An analysis of US rates.

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, 10-year Treasury yield, and 10-year TIPS yield: 

As we can see from the chart, the TIPS rate (-0.06%) is having an upward trajectory and will be moving into positive territory soon.  When the TIPs' rate is in a negative zone, it means the yield is negative after factoring in the inflation rate.  In other words, inflation has eroded your capital investment.  The reverse is true when the TIPS rate turns positive.

When the TIPS rate is positive, it will change many investors' mindsets.  This is because many investors won't invest in stocks that yield returns that are lesser than the existing elevated inflation (8.5%) as TIPS provides a better risk-free investment.  Thus, many investors will be selling low-yielding stocks when the TIPS rate turns positive.

Let's take a look at the yield differential rate between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries.

We can observe from the chart that a US recession (grey region) will usually happen when the yield is inverted (below zero) between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries.  The yield had inverted recently and we should expect a US recession in the near future.  Let's watch how this will pan out.