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Monday, September 16, 2019

SIIC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/21/19 DBS Vickers SIIC 0.29 0.32 Hold PER13x FY19
08/13/19 DBS Vickers SIIC 0.235 0.265 Hold

SIA Engineering - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.39 2.7 Buy DCF
02/11/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.52 2.85 Buy DCF
02/11/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.52 2.47 Hold
02/11/19 phillip SIA Engineering 2.52 2.66 Neutral DCF
02/11/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.52 2.55 Hold
02/12/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.39 3.11 Add DCF
02/12/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.39 2.7 Hold DCF & PER16x FY20 & Div Yield 4.5% & EV/Ebitda11x
04/15/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.49 2.85 Buy
05/14/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.43 2.85 Buy DCF
05/14/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.43 2.43 Hold
05/14/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.43 2.55 Hold Buy @ $2.30
05/14/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.43 2.6 Hold Sum of parts
05/14/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.43 3.11 Add
07/02/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.51 2.85 Buy
07/05/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.72 3.01 Buy
07/08/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.89 3.11 Add DCF
07/29/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.65 2.55 Hold DCF, Buy @ $2.40
07/29/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.65 2.43 Hold
07/30/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.68 2.85 Hold
09/02/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.43 2.85 Buy DCF

SIA - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.5 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
01/24/19 CIMB SIA 9.5 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 CIMB SIA 9.87 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.87 11 Buy PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19 Lim & Tan SIA 9.87 0 Hold
02/18/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.76 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19 OCBC SIA 9.76 10.71 Buy
03/19/19 CIMB SIA 9.83 10.25 Hold
03/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.83 10.1 Hold Buy @ $9
04/16/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.88 10.1 Hold Sum of parts
04/16/19 OCBC SIA 9.88 11.02 Buy
05/17/19 CIMB SIA 9.4 10.14 Hold PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19 OCBC SIA 9.3 11.02 Buy
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.3 9.6 Hold Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.3 10.8 Buy PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.17 9.5 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60
06/19/19 CIMB SIA 9.17 10.04 Hold
08/01/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.67 9.5 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $9.10
08/01/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.67 10.8 Buy PB0.95x FY20
08/01/19 Lim & Tan SIA 9.67 0 Hold
08/02/19 CIMB SIA 9.2 10.04 Hold PB0.9x CY19

Stock calls for 16 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/16/19 Kim Eng AEM 1.19 1.5 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g
09/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.23 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda

Sunday, September 15, 2019

My observations of the HK protests. - Part 2

We had envisaged this to happen (anti-govt protestors VS pro-govt protestors) in our post yesterday.  This just happened today.

The Hong Kong protestors know nothing about the property market.

The PPI shows that HK property market surged in the past 10 years and the HK protestors put the blame on the HK government.  Let's seek out the truth so that you will understand that this is a worldwide phenomenon trend.

What happened roughly 10 years ago?  Do you still remember the Lehman Brothers' (LB) collapse in September 2008?  The US government commenced QE1, QE2 and QE3 after LB's collapse to revive its own economy, and kept its interest rates artificially low for a long time with the ensuing outcome of churning massive money supplies in the world.  The consequences of the US monetary easing policies inflated the worldwide stock and property markets.  Therefore, the main culprit is the US government.

Where's the proof?  SG is also faced with the same property situation.

SG property market also surged after 2008 (from below 100 to above 150) but our government implemented property measures a few years later to rein in the property prices.

However, the HK CEs didn't dare to change the HK housing policy because of Tung Chee Hwa's downfall.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

My observations of the HK protests.

From this video, we can tell that the organizers are facing some cash flow problems as they're keeping a tight rein of their funds.

The pro-china protestors have started to come out this weekend because the ordinary residents are fed up with these black protestors who disrupt their daily lives.

These black protestors have incurred the wrath of the general public and are also not getting paid on time.

I think the black protestors will dwindle in size in the future because they're not getting paid and they will also face the pro-China protestors which will make their protests more difficult and dangerous.  The black protestors know that the police will be restraint in hitting them but the pro-china protestors won't.

We've stated that these black protestors would be at the receiving end in the end.

