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Friday, September 13, 2019

ECB cut rates and restarted QE.

ECB has cut its rate to -0.5% and restarted a quantitative easing of EU$20B per month.

This ECB move has angered Trump and his fury is flaring.

It is not surprising that the ECB cuts its rates because the EU is sliding into a recession.  Germany, the strongest and biggest economy, will enter into a recession this quarter and the rest of Europe will follow suit.  Therefore, the EU is in a dire need of a strong stimulus package to revive itself.

However, this reprise is only temporary and can be as short as 6 months.  Thereafter, a recession will creep in after March 2020.  Why?

The 2nd TLTRO will end in March 2020 and this reduces the efficacy of the oomph.  Furthermore, the ISM PMI has just contracted in the US (below 50).  The US economy will feel the impact of the PMI contraction (reported in Sept 2019) in as short as 6 months time (March 2020).  Thus, the USA and the EU are in a precarious situation after March 2020 if nothing is being done to prevent the impending recession in 2020.

1 comment:

Eric Ho said...