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Thursday, May 9, 2019

First Resources - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.56 1.6 Hold
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.72 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.69 2.1 Buy
03/01/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.71 2.03 Buy PER17x
03/04/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.72 1.6 Neutral PER13x FY19
03/04/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.72 1.97 Buy DCF
03/05/19 CIMB First Resources 1.7 2.12 Add
03/12/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.69 1.85 Hold Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19 CIMB First Resources 1.79 2.12 Add
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.85 1.85 Hold
05/06/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.82 2.03 Buy PER17x FY19
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.79 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65

Stock calls for 9 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/09/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.05 1.4 Buy
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.485 0.62 Buy
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.79 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.615 0.82 Buy DCF
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.245 0.23 Neutral DCF
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.75 0.95 Buy
05/09/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.82 0.87 Buy
05/09/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.41 Hold
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Post 0.99 1.06 Hold Buy @ $0.95
05/09/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.11 3.55 Buy
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Sunningdale 1.32 1.22 Hold PER11x FY20, Buy @ $1.10
05/09/19 CIMB Sunningdale 1.32 1.38 Hold PB0.69x FY19

Bonitas Research: Best World is a fraud! - Part 2

REBUTTAL TO BEST WORLD’S CLARIFICATION ANNOUNCEMENT

China's CPI has risen to 6-month high.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-factory-gate-inflation-hits-four-month-high-025321639--business.html

China CPI is at 2.5% in April, a 6-month high.

This is not unexpected as we've expected CPI to rise in China in our previous post.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/global-inflation-or-deflation.html

US-China trade tariffs will also contribute to higher CPI in the 2nd half of 2019 in the US & China.

We need to understand the chain of events in a real economy, starting with the CPI below.

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

First Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 phillip First Reit 1.04 0.88 Neutral DDM
01/17/19 Lim & Tan First Reit 1.03 0 Neutral
01/18/19 OCBC First Reit 1.01 0.97 Hold
01/18/19 CIMB First Reit 1.01 1.2 Add DDM
02/11/19 OCBC First Reit 1.14 0.97 Sell
04/11/19 CIMB First Reit 0.99 1.2 Add DDM

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.625 0.675 Buy
02/07/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.675 Buy
02/13/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.64 0 Buy
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.7 Buy DCF
02/14/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Add DDM
02/14/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.75 Buy DDM
02/14/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Buy
04/15/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.67 Hold
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.7 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.71 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.8 Buy

Ezion - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.05 0.06 Hold PB0.3x FY19
03/11/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PER10x F20
04/05/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PB1.4x

Stock calls for 8 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/08/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.825 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
05/08/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.61 2.88 Add DCF
05/08/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.72 8.41 Add Sum of parts
05/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.3 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 Lim & Tan Overseas Edu 0.3 0 Buy
05/08/19 OCBC Singapore Post 1.01 1 Hold
05/08/19 CIMB Singapore Post 1.01 1.17 Add DCF
05/08/19 DBS Vickers Singapore Post 1.01 0.96 Hold DCF

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

ESR-Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 Lim & Tan ESR-Reit 0.53 0 Hold
01/21/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.53 0.62 Add DDM
01/21/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.575 Buy
01/22/19 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.53 0.59 Buy
02/12/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.515 0.61 Buy DDM
03/07/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.53 0.62 Add
03/13/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.53 0.61 Buy
04/10/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.54 0.55 Hold
04/25/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.51 0.6 Add DDM
04/25/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.51 0.565 Buy

EC World Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/09/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.7 0.81 Buy
02/15/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.745 0.82 Buy
02/22/19 DBS Vickers EC World Reit 0.745 0.86 Buy DCF
02/25/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.755 0.84 Buy DDM
03/04/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.76 0.85 Buy DDM, PB0.84x FY19
03/18/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.77 0.84 Buy
05/07/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.77 0.84 Buy

Duty Free - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 Lim & Tan Duty Free 0.192 0 Accumulate