Anyway, I wish HK the best and peace and order will return soon.

Hong Kong protests continue again.

The HK protests continue after the withdrawal of the extradition bill and revision in the housing policy.

We had stated before that the protests would continue even if the government relented.

The HK protestors will continue to protest no matter what the outcome is.  Why? No protest, No money!

The HK protestors are being paid to protest and they have to protest to get the money.  However, some of them are whining about not getting paid. Just look at the leaked video (he forgot to turn it off) of a HK protestor ranting about not getting paid.

Indonesian haze is back in Singapore now!

I can smell it in my home now!

Damn, I cannot do my favourite outdoor activities now.

Stay healthy, guys!

Hahaha! LSE condemns HKEX takeover offer.

LSE not only rejects HKEX's offer but also condemns the offer.

We've said before in our previous post that HK had everything to lose.

LSE has lost faith and confidence in HK's future which results in the rejection and condemnation.

Hong Kong protestors fabricated fake news to defame HK police. - Part 2

The truth is slowly unfolding about the woman who claimed that her eye was shot by HK police.

We posted a video previously showing no HK police were in the vicinity that could have shot her eye and the beanbag round had a short effective range.

She didn't lodge a police report and also didn't file a lawsuit against the police.  In the video, it was stated that she was offered HK$30m to pin the blame on the police but was later reduced to HK$5m to lie down as the police were getting closer to the truth with their investigations.  The police had applied to the court to retrieve her medical record from the hospital for further investigation because she rejected the police's request.

These were not innocent and ordinary protestors because they had a devious plan to smear the police and topple the government.  I've also seen online news about the protestors accusing the police of raping female protestors in the police stations and the police had killed a few protestors in the MRT stations.

Friday, September 13, 2019

TLTRO III will start on 19 September.

TLTRO III will last 3 years and end in 2022.  The interest spread has been removed and this will lower the interest rate.

If you don't know anything about TLTRO, please read our previous post below.

SHS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 phillip SHS 0.197 0.24 Accumulate PER10x FY19
03/08/19 phillip SHS 0.191 0.194 Neutral PB0.7x
05/21/19 phillip SHS 0.174 0 Cease coverage

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.06 1.27 Buy
01/04/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.07 1.13 Accumulate
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.08 1.15 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.09 1.25 Buy DCF
02/27/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.09 1.19 Buy
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.09 1.25 Buy PER25x FY19
02/27/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.09 1.22 Add PER22.2x FY20
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.09 1.11 Hold
03/04/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.09 1.3 Accumulate PER25x
03/05/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.09 1.24 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.08 1.25 Buy DCF
03/19/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.08 0.95 Sell DCF, PER19.5x FY19
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy
04/16/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.06 0.95 Sell DCF
04/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.04 1.11 Hold Buy @ $1
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy PER5x FY19
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.23 Buy DCF & PER21x
04/30/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.04 1.1 Hold PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.24 Buy DCF
04/30/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.04 1.19 Buy
05/02/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.03 1.3 Buy PER25x
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.1 1.23 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.1 1.25 Buy
06/14/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.09 0.95 Sell DCF
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.1 1.23 Buy
07/15/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.1 1.3 Buy PER25x
07/16/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.09 0.95 Sell DCF
07/30/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.11 1.32 Buy DCF
07/30/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.11 1.32 Buy PER25x FY20
07/31/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.15 0.96 Sell DCF
07/31/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.15 1.19 Buy
07/31/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.15 1.25 Add
08/01/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.16 1.3 Accumulate PER25x FY19
08/06/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.16 1.27 Outperform
08/13/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.18 0.96 Sell DCF
08/23/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.16 1.32 Buy
09/11/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.2 1.32 Buy

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/21/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 11.04 16.4 Buy
03/22/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 11.18 16.16 Buy
08/26/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 8.3 13.9 Buy

Stock calls for 13 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/13/19 Kim Eng Japfa 0.485 0.73 Buy Sum of parts
09/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.3 2.58 Buy DDM
09/13/19 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.86 4.25 Buy Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20

HK Carrie Lam is following the footstep of Tung Chee Hwa.

