The Iran war situation report. - Part 65

If Trump were to agree on this ceasefire extension by another 60 days, it would be bad for his mid-term election in November because his campaign would begin in June without any good news.  He couldn't end his illegal Iran war and he also didn't secure any good deal from China.  Furthermore, the US is still being dogged by the high inflation.

The US is just kicking the can down the road because it can't win the Iran war and Iran is unwilling to relent to the US demands.

Even with this ceasefire extension, there is no guarantee that there won't be any attack from both sides during the ceasefire.  Thus, this on-going Iran war will continue to haunt the stock markets and affect Trump's election.

Olam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/06/26	Lim & Tan	Olam	0.86	0	Buy
04/24/26	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.04	1.35	Buy
05/04/26	Kim Eng	Olam	1.02	1.6	Buy	Sum of parts

OKP - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/25	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.565	0.93	Buy
06/06/25	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.755	0.97	Buy	PER8x FY25
01/15/26	Lim & Tan	OKP	1.26	0	Buy
02/04/26	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.81	0.93	Buy	PER11x FY26
03/05/26	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.78	1.03	Buy
04/02/26	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.69	1.03	Buy
05/28/26	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.82	1.03	Buy

Oiltek - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/25	phillip	Oiltek	1.22	1.48	Buy	PER20x FY25
03/21/25	Lim & Tan	Oiltek	1.16	1.43	Buy
03/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	1.15	1.44	Buy	PER20x FY25, PEG0.8x
04/10/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	0.96	1.44	Buy	PER20x FY25, PEG0.8x
04/16/25	Lim & Tan	Oiltek	1.16	1.5	Buy
05/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	0.53	0.48	Buy	Ex-bonus
06/09/25	Lim & Tan	Oiltek	0.605	0	Accumulate on weakness
07/03/25	Lim & Tan	Oiltek	0.56	0	Accumulate on weakness
07/15/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	0.67	0.8	Buy	PER27x FY26, PB0.9x
07/22/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	0.75	0.86	Buy	PER29x FY26, PB0.95x
07/31/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	0.89	1.05	Buy	PER33x FY26, PEG1x
08/04/25	phillip	Oiltek	0.98	1.18	Buy	PER35x FY26
09/10/25	Lim & Tan	Oiltek	1.1	0	Hold
02/12/26	Lim & Tan	Oiltek	0.62	0.94	Buy
02/12/26	CIMB	Oiltek	0.62	1.02	Add
03/13/26	phillip	Oiltek	0.8	1.18	Buy	PER35x FY26
03/16/26	CIMB	Oiltek	0.85	0.94	Add
04/07/26	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	1.87	2.78	Buy	PER28x FY27
04/07/26	phillip	Oiltek	1.87	2.72	Buy	PER24x FY27
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	2.27	2.78	Buy	PER28x FY27

Stock calls for 29 May 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/29/26	OCBC	ART	0.895	0.95	Buy
05/29/26	Lim & Tan	ART	0.895	1.08	Accumulate
05/29/26	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.355	0.51	Accumulate	Sum of parts
05/29/26	DBS Vickers	Seatrium	2.17	3	Buy	PB1.35x FY26
05/29/26	OCBC	Seatrium	2.17	2.79	Buy	PB
05/29/26	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	1.14	1.88	Buy	PER19x FY28, Ex-cash

US GDP forecast is being revised down.

Let's break down the GDP to see what had changed from the previous quarter.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q1 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.73 + 1.48 + 1.08 + (-1.3) = 1.99 (2)

Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) = 0.73 + 1.19 + 0.95 + (-1.25) = 1.62 (1.6)

The latest GDP estimate showed that there were further slowdown in investment (I) and consumption (C) that caused the GDP to be revised down.  Futhermore, the core PCE price was higher than the previous estimate which meant that the Iran war had continued to affect the US inflation.

