Red alert for bitcoin (BTC)! - Part 2

BTC will be experiencing a double whammy! Why?

In our earlier post, we've stated that some crypto treasuries companies are deep under water.  Simultaneously, some crypto mining companies are also deep under water because the mining cost is way above the BTC price (see below).

The crypto miners are losing monies for processing BTC transactions and mining BTC. Either they have to shut down or convert their crypto business into AI data centre in the future.  When they do that, they will liquidate their BTC holdings.  Therefore, there is a clear and present danger for BTC to fall further when the crypto treasuries companies and crypto miners start to liquidate their BTC holdings to sustain their businesses operations.

Isoteam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/25	Kim Eng	Isoteam	0.065	0.09	Buy
02/14/25	DMG & Partners	Isoteam	0.06	0.07	Buy	PER6x FY25
03/21/25	DMG & Partners	Isoteam	0.077	0.08	Buy
03/25/25	Kim Eng	Isoteam	0.078	0.104	Buy
04/16/25	CIMB	Isoteam	0.069	0.096	Add
05/08/25	Amfrasers	Isoteam	0.077	0.1	outperform	DCF
05/23/25	Kim Eng	Isoteam	0.075	0.104	Buy
07/03/25	CIMB	Isoteam	0.077	0.1	Add
07/03/25	SAC Capital	Isoteam	0.077	0.091	Buy
07/07/25	Kim Eng	Isoteam	0.074	0.104	Buy
08/29/25	CIMB	Isoteam	0.08	0.102	Add	PER
08/29/25	Kim Eng	Isoteam	0.08	0.1	Buy
09/04/25	SAC Capital	Isoteam	0.083	0.096	Buy
09/12/25	Lim & Tan	Isoteam	0.087	0.1	Accumulate
09/17/25	CIMB	Isoteam	0.088	0.11	Add
09/24/25	Lim & Tan	Isoteam	0.084	0.11	Accumulate
09/26/25	DMG & Partners	Isoteam	0.084	0.078	Neutral
10/17/25	Amfrasers	Isoteam	0.081	0.099	outperform	DCF
11/28/25	Lim & Tan	Isoteam	0.077	0.096	Accumulate
12/01/25	DMG & Partners	Isoteam	0.078	0.078	Neutral
01/28/26	Kim Eng	Isoteam	0.087	0.1	Buy	PER

ISDN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/25	CIMB	ISDN	0.305	0.35	Add
03/11/25	CIMB	ISDN	0.35	0.4	Add	PER
04/22/25	CIMB	ISDN	0.315	0.28	Hold
07/31/25	CIMB	ISDN	0.365	0.44	Add
08/25/25	CIMB	ISDN	0.385	0.44	Add

Ireit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/25	DMG & Partners	Ireit	0.285	0.34	Buy	DDM
02/18/25	DBS Vickers	Ireit	0.265	0.25	Hold	DDM
04/07/25	DMG & Partners	Ireit	0.245	0.34	Buy	DDM
08/11/25	DBS Vickers	Ireit	0.295	0.3	Hold	DCF
09/04/25	DMG & Partners	Ireit	0.285	0.35	Buy	DDM
11/25/25	DMG & Partners	Ireit	0.285	0.35	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 5 February 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/05/26	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.49	1.6	Buy	DCF
02/05/26	Lim & Tan	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.49	1.52	Accumulate
02/05/26	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.785	0.75	Hold	DCF
02/05/26	DBS Vickers	Digicore Reit	0.53	0.7	Buy	DCF
02/05/26	CIMB	ESR-Reit	2.75	3.43	Add	DDM
02/05/26	Kim Eng	ESR-Reit	2.75	3	Buy	DDM
02/05/26	CIMB	Ever Gloy Uinited Holdings	0.685	0.87	Add	PER
02/05/26	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	10.95	11.97	Accumulate
02/05/26	OCBC	Keppel Infrastructure	0.53	0.545	Buy
02/05/26	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.975	1.05	Buy
02/05/26	OCBC	Keppel Reit	0.975	1.06	Buy
02/05/26	DBS Vickers	SGX	17.75	19.2	Buy	PER28x FY27
02/05/26	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	4.91	5.2	Buy	Sum of parts
02/05/26	Phillip	Singtel	4.91	5.35	Accumulate

Red alert for bitcoin (BTC)!

BTC has just entered a dangerous zone and the death spiralling may start soon.  Why?

Many crypto treasury companies with the business model of buying BTC as a store of value are deep under water now.  When they can't raise more monies through issuing shares to purchase BTC to prop up BTC prices, BTC prices will fall further because the crypto market has lost such big whale buyers.

It is without doubt that some of these crypto treasuries companies will collapse because they can no longer fund and sustain their crypto operations.  The US officials know this and Bessent has just declared that he won't order the US banks to bail out these crypto treasuries companies.

Let's look at the average purchase prices of some big crypto treasuries companies.

We can see that many crypto treasuries companies are deep under water because the current BTC price (around $70K) is way below their purchase prices.

