Search This Blog

Friday, May 31, 2019

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again!

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again.  No wonder he keeps siding with the USA because he belittles China too much.

Yes, China cannot take down the US but the US also cannot take down China.  Just look at Russia!

The US cannot take down Russia even though the US economy and military prowess are much bigger.  Why? This is because both countries have large nuclear arsenals and going to war with each other is self-annihilating.  It will be an internecine war with China too.

China's economy will overtake the US in less than a decade if China GDP is still growing at the current rate.  The earliest will be in 2025 and the latest by 2030.  If we use PPP to measure the GDP, China is already the largest GDP in the world as compiled by PWC.

China is just as resilient as the US because it has the support of 1.4B people.  The large local market size is able to revitalize China economy when there is an economic war with the US.

ECB's simulation also showed that China would win the trade war.  How did our PM Lee derive his conclusion?

Look like our PM Lee has lost touch with the China situation.  I'm very worried about SG future now after reading his speech.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms.

This will force companies to choose to do businesses either in the US or in China.  Who started this? USA!

Look like Google and Microsoft will be on the blacklist.  Many semiconductor manufacturers will be on the list too.

The business climate has changed.  Ceos have to choose between the USA and China now.

At the end of the day, all businesses will have a much smaller pie now because they cannot do businesses in both countries (US and China).

China has reaffirmed the friendship with Malaysia with a communique.

Communique - "Friendship Forever China-Malaysia"

This lengthy public article with 1,171 words was published on the embassy's FB signified an extraordinary milestone that Singapore couldn't achieve with China.  I am kinda worried about the strengthened relationship between China and Malaysia because SG will be marginalized by this strong bonding that SG has forsaken.

India got backstabbed by the USA!

We've been warning that the US is not a reliable and credible country.

India and SG must learn from history.

When you take history seriously, history will repeat itself.

Turkey's economy has worsen!

The Turkish economy has shrunk by 2.6% in Q1.  This is really a piece of bad news as a weakening economy will lead to a weakening lira and create a vicious cycle.  Ultimately, this will cause a collapse in the Turkish stock market.

Watch out for Turkish development as this may lead to the European Financial Crisis (EFC).

M1 - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 Kim Eng M1 2.09 1.63 Sell
01/04/19 Phillip M1 2.08 2.06 Accept Offer Offer $2.06
01/08/19 OCBC M1 2.06 2.06 Accept Offer Offer $2.06
01/14/19 DMG & Partners M1 2.07 2.06 Neutral Offer $2.06
01/29/19 CIMB M1 2.06 2.06 Hold Offer $2.06
02/12/19 Kim Eng M1 2.04 1.77 Sell
03/07/19 OCBC M1 2.05 2.06 Accept Offer Offer $2.06

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 Lim & Tan Lian Beng 0.515 0 Buy on weakness

KSH - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/19/18 OCBC KSH 0.525 0.81 Buy
11/19/18 Lim & Tan KSH 0.525 0 Buy
02/15/19 OCBC KSH 0.52 0.81 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC KSH 0.535 0.81 Buy
05/31/19 Lim & Tan KSH 0.45 0 Buy

Stock calls for 31 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/31/19 Amfrasers Accordia Golf Trust 0.585 0.7 Buy
05/31/19 UOB Kay Hian IHH Healthcare 1.79 2.07 Buy Ringgit $6.30 target price, PER32.8x FY2020
05/31/19 Lim & Tan KSH 0.45 0 Buy
05/31/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.24 0.34 Buy Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
05/31/19 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.6 0.62 Hold
05/31/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.625 0.61 Neutral DCF
05/31/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.625 0.8 Buy

Microsoft has banned Huawei from its ecosystem.

Microsoft is already a US state agent many years ago and I'm not surprised by this.

We've reported on MS before (See the posts below).

Hahaha! Canada has to deal with its own waste now.

Canada cannot ship its waste to the Philippines and Malaysia now.  Hahaha!

It is forced to deal with its own waste now by finding its own landfill, building its own waste burning furnace, etc.  The bottom line is the air won't be as clean as before in Canada anymore.

The US stock markets are getting precarious.

The risk-free (10y bond yield) rate is at 2.22% and it is below the Fed's interest rates bandwidth of 2.25%-2.5%.  This will increase the Fed's pressure to reduce its interest rates as the current rates are no longer relevant and effective to manage the market expectation.  This exposes the fragility of the risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  Furthermore, there are some yield curve inversions which denote a forthcoming recession.

