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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.28 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
02/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.21 Sell
03/01/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.27 Hold
04/09/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.29 Hold PB0.65x
04/09/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.315 0.23 Reduce
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.295 0.21 Sell
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate

Stock calls for 15 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.69 0.8 Buy DCF
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.405 0.41 Neutral DCF
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.65 Take Profit
05/15/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.69 Hold
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.77 Buy
05/15/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.87 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.6x
05/15/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.785 0.87 Buy DDM, PB0.93x
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
05/15/19 phillip HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy DCF
05/15/19 CIMB HMI 0.530 0.68 Add DCF
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy
05/15/19 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.22 0.29 Buy DCF
05/15/19 CIMB Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.835 0.95 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.835 0.9 Buy
05/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.835 0.93 Accumulate DCF
05/15/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.835 0.94 Buy DDM

The US is going to impose a blanket ban on Huawei.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-trump-expected-sign-order-paving-way-u-045236197--finance.html

It is time for China to impose a ban on US IT firm too.  Many US IT firms have backdoors for NSA and FBI to snoop around to gather intelligence of any kind, be it for terrorism or commercial purposes.

https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/6/4403868/nsa-fbi-mine-data-apple-google-facebook-microsoft-others-prism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSAKEY

China should ban Microsoft as it poses a high security risk.

I've stopped using Microsoft a long time ago and switched to Linux (ubuntu).

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Genting - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.1 1.23 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB Genting 1.11 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19 OCBC Genting 1.11 1.31 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.11 1.22 Buy DCF
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.11 1.32 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.11 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
04/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.07 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.07 1.08 Neutral DCF
04/04/19 CIMB Genting 1.07 1.11 Add EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19 OCBC Genting 1.07 1.31 Buy
04/04/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.07 1.12 Hold EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy DCF

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.27 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.21 0.285 Buy
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.21 0 Buy
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
02/28/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.215 0.2 Hold
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
04/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy

Frencken - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/12/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.51 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
04/15/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.6 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19 CIMB Frencken 0.635 0.9 Add PER10x FY20
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.615 0.82 Buy DCF
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.615 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Frencken 0.615 0 Buy
05/10/19 CIMB Frencken 0.615 0.9 Add
05/14/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.595 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19

Stock calls for 14 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/14/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.545 0.67 Buy DCF
05/14/19 DMG & Partners DBS 26 30.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY20
05/14/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.79 0.85 Buy DDM
05/14/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.595 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/14/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.081 0.08 Neutral DCF
05/14/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.540 0.68 Buy DCF, PER27x FY20
05/14/19 DBS Vickers HRnetGroup 0.76 0.85 Hold
05/14/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.173 0.2 Hold
05/14/19 Kim Eng Raffles Medical 1.02 1.13 Hold DCF
05/14/19 CIMB Riverstone 0.995 1.22 Add
05/14/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.43 2.85 Buy DCF
05/14/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.43 2.43 Hold
05/14/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.43 2.55 Hold Buy @ $2.30
05/14/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.43 2.6 Hold
05/14/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.43 3.11 Add
05/14/19 Amfrasers Thai Beverage 0.765 0.75 Hold
05/14/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.615 0.55 Fully Valued PER8x FY19
05/14/19 DBS Vickers UOL 7.08 8.53 Buy
05/14/19 OCBC Wing Tai 2.01 2.41 Buy

What will China do when it runs out of US products to tax?

The trade deficit that exists between the US and China only includes physical products that are being traded but doesn't include services like finance, IT, banking, insurance, tourism, etc.

The real trade deficit is only about US$100++ billion between the 2 countries after including the services.  Therefore, China is likely to target the US services when all the Chinese goods are being taxed and this will hurt the US very badly since the US is a service-oriented country.

Risk-free arbitrage opportunity exists in RMB now.

The CNH-CNY spread is widening and this will present a risk-free arbitrage opportunity between currency trading in HK & China.


The US has issued $300b target list of China goods.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-issues-300b-target-list-065125531.html

This $300b target list will be imposed after the G20 summit in June 2019 when the US and China presidents cannot achieve a trade deal.

China will be preparing a list too but this list will extend to other things.

Let's sit back and watch!

China is brilliant to be hush-hush about its retaliatory US tariffs - Part 2

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-china-donald-trump-xi-jinping-trade-war-escalates-beijing-11530484

China had retaliated with its own tariffs and slaughtered investors who had bought the stocks last Friday.  Those investors bought stocks with the assumption that China would relent and conclude the US-China trade deal soon but they've misjudged the situation.

This US-China trade war won't be a short one!