Stock calls for 7 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/07/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.555 0.72 Buy
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.835 0.92 Hold
05/07/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.475 0.61 Buy DCF, PER13.7x FY19
05/07/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.475 0 Buy
05/07/19 OCBC DBS 26.53 27.5 Hold
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.3 1.68 Buy DCF, PER28x FY19
05/07/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.77 0.84 Buy
05/07/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.85 2.08 Add
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/07/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.77 1.06 Buy DCF
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.77 0.8 Hold PER17x FY19
05/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.825 0.92 Buy DCF
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.61 0.65 Buy DCF
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.74 0.78 Buy DDM
05/07/19 Lim & Tan Sunningdale 1.35 0 Hold
05/07/19 DMG & Partners UG Healthcare 0.18 0.32 Buy PER10x FY20
05/07/19 OCBC UOB 25.85 27.3 Hold

Do not subscribe to Luckin coffee ipo! Why?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/consumer/gic-backed-luckin-coffee-seeks-to-raise-up-to-us510m-in-us-ipo

I've heard too many news about this coffee startup.

Do you know where does this startup source its coffee beans?
It sources its coffee beans from Taiwan which is not a coffee producing country and the coffee beans are not of good quality.  A real coffee company will source its coffee beans from coffee producing countries and not from Taiwan.  Why is this company sourcing coffee beans from Taiwan? I leave it to your imagination.

This coffee startup is burning cash like hell, just like the bike sharing business.  It has to offer discounts and deals just to sell its coffee.  Without these discounts and deals, it cannot sell at all.

The short-sellers will target and publish SELL reports on this coffee startup in the future because it has weak fundamentals and a flawed business concept.

Hopefully, GIC is able to get out of this company soon before it suffers from a great burnout.

How the China RRR cut will impact its economy?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-steers-credit-small-firms-034303771.html

The China RRR cut will release RMB$280b into the economy.

Let me offer a simple explanation of RRR.

The RRR is imposed on banks by the central bank to prevent liquidity and bankruptcy issues such as bank run.

When a bank takes a deposit of $100, it is a debt owed to the bank customer and the bank will pay the bank customer a deposit interest.  The bank will use the debt (deposit) for bank lending to earn a higher loan interest so that the bank can cover the deposit interest and earn a profit.  However, the central bank will not allow the bank to make a full loan of the deposit ($100) because it will create a liquidity risk.  Therefore, the central bank imposes a required reserve ratio (RRR) on the bank and limits the bank lending on its deposit.

For example:

If the RRR is 20%, the bank can only make a loan of $80 out of every $100 deposit.

If the bank pays a $2 interest on every $100 deposit, its cost of debt (deposit) is 2%.

When the RRR is 20% and the bank still pays a $2 interest, its cost of debt is 2.5% (2/80).  Therefore, the cost of debt for the bank increases with higher RRR.

When the RRR is lowered, the cost of debt is lowered too and the bank can earn a profit more easily with lower loan interest.

In conclusion, a lower RRR is meant to boost monetary supply and local consumption in the economy.  In other words, this is a QE policy.

Monday, May 6, 2019

France has done the right thing for its pedestrians.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/france-ban-e-scooters-pavements-september-090821006.html

Well done! France is doing the right thing.

E-scooters put pedestrians in danger on the pavements.

They ride recklessly at high speeds and don't give way to pedestrians on the pavements.  They are a nuisance as they expect pedestrians to give way to them by honking.