The HK's housing problem was caused by the British administration and Tung Chee Hwa was trying to resolve it during his term by releasing more land sales and building more public houses.  However, he was forced to step down because his housing policies would bring down property prices and rentals.

Will Carrie Lam face the same backlash as Tung Chee Hwa?  Let's see.

China has not given up on HK yet.

China has not given up on HK yet.  HK is, after all, China's child and the motherland will still take care of its own child no matter what wrong the child has done.

Was the Shenzhen's developments just a verbal warning to HK for the protests?  We'll have to wait and see then.

Prior to the pronouncement of the SZ developments, we had indicated that China would bail out HK if needed.  As predicted earlier, China has called up its SoEs to help HK now.

Wow! Vietnam can control inflation by cutting interest rates.

Wow! Vietnam economists must be awarded the Nobel prize for controlling inflation with interest rates cut.  It is an almost impossible task to do and Vietnam has the confidence to achieve it.

Let's see how Vietnam will accomplish this insurmountable task because this defies my economic knowledge.

Huawei's Kirin 990 is the best chip now.

Huawei's Kirin 990 is an all-in-one 5G chip that no other chip can match now.

It impressed many techies in the IFA event in Germany.  It can download a complete movie in 6 seconds while the 4G chip can only download 12% in 6 seconds.  It can also replace the background of a video instantaneously that the 4G chip cannot do.

I got swept away by Huawei's Kirin 990.  Kudos to Huawei!

Trump knows who are his friends and foes now.

Multiple bankruptcies had taught Trump a few things in life.

Let me surmise what are the things you can learn from multiple bankruptcies.

1st bankruptcy - You will learn and know who your real friends are because many of your "friends" will avoid you during your bankruptcy for fear that you will borrow money from them.  You can tell who your friends and foes are by now.

2nd bankruptcy - You will learn and understand more about yourself because you know what you can and cannot do in life by now.  In short, you know your own capabilities after your 2nd bankruptcy.

3rd bankruptcy - You will learn and understand this world better than other people after having gone through the vicissitudes of life.  You will know how this world works by now.  This was also the reason Trump got elected to be the US president because he understood how the US system was like after his numerous bankruptcies.

Trump knew who would make him lose his presidential and had fired a few hawkish people in his team.

The hawkish people are:
James Mattis
Steven Bannon
John Bolton

The remaining hawkish people in his team are feeling apprehensive now because they are fearful of their dismissals if they continue to be aggressive.

Let's see how this will affect future US political policies.

Monetary easing (MA) policy should be used as a last resort, not as a first resort.

Central bankers are abusing the monetary easing policy nowadays and using it as a first resort to solve their economic problems.

Basically, the monetary easing policy is used to increase the money supply in the banking and financial system with the ensuing outcome to depreciate the currency and cause inflation.  Therefore, it will become an invisible tax (higher inflation) on ordinary consumers who don't borrow the "new" money with lower interest rates to invest.

The monetary easing policy should be used as a last resort because it is supposed to be implemented when the economic projection is very bleak.  If the economic projection is very bleak, business investments and consumer spendings must be encouraged.  The business owners are able to borrow the new money at lower interest rates for their investments and consumers' propensity to spend will also be higher because of higher inflation expectations.

However, the MA policy is a double-edged sword because when the economic projection is very bleak, the job security is also expected to be low and this may deter consumer spendings and consumers may end up saving more for rainy days.  Consequently, the MA policy will encourage more savings than spendings instead because it is signalling to the general public that the future economy is very weak.  For example, if the bank is adopting a MA policy of negative interest of -1%, how many people will borrow from the bank to buy a property even when the bank is paying the borrower an interest?  The borrower will be worried that he will lose his job anytime and won't buy a big-ticket item because taking on additional debt in a bad economic situation is a bad idea.

Therefore, the MA policy is to be used as a last resort since the outcome is uncertain.  When the economic situation is in dire straits, then the MA should be used and hope that the best outcome prevails.

ECB cut rates and restarted QE.

ECB has cut its rate to -0.5% and restarted a quantitative easing of EU$20B per month.

This ECB move has angered Trump and his fury is flaring.