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-is-brilliant-to-be-hush-hush.html


Monday, May 13, 2019

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.74 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
02/14/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.7 2.08 Add
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.7 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
03/22/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.77 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
04/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.81 1.98 Buy
04/10/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.84 2.3 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.89 2.3 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/07/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.85 2.08 Add

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.2 Buy DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.19 Buy
01/28/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.19 Add
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.09 1.2 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.16 1.2 Buy
04/30/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.2 Hold
05/02/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.21 Hold DDM

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/01/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.8 Buy DDM
02/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.78 Buy
02/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.74 0.82 Buy
05/03/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.85 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.77 Hold DCF

Stock calls for 13 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.9 2.16 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.55 30.5 Buy
05/13/19 Citibank DBS 26.55 27 Neutral
05/13/19 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.77 0.94 Buy DCF
05/13/19 CIMB Jadason 0.038 0.059 Add PB1x CY19
05/13/19 Macquarie OCBC 11.39 13 Outperform
05/13/19 phillip OCBC 11.39 12.68 Accumulate GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.39 14.62 Buy PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19 CIMB OCBC 11.39 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.26x
05/13/19 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.64 0.83 Buy RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.27 5.6 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.39 2.86 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 4.02 4.7 Buy
05/13/19 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.825 0.83 Neutral Sum of parts
05/13/19 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.825 0.94 Add
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.825 0.85 Hold Sum of parts
05/13/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.825 0.92 Buy Sum of parts
05/13/19 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.825 0.88 Hold
05/13/19 Lim & Tan UOL 7.26 0 Buy
05/13/19 CIMB UOL 7.26 8.45 Add RNAV (30% discount)
05/13/19 OCBC UOL 7.26 8.5 Buy
05/13/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.51 3.8 Buy Sum of parts
05/13/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.51 3.86 Buy DCF, PER15.6x FY19

Best world didn't give a full disclosure on the relationship with its primary China agent.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/best-world-admits-owner-china-223032614.html

Why did Best World hide this clandestine relationship?

This incident gave Best World a very bad impression as it was forced to admit the relationship by SGX.  This saga also strengthened the Bonitas research's report that Best World was fudging its books.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/bonitas-research-best-world-is-fraud.html

Saturday, May 11, 2019

China is brilliant to be hush-hush about its retaliatory US tariffs.

China didn't respond immediately with its retaliatory US tariffs on Friday.  This is not a piece of good news for the US markets because it keeps the investors edgy since the retaliatory US tariffs will come anytime.  Who will dare to buy stocks when the retaliatory US tariffs will come anytime.

Baltic dry index - 1013

Today, Friday, May 10 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 39 points, reaching 1013 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 988

The U.S. dropped two oil rigs this week, according to weekly data from Baker Hughes, a GE Company.
The gas rig count remained flat this week, making the nation’s overall total rig count 988. This is 57 fewer rigs than one year ago when the rig count was 1,045.
New Mexico led all states in rig declines, posting a loss of four this week. Wyoming dropped two rigs while Louisiana and North Dakota dropped one rig apiece.
California added three rigs this week, while Oklahoma added two and Pennsylvania and Texas added one rig apiece.
Among the major basins, the Marcellus and the Cana Woodford saw an increase of two rigs and one rig, respectively.
The Permian Basin lost two rigs this week, bringing the number of active rigs in that basin to 457. The Permian currently accounts for more than half of the nation’s total rig count.
The DJ-Niobrara, Utica and Williston all dropped one rig apiece.
==================
Related stock: Keppe Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, May 10, 2019

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.7 Buy
01/21/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 1.56 Buy
01/21/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 1.5 Hold DDM
01/21/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Commercial Trust 1.45 0 Hold
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.5 Neutral
04/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.47 1.7 Buy
04/24/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.5 Neutral DDM
04/24/19 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.58 Buy
04/24/19 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.49 1.5 Hold DDM

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.55 Buy DDM
01/22/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 0 Hold
01/22/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.5 Buy
01/23/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.21 Neutral DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.27 2.4 Buy
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.32 Buy
01/28/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.35 Add DDM
02/15/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.24 2.21 Neutral
02/28/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.3 2.55 Buy
03/01/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.5 Buy
03/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.29 2.4 Buy DCF
03/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.26 2.6 Buy
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.28 2.19 Neutral
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.38 2.6 Buy
04/04/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.6 Buy
04/24/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 0 Buy
04/25/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.19 Neutral DDM
04/25/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.61 Buy DDM
04/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.37 2.31 Neutral DDM

Fortune Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 9.7 10.68 Buy

Stock calls for 10 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.615 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Frencken 0.615 0 Buy
05/10/19 CIMB Frencken 0.615 0.9 Add
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x FY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Hongkong Land 6.97 8.02 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners OCBC 11.31 12.2 Neutral
05/10/19 CIMB OCBC 11.31 12 Hold
05/10/19 CIMB OUE Commercial 0.5 0.57 Hold
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.39 Hold RNAV (55% discount)
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Medical 0.445 0.62 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.445 0.48 Neutral DCF

US tariffs against China have taken effect!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-tariff-increase-200b-chinese-040333406.html

Let's see how China will retaliate after the US$200b tariffs.

Many analysts and economists had said that China had nothing more to tax but they're dead wrong. Why?

China can make up the shortfalls by increasing the tariffs on already taxed US goods and this is unlimited.  Tariffs can go up to 1,000% or higher until the US goods cannot be sold in China anymore.

It will be interesting to see what will happen when the US & China don't trade with each other.

Thursday, May 9, 2019

India is fudging its own economic data.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/india-s-incredulous-data--economists-create-own-benchmarks-11517966

India is fudging its own economic data.

Hahaha! Why am I not surprised?


Food Empire - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.58 0.69 Buy
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.56 0.69 Buy

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/22/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.27 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)