https://finance.yahoo.com/news/president-trump-will-be-out-of-office-by-march-2020-says-anthony-scaramucci-210434593.html
The Republicans are trying to remove their own President by March 2020. Hahaha!
It is not easy to impeach the US President as 2/3 of the congress members (including the Republicans) have to approve the impeachment.
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Most likely Trump will continue to 2024, with a shallow recession around 2024/25. From now (end-2019) until 2029/30 US stocks can go up another 200%-300%.
I'm not as optimistic about the US economic growth in 2020. I think the US recession will happen after March 2020.
Why? This is because I see the stars are starting to align and the consternation is happening due to the following:
1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
Therefore, I see March 2020 as the end of a good period.
Mar 2020 is too early. Earliest recession will more likely be mid-2021. The good thing is that this will be a mild recession. S&P 500 will drop peak to trough about -30% to -35%.
It will be just a blip in the hundreds of percent gains from now until the blow off top 10+ years later.
2015 to 2035 is the peak secular cycle for millennials, just as 1982 to 2000 was the peak secular bull for baby boomers.
Just like 1987 Black Monday, 1990 recession & the 1998 Asian & Emerging Markets crash were all ultimately just blips on the baby boomer secular boom.
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