OCBC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/12/25	Citi Research	OCBC	16.69	16.3	Hold	GGM, PB1.2x FY25
03/12/25	Jefferies	OCBC	16.69	18.5	Hold
03/21/25	phillip	OCBC	16.94	17.9	Accumulate
03/27/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	17.25	18.4	Accumulate
04/07/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	16.62	16.85	Hold	GGM, PB1.27x FY25
04/07/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.62	0	Hold
04/07/25	Citi Research	OCBC	16.62	15.7	Hold
04/08/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	15.47	14.4	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY26
04/10/25	Kim Eng	OCBC	14.42	14.94	Hold
04/15/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	15.01	16.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.27x FY25
04/22/25	DMG & Partners	OCBC	16.25	17.5	Neutral
04/23/25	CIMB	OCBC	16.38	17.2	Hold	GGM
05/09/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	16.16	14.4	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY26
05/09/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.16	17	Accumulate
05/09/25	Citi Research	OCBC	16.16	15.78	Hold
05/13/25	phillip	OCBC	16.23	17.1	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x FY25
05/13/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	16.23	19.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.38x FY26
05/19/25	Jefferies	OCBC	16.32	17	Hold
06/06/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.23	17.21	Accumulate on weakness
06/06/25	Citi Research	OCBC	16.23	15.8	Hold	GGM, PB1.2x
06/10/25	DMG & Partners	OCBC	16.37	17.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.11x FY26
06/10/25	CIMB	OCBC	16.37	17.2	Hold	GGM
06/12/25	phillip	OCBC	16.16	17.6	Accumulate
06/19/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.04	17.24	Accumulate
07/07/25	phillip	OCBC	16.48	17.6	Accumulate
07/16/25	CIMB	OCBC	17	17.2	Hold	GGM
07/18/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	17.08	19.25	Buy	GGM, PB1.38x FY26
08/01/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	16.87	14.4	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY26
08/01/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.87	17.46	Hold
08/04/25	Citi Research	OCBC	16.79	16.3	Hold
08/04/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	16.79	20.15	Buy	GGM, PB1.44x FY26
08/04/25	phillip	OCBC	16.79	16.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.25x FY25
08/04/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	16.79	15.8	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY26
08/05/25	MorningStar	OCBC	16.9	18.5	Buy
08/11/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.79	0	Hold
08/11/25	JPM	OCBC	16.79	20	Overweight
09/10/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	16.76	20.4	Buy	GGM, PB1.46x FY26
10/17/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	16.81	15.8	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY26
10/21/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	16.73	20.12	Buy	GGM, PB1.45x FY26
10/21/25	DMG & Partners	OCBC	16.73	17.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.11x FY26
10/21/25	Citi Research	OCBC	16.73	16.8	Hold
11/07/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	17.19	17.66	Accumulate on weakness
11/07/25	Citi Research	OCBC	17.19	20.3	Buy
11/10/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	17.78	19.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY26
11/10/25	phillip	OCBC	17.78	17	Neutral	GGM, PB1.29x FY25
11/10/25	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	17.78	20.22	Buy	GGM, PB1.45x FY26
11/10/25	CIMB	OCBC	17.78	19.5	Add	GGM
11/10/25	DMG & Partners	OCBC	17.78	18.7	Neutral
12/11/25	phillip	OCBC	18.95	20	Accumulate
01/05/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	19.85	20.22	Buy	GGM, PB1.45x FY26
01/06/26	Goldman Sachs	OCBC	19.96	21.2	Buy
01/06/26	Autonomous	OCBC	19.96	17	Underperform
01/07/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	20.18	23.65	Buy	GGM, PB1.7x FY26
01/09/26	JPM	OCBC	20.17	20.5	Neutral
01/27/26	CIMB	OCBC	21.04	23.4	Add	GGM
01/28/26	DMG & Partners	OCBC	21.42	21.3	Neutral
01/30/26	DBS Vickers	OCBC	21.35	23	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY27
01/30/26	phillip	OCBC	21.35	21.5	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.56x FY26
02/02/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	21.23	23.65	Buy	GGM, PB1.7x FY26
02/16/26	Citi Research	OCBC	21.11	24.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.8x FY26
02/25/26	DBS Vickers	OCBC	21.43	23	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY27
02/25/26	Lim & Tan	OCBC	21.43	21.41	Hold
02/26/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	21.4	24.85	Buy	GGM, PB1.76x FY26
02/26/26	CIMB	OCBC	21.4	23.4	Add	GGM
02/27/26	phillip	OCBC	21.34	22.3	Accumulate
03/25/69	Lim & Tan	OCBC	21.16	22.26	Accumulate on weakness
03/30/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	21.57	25.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.79x FY26
04/06/26	JPM	OCBC	22.38	20.5	Underweight
04/10/26	DMG & Partners	OCBC	22.19	23.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY26
04/16/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	22.88	25.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.79x FY26
04/21/26	DBS Vickers	OCBC	22.67	25.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.7x FY27
04/24/26	DMG & Partners	OCBC	21.8	24.65	Buy
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	21.9	25.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.79x FY26
05/08/26	DBS Vickers	OCBC	21.88	25.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.7x FY27
05/08/26	Lim & Tan	OCBC	21.88	22.86	Accumulate on weakness
05/11/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	21.92	26.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.9x FY26
05/11/26	phillip	OCBC	21.92	22	Neutral	GGM, PB1.6x FY26