Baltic dry index - 2730

Related stock: Seatrium, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 547

 Related stock: Seatrium & Cosco.

The latest ISM PMI report showed spiking inflation! - Part 2

 

Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 0.6 - (-2) = 2.6

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = (-1) - (-2.3) = -1.3

The new order increased (+0.6) because the US consumers were frontloading their purchases (local new orders: +2.6) due to the spiking US inflation prices (+6.3).

However, the producers regarded this frontloading phenomenon as unsustainable and reduced their production (-1.7) and employment (-2.3) instead because new export orders were declining (-2).

The frontloading purchases also caused the customers' inventories and backlog of orders to decline respectively (-1 & -3).

The high prices (84.6, +6.3) were caused by the Iran war and would continue to devastate the US economic growth and PMI if the Iran war continues for a few more months.

US Q1 2026 GDP growth: 2%

US Q1 2026 GDP growth: 2%

Let's break down the GDP to see what had changed from the previous quarter.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q4 GDP (2025) = (-0.99) + 0.4 + 1.3 + (-0.22) = 0.49 (0.5)

Q1 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.73 + 1.48 + 1.08 + (-1.3) = 1.99 (2)

The US government spending (G) had been increased to boost the US GDP growth.  However, the spiking inflation was causing consumption (C) to fall from 1.3 to 1.08 and this decline in C had boosted the investment (I) because of increasing stockpiles (unsold inventories).  The Iran war had caused the international trades to decline and it had also affected the US exports (Net Export was negative).

Therefore, this is not an impressive GDP report because we can see weaknesses ahead.

US core PCE had spiked in Q1 2026.

 
The current Iran war had caused the Q1 core PCE to spike to 4.3%.  If this trend continues, the US Fed won't be able to ease its rates.

Hafary - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/07/26	Tickrs Financial	Hafary	0.465	0.58	Buy

GuocoLand - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/18/25	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	1.76	2	Buy	RNAV (50% disc)
09/01/25	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	1.86	2.5	Buy	RNAV (45% disc)
10/08/25	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	2.06	2.5	Buy	RNAV (45% disc)
01/30/26	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	2.68	3.3	Buy	RNAV (35% disc)
04/06/26	uSMART	GuocoLand	2.37	3.17	Buy

Great Eastern - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/06/25	EY	Great Eastern	25.8	25.6	Accept Offer	Offer @ $30.15
06/10/25	DMG & Partners	Great Eastern	25.8	30.15	Accept Offer	Offer @ $30.15

Stock calls for 30 April 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/30/26	Phillip	Capitaland Investment	2.8	3.69	Buy	Sum of parts
04/30/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Investment	2.8	3.93	Buy	Sum of parts
04/30/26	CIMB	Centurion	1.63	1.89	Add	RNAV
04/30/26	CIMB	DBS	56.56	60	Hold	GGM
04/30/26	Lim & Tan	DBS	56.56	60	Accumulate
04/30/26	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	1.97	2.22	Add	DDM
04/30/26	DBS Vickers	SATS	3.31	4.2	Buy	DCF & PER19x
04/30/26	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	2.99	2.8	Hold	PER26x FY26
04/30/26	Lim & Tan	Sheng Siong	2.99	3	Accumulate on weakness
04/30/26	DBS Vickers	SIA	6.31	6.5	Hold	EV/Ebitda4.7x FY27
04/30/26	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	3.11	3.8	Buy	PER21x FY27
04/30/26	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.83	3.6	Hold	PER12.2x FY26

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/11/25	DBS Vickers	Grand Venture	0.61	1.12	Buy	PER21x FY26
06/02/25	DBS Vickers	Grand Venture	0.84	1.12	Buy	PER21x FY26
06/05/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Venture	0.935	0	Hold
07/11/25	DBS Vickers	Grand Venture	0.955	1.12	Buy	PER21x FY26
07/11/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Venture	0.955	0.94	Hold	Offer $0.94

Grand Banks Yacht - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Banks Yacht	0.53	0	Buy
05/19/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Banks Yacht	0.535	0.51	Hold
06/10/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Banks Yacht	0.485	0	Hold
10/27/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Banks Yacht	0.745	1.12	Buy	PER10.6x FY26
11/21/25	Lim & Tan	Grand Banks Yacht	0.785	0	Buy
01/28/26	Lim & Tan	Grand Banks Yacht	0.82	1.33	Buy