Is a recession coming soon?

A recession is highly likely to happen in our view. Why?

The US corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is giving a red light warning now.

Whenever there was a credit cycle peak in the past, there would be a US recession.  The credit cycle peaks happened in 1990 (oil shock recession), 2000 (tech bubble burst), 2008 (US housing collapse, Lehmans bro minibonds) and 2018 (forthcoming recession).

The credit cycle had peaked in 2018 and the US-China trade war started in 2018 too.  The world economies have started to slow down now due to the trade war.  Consequently, the US bond markets are showing the low-risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  With so many negative factors in this global environment now, a recession is inevitable.

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Koufu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.63 0.8 Buy PER17x FY19
03/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.67 0.95 Buy PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19 Lim & Tan Koufu 0.67 0.85 Buy PER18x FY19
04/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.805 0.95 Buy
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.77 0.8 Hold PER17x FY19
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.75 0.95 Buy

Kimly - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.24 0.27 Neutral
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.245 0.24 Neutral DCF
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.24 0.24 Neutral
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.245 0.23 Neutral DCF

Keppel Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/22/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.18 1.31 Buy DCF
01/22/19 CIMB Keppel Reit 1.18 1.34 Add DDM
01/22/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Reit 1.18 1.06 Neutral DDM
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.18 1.35 Buy
03/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.28 1.35 Buy DDM
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Reit 1.23 1.06 Neutral
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.29 1.35 Buy DDM
04/18/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Reit 1.24 1.12 Neutral DDM
04/18/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.24 1.38 Buy DCF
04/18/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Reit 1.24 0 Hold
04/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.21 1.37 Buy DDM
04/24/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.21 1.4 Buy DCF
04/25/19 CIMB Keppel Reit 1.23 1.34 Add DDM
05/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.21 1.37 Buy

Stock calls for 30 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/30/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.95 2.16 Buy
05/30/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.149 0.28 Buy DCF
05/30/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.83 8.25 Neutral DCF
05/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.21 1.37 Buy
05/30/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.45 1.6 Hold PB1.45x
05/30/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.82 1.99 Hold Buy @ $1.81

The US broke promise on South China Sea.

It was the US who broke the promise on the South China Sea.  We reported this in our previous post below.

Furthermore, it was the US Navy that accompanied China to reclaim the South China Sea islands after WW2.  China has the documentation and pictures to prove this reclamation in the South China Sea.  Who wouldn't take pictures of this historical event back then?

A pro-China Malaysia is a threat to Singapore economically. Why?

A pro-China Malaysia is a threat to SG because it will render SG a less strategic partner to China.

Currently, China trusts Malaysia more than SG despite having some hiccups with Malaysia.  The ECRL, BKK-KL HSR and Melaka Gateway projects display the strategic alliance and trust between China and Malaysia.  Furthermore, Malaysia has bought China military armaments while SG has not because the US doesn't allow it.

Although SG is a Chinese majority country and Chinese-speaking nation, China trusts a Malay-speaking Malaysia more than SG now.  Speaking the same language used to be an advantage but China had become smarter.  China only believes in what you do, not what you say anymore.  This puts SG in a much lower priority than Malaysia since actions speak louder than words.  Thus, a pro-China Malaysia will start to erode SG economically over time.

How did the US fudge the US-China trade data?

The US claimed that it exported US$120B goods to China in 2018 but excluded the US$37.5B HK exports.  HK is part of China but the US doesn't include the HK trade data in the US-China trade data.  Furthermore, the US also didn't include the exported US services to China (US$72B including HK) because it wanted to exaggerate the US-China trade deficit.

For your information, I culled and calculated the aforesaid figures from the US census bureau website.

Thus, in total, the US exported US$229.5B worth of goods and services to China in 2018 which was almost double the trade figure that was stated by the US.

The US also will exclude military sales from the trade data and this exclusion will benefit the US since it is a large military weapons exporter.  The US-SG goods trade deficit in 2018 was US$5.9B but the US-SG services trade surplus was US$12.4B.  Therefore, the US had a trade surplus of US$6.5B (nett figure) with SG in 2018.  However, this US trade surplus of US$6.5B was an understatement because SG bought a lot of US military weapons which were excluded from the trade data.

The ungrateful US keeps talking about the US-SG goods trade deficit and puts SG on its currency watchlist without any valid reason.  Who is the real victim here when SG has a total trade deficit of US$6.5B with the US (excludes military sales)?

