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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

APAC Realty - Stock calls

07/15/19PhillipAPAC Realty0.5450.65BuyDCF
08/06/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.5250.65BuyDCF
08/06/19DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.5250.48HoldPER10x FY20
08/08/19PhillipAPAC Realty0.5150.58BuyDCF
08/13/19CIMBAPAC Realty0.510.6AddPER10x FY20
09/12/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.4950.65Buy
11/14/19CIMBAPAC Realty0.5150.66AddDCF
11/14/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.5150.6BuyDCF
11/14/19DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.5150.46HoldPER12x FY20
11/18/19PhillipAPAC Realty0.50.55AccumulateDCF
12/16/19DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.5050.6Buy
02/25/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.470.6BuyDCF
02/25/20DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.470.52HoldPER12x FY20
02/25/20CIMBAPAC Realty0.470.61Add
02/26/20PhillipAPAC Realty0.490.55AccumulateDCF
05/29/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.350.6Buy
06/03/20CIMBAPAC Realty0.4050.538AddDCF
06/11/20DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.420.41HoldPER19x FY21
06/15/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.3950.5BuyDCF

Amara - Stock calls

12/11/19DMG & PartnersAmara0.450.88Buy
03/04/20DMG & PartnersAmara0.40.78BuyRNAV (44% discount)

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

07/19/19DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.461.5BuyDCF
07/25/19Lim & TanAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.470Hold
07/26/19Kim EngAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.471.6BuyDDM
11/07/19DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.41.5BuyDCF
01/31/20Lim & TanAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.430Hold
02/03/20Kim EngAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.461.6BuyDDM
03/02/20DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.41.5BuyDCF
03/05/20MacquarieAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.421.55Outperform
05/15/20DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.181.4BuyDCF
05/28/20MacquarieAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.221.45Outperform
06/02/20DBS VickersAIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit1.261.4Buy

Stock calls for 30 June 2020

06/30/20DBS VickersAEM2.933.53BuyPER10.4x FY21
06/30/20CIMBElite ComReit0.71.3Add
06/30/20DBS VickersIHH Healthcare1.782.05BuySum of parts
06/30/20CIMBIHH Healthcare1.782.03AddSum of parts, Ringgit $6.25 target price
06/30/20AminvestmentIHH Healthcare1.782.14BuyDCF, Ringgit $6.58 target price
06/30/20Kim EngIHH Healthcare1.781.97BuyRinggit $6.05 target price
06/30/20DBS VickersJapfa0.670.82BuySum of parts, PER10.5x FY21
06/30/20DBS VickersSGX8.067.4Fully Valued

SUTD made a bizarre epidemic prediction from its data analysis. - Part 2

It looks crystal clear that SUTD has proven itself to be a 3rd rated university because the covid-19 outbreak won't end in July 2020 for Singapore.  In fact, there will be more reported cases in July because the government has started COVID testing for students and citizens above 13 years old.

SUTD had made an incomplete data analysis, a.k.a a flawed analysis, with a singularity mindset instead of using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies.  This singularity analysis will have a big margin of error which is exactly what is happening in SUTD COVID publication.

The UK ex-PM, Teresa May, also made the same mistake by relying on flawed data analysis to call for a Brexit referendum because the flawed data analysis showed that the majority would vote against Brexit.  In the end, the British voted for Brexit.

Here's a simple example of a singularity analysis of data.

If we just look at the data above, we can see that the countries with lower infected cases have reported more deaths than Singapore.  This will give the impression that SG is fudging its COVID statistics if we just study the data and apply only quantitative analysis.  However, if we also apply qualitative analysis on the data, we will be able to justify the low death number because the COVID virus strain in SG is less lethal than the west and Malaysia.

A complete data analysis which involves qualitative and quantitative methodologies will reveal that the COVID outbreak won't end in July 2020 in Singapore because SG has a less lethal but more infectious virus strain.  Furthermore, there is likely to be a 2nd wave of outbreak when the economy reopens because of this infectious strain.

The US debt market is going to implode! - Part 2

The US FED is buying more auto-makers bonds now! We did warn about the US car debts in May 2020.

Why is the US FED buying auto-maker bonds?

Well, the US FED wants to support the auto-makers so that they don't need to meet their cashflow needs by discounting their new car prices since doing so will impact the secondary car market (used car prices).  If the auto-makers rush to slash their new car prices, the US car debts will suffer massive markdowns and this will expedite a crash in the car debt market.

Monday, June 29, 2020

No need to vote Indranee Rajah into our parliament.

Have you guys ever wondered where the phrase, "Absolute power corrupts", came from?

There was a psychological experiment conducted to substantiate this phrase and this experiment was called the Lucifer Effect.  It was named after a fallen angel called Lucifer who turned into a devil.

