The US GDP had collapsed! - Part 3

The US GDP growth was weaker than previous forecast.

Let's break down the GDP numbers to see what had happened.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q4 GDP (1st estimate) = (-0.9) + 0.66 + 1.58 + 0.08 = 1.42 (1.4)

Q4 GDP (2nd estimate) = (-1.03) + 0.57 + 1.33 + (-0.22) = 0.65 (0.7)

Q4 GDP (Final) = (-0.99) + 0.4 + 1.3 + (-0.22) = 0.49 (0.5)

We can see from the above GDP breakdown that the GDP components are doing badly.  The US government (G) continued to decrease its spending (-0.99), the investment (I) and consumption (C) also continued to decline because of poor economic conditions and the net exports (NE) remained stagnant.

US PCE: 2.9%

The US PCE is projected to spike next quarter because of the Iran war.  Therefore, this PCE report has become irrelevant.

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/16/25	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.685	0.85	Buy
07/28/25	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	0.78	0.765	Hold
07/30/25	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.78	0.85	Buy	DCF
08/01/25	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.76	0.75	Hold	DCF
09/30/25	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	0.785	0.705	Hold
10/31/25	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.79	0.75	Hold	DCF
02/05/26	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.785	0.75	Hold	DCF
02/06/26	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	0.78	0.655	Sell
03/25/26	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	0.635	0.655	Hold

Capitaland Investment - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/03/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	2.56	3.95	Buy	Sum of parts
03/17/25	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	2.62	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
04/03/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.72	3.5	Accumulate on weakness
04/11/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.5	3.48	Accumulate on weakness
04/17/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	2.54	3.85	Buy
05/02/25	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	2.75	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
05/02/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	2.75	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
05/02/25	CIMB	Capitaland Investment	2.75	4.3	Add	RNAV
05/05/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	2.53	3.42	Buy	Sum of parts
05/14/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.54	3.34	Accumulate
06/04/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.51	3.35	Accumulate
06/09/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.56	3.34	Accumulate
07/02/25	CIMB	Capitaland Investment	2.65	4.3	Add	RNAV
07/03/25	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	2.65	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.75	3.42	Buy
08/13/25	Citi Research	Capitaland Investment	2.75	3.4	Buy
08/15/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	2.72	3.49	Buy	Sum of parts
08/15/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	2.72	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
08/15/25	CIMB	Capitaland Investment	2.72	4.3	Add	RNAV
08/15/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.72	3.38	Buy
08/18/25	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	2.7	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
09/25/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.68	3.4	Buy
10/17/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.65	3.39	Buy
11/04/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	2.66	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
11/07/25	CIMB	Capitaland Investment	2.65	4.3	Add	RNAV
11/07/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.65	3.41	Buy
11/10/25	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	2.68	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
11/14/25	Kim Eng	Capitaland Investment	2.69	3.3	Buy	Sum of parts
11/25/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.63	3.39	Buy
12/08/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.61	3.39	Buy
12/23/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.67	3.5	Accumulate
01/05/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	2.74	3.49	Buy	Sum of parts
01/07/26	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.76	3.39	Accumulate
01/08/26	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	2.78	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
02/10/26	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	3.16	3.3	Hold
02/11/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	3.17	3.49	Buy	Sum of parts
02/11/26	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	3.17	3.65	Buy	Sum of parts
02/12/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	3.06	4.05	Buy	Sum of parts
02/12/26	CIMB	Capitaland Investment	3.06	4.19	Add	RNAV
02/12/26	CIMB	Capitaland Investment	3.06	3.4	Buy	RNAV (20% disc)
02/16/26	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	3.12	3.69	Buy	Sum of parts
03/10/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	2.82	4.05	Buy	Sum of parts

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	1.98	2.37	Buy	DDM
03/18/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.12	2.3	Buy
04/01/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.1	2.37	Buy	DDM
04/24/25	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.14	2.3	Buy	DDM
04/25/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.14	2.3	Buy
04/28/25	CIMB	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.14	2.45	Add	DDM
05/21/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.05	2.37	Buy	DDM
06/26/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.15	2.42	Buy	DDM
06/27/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.16	2.72	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.2	2.72	Buy	DDM
08/06/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.24	2.79	Buy	DDM
08/06/25	CIMB	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.24	2.45	Add	DDM
08/06/25	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.24	2.44	Buy	DDM
08/26/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.26	2.5	Buy
09/01/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.28	2.79	Buy	DDM
10/13/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.34	2.79	Buy	DDM
10/28/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.41	2.5	Buy
10/29/25	CIMB	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.4	2.71	Add	DDM
10/30/25	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.41	2.44	Buy	DDM
11/25/25	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.36	2.5	Buy
11/26/25	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.37	2.69	Buy	DDM
12/17/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.33	0	Accumulate
12/22/25	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.34	2.69	Buy	DDM
01/07/26	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.39	2.54	Accumulate
01/15/26	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.42	2.5	Buy
01/19/26	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.42	2.56	Accumulate
02/06/26	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.38	2.5	Buy
02/06/26	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.38	2.84	Accumulate
02/09/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.45	2.95	Buy	DDM
02/09/26	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.45	2.8	Buy
02/09/26	Kim Eng	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.45	2.6	Buy
02/09/26	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.45	2.69	Buy	DDM
02/13/26	DMG & Partners	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.47	2.73	Buy	DDM
02/23/26	JPM	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.42	2.75	Buy	Up from $2.60
03/05/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.4	2.95	Buy	DDM
04/01/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.35	2.95	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 9 April 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/09/26	Lim & Tan	Info-Tech System	1.04	1.35	Accumulate

The Iran war situation report. - Part 44

The shameless US had flip-flopped again.

What's gonna happen next?

Iran will continue to close the strait of hormuz and military actions will escalate.

The Iran war situation report. - Part 43

It is official now. No ceasefire!

This outcome is exactly what we've been projecting.

Many investors got burnt yesterday by buying into this pseudo ceasefire because of Trump's manipulation.

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/17/25	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.85	1.3	Buy	DCF
05/16/25	OCBC	Bumitama	0.765	0.975	Buy
05/16/25	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.765	0.83	Buy	PER8x FY25
05/16/25	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.765	0.9	Buy	PER10x FY25
07/09/25	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.76	0.8	Neutral	PER9x FY26
08/12/25	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.84	1.3	Buy	DCF
08/12/25	OCBC	Bumitama	0.84	1.05	Buy
08/13/25	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.92	0.94	Buy
08/27/25	OCBC	Bumitama	1.12	1.2	Buy
08/28/25	OCBC	Bumitama	1.09	1.2	Hold
08/28/25	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	1.09	0.88	Neutral
08/28/25	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	1.09	0.9	Hold
09/22/25	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	1.13	1.1	Neutral
10/17/25	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	1.28	1.2	Hold	PER9.5x FY26
10/23/25	OCBC	Bumitama	1.33	1.3	Hold
10/23/25	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	1.33	1.9	Buy	DCF
11/14/25	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	1.48	1.4	Hold	PER11x FY26
11/14/25	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	1.48	1.9	Buy	PER16.4x FY26
01/14/26	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	1.3	1.9	Buy	PER16.4x FY26
02/27/26	OCBC	Bumitama	1.33	1.5	Buy
03/02/26	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	1.32	1.45	Buy	PER11x FY27
03/19/26	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	1.66	1.9	Buy	PER16.4x FY26
04/07/26	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	1.9	2.3	Buy	PER20.4x FY26