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Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Industries 2.64 3.05 Outperform Sum of parts, cut from $3.26
01/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.63 3.2 Buy Sum of parts
01/23/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.69 3.49 Add
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.59 3.2 Buy
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.58 3.7 Buy
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.66 0 Hold
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.67 3.9 Buy RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
03/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.57 2.8 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35
03/18/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.52 0 Hold
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.75 3.9 Buy
05/16/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.13 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.9 Buy Sum of parts, PB1x
05/16/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.41 Add Sum of parts
05/17/19 phillip Sembcorp Industries 2.55 3.75 Buy Sum of parts
06/04/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.38 3.03 Buy Sum of parts

SATS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation Remark
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.59 5.6 Buy
01/11/19 OCBC SATS 4.94 5.23 Hold DCF
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.8 5.6 Buy
02/14/19 phillip SATS 4.98 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19 OCBC SATS 4.98 5.23 Hold
02/14/19 CIMB SATS 4.98 5.46 Add PER20.3x
02/14/19 Lim & Tan SATS 4.98 0 Hold
02/14/19 DBS Vickers SATS 4.98 5.59 Buy DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19 Kim Eng SATS 4.98 5.8 Buy
02/15/19 Citi Research SATS 5.08 6 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.06 5.6 Buy
04/15/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.31 5.8 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.27 5.6 Buy
05/17/19 OCBC SATS 5.22 5.35 Hold
05/21/19 phillip SATS 5.08 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.08 5.05 Hold Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.08 5.44 Buy DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.07 5.05 Hold Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.04 5.44 Buy
06/12/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.04 6.1 Buy DCF
06/17/19 CIMB SATS 5.14 5.4 Add PER21.9x CY20

Sasseur - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation Remark
02/20/19 Kim Eng Sasseur 0.74 0.9 Buy DDM
02/20/19 DBS Vickers Sasseur 0.74 0.97 Buy DCF
04/03/19 CIMB Sasseur 0.78 0.92 Add

Stock calls for 19 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/19/19 Phillip A-Reit 2.98 2.88 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Buy
06/19/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.79 0.75 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.11 1.93 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.57 2.21 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Accumulate
06/19/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.88 0.94 Accumulate
06/19/19 OCBC DBS 24.8 29.18 Buy Buy @ $27.50 or lower
06/19/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.775 0.87 Buy
06/19/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.56 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.61 2.36 Neutral
06/19/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.64 1.59 Accumulate
06/19/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.17 2.03 Neutral
06/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.17 9.5 Hold Buy @ $8.60

President Trump is the man behind wall street.

Just a tweet from President Trump that he and President Xi would have an extended talk at G20 sent the stock markets rallying.

If the trade talk falls out between the US & China at G20, the stock markets will fall hard and fast too.  How do we determine the progress?

If Trump is going to insist on his previous terms, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to discuss the Hong Kong extradition bill and protest with Xi, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to threaten Xi with additional tariffs, the trade talk will fall out too.

We just need to observe the discussing issues between Xi and Trump to predict the outcome of the trade talk.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Sanli Env - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/06/19 Tayrona Sanli Env 0.18 0.234 Overweight

Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.39 Hold
02/25/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.415 0.41 Hold
04/17/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.4 0.41 Hold
05/09/19 OCBC Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.41 Hold
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Roxy-Pacific 0.405 0.39 Hold RNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 CIMB Riverstone 1.1 1.22 Add PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 1.1 1.19 Hold PER16x FY19
05/14/19 CIMB Riverstone 0.995 1.22 Add PER16.5x FY20
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 0.975 1.03 Hold PER16.8x FY19/20

Stock calls for 18 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.87 1.15 Buy
06/18/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.42 4.1 Outperform RNAV (25% discount)
06/18/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.58 2.65 Neutral DCF & FCF
06/18/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.565 0.6 Add DDM
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.635 0.73 Buy DCF

The US is trying to nullify China patents now to win the trade war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senator-rubio-targets-huawei-over-215937943.html

This will definitely open up a new battle frontier and it is bad for businesses.

If the US nullify China patents, China will retaliate by nullifying the US patents too.  When these 2 countries don't recognize each other's patents, the whole world will be in chaos because nobody is protected with patents anymore.

It is best not to open the pandora's box because the repercussion is too severe.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Raffles Medical - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.11 1.16 Accumulate
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Raffles Medical 1.12 1.3 Buy DCF
02/26/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.12 1.02 Neutral DCF
02/26/19 OCBC Raffles Medical 1.12 1.25 Buy
02/26/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.12 1.12 Hold Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19
02/26/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.12 1.09 Neutral DCF
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.07 1.02 Neutral
05/02/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.08 1.09 Neutral DCF
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.08 1.12 Hold Sum of parts
05/14/19 Kim Eng Raffles Medical 1.02 1.13 Hold DCF
06/12/19 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.02 1.1 Hold

Q & M - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip Q & M 0.495 0.513 Neutral