This experiment was supposed to last a few weeks but was terminated in just 6 days because it went out of control when the participants (guards) were given absolute powers to do many things in the prison.  Basically, there was no supervisory of the guards and self-supervision didn't work.

The participants (guards) were selected based on their good social standings but they turned evil after they had a taste of absolute power.  Hilter also succumbed to the Lucifer Effect in the same way.

Therefore, we must not allow having only a 1-party system in Singapore without opposition.  For your information, nominated MPs have no voting rights in the parliament because they were not elected to represent us.  When a minister has such thinking, we will suffer in the future if such a minister is voted into the parliament.

Please think twice before you vote as you will be voting for the future political structure in Singapore.

AEM - Stock calls

07/18/19CIMBAEM1.041.23AddPER10x FY20
07/29/19Kim EngAEM1.221.4BuyPB3x FY19/20
08/14/19Kim EngAEM1.091.4BuyRoe-g/Coe-g
09/16/19Kim EngAEM1.191.5BuyRoe-g/Coe-g
10/03/19Kim EngAEM1.121.5BuyRoe-g/Coe-g, PB3.2x FY19/20
10/11/19AmfrasersAEM1.161.34OutperformPER11x FY20
11/04/19AmfrasersAEM1.531.8OutperformPER12x FY20
11/29/19DBS VickersAEM1.712.38BuyPER12.1x FY20
12/10/19DBS VickersAEM1.912.38BuyPER12.1x FY20
12/10/19Kim EngAEM1.912.12Buy
01/15/20AmfrasersAEM2.162.57BuyPER14x FY20
01/15/20Kim EngAEM2.162.58Buy
01/24/20DBS VickersAEM2.052.38BuyPER12.1x FY20
02/11/20Kim EngAEM1.882.58Buy
02/28/20DBS VickersAEM2.242.52BuyPER11.2x FY20
03/10/20Kim EngAEM1.832.82BuyPB3x FY20/21
03/10/20AmfrasersAEM1.832.6OutperformPER12x FY20
03/19/20CIMBAEM1.492.71AddGGM, PB4.05x
04/02/20DBS VickersAEM1.642.29Buy
04/20/20Kim EngAEM2.112.82Buy
04/30/20DBS VickersAEM2.372.47HoldPER10x FY20/21
04/30/20Kim EngAEM2.373.18BuyPER4.1x FY20/21
05/08/20Kim EngAEM3.584.04BuyPER4.8x FY20/21
05/11/20CIMBAEM3.063.58AddGGM, PB4.86x
05/11/20DBS VickersAEM3.062.87HoldPER10x FY21
05/14/20AmfrasersAEM3.153.61OutperformPER12x FY20

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

08/16/19AmfrasersAccordia Golf Trust0.5350.67OutperformDDM
11/15/19AmfrasersAccordia Golf Trust0.610.67Outperform
12/02/19AmfrasersAccordia Golf Trust0.70.67Outperform

A-Reit - Stock calls

07/03/19Kim EngA-Reit3.133.3BuyDDM
07/04/19DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.152.9Neutral
07/30/19DBS VickersA-Reit3.053.4BuyDCF
07/31/19UOB Kay HianA-Reit3.033.01HoldBuy @ $2.78
09/11/19UOB Kay HianA-Reit3.143.25HoldDDM, Buy @ $2.98
09/19/19Kim EngA-Reit3.113.3Buy
10/04/19Lim & TanA-Reit3.080Hold
10/07/19DBS VickersA-Reit3.083.4Buy
10/10/19DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.123NeutralDDM
11/04/19DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.173NeutralDDM
11/05/19UOB Kay HianA-Reit3.123.28HoldBuy @ $2.99
11/11/19UOB Kay HianA-Reit2.893.25Buy
11/21/19Kim EngA-Reit2.913.35Buy
12/03/19Kim EngA-Reit2.973.35BuyDDM
12/06/19Morgan StanleyA-Reit3.013.04Overweight
12/10/19DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.033Neutral
12/19/19DBS VickersA-Reit2.923.4Buy
01/10/20DBS VickersA-Reit3.063.45BuyDCF
02/03/20UOB Kay HianA-Reit3.153.35BuyDDM
02/03/20DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.153.1NeutralDDM
02/04/20DBS VickersA-Reit3.133.45Buy
03/02/20DBS VickersA-Reit3.063.45BuyDCF
04/20/20DMG & PartnersA-Reit2.893NeutralDDM
04/29/20UOB Kay HianA-Reit2.863.35Buy
04/29/20DBS VickersA-Reit2.863.45Buy
06/02/20DBS VickersA-Reit3.163.45Buy
06/23/20DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.133Neutral
06/26/20Morgan StanleyA-Reit3.113.1Overweight

Stock calls for 29 June 2020

06/29/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.521.98BuyDCF
06/29/20Lim & TanComfortdelgro1.520Hold
06/29/20Lim & TanGenting0.760Hold
06/29/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.9551.22Buy
06/29/20AmfrasersYanlord1.161.3OutperformSum of parts

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Baltic dry index - 1749

Today, Friday, June 26 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 11 points, reaching 1749 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 967

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

US bank shares dropped after FED capped their dividend payouts and share buybacks.