Rare earth processing is not so easy.

Rare earth processing is an esoteric industry because it is highly toxic and will pollute the environment.  Furthermore, there are very few talented people who possess such knowledge.

It is estimated that there are about 100 PHD holders in this specialized field in China.  However, there is no such talent outside of China.  This is the reason that China is able to dominate this field with its rare earth processing knowledge.  Thus, the US must be stealing information and knowledge from China if it is able to develop any advanced processing capability.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

MAS's response to US watchlist report will not get SG off the list.

It is a common knowledge in the world that SG uses currency and not interest rates policy to manage its economy.  Therefore, it is pointless to respond to the US watchlist report because the US won't listen due to its unilateralism culture.  SG is partly to blame for grooming the unilateralism mindset in the US because we've been supporting and pursuing US political interests.  The day of reckoning is here and we've only ourselves to blame.

Keppel KBS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.61 0.78 Buy DCF
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.68 0.8 Buy DCF
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.705 0.8 Buy

Keppel Infrastructure - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Infrastructure 0.515 0.58 Buy DDM
03/15/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Infrastructure 0.485 0 Hold
04/16/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Infrastructure 0.48 0.58 Buy DDM

Keppel DC Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.36 1.45 Accumulate
01/23/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.44 1.52 Accumulate DDM
01/23/19 CIMB Keppel DC Reit 1.44 1.51 Add DDM
01/23/19 OCBC Keppel DC Reit 1.44 1.6 Buy
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 1.44 1.6 Buy DCF
02/15/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.45 1.52 Accumulate
03/12/19 OCBC Keppel DC Reit 1.44 1.6 Buy
04/08/19 Amfrasers Keppel DC Reit 1.47 1.62 Buy DDM
04/09/19 CIMB Keppel DC Reit 1.48 1.54 Add DDM
04/16/19 OCBC Keppel DC Reit 1.49 1.64 Buy
04/16/19 Lim & Tan Keppel DC Reit 1.49 0 Hold
04/18/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.49 1.59 Accumulate DDM, PB1.37x FY19
05/02/19 Amfrasers Keppel DC Reit 1.51 1.62 Buy

Stock calls for 29 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/29/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.148 0.15 Neutral PER10x
05/29/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.86 1 Buy DDM

The US is targeting Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam for the trade war now.

Vietnam will definitely be slaughtered by the US in the future because of its burgeoning trade surpluses with the US.  The trade surplus will keep increasing because many foreign companies are using Vietnam as a manufacturing base.

Singapore is the most aggrieved party because SG uses its currency as a monetary tool since the small population and international trading render the interest rate policy as ineffective in managing its economy.  SG will suffer greatly if the US sanctions us because we cannot use interest rate policy to manage our economy.

Malaysia is being punished because it is getting pro-China and is an Islamic country.  The western superpower doesn't like Muslims at all.

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Malaysia was glad that the US didn't sign the TPP agreement.

If Malaysia were part of the original TPP, it couldn't send back or sue the US and Japan for dumping waste in its homeland.

Malaysia would need to compensate the US and Japan for their losses under the original TPP.

What a relief for Malaysia!

Federal express (FedEx) is also a US state agent!

FedEx is also a US state agent and is working discreetly with the US government to channel China posts and packages to the US.

The lame excuse of rerouting error is really ridiculous because it is an expensive error to make to reroute to the US.

Keppel Corp - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 OCBC Keppel Corp 5.81 7.25 Buy Sum of parts
01/10/19 DIR Keppel Corp 6.18 7.15 Buy Cut from $7.86, Sum of parts
01/23/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.17 8.28 Add
01/25/19 OCBC Keppel Corp 6.13 7.55 Buy
01/25/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.13 8.41 Add Sum of parts
01/28/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.2 0 Hold
01/29/19 Amfrasers Keppel Corp 6.14 7.5 Hold
01/29/19 Macquarie Keppel Corp 6.14 8.2 Outperform Sum of parts
02/21/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.32 8.41 Add Sum of parts
03/12/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.1 0 Hold
03/26/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.17 8.41 Add
04/15/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.62 8.41 Add Sum of parts
04/22/19 OCBC Keppel Corp 6.74 7.83 Buy
04/22/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.74 0 Hold
05/08/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.72 8.41 Add Sum of parts

