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Thursday, November 30, 2023

US GDP growth is 5.2% for Q3 2023. Is it really that good?

Let's break up the GDP components for our analysis.

GDP growth=Government spendings+Investments+Consumptions+Net Exports

5.2% = 0.94% + 1.82% + 2.44% + (-0.04) = 5.16% (Rounded off to 5.2%)

As we can see from the GDP components, the 2 biggest contributors are Investments and consumptions.  The US consumers and firms are spending way beyond their means now and this can be reflected in the default and bankruptcy rates.


The US bankruptcy filings are at an elevated high in 2023.  Many US firms have overstretched themselves.

Thus, the latest US GDP growth may look good but it is seeding a bigger danger in the future because consumers and firms can't continue relying on debts for a long period.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Civmec - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

01/04/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.58

1.18

Buy

PER12x FY23

01/10/23

Kim Eng

Civmec

0.575

0.94

Buy


01/10/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.575

1.06

Buy


01/12/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.58

1.1

Buy

PER11x FY23

02/01/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.595

1.05

Buy


02/10/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.655

1.1

Buy

PER11x FY23

02/10/23

DBS Vickers

Civmec

0.655

0.95

Buy

PER8.5x FY23/24

02/13/23

Kim Eng

Civmec

0.66

1

Buy

PER9x FY23

04/03/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.685

0

Buy


04/05/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.695

1.1

Buy

PER11x FY23

05/11/23

DBS Vickers

Civmec

0.705

0.95

Buy


05/11/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.705

1.02

Buy


05/24/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.705

1.23

Buy

PER11x FY24

05/24/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.705

1.2

Buy


08/29/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.815

1.23

Buy


08/30/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.79

1.23

Buy

PER11x FY24

08/30/23

Kim Eng

Civmec

0.79

1.05

Buy

PER10x FY24

10/11/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.795

1.14

Accumulate


11/01/23

UOB Kay Hian

Civmec

0.79

1.23

Buy

PER11x FY24

11/01/23

Kim Eng

Civmec

0.79

1.05

Buy


11/20/23

Lim & Tan

Civmec

0.775

1.25

Accumulate


City Developments - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

01/05/23

phillip

City Developments

7.97

8.86

Accumulate


01/06/23

DMG & Partners

City Developments

8.02

9.75

Buy


01/17/23

CIMB

City Developments

7.89

8.97

Add

RNAV

02/23/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

7.95

10.5

Buy

RNAV (35% discount)

02/24/23

UOB Kay Hian

City Developments

7.84

9.7

Buy

RNAV (30% discount)

02/27/23

CIMB

City Developments

7.83

8.97

Add


02/27/23

Citi Research

City Developments

7.83

10.29

Buy


03/10/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

7.38

10.5

Buy


03/16/23

CIMB

City Developments

7.08

8.97

Add

RNAV

03/29/23

Lim & Tan

City Developments

7.33

9.27

Accumulate


03/31/23

DMG & Partners

City Developments

7.37

9.75

Buy

RNAV (45% disc)

04/06/23

DMG & Partners

City Developments

7.35

9.75

Buy

RNAV (45% disc)

04/27/23

OCBC

City Developments

7.32

8.97

Buy


04/27/23

CLSA

City Developments

7.32

6.68

Sell

Cut from $9.86, RNAV (45% disc)

04/28/23

UOB Kay Hian

City Developments

6.91

8

Buy

RNAV (40% disc)

05/22/23

CIMB

City Developments

6.89

8.97

Add

RNAV

05/23/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

6.84

10.5

Buy


05/23/23

Lim & Tan

City Developments

6.84

8.59

Accumulate


06/19/23

phillip

City Developments

7.14

8.33

Accumulate

RNAV (45% disc)

06/23/23

CIMB

City Developments

6.8

8.97

Add

RNAV

06/23/23

DMG & Partners

City Developments

6.8

8.8

Buy


07/04/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

6.77

10.5

Buy


07/05/23

Lim & Tan

City Developments

6.77

8.43

Accumulate


08/01/23

OCBC

City Developments

7.39

8.91

Buy


08/10/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

7.12

10.5

Buy


08/11/23

UOB Kay Hian

City Developments

6.99

8

Buy

RNAV (40% disc)

08/15/23

OCBC

City Developments

6.79

8.87

Buy

RNAV (25% disc)

08/16/23

phillip

City Developments

6.79

8.22

Buy

RNAV (45% disc)

08/30/23

DMG & Partners

City Developments

6.7

8.2

Buy

RNAV (45% disc)

09/29/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

6.55

10.5

Buy


09/29/23

CIMB

City Developments

6.55

8.97

Add

RNAV

11/24/23

DBS Vickers

City Developments

6.21

10.5

Buy


11/24/23

CIMB

City Developments

6.21

8.97

Add

RNAV

11/24/23

Lim & Tan

City Developments

6.21

7.95

Accumulate


11/29/23

phillip

City Developments

6.1

8.22

Buy

RNAV (45% disc)