DISA - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/19/19 Amfrasers DISA 0.003 0 Cease Coverage

Delfi - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.32 1.59 Buy
03/01/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.45 1.68 Buy DCF, PER28x FY19
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.3 1.68 Buy

DBS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners DBS 23.69 29.8 Buy GGM, PB1.54x FY19
01/03/19 CIMB DBS 23.49 27 Hold PER10.7x FY20
01/03/19 JP Morgan DBS 23.49 29 Overweight
01/08/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 23.75 28.5 Buy
01/08/19 Jefferies DBS 23.75 28.5 Buy
01/29/19 CIMB DBS 24.22 29 Add GGM, PB1.4x CY19
01/31/19 Kim Eng DBS 23.94 30.18 Buy DDM
02/01/19 phillip DBS 23.92 29.02 Buy
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 24.33 28.5 Buy
02/12/19 Kim Eng DBS 24.36 30.18 Buy
02/18/19 DMG & Partners DBS 24.74 29.8 Buy
02/18/19 Lim & Tan DBS 24.74 0 Buy
02/19/19 Jefferies DBS 25.2 28.5 Buy
02/19/19 OCBC DBS 25.2 29.31 Buy
02/19/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.2 28.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
02/19/19 phillip DBS 25.2 29 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
02/19/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.2 29.56 Buy DDM
02/19/19 CIMB DBS 25.2 29 Add GGM
02/19/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.2 28.4 Buy
02/20/19 Macquarie DBS 25.1 27 Neutral PB
02/26/19 Amfrasers DBS 25.18 27.7 Buy RIM
03/04/19 phillip DBS 25.08 29 Buy
03/07/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.36 29.56 Buy
03/11/19 CIMB DBS 25.06 29 Add
03/13/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.3 28.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
03/26/19 OCBC DBS 25.12 29.31 Buy
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.23 28.4 Buy
04/02/19 phillip DBS 25.59 29 Buy
04/10/19 DMG & Partners DBS 27 29.6 Buy PB1.43x FY20
04/11/19 CIMB DBS 26.97 29 Add
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 27.4 30.3 Buy GGM, PB1.57x FY19
04/22/19 Kim Eng DBS 27.4 29.56 Buy
04/29/19 Lim & Tan DBS 27.41 0 Buy
04/30/19 Macquarie DBS 28.4 27 Neutral
04/30/19 phillip DBS 28.4 29 Accumulate GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19 OCBC DBS 28.4 29.18 Hold Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19 CIMB DBS 28.4 30 Add GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19 DMG & Partners DBS 28.4 30.8 Buy PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19 Lim & Tan DBS 28.4 30 Hold
05/02/19 Amfrasers DBS 28.25 27.7 Hold
05/02/19 Jefferies DBS 28.25 31.5 Buy PER13.1x FY20

Stock calls for 6 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/06/19 Phillip ART 1.21 1.36 Buy DDM
05/06/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.82 2.03 Buy PER17x FY19
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.89 2.3 Buy
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.44 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
05/06/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.44 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19 Tayrona Sanli Env 0.18 0.234 Overweight
05/06/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
05/06/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.77 Hold
05/06/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.48 Buy
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
05/06/19 Phillip Starhub 1.58 1.62 Neutral
05/06/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.58 1.45 Sell DCF
05/06/19 CIMB Starhub 1.58 1.65 Hold DCF (10% discount)
05/06/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.58 1.72 Neutral DCF
05/06/19 OCBC Starhub 1.58 1.64 Hold
05/06/19 Kim Eng Starhub 1.58 2 buy DCF
05/06/19 Jefferies UOB 27.77 31 Buy PER12.4x FY19
05/06/19 OCBC UOB 27.77 28.9 Hold GGM, PB1.2x
05/06/19 phillip UOB 27.77 30.87 Accumulate GGM, PB1.4x FY19
05/06/19 CIMB UOB 27.77 29.58 Add GGM, PB1.3x
05/06/19 Lim & Tan UOB 27.77 0 Buy on weakness

China VP Liu has changed his US travel plan.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/china-vice-premier-liu-will-still-travel-to-us-this-week-but-will-shorten-trip

As Trump threatened to impose additional China tariffs on Friday (10 May), China VP Liu had decided to defer his US travel plan to Thursday (9 May) and would reach the US on Friday (10 May).  He wanted to see if the US would impose the threat against China. Then, he would leave the US on Saturday.

