How realistic was Deutsche Bank's (DB) prediction that the US recession would happen in 2023?

DB had predicted that the US recession would happen in late 2023.  Therefore, we will be analyzing DB's prediction to see how realistic it is.

DB had projected in April 2022 that the US would achieve a 3% GDP growth in 2022.  The GDP growth was reduced from 4.6% in December 2021.  This was in line with the US conference board's prediction of 3% GDP growth in 2022.

However, DB projected that the US would be having incremental GDP growth quarterly in 2022 which ran counter to the quarterly US conference board's trajectory.

From the graph above, we could see that the US GDP growth would be experiencing an upward trajectory in 2022 before declining in 2023.  Conversely, the US conference board projected a less sanguine outlook in 2022.

On the contrary, DB had projected that the world's real GDP would be declining from 2022 to 2024.  Therefore, we would find it hard for the US to achieve a growing economy in 2022.

Let's look for alternative research to verify DB's projection.

The Bank of America had noted that the company's buybacks had been declining.  This would indicate that the companies were keeping their cash to prepare for the tough road ahead which defied the rosy outlook painted by DB in 2022.

Furthermore, the quarterly earnings and revenue growth were projected to decline in 2022 which also defied DB's rosy outlook.

In conclusion, we can dismiss DB's prediction as being too optimistic and the US recession may come sooner than the expected late 2023.