Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	DIR	Sembcorp Industries	2.64	3.05	Outperform	Sum of parts, cut from $3.26
01/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.63	3.2	Buy	Sum of parts
01/23/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.69	3.49	Add
02/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.59	3.2	Buy
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.58	3.7	Buy
02/21/19	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.66	0	Hold
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.67	3.9	Buy	RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
03/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.57	2.8	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35
03/18/19	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.52	0	Hold
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.75	3.9	Buy
05/16/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.13	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.9	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1x
05/16/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.41	Add	Sum of parts
05/17/19	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	2.55	3.75	Buy	Sum of parts
06/04/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.38	3.03	Buy	Sum of parts

SATS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation	Remark
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.59	5.6	Buy
01/11/19	OCBC	SATS	4.94	5.23	Hold	DCF
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.8	5.6	Buy
02/14/19	phillip	SATS	4.98	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19	OCBC	SATS	4.98	5.23	Hold
02/14/19	CIMB	SATS	4.98	5.46	Add	PER20.3x
02/14/19	Lim & Tan	SATS	4.98	0	Hold
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	4.98	5.59	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19	Kim Eng	SATS	4.98	5.8	Buy
02/15/19	Citi Research	SATS	5.08	6	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.06	5.6	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.31	5.8	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.27	5.6	Buy
05/17/19	OCBC	SATS	5.22	5.35	Hold
05/21/19	phillip	SATS	5.08	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.08	5.05	Hold	Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.08	5.44	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.07	5.05	Hold	Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.04	5.44	Buy
06/12/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.04	6.1	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20

Sasseur - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation	Remark
02/20/19	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.74	0.9	Buy	DDM
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.74	0.97	Buy	DCF
04/03/19	CIMB	Sasseur	0.78	0.92	Add

Stock calls for 19 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/19/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.98	2.88	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Buy
06/19/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.79	0.75	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.11	1.93	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.57	2.21	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.66	Accumulate
06/19/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.88	0.94	Accumulate
06/19/19	OCBC	DBS	24.8	29.18	Buy	Buy @ $27.50 or lower
06/19/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.775	0.87	Buy
06/19/19	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.56	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.61	2.36	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.64	1.59	Accumulate
06/19/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.17	2.03	Neutral
06/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.17	9.5	Hold	Buy @ $8.60

President Trump is the man behind wall street.

Just a tweet from President Trump that he and President Xi would have an extended talk at G20 sent the stock markets rallying.

If the trade talk falls out between the US & China at G20, the stock markets will fall hard and fast too.  How do we determine the progress?

If Trump is going to insist on his previous terms, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to discuss the Hong Kong extradition bill and protest with Xi, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to threaten Xi with additional tariffs, the trade talk will fall out too.

We just need to observe the discussing issues between Xi and Trump to predict the outcome of the trade talk.

Sanli Env - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/06/19	Tayrona	Sanli Env	0.18	0.234	Overweight

Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold
02/25/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.415	0.41	Hold
04/17/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.4	0.41	Hold
05/09/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.41	Hold
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold	RNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	CIMB	Riverstone	1.1	1.22	Add	PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	1.1	1.19	Hold	PER16x FY19
05/14/19	CIMB	Riverstone	0.995	1.22	Add	PER16.5x FY20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.975	1.03	Hold	PER16.8x FY19/20

Stock calls for 18 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy
06/18/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.42	4.1	Outperform	RNAV (25% discount)
06/18/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.58	2.65	Neutral	DCF & FCF
06/18/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.565	0.6	Add	DDM
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.635	0.73	Buy	DCF

The US is trying to nullify China patents now to win the trade war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senator-rubio-targets-huawei-over-215937943.html

This will definitely open up a new battle frontier and it is bad for businesses.

If the US nullify China patents, China will retaliate by nullifying the US patents too.  When these 2 countries don't recognize each other's patents, the whole world will be in chaos because nobody is protected with patents anymore.

