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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Yanlord - Stock calls

04/12/19OCBCYanlord1.471.75BuyPER5x FY19
05/16/19OCBCYanlord1.441.68BuyPER5x FY19/20
05/17/19DBS VickersYanlord1.441.47HoldPER6x FY19/20
08/14/19OCBCYanlord1.131.68BuyPER5x FY19/20
03/02/20DBS VickersYanlord1.161.1HoldPER4.5x FY20

Yangzijiang - Stock calls

02/04/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.421.82Buy
03/01/19CIMBYangzijiang1.431.61AddSum of parts
03/04/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang1.441.39HoldPB0.9x FY19, Buy @ $1.25
03/04/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.441.82buySum of parts, PB1.1x
05/02/19CIMBYangzijiang1.571.61HoldSum of parts
05/02/19OCBCYangzijiang1.571.45HoldSum of parts
05/02/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.571.82BuySum of parts
07/18/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.51.82Buy
08/07/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.371.82BuySum of parts
08/13/19CIMBYangzijiang1.041.61HoldSum of parts
09/10/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.981.46BuyPB0.84x
10/09/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.951.46Buy
11/12/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.981.46BuyPB0.9x
11/18/19DBS VickersYangzijiang11.68BuySum of parts
12/11/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang1.091.46BuyPB0.84x
12/23/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.071.68Buy
12/27/19OCBCYangzijiang1.131.39BuySum of parts
01/14/20DBS VickersYangzijiang1.161.68Buy
01/20/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang1.161.46Buy
02/01/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.971.68Buy
03/02/20OCBCYangzijiang0.9451.2BuySum of parts
03/02/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.9451.4Buy
03/02/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.9451.5BuySum of parts, PB0.9x
03/17/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.81.25BuyPB0.72x

Y Venture - Stock calls

01/28/19DBS VickersY Venture0.130.11Cease CoverageEV/Ebitda14x FY19
01/28/19CIMBY Venture0.130.1ReducePB1.7x FY20
03/08/19PhillipY Venture0.0780.16BuyPER30x
03/25/19CIMBY Venture0.060.15Add
04/17/19PhillipY Venture0.1560.16Cease Coverage

Stock calls for 31 March 2020

03/31/20CIMBCapitamall Trust1.752.75Add
03/31/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.481.55HoldPER15x FY20
03/31/20CIMBFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.183.1Add
03/31/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.529.6Neutral

Prominent economists El Erian and Janet Yellen got their predictions wrong. Hahaha!

Both prominent economists (El Erian and Janet Yellen) got their predictions wrong.  They projected no recession in 2020 but the IMF had declared a global recession in 2020.

Lady's luck was not on their sides but on our side. Hahaha!

The 2 achilles' heels of the US economy. - Part 3

The US housing market is starting to crumble because of the MBS.

Furthermore, St. Louis FED is projecting about 50m unemployment in Q2 with an employment rate of 32%.

This high unemployment rate is bad news for the housing market too.

Just as we had expected, the US corporate and mortgage debts are starting to blow up.

What will happen when the credit ratings for oil & gas companies get downgraded? - Part 2

Our prediction has come true again!

The oil wealth funds have started selling their assets just as we've projected.

Monday, March 30, 2020

What's next after covid-19 outbreak?

I've been asked by my readers in email for my opinion about some risk after covid-19.

I cannot answer all of the questions.  Therefore, I will pick the question that arouses my interest.

My biggest concern after covid-19 will be hyperinflation because of the excessive monetary and fiscal policies implemented to salvage the economic situation.  Yes, EXCESSIVE is not good!

I'm afraid that hyperinflation will cause the central banks to up their interest rates so fast that it will cause liquidity issues and crumble the financial industry, and this will cause another financial crisis before we can even recover from the covid-19 fallout.

Let's just see how this will unfold before I comment further.