It is not surprising that the ECB cuts its rates because the EU is sliding into a recession.  Germany, the strongest and biggest economy, will enter into a recession this quarter and the rest of Europe will follow suit.  Therefore, the EU is in a dire need of a strong stimulus package to revive itself.

However, this reprise is only temporary and can be as short as 6 months.  Thereafter, a recession will creep in after March 2020.  Why?

The 2nd TLTRO will end in March 2020 and this reduces the efficacy of the oomph.  Furthermore, the ISM PMI has just contracted in the US (below 50).  The US economy will feel the impact of the PMI contraction (reported in Sept 2019) in as short as 6 months time (March 2020).  Thus, the USA and the EU are in a precarious situation after March 2020 if nothing is being done to prevent the impending recession in 2020.

Trump demanded FED to cut rates to zero!

Either Trump doesn't understand economics or he has seen the latest GDP numbers for him to demand FED to cut rates to zero.

Trump is wishfully thinking that he can refinance the national debts at zero interest rates after the US FED cuts them to zero.  He has mistaken the national debts with mortgage debts.  National debts are non-callable while mortgage debts are callable.  Therefore, the US government can only buy back the national debts from the treasuries market and re-issue new bonds at lower interest rates if the US interest rates are at zero.

However, something is amiss in Trump's thinking.  First of all, the US government doesn't have the money to buy back all the national debts because it doesn't even have enough money to pay all the federal employees resulting in a potential government shutdown.  Next, the US government has to pay much higher prices to buy back the national debts in the open market and this will wipe out all the interest savings or incur more losses.  Third, this buyback action will disrupt the treasuries market and create big chaos for the international markets.

In this regard, Trump shows his innateness and lack of proper economics understanding.

In another perspective, Trump must have seen the latest GDP numbers which were so bad that he panicked and demanded FED to cut rates to zero from 2-2.25%.

We had indicated a very bad GDP number for the US after the PMI report.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

SGX - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip SGX 7.15 9.01 Buy
01/25/19 CIMB SGX 7.5 7.9 Add PER22.1x FY20
01/25/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.5 8.2 Buy PER22x FY20
01/28/19 phillip SGX 7.57 8.36 Buy PER23.2x FY19
01/28/19 OCBC SGX 7.57 7.98 Buy PER22x F19/20
02/22/19 Citibank SGX 7.87 7.8 Hold
03/12/19 Citibank SGX 7.46 7 Sell
03/14/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x CY20
03/19/19 phillip SGX 7.31 8.17 Accumulate PER23.2x
04/05/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.42 8.1 Buy PER23x FY20
04/26/19 OCBC SGX 7.26 7.6 Hold PER21x FY20
04/26/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19 Kim Eng SGX 7.26 8.79 Buy PER23x FY19
04/29/19 phillip SGX 7.4 8.09 Accumulate PER21.4x
04/29/19 CIMB SGX 7.4 7.9 Add PER22.1x FY20
06/28/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.95 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x FY20
07/15/19 phillip SGX 7.99 8.09 Accumulate PER21.4x
08/01/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.92 8.1 Neutral PER23x FY20
08/01/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.92 8.3 Buy DDM
08/02/19 phillip SGX 7.78 8.09 Accumulate PER21x
08/05/19 CIMB SGX 7.98 8.1 Hold PER21.5x

Sembcorp Marine - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Marine 1.62 1.62 Hold Cut from $1.78, PB1.8x FY19
01/22/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.66 2.5 Buy
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.6 1.83 Hold PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.50
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.59 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
02/21/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.68 2.21 Add PB2x CY19
02/21/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.68 1.77 Hold
02/21/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.68 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Marine 1.68 0 Hold
02/26/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.72 2.48 Buy
04/09/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.7 2.48 Buy
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.7 2.4 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.69 2.21 Add PB2x
05/06/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
05/06/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.77 Hold
05/06/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.48 Buy
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
05/30/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.45 1.6 Hold PB1.45x
06/04/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.39 1.99 Buy PB1.8x FY20
07/03/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.54 1.75 Add PB1.6x CY19
07/03/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.54 1.6 Hold
07/04/19 Macquarie Sembcorp Marine 1.41 1.57 Neutral
07/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.41 2.4 Buy
07/31/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.36 1.9 Buy PB1.8x FY19
07/31/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.36 1.59 Neutral PB1.6x FY19
07/31/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.36 1.8 Buy PB1.64x FY20
07/31/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.36 1.16 Reduce PB1.1x
07/31/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.36 1.32 Hold DCF, Buy @ $1.25
08/06/19 Macquarie Sembcorp Marine 1.28 1.4 Neutral PB
09/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.16 1.22 Hold Buy @ $1.10
09/03/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.16 1.63 Buy PB1.48x FY20
09/09/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.19 1.26 Hold PB1.2x CY19

Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Industries 2.64 3.05 Outperform Sum of parts, cut from $3.26
01/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.63 3.2 Buy Sum of parts
01/23/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.69 3.49 Add
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.59 3.2 Buy
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.58 3.7 Buy
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.66 0 Hold
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.67 3.9 Buy RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
03/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.57 2.8 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35
03/18/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.52 0 Hold
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.75 3.9 Buy
05/16/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.13 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.9 Buy Sum of parts, PB1x
05/16/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.41 Add Sum of parts
05/17/19 phillip Sembcorp Industries 2.55 3.75 Buy Sum of parts
06/04/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.38 3.03 Buy Sum of parts
07/03/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.47 3.03 Buy
07/04/19 Macquarie Sembcorp Industries 2.41 2.84 Outperform
08/15/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.26 2.83 Add Sum of parts
08/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.26 2.34 Hold
08/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.26 3.2 Buy Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19
09/12/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.21 3.2 Buy Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19
09/12/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.21 0 Buy

Stock calls for 12 September 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/12/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.495 0.65 Buy
09/12/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 9.9 9.2 Neutral
09/12/19 DBS Vickers Sabana 0.455 0.48 Hold DCF
09/12/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.21 3.2 Buy Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19
09/12/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.21 0 Buy

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Cathy Pacific to cut capacity because HK travel falls.

Cathy Pacific has only itself to blame for the predicament it is facing.

Cathy Pacific management supported its employees to be anti-government protestors.  This airliner has about 3,000 potential terrorists on its payrolls and this will create a flight risk for passengers.

If Cathy Pacific doesn't eradicate this large group of potential terrorists by re-educating and re-retraining, the mainland passengers won't have the faith to take this airliner because the employees are emotionally disturbed.

Germany will enter into a recession this current quarter.

We had anticipated in January 2019 that the EU would slip into a recession much faster than Asia and we followed up with the same issue again in March 2019.

The German Institute IFW has predicted that Germany will slide into a recession this current quarter which corroborates our conclusion.

SATS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.59 5.6 Buy
01/11/19 OCBC SATS 4.94 5.23 Hold DCF
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.8 5.6 Buy
02/14/19 phillip SATS 4.98 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19 OCBC SATS 4.98 5.23 Hold
02/14/19 CIMB SATS 4.98 5.46 Add PER20.3x
02/14/19 Lim & Tan SATS 4.98 0 Hold
02/14/19 DBS Vickers SATS 4.98 5.59 Buy DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19 Kim Eng SATS 4.98 5.8 Buy
02/15/19 Citi Research SATS 5.08 6 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.06 5.6 Buy
04/15/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.31 5.8 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.27 5.6 Buy
05/17/19 OCBC SATS 5.22 5.35 Hold
05/21/19 phillip SATS 5.08 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.08 5.05 Hold Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.08 5.44 Buy DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.07 5.05 Hold Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.04 5.44 Buy
06/12/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.04 6.1 Buy DCF
06/17/19 CIMB SATS 5.14 5.4 Add PER21.9x CY20
07/05/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.36 6.1 Buy DCF
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.37 5.05 Sell
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.32 4.8 Sell
07/19/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.32 5 Hold DCF
07/19/19 CIMB SATS 5.32 5.4 Hold PER21.9x CY20
07/22/19 OCBC SATS 5 5.28 Hold FCFF
07/22/19 phillip SATS 5 5.47 Accumulate
07/22/19 Lim & Tan SATS 5 0 Hold