Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Hot news - UK PM is back in quarantine again!
https://www.newser.com/story/298811/boris-johnson-under-quarantine-again.html
The UK PM is back in quarantine again. He is making a false claim about covid, just like Donald Trump. I don't know why western leaders like to make false claims nowadays.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-can-only-last-about-4.html
PM Boris contracted covid about 8 months ago and his immunity would have disappeared completely after so many months. Therefore, he is likely to contract covid again since covid immunity is only temporary.
Monday, November 16, 2020
Italy found covid-19 cases in September 2019, much earlier than thought.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-emerged-italy-earlier-thought-173825186.html
When a country starts to use scientific handling instead of political handling, it will discover the truth about covid.
Italy found covid cases as early as September 2019 but the Wuhan outbreak started in November. Well, Italy didn't report this when the US accused China of creating the virus.
We had already stated that the virus origin was not in China.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-truth-behind-covid-19-outbreak-is.html
Why did China clamp down on Ant's IPO?
I received a request to give my opinion on the cancellation of Ant's IPO. Here it goes!
If you understand Ant's business model and the political background of Alibaba, you would have expected China to take action against Ant. Why?
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/11/china-government-is-targeting-jack-ma.html
Jiang Zemin's caucus has been trying to disrupt China's economy by using the entrepreneurs that are groomed for its own agenda and Alibaba is one of the business groups. Jiang Zemin's grandson is on board Alibaba as one of its biggest shareholders.
Jiang Zemin is still using the same tactic of trying to leave colossal debts in the banking sector so that China's financial industry will be crumbled by the high non-performing loans.
Ant's fundamental business is its microlending business (huabei & jiabei) which provides small loans without collaterals. Under the existing business structure, Ant only puts up 2% of its own cash and outsources 98% of cash loans to China banks without collaterals. This puts the banking industry in an extremely vulnerable position as the high-risk debts put tremendous stresses on the banks. Basically, Jiang Zemin is using the same old trick again through Ant.
Therefore, China has decided to rein in Ant's business by imposing Ant to put up at least 30% of its own cash loans and restrict the loan criteria. The new restrictions will definitely crumple Ant's revenues but they will save the banking industry. Therefore, the future Ant's profitability will be limited and its IPO valuation will have to be reduced significantly.
Saturday, November 14, 2020
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 15
A new candlestick gap had developed for the S&P recently which was providing a very good support level. Although the S&P had closed below the 5-day SMA recently, it didn't close below the candlestick gap. Therefore, the bullish trend is still intact.
Friday, November 13, 2020
Thursday, November 12, 2020
US treasury yields have been creeping up. What's the repercussion?
The US 10-year yield has been creeping up from 0.67% (28 Sep) to 0.98% (10 Nov) which is a whopping 46% increase.
The 10-year yield is the risk-free rate and is used as the discount rate or factor in many financial models (DDM, DCF, CAPM, etc). The asset values which are derived from the aforesaid financial models will be impacted because the ever-increasing discount rate will cause the valuations to fall since the future incomes are discounted to present values.
If a company's profitability is not rising faster than the risk-free rate, then the company's stock valuation will have to fall due to the higher discount rate. This is something we need to watch out for.
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