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/09/25	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.25	0.25	Neutral	Sum of parts, cut from $0.26 target price
09/18/25	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.3	0.3	Hold
04/23/26	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.305	0.3	Neutral

Stock calls for 29 April 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	AEM	7.15	8.9	Buy	PER42x FY27
04/29/26	UOB Kay Hian	Aztech	0.875	1.32	Buy	PER20x FY27
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	Aztech	0.875	0.93	Hold	PER15x FY27
04/29/26	CIMB	Aztech	0.875	1.14	Add	PER
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	Capitaland Investment	2.81	3.4	Buy	Sum of parts
04/29/26	CIMB	ESR-Reit	2.47	3.43	Add	DDM
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	Frencken	2.72	3.22	Buy	PER30x FY26
04/29/26	Lim & Tan	Hongkong Land	7.89	10.07	Accumulate
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	Ireit	0.235	0.3	Hold	DCF
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.35	1.65	Buy	Sum of parts
04/29/26	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.35	1.52	Add	DDM
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.06	2.05	Hold	DCF
04/29/26	Lim & Tan	Mapletree Industrial	2.06	2.18	Hold
04/29/26	Phillip	Stoneweg Reit	1.57	1.89	Buy	DDM
04/29/26	DBS Vickers	UMS	2.18	2.92	Buy	PER35x FY27/28

What will the US Fed do for its April FOMC?

The Fedwatch tool shows a 100% certainty that the US Fed will put on hold any rate change for the April FOMC.

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/17/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.31	0.68	Buy
03/26/25	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.3	0.64	outperform	DCF
03/28/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.325	0.64	Accumulate
04/01/25	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.33	0.47	Buy	DCF
04/21/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.335	0.59	Buy
04/25/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.35	0.6	Buy	DCF
05/19/25	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.36	0.47	Buy	DCF
05/19/25	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.36	0.71	outperform	DCF
05/22/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.35	0.59	Buy
06/10/25	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.37	0.69	outperform	DCF
09/04/25	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.39	0.47	Buy	DCF
09/09/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.425	0.58	Buy
09/26/25	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.45	0.59	Buy	DCF
09/30/25	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.475	0.59	Buy
11/26/25	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.43	0.59	Buy	DCF
12/23/25	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.43	0.76	outperform	DCF
03/02/26	Lim & Tan	Geo Energy	0.415	0.425	Hold
03/16/26	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.54	0.75	Buy	DCF
03/19/26	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.525	1.02	outperform	DCF

Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/24/25	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.735	0.95	Buy	Sum of parts
04/25/25	CIMB	Genting	0.75	1.05	Add	EV/Ebitda8x
04/25/25	Citi Research	Genting	0.75	1.14	Buy	Sum of parts
05/15/25	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.735	0.9	Buy	EV/Ebitda8x FY25
05/16/25	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.715	0.9	Buy	DCF & EV/Ebitda6.5x FY25
07/10/25	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.74	0.8	Hold	DCF & EV/Ebitda5.3x FY26
07/10/25	CIMB	Genting	0.74	1.05	Add	EV/Ebitda8x
08/04/25	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.735	0.8	Hold	DCF & EV/Ebitda5.3x FY26
08/08/25	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.755	0.89	Hold	EV/Ebitda8x FY26
10/14/25	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.715	0.8	Hold	DCF & EV/Ebitda5.3x FY26
11/07/25	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.73	0.89	Buy	EV/Ebitda8x FY26
11/07/25	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.73	0.8	Hold	DCF & EV/Ebitda5.3x FY26
11/07/25	CIMB	Genting	0.73	0.785	Add
11/11/25	Kim Eng	Genting	0.77	1	Buy
01/05/26	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.725	0.89	Buy	EV/Ebitda8x FY26
01/29/26	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.73	0.8	Hold	DCF & EV/Ebitda5.3x FY26
01/29/26	CIMB	Genting	0.73	0.785	Add	EV/Ebitda
02/19/26	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.77	0.9	Buy	EV/Ebitda7.3x FY26
02/25/26	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.79	0.84	Hold	EV/Ebitda8x FY26
02/25/26	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.79	0.85	Buy	EV/Ebitda7.3x FY26
02/25/26	CIMB	Genting	0.79	0.76	Hold	EV/Ebitda
03/24/26	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.67	0.85	Accumulate
04/23/26	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.7	0.85	Buy	EV/Ebitda7.3x FY26