Propnex - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.565 0.66 Buy
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.595 0.66 Buy
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.505 0.6 Buy DCF, PER10x FY19
06/03/19 phillip Propnex 0.5 0.63 Buy DCF
06/07/19 CIMB Propnex 0.49 0.64 Add

Stock calls for 17 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/17/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.77 0.83 Buy DDM
06/17/19 Kim Eng DBS 24.81 29.46 Buy
06/17/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.75 0.9 Buy DCF
06/17/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.87 1 Buy DDM
06/17/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.33 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
06/17/19 Kim Eng OCBC 10.78 11.07 Hold
06/17/19 CIMB SATS 5.14 5.4 Add PER21.9x CY20
06/17/19 OCBC Starhill 0.755 0.8 Buy
06/17/19 Kim Eng UOB 24.99 28.97 Buy

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 4

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-trouble-micron-china-unveils-160000815.html


We had stated previously that the semiconductor was facing a permanent slowdown outside China in 2018.


This prediction is materializing very fast because China feels the urgency to ramp up its semiconductor developments now.  Many foreign semiconductor manufacturers will lose their China market shares in the future.

Singapore Nodx fell 15.9% in May 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exports-fall-most-three-031737792.html

Year on year changes (YOY):
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Baltic dry index - 1062

Today, Thursday, June 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 18 points, reaching 1062 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
========================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 969


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Perennial Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.645 0.83 Buy RNAV (55% discount)
04/24/19 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.65 0.83 Buy RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19 DBS Vickers Perennial Reit 0.64 0.83 Buy RNAV (55% discount)

Penguin - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/26/19 phillip Penguin 0.45 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19 phillip Penguin 0.44 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19 CIMB Penguin 0.445 0.72 Add PB1x FY19

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 DBS Vickers Parkway Life 2.8 3.1 Buy
03/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.88 3.25 Buy DDM
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.92 3.25 Buy DDM
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.89 3.25 Buy

Stock calls for 14 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/14/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.5 1.38 Hold
06/14/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.09 0.95 Sell DCF
06/14/19 CIMB Singtel 3.35 3.5 Add Sum of parts
06/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.885 1.7 Buy

The true picture of US economy.

We will use the economic process to analyze the US GDP situation.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:
CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

CPI: Stagnant ( This showed that there is no overwhelming demand to support the US economy and the inventory rundown must continue to allow CPI to increase.  Thus, there is a supply issue in the US which means that weak economic growth is expected in the future.)

As the US uses interest rates to manage inflation, we will use the 3m-10y yield spread to gauge the situation.  This is not applicable to Singapore because we use the currency exchange rate to manage our inflation.
3-month Libor vs US 10-year yield spread:
The 10-year yield is below the 3-month Libor now which depicts a death cross occurrence (negative signal for technical analysis).  Fundamentally speaking, this means there is a shortage of money supply which will curb business investments with the ensuing outcome of slower economic growth.

The US PMI has declined in May 2019.

The decline in May inventories under the PMI corroborated the aforesaid CPI situation whereby the continual inventories rundown must persist for CPI to rise since there is no overwhelming demand to deplete the inventories.  Without the rundown, the CPI cannot rise to kickstart the change in the economic process.

With the weaknesses in CPI, 3m-10y yield spread and PMI, the next US GDP figure will be weak!

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 Lim & Tan Pacific Century 0.385 0 Buy

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.183 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19 DBS Vickers PACC Offshore 0.173 0.2 Hold PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy
06/13/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy RNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 13 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.05 2.16 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 24.7 30.5 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.29 Buy
06/13/19 CIMB HRnetGroup 0.72 1.01 Add
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.675 0.95 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 10.8 14.62 Buy
06/13/19 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.31 0.41 Buy RNAV (45% discount)
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.32 3.58 Buy DCF
06/13/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.32 3.48 Hold Sum of parts
06/13/19 OCBC ST Engineering 4.09 4.38 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 4.09 4.7 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.41 3.9 Buy

Huawei is evoking its patent rights now. Yeah!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-asks-verizon-pay-over-160423853.html

We've stated before that many companies would be infringing Huawei's patents if they want to build 5G technology.  Huawei is evoking its patent rights now in the face of the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/huawei-won-fight-in-europe-against-us.html

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Oxley - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/23/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.33 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Overseas Edu 0.3 0.46 Buy EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19 Lim & Tan Overseas Edu 0.3 0.48 Buy DDM & DCF

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 Soochow SSD OUE Lippo HC 0.066 0.088 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 12 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/12/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.41 4 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.35 Sell
06/12/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.65 Buy
06/12/19 Lim & Tan CapitaRetail China 1.53 0 Hold
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.55 2.77 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.645 0.67 Hold
06/12/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.625 0.82 Buy DCF
06/12/19 CIMB IHH Healthcare 1.84 2.09 Add Ringgit $6.37 target price
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.835 0.97 Buy
06/12/19 CIMB Raffles Medical 1.02 1.1 Hold
06/12/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.04 6.1 Buy DCF