Wing Tai - Stock calls

02/14/19OCBCWing Tai2.032.41Buy
04/17/19OCBCWing Tai2.062.41Buy
05/14/19OCBCWing Tai2.012.41Buy
06/27/19OCBCWing Tai2.052.41Buy
07/15/19OCBCWing Tai2.072.41Buy
10/15/19OCBCWing Tai2.072.27Buy
02/13/20UOB Kay HianWing Tai1.972.54Buy

Wilmar - Stock calls

01/02/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.163.58Buy
01/03/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.133.9Buy
02/22/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.393.58Buy
02/22/19CIMBWilmar3.393.96AddSum of parts
02/22/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.393.9Buy
02/25/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.263.63BuySum of parts
02/25/19DBS VickersWilmar3.263.6BuyDCF, PER15.4x FY19
03/12/19CIMBWilmar3.23.96AddSum of parts
03/12/19DBS VickersWilmar3.23.6Buy
03/13/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.243.63Buy
03/20/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.33.9Buy
04/08/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.483.9Buy
04/09/19Credit SussieWilmar3.494.2Outperform
05/02/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.643.9Buy
05/13/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.513.8BuySum of parts
05/13/19DBS VickersWilmar3.513.86BuyDCF, PER15.6x FY19
05/16/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.53.94BuySum of parts
05/16/19CIMBWilmar3.53.96AddSum of parts
06/06/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.33.94Buy
06/13/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.413.9BuyPER12.8x FY20
06/13/19Credit SussieWilmar3.414.3Outperform
07/03/19Kim EngWilmar3.734.21BuyDCF & PER17.5x FY20
07/09/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.793.9Buy
07/15/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.764.5BuySum of parts
07/15/19Credit SussieWilmar3.764.4Outperform
07/16/19CIMBWilmar3.835.54AddNormal target price is $3.96
07/16/19DBS VickersWilmar3.834.3BuySum of parts, PER16.2x FY20
07/17/19OCBCWilmar3.834.26BuySum of parts
07/26/19UOB Kay HianWilmar4.064.5BuySum of parts
07/26/19JP MorganWilmar4.064.8Overweight
08/14/19DMG & PartnersWilmar4.054.5BuySum of parts
08/14/19UOB Kay HianWilmar4.054.5Buy
08/15/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.864.4Buy
08/16/19DBS VickersWilmar3.784.25BuySum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
08/22/19Kim EngWilmar3.813.89Hold
09/04/19Kim EngWilmar3.83.89HoldDCF
09/11/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.84.5BuySum of parts
09/13/19DBS VickersWilmar3.864.25BuySum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
09/24/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.724.4Buy
09/30/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.724.75BuySum of parts
10/09/19Kim EngWilmar3.633.89HoldDCF
10/09/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.634.4Buy
11/12/19UOB Kay HianWilmar3.834.4Buy
11/13/19DMG & PartnersWilmar3.854.75BuySum of parts
11/14/19DBS VickersWilmar3.964.35BuySum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
12/10/19UOB Kay HianWilmar4.14.75BuySum of parts
12/10/19DBS VickersWilmar4.14.6BuySum of parts, PER17.6x FY20
12/10/19JP MorganWilmar4.15Overweight
12/19/19DMG & PartnersWilmar4.084.75Buy
01/08/20DMG & PartnersWilmar4.294.75BuySum of parts
01/08/20Credit SussieWilmar4.294.8Outperform
01/30/20UOB Kay HianWilmar3.994.75Buy
02/14/20DMG & PartnersWilmar4.14.43BuySum of parts
02/21/20CIMBWilmar4.044.58AddSum of parts
02/21/20DMG & PartnersWilmar4.044.77BuySum of parts
02/21/20UOB Kay HianWilmar4.044.75Buy
02/24/20UOB Kay HianWilmar4.114.6Buy
02/24/20DBS VickersWilmar4.114.6BuySum of parts, PER17.1x FY20
02/25/20Kim EngWilmar4.054.37Hold
02/28/20Morgan StanleyWilmar4.155Overweight
02/28/20Credit SussieWilmar4.154.8Outperform
02/28/20JP MorganWilmar4.155Overweight
03/24/20DMG & PartnersWilmar2.94.3BuySum of parts
03/27/20DBS VickersWilmar3.184BuySum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
03/30/20UOB Kay HianWilmar3.224Buy