Basically, there is nothing much VP Liu can discuss with the US as the time is too short to produce any productive outcome.  This is a wasted trip unless Trump is willing to change his unreasonable threat.

China is preparing a trade war with the US now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-central-bank-cut-requirements-banks-trade-tensions-034114168--sector.html

The China RRR cut deserves some attention because it is imposed after Trump's threat on Sunday.

The Chinese are preparing for a trade war with the US because China is trying to stimulate its local consumption with the RRR cut since it is a consuming nation now.

What's worrying to the global world is that the Chinese are consuming more local made products and reducing their imports in this trade war.  This will cause a global recession and many export-oriented countries like SK, Japan, SG, etc will suffer tremendously.

The US has issued a warning to anti-Israel countries such as Malaysia.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/u-may-review-ties-countries-deemed-anti-israel-142945853.html

The US has issued a warning in public to anti-Israel countries like Malaysia.

Malaysia is one of the anti-Israel countries.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sport/paralympics-malaysia-stripped-of-right-to-host-world-11172762

This will force Malaysia to kowtow to China because Malaysia is helpless against the US.  Malaysia has to find a big country to join forces to fight off the US.

The US is playing a stupid political game with Iran.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/u-deploying-carrier-bombers-middle-east-warning-iran-010502968.html

The US can send a carrier strike group to Iran but the Russian also can send its naval warships to Iran too.  The US dares not attack the Russian warships as this will escalate into a WW3 since both countries have large arsenals of nuclear weapons.  China also may get involved as it is a major customer of Iran.

Trump threatens China with more tariffs again.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-vows-tariff-hike-chinese-goods-escalating-tension-004818460.html

China should just walk away from the trade talk because the US economy would just collapse if Trump imposed more tariffs.  The trade war devastation is starting to creep up in the US economic data and the US government is trying to fudge the economic numbers now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/discrepancies-in-us-employment-data.html

We've found discrepancies in the US manufacturing employment datum because it is not in sync with the PMI employment sub-index.  The PMI employment sub-index fell but the manufacturing employment datum rose.

Saturday, May 4, 2019

Discrepancies in the US employment data.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-job-growth-surges--unemployment-rate-drops-to-3-6-percent-11499716

US job growth surged in April and the unemployment rate dropped.

However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data in April showed otherwise.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html

The employment sub-index under the April PMI showed it dropped from 57.5% to 52.4%, an almost 10% drop.  A drop of such magnitude is serious!

This could only mean that the manufacturing industry was shedding workers but workers were increasing in other sectors.  Right? No!

The US employment data showed that the manufacturing sector increased by 4,000 jobs in April and contradicted the April PMI data.  A 4,000 job increase couldn't cause the employment sub-index under PMI to drop by 10%.

Something fishy is going here.  Like I said before, the demon was hiding in the details.

Baltic dry index - 1032

Today, Thursday, May 02 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 1 point, reaching 1032 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 990

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco,

Friday, May 3, 2019

Dasin Retail - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/15/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.885 0.95 Accumulate DDM
02/28/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.885 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.64x

Dairy Farm - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.57 8.64 Neutral DCF
03/04/19 DBS Vickers Dairy Farm 8.57 8.44 Hold Sum of parts
03/06/19 CIMB Dairy Farm 8.33 8.54 Hold PER23.5x FY20
03/20/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.41 8.25 Buy DCF
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.14 8.25 Buy

CSE Global - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.385 0.59 Buy
01/07/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.395 0.59 Buy DCF
01/11/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.395 0 Buy
01/15/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.405 0.56 Add PER13.5x FY20
01/22/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.43 0.57 Buy
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.455 0.59 Buy
02/22/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.465 0.6 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.465 0.6 Add PER13.5x FY19
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.465 0.62 Buy
03/05/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.505 0.58 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.54 0.62 Buy
03/26/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.54 0.61 Buy DCF
03/26/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.54 0.6 Add
04/02/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.545 0 Buy