The US-China financial war talk is on the rise.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-china-trade-war-is-escalating.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-china-trade-war-is-escalating_11.html

The US-China financial war talk is on the rise after we first posted the 4 stages of escalation on 9 August 2019.

The China central bank ex-bankers warned about this on 10 August 2019, a day after our posting.

There is a more detailed discussion on this today (see below).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-may-foreign-exchange-reserves-093000109.html

First of all, we're not fearmongering to profit from this.  We're just stating the possible scenarios that might happen which derived from our analysis based on our financial knowledge.  It is just a coincident that the financial war talk is becoming a topic after our first post.

Are we clairvoyants? We wished we were but we were not.

We agree that we're not always right but we're also seldom wrong. Heehee!

The Dow Jones index fell 800 points because of 2-10y inverted yield curve.

The US markets fell heavily because of 2-10y inverted yield curve.

We had explained the abnormality of the inverted yield curve below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-us-treasurys-situation-is-getting.html

We also had reminded our readers to watch the 2-10y yield curve closely in Dec 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-us-3-year-and-5-year-yield-curve.html

The US markets heavy plunges yesterday had slaughtered many investors who bought into the euphoria of the delayed tariffs.

The Hong Kong police are incapable to protect the innocent.

The HK police should have taken a much tougher stance against the rioters.  It was pretty obvious that the China reporter from Global Times had been taken as a hostage because he was tied up against his will and the circumstance had escalated from rioting into a hostage situation.

The HK police should have fired many rubber bullets at the rioters to disperse them so that the police can bulldoze its ways through to save the hostage but the HK police didn't.  The HK police have no capability and competency to save an innocent person.  The HK police show that they don't know how to handle the situation and have inadequate training to assess the situation.

Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.71	0	Buy
04/26/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.8	0	Buy

Hock Lian Seng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	Hock Lian Seng	0.33	0	Buy on weakness

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.51	0	Buy
03/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.5	2.79	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
04/01/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.52	0	Buy
06/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.38	2.79	Buy

Stock calls for 14 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/14/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.09	1.4	Buy
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.6	0.54	Neutral	PER14x FY20
08/14/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.42	4.15	Outperform
08/14/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.62	2.78	Add	DCF
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.62	2.55	Neutral	DCF
08/14/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.62	2.91	Hold
08/14/19	phillip	Comfortdelgro	2.62	2.99	Accumulate	PER18.6x FY19
08/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.62	2.95	Buy
08/14/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.62	2.59	Hold
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.24	1.68	Buy	DCF, PER28x FY19
08/14/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.215	0	Buy
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
08/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.285	Buy
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.66	0.94	Buy	DCF
08/14/19	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.5	0	Buy on weakness
08/14/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.28	1.43	Buy
08/14/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.18	3.61	Buy
08/14/19	DIR	Venture	15.28	17.9	Outperform
08/14/19	OCBC	Venture	15.28	18.42	Buy	PER14x
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.05	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.05	4.5	Buy
08/14/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.13	1.68	Buy

The US will close 12,000 retailers in 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/25-retailers-already-announced-close-132806255.html

The US economy is deteriorating fast and furious because 12,000 retailers will close down in 2019.  If 3 people are needed to manage a retail shop, there will be 36,000 retrenched people.

Trump's tariffs are expediting this shutdown.

No frenzy buying in the stock markets after the US delays the China tariffs.

There isn't any frenzy buying in the stock market today after the US delays the China tariffs.

What does this show?

This shows that President Trump has completely lost his credibility because the current investors don't want to be trapped by his gambit.  He may tweet again next week to slaughter the investors who buy into this euphoria.  This uncertainty is holding back many investors.

Trump is losing his power to manipulate the stock markets now which is a piece of great news.

Trump has backed down from his tariffs in Sept 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-august-13-2019-124507840.html

Trump has decided to defer his tariffs to December 2019 instead.  Hahaha!

Didn't we tell you that Trump would back down!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

Hahaha! Trump shoves farm products down PM Abe's throat.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-president-trump-asked-japan-pm-to-buy-farm-products-kyodo-11805390

PM Abe will lose his supporters if he agrees to US farm imports because most of his supporters are farmers too.  The farm sector is a very sensitive topic in Japan.