This is a fundamental problem that the BTC market is facing now.

Innotek - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/04/24	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.44	0	Accumulate on weakness
01/13/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.445	0	Accumulate on weakness
02/03/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.43	0	Accumulate on weakness
03/03/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.43	0	Accumulate
04/15/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.36	0	Accumulate
08/14/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.395	0	Hold
10/13/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.55	0	Accumulate on weakness
11/20/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.72	0	Accumulate
01/27/26	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.92	1	Hold
12/09/25	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.655	0	Accumulate

Info-Tech System - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/12/25	CIMB	Info-Tech System	0.83	1.1	Add	PER
08/29/25	OCBC	Info-Tech System	0.86	1	Buy
08/29/25	Aletheia Capital	Info-Tech System	0.86	1.17	Buy	DCF
01/22/26	CIMB	Info-Tech System	0.86	1.1	Add	PER

IHH Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/02/24	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.19	2.58	Buy	Ringgit $8.50 target price, Sum of parts
12/02/24	Lim & Tan	IHH Healthcare	2.19	2.4	Hold
12/30/24	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	2.19	2.43	Buy	Ringgit $7.97, Sum of parts
01/22/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.15	2.58	Buy	Ringgit $8.50 target price, Sum of parts
02/28/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.15	2.58	Buy	Ringgit $8.50 target price, Sum of parts
03/21/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.04	2.48	Buy	Ringgit $8.20 target price, Sum of parts
06/02/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.1	2.48	Buy	Ringgit $8.20 target price, Sum of parts
09/02/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.08	2.61	Buy	Ringgit $8.60 target price, Sum of parts
11/27/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.51	2.61	Buy	Ringgit $8.60 target price, Sum of parts
11/28/25	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.6	2.88	Buy	Ringgit $9.20 target price, Sum of parts

Stock calls for 4 February 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/26	DBS Vickers	ESR-Reit	2.71	3.2	Buy	DCF
02/04/26	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.01	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/04/26	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	8.67	10.13	Buy	RNAV (15% disc)
02/04/26	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.52	0.52	Hold	DDM
02/04/26	CIMB	Keppel Infrastructure	0.52	0.6	Add	DDM
02/04/26	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.52	0.58	Accumulate on weakness
02/04/26	DMG & Partners	Keppel Infrastructure	0.52	0.58	Buy
02/04/26	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.23	0.3	Buy
02/04/26	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.98	1.1	Buy
02/04/26	Lim & Tan	OKP	0.81	0.93	Buy	PER11x FY26
02/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	4.1	5.45	Buy	DDM
02/04/26	CIMB	Parkway Life	4.1	4.97	Add	DDM
02/04/26	DBS Vickers	Singtel	4.86	5.71	Buy	Sum of parts (10% disc)

The latest ISM PMI spiked in January 2026.

Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 9.7 - 3.4 = 6.3

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = 1.9 - 5.4 = -3.5

The ISM PMI increased to 52.6 (+4.7) because of significant increases in new orders, new export orders and local new orders.

The increases in demands caused the production and employment to spike simultaneously.  The backlog of orders also increased because the production couldn't fulfil the new orders and resulted in the depletion of customers' inventories.  What was surprising was the price only increased marginally.

Overall, this latest PMI report was good compared to its previous reports.  We will need to look at the next 2 PMI reports to determine whether this PMI is just an aberration or this is the beginning of something better.

Ifast Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	7.65	10.23	Buy	DCF
02/13/25	Lim & Tan	Ifast Corp	7.65	0	Hold
02/14/25	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	7.87	8.3	Hold	PER25x FY25
03/12/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	7.75	10.88	Buy	DCF
04/10/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	6.2	10.88	Buy	DCF
04/28/25	Lim & Tan	Ifast Corp	7.19	9.42	Hold
04/29/25	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	6.35	7.28	Buy	PER25x FY25
04/29/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	6.35	9.22	Buy	DCF
05/05/25	Lim & Tan	Ifast Corp	6.3	7	Hold
06/30/25	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	6.6	7.28	Buy	PER25x FY25
07/28/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	7.42	9.22	Buy	Sum of parts & DCF
07/29/25	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	8.17	9.92	Buy	PER29x FY26
07/29/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	8.17	10	Buy	Sum of parts & DCF
10/27/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	9.23	10	Buy	Sum of parts & DCF
10/27/25	Lim & Tan	Ifast Corp	9.23	10	Hold
10/28/25	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	9.81	11.12	Buy	PER32x FY26
10/28/25	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	9.81	12	Buy	Sum of parts & DCF
10/28/25	CIMB	Ifast Corp	9.81	11.7	Add	Sum of parts
10/28/25	Aletheia Capital	Ifast Corp	9.81	11.5	Buy	Up from $10.50
10/31/25	Kim Eng	Ifast Corp	9.72	11.95	Buy	PER29.5x FY26
01/06/26	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	9.57	12	Buy	Sum of parts & DCF
01/15/26	Aletheia Capital	Ifast Corp	9.72	13.5	Buy