.4%
2nd Qtr: 6.2%

USA 1st Qtr and 2nd Qtr GDP:
1st Qtr: 3.1%
2nd Qtr: 1.5% (Forecast by New York Fed)

It is pretty obvious who suffers more in a US-China trade war.  The 2nd QTR GDP figure for the US will decline by more than 50% from the 1st QTR.

The US total debt is at US$69T now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/number-day-global-debt-grows-221006381.html

US$69T!!!!!!!!

The US is never going to repay this debt but only will roll over and build up more debts.

How much more do you think the US can increase its debt level?

The day of reckoning will come and when it does come, it will be very severe.

China sanctioned US companies!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-says-will-freeze-out-us-companies-that-sell-taiwan-arms-11721442

US defence contractors such as Honeywell and General Dynamics will be sanctioned by China.  If China extends the sanctions to their suppliers, their businesses will be severely affected because their suppliers will stop supplying to the US defence contractors.  China is just taking a leaf out of the US's book because the US did the same thing to Huawei and China ZTE.

If the US can unilaterally sanction a foreign company, China can do the same too.

The US has failed to recognise that China is not the same China anymore.

Singapore and Taiwan relationship will get closer in 2020.

Kaohsiung Mayor Han has been declared as the official presidential candidate by KMT for Taiwan presidential election in 2020.

I predict that Mayor Han will win the presidential election in 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/hot-news-ntuc-sheng-siong-and-prime.html

We had stated previously that he would be a potential presidential candidate and SG-TW relationship would become closer once he became Taiwan president.

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	Jefferies	Ascendas India Trust	1.08	1.2	Buy
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.08	1.25	Buy	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.13	1.25	Buy
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.27	1.4	Buy	DDM

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	0.835	0.98	Buy	DCF

ART - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	OCBC	ART	1.1	1.18	Buy
01/10/19	CIMB	ART	1.1	1.13	Hold	DDM
01/11/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.11	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	OCBC	ART	1.19	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.19	1.35	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	OCBC	ART	1.14	1.25	Buy
03/05/19	CIMB	ART	1.14	1.15	Hold
03/29/19	Lim & Tan	ART	1.18	0	Hold	BV
04/09/19	Phillip	ART	1.18	1.36	Buy	DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy	DDM
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
05/06/19	Phillip	ART	1.21	1.36	Buy	DDM
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.27	1.46	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Buy
06/25/19	OCBC	ART	1.3	1.25	Hold
07/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.28	1.31	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.28	1.15	Hold	DDM
07/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.28	1.46	Buy
07/05/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate	DDM

Stock calls for 15 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/15/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.545	0.65	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.69	4	Accumulate
07/15/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.69	4.15	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
07/15/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	4.04	Buy
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.65	2.06	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.47	10.68	Buy
07/15/19	phillip	Comfortdelgro	2.81	2.99	Accumulate	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.29	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Hotel Properties	3.69	4.74	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/15/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.385	0.41	Hold
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.37	5.05	Sell
07/15/19	phillip	SGX	7.99	8.09	Accumulate	PER21.4x
07/15/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.3	Buy	PER25x
07/15/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.54	3.66	Accumulate	Sum of parts
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.49	2.33	Hold	Sum of parts
07/15/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.1	1.05	Hold
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.29	4.7	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	UOL	7.61	8.5	Buy
07/15/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	14.9	18.6	Buy	PER13.7x FY20
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	14.9	17.91	Hold
07/15/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.76	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
07/15/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.07	2.41	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.32	1.68	Buy

Baltic dry index - 1865

Today, Friday, July 12 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 49 points, reaching 1865 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 958

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US-China trade war hurts the US more than China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-imports-us-plunge-june-085814251.html

China's import of US goods fell 31.4% while US's import of China goods fell 7.8%.

Look like the Chinese are boycotting the US goods because the decline is fast and furious.

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy

APTV - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	Phillip	APTV	0.13	0.14	Accumulate
05/16/19	Phillip	APTV	0.178	0.16	Reduce	EV/Ebitda11x