HMI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	HMI	0.540	0.77	Buy
02/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.535	0.73	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	phillip	HMI	0.550	0.77	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.540	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY20
05/15/19	phillip	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	CIMB	HMI	0.530	0.68	Add	DCF
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.545	0.66	Buy	DCF
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.635	0.73	Buy	DCF
07/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.660	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
07/08/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.660	0.66	Hold	DCF, accept offer at $0.73
07/08/19	CIMB	HMI	0.660	0.68	Add	offer at $0.73
07/09/19	phillip	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.965	0.68	Sell	PB0.8x
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.05	1.12	Hold	PER10x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.14	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x
03/13/19	Lim & Tan	Hi-P	1.75	0	Avoid	overvalued
04/09/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.63	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
06/11/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.29	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	PER12x FY20

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Haw Par	12.39	0	Buy

Stock calls for 13 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.6	Add	PER10x FY20
08/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.985	0.9	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/13/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.52	Buy	PER10.5x FY20
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.85	Buy
08/13/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.04	10.68	Buy
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.04	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	9.04	11	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
08/13/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	6.98	7.29	Hold
08/13/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.06	1.23	Add
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.525	0.73	Buy	PER13x FY19
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy
08/13/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.66	0.9	Add
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.66	0.82	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy	PER8.5x
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.235	0.23	Neutral	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.9	1.16	Buy	PER14.5x FY20
08/13/19	CIMB	Sasseur	0.805	0.94	Add	DDM
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.18	0.96	Sell	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.235	0.265	Hold
08/13/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.26	3.45	Accumulate	Sum of parts
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.26	3.4	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/13/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.26	3.6	Add	Sum of parts
08/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.26	3.32	Hold
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.26	3.25	Hold	EV/Ebitda6.3x
08/13/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.45	1.65	Hold	DCF
08/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.2	8.5	Buy
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.2	8.53	Buy	PB0.8x
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.2	0	Buy on weakness
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Venture	14.76	18.88	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	14.76	16.3	Buy	PER13x FY19
08/13/19	CIMB	Venture	14.76	16.28	Add	PER12,5x
08/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	14.76	17.7	Buy
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	14.76	18.6	Buy	PER13.7x FY20
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	14.76	0	Hold
08/13/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.04	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts

The US police are doing violent crackdowns on US protestors!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/portland-oregon-braces-far-rally-050932238.html

Hey! Where's the human rights group?

Where is democracy in the US?

A violent crackdown on US protestors is unacceptable and is the work of a thuggish regime!

Mahathir skins SG again after attending our National Day Parade.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/malaysia-develop-480-mln-oil-072309235.html

Mahathir wants to destroy our oil trading hub.

Let's recap what he's done insofar.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/mahathir-is-skinning-singapore-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/here-we-go-again-mahathir-is-at-it-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/singapore-ah-bengs-ranting-about.html

Singapore government has revised down SG GDP growth by close to 100%.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-cuts-growth-outlook-trade-war-bites-052350837--finance.html

Omg! SG government revises down our GDP growth tremendously (a complete wipeout).  Financially speaking, it will be a total loss.

How did SG end up having to cut its forecast by such a big margin? This was because our government had underestimated the US-China trade war since PM Lee thought that China would lose and bend over.  However, we disagreed with PM Lee in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/pm-lee-has-made-judgment-error-on-china.html

Omg! Argentina is going into bankruptcy again!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-set-sell-off-argentina-030759260.html

The investors who bought the Argentinian 100-year bonds are going to suffer heavy losses.

https://qz.com/1686230/argentinas-100-year-bonds-dive-on-primary-election-shock/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

What are the world crises now?

US-China trade war
Brexit
Japan-Korea trade war
India-Pakistan (Kashmir) military war
Iran sanction
Venezuela sanction
HK protests
North Korea

Hong Kong protestors are back at the airport and hospital.

Passengers are stuck at the airport because their flights are cancelled today.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-airport-reopens-flights-cancelled-protests-11803916

The protestors also occupy the hospital now.