It is best not to open the pandora's box because the repercussion is too severe.

Raffles Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.11	1.16	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.3	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.02	Neutral	DCF
02/26/19	OCBC	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.25	Buy
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19
02/26/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.09	Neutral	DCF
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.07	1.02	Neutral
05/02/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.09	Neutral	DCF
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/19	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.13	Hold	DCF
06/12/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.1	Hold

Q & M - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Q & M	0.495	0.513	Neutral

Propnex - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.565	0.66	Buy
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.595	0.66	Buy
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY19
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/07/19	CIMB	Propnex	0.49	0.64	Add

Stock calls for 17 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.81	29.46	Buy
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.75	0.9	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.87	1	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20
06/17/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.755	0.8	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.99	28.97	Buy

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 4

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-trouble-micron-china-unveils-160000815.html

We had stated previously that the semiconductor was facing a permanent slowdown outside China in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

This prediction is materializing very fast because China feels the urgency to ramp up its semiconductor developments now.  Many foreign semiconductor manufacturers will lose their China market shares in the future.

Singapore Nodx fell 15.9% in May 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exports-fall-most-three-031737792.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html

Baltic dry index - 1062

Today, Thursday, June 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 18 points, reaching 1062 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 969

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Perennial Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.645	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.65	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.64	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)

Penguin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	2.8	3.1	Buy
03/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.88	3.25	Buy	DDM
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.92	3.25	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy

Stock calls for 14 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/14/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.5	1.38	Hold
06/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
06/14/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.35	3.5	Add	Sum of parts
06/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.885	1.7	Buy

The true picture of US economy.

We will use the economic process to analyze the US GDP situation.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

CPI: Stagnant ( This showed that there is no overwhelming demand to support the US economy and the inventory rundown must continue to allow CPI to increase.  Thus, there is a supply issue in the US which means that weak economic growth is expected in the future.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/consumer-price-index-may-2019.html

As the US uses interest rates to manage inflation, we will use the 3m-10y yield spread to gauge the situation.  This is not applicable to Singapore because we use the currency exchange rate to manage our inflation.

3-month Libor vs US 10-year yield spread:

The 10-year yield is below the 3-month Libor now which depicts a death cross occurrence (negative signal for technical analysis).  Fundamentally speaking, this means there is a shortage of money supply which will curb business investments with the ensuing outcome of slower economic growth.

The US PMI has declined in May 2019.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html

The decline in May inventories under the PMI corroborated the aforesaid CPI situation whereby the continual inventories rundown must persist for CPI to rise since there is no overwhelming demand to deplete the inventories.  Without the rundown, the CPI cannot rise to kickstart the change in the economic process.

With the weaknesses in CPI, 3m-10y yield spread and PMI, the next US GDP figure will be weak!

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Pacific Century	0.385	0	Buy

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.183	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 13 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.05	2.16	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	24.7	30.5	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.29	Buy
06/13/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.72	1.01	Add
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.675	0.95	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.8	14.62	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.32	3.58	Buy	DCF
06/13/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.32	3.48	Hold	Sum of parts
06/13/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	4.09	4.38	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.09	4.7	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.41	3.9	Buy

Huawei is evoking its patent rights now. Yeah!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-asks-verizon-pay-over-160423853.html

We've stated before that many companies would be infringing Huawei's patents if they want to build 5G technology.  Huawei is evoking its patent rights now in the face of the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/huawei-won-fight-in-europe-against-us.html

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.33	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.48	Buy	DDM & DCF

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 12 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.41	4	Buy
06/12/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.35	Sell
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.65	Buy
06/12/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaRetail China	1.53	0	Hold
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.55	2.77	Buy
06/12/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.645	0.67	Hold
06/12/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.625	0.82	Buy	DCF
06/12/19	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.84	2.09	Add	Ringgit $6.37 target price
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.835	0.97	Buy
06/12/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.1	Hold
06/12/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.04	6.1	Buy	DCF