The US bank shares fell just as expected after FED capped their dividend payouts and share buybacks.  We were not saying this outcome on hindsight because we wrote about it in April 2020.

Why did the US Fed stop the banks from doing such things?  It is to force the banks to conserve cash and avoid credit rating downgrades.

We had stated that such activities would cause the share prices to drop in our previous post below.

Japan should stop its lies about Diaoyu Island.

A fact is a fact.  Telling a lie thousands of times won't make it real.

We had stated numerous times that Diaoyu Island belonged to China inherently.

Paracel islands also belonged to China.

Friday, June 26, 2020

Yongnam - Stock calls

04/05/19CIMBYongnam0.1860.33AddPB0.7x FY19
05/17/19CIMBYongnam0.1690.33AddPB0.7x FY19

Yoma - Stock calls

04/11/19DMG & PartnersYoma0.320.57BuySum of parts (20% discount)
06/03/19DBS VickersYoma0.330.4BuyRNAV (60% discount)
11/15/19DBS VickersYoma0.3750.5BuyRNAV (45% discount)
12/26/19DMG & PartnersYoma0.3350.57Buy
02/17/20DBS VickersYoma0.3250.5Buy
05/15/20DBS VickersYoma0.1970.5Buy
06/22/20PhillipYoma0.2450.46BuySum of parts (20% discount)
06/25/20DBS VickersYoma0.30.5BuyPER12x FY20

Yanlord - Stock calls

04/12/19OCBCYanlord1.471.75BuyPER5x FY19
05/16/19OCBCYanlord1.441.68BuyPER5x FY19/20
05/17/19DBS VickersYanlord1.441.47HoldPER6x FY19/20
08/14/19OCBCYanlord1.131.68BuyPER5x FY19/20
03/02/20DBS VickersYanlord1.161.1HoldPER4.5x FY20

Stock calls for 26 June 2020

06/26/20Morgan StanleyA-Reit3.113.1Overweight
06/26/20UOB Kay HianAvi-Tech0.390.57Buy
06/26/20DMG & PartnersBumitama0.440.48NeutralPER12x FY21
06/26/20Morgan StanleyCity Developments8.3210.5Overweight
06/26/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.331.35NeutralPER14x FY21
06/26/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.150.13SellSum of parts
06/26/20DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.680.85Buy
06/26/20DMG & PartnersKimly0.2250.26BuyDCF
06/26/20Morgan StanleyNetlink0.9751Overweight
06/26/20Morgan StanleyUOB20.2722.9Overweight

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Yangzijiang - Stock calls

05/02/19CIMBYangzijiang1.571.61HoldSum of parts
05/02/19OCBCYangzijiang1.571.45HoldSum of parts
05/02/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.571.82BuySum of parts
07/18/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.51.82Buy
08/07/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.371.82BuySum of parts
08/13/19CIMBYangzijiang1.041.61HoldSum of parts
09/10/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.981.46BuyPB0.84x
10/09/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.951.46Buy
11/12/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.981.46BuyPB0.9x
11/18/19DBS VickersYangzijiang11.68BuySum of parts
12/11/19UOB Kay HianYangzijiang1.091.46BuyPB0.84x
12/23/19DBS VickersYangzijiang1.071.68Buy
12/27/19OCBCYangzijiang1.131.39BuySum of parts
01/14/20DBS VickersYangzijiang1.161.68Buy
01/20/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang1.161.46Buy
02/01/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.971.68Buy
03/02/20OCBCYangzijiang0.9451.2BuySum of parts
03/02/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.9451.4Buy
03/02/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.9451.5BuySum of parts, PB0.9x
03/17/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.81.25BuyPB0.72x
04/08/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.9151.5BuySum of parts
04/14/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.941.25BuyPB0.72x
04/30/20CIMBYangzijiang0.9751.37AddSum of parts
05/04/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.9851.22BuyPB0.78x
05/04/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.9851.4BuySum of parts
06/15/20DBS VickersYangzijiang0.981.4BuySum of parts

Wing Tai - Stock calls

04/17/19OCBCWing Tai2.062.41Buy
05/14/19OCBCWing Tai2.012.41Buy
06/27/19OCBCWing Tai2.052.41Buy
07/15/19OCBCWing Tai2.072.41Buy
10/15/19OCBCWing Tai2.072.27Buy
02/13/20UOB Kay HianWing Tai1.972.54Buy