Jumbo - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/15/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.415 0.44 Hold PER23x FY19
02/15/19 CIMB Jumbo 0.415 0.52 Add PER21x FY20
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.415 0.41 Hold Buy @ $0.37
03/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.405 0.41 Hold PER20x FY19, Buy @ $0.37
03/29/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.395 0.5 Buy PER23x FY19/20
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.405 0.51 Buy PER23x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.405 0.41 Hold PER20x FY19, Buy @ $0.37
05/16/19 CIMB Jumbo 0.405 0.52 Add PER21x FY20

Jardine C&C - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 DBS Vickers Jardine C&C 35.28 43.1 Buy
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Jardine C&C 35.52 39.1 Buy Sum of parts (16% discount)

Stock calls for 28 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/28/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.45 2.82 Add
05/28/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.475 0.6 Add
05/28/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.26 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.26 0.21 Sell
05/28/19 CIMB Mapletree Commercial 1.93 2.03 Add
05/28/19 CIMB Suntec Reit 1.82 2.06 Add
05/28/19 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.805 0.86 Hold

No trade deal between US and China in G20 summit in June 2019.

Trump has just indicated that the US is not ready to make a deal with China and the US tariffs on China goods will increase substantially.

The US economy must suffer quite a lot first before the US will renegotiate with China again.  It will take some time for the bad US economic numbers to surface.  We just need to be patient.

Monday, May 27, 2019

Japfa - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 CIMB Japfa 0.82 0.9 Add Sum of parts
01/30/19 Kim Eng Japfa 0.81 0.99 Buy
03/01/19 CIMB Japfa 0.765 0.9 Add Sum of parts
03/05/19 UOB Kay Hian Japfa 0.705 0.98 Buy Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY19
03/05/19 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.705 0.8 Buy Sum of parts (15% discount), PER11.4x FY19
03/14/19 CIMB Japfa 0.715 0.63 Reduce Sum of parts
03/21/19 Kim Eng Japfa 0.65 1.05 Buy Sum of parts
04/02/19 Kim Eng Japfa 0.665 1.05 Buy
05/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Japfa 0.605 0.73 Buy Sum of parts
05/03/19 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.605 0.61 Hold Sum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/27/19 Kim Eng Japfa 0.575 0.93 Buy Sum of parts

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/12/19 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.415 0.57 Hold DCF
03/08/19 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.43 0.45 Neutral
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.435 0.45 Neutral
05/22/19 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.44 0.55 Neutral DCF
05/23/19 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.44 0.4 Hold

Jadason - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Jadason 0.02 0.066 Add
05/13/19 CIMB Jadason 0.038 0.059 Add PB1x CY19

Stock calls for 27 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/27/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.28 4 Buy RNAV (25% discount)
05/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.44 2.65 Buy DDM
05/27/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.265 0.27 Hold
05/27/19 Kim Eng Japfa 0.575 0.93 Buy Sum of parts
05/27/19 CIMB Penguin 0.445 0.72 Add PB1x FY19
05/27/19 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.61 0.67 Neutral DCF

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Apple is resorting to selling customers' data to make up for revenue losses in China. Hahaha!

Database selling is a lucrative business because the same set of data can be sold many times.  Apple is caught selling its customers' data and many American firms are doing the same thing.  Is Apple trying to make up for the revenue losses in China? Hahaha!

Baltic dry index - 1068

Today, Friday, May 24 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 2 points, reaching 1068 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 983

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, May 24, 2019

Google has just killed its own future!


Google acted as a US state agent by terminating its Android services with Huawei.  This has raised an alarming signal to other nations that they cannot depend on "free" services from Google because it will pursue US political interests.  Therefore, China, India and the EU will develop their own mobile and PC platforms in the future to prevent the same occurrence from happening to them.  Nobody wants to be held hostage by the US anymore.

These alternative platforms will marginalize Google services in the future and make Google weaker.  This is exactly the same significant mistake made by Nokia in the past when Nokia didn't focus on smartphone developments.

Personally, I would like to see Linux ecosystem being developed worldwide so that we won't be held hostage by anybody.

Wow! Li Huan Wu has gotten married in South Africa!

This is Lee Hsien Yang's 2nd son!

ISOTeam - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/18/19 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.22 0.23 Neutral DCF
05/15/19 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.22 0.29 Buy DCF

ISDN - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/23/19 CIMB ISDN 0.215 0.32 Add PER10x CY20