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Saturday, August 31, 2019

The Strait Times Index (STI) has a high probability to close in the red in August. - Part 2


https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-strait-times-index-sti-has-high.html

We are right about the STI ending in the red (-5.88%) in August 2019 and this August curse has not been broken yet insofar. Yeah!

2-year US treasury and 10-year US treasury yield curves.

The 2y-10y treasuries yield curves had inverted 3x in August 2019.

The 3m-10y treasuries yield curves had inverted for the whole of August 2019.

Both the aforesaid yield curves are being closely monitored by the US FED for signs of recession.

Baltic dry index - 2277

Today, Thursday, August 29 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 10 points, reaching 2277 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 904

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, August 30, 2019

MIT - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 Lim & Tan MIT 0.36 0.405 Buy Mid-point of $0.4-0.41

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.655 0.87 Buy
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.66 0.83 Buy DCF
08/27/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.525 0.83 Buy

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.67 1.7 Accumulate PER15x FY19
05/02/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.63 1.63 Neutral PER15x FY20

Stock calls for 30 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/30/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.13 2.3 Buy DCF
08/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.675 1.02 Buy DDM
08/30/19 CIMB Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.9 Add DDM
08/30/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.74 2.55 Neutral DDM

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/19/19 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.084 0.06 Sell Sum of parts
03/19/19 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.084 0.158 Hold PB0.48x CY18

Memtech - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.03 0 Buy on weakness
02/28/19 CIMB Memtech 1.03 1.08 Hold PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.985 1.33 Buy PER11x FY19
04/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.96 1.33 Buy
05/15/19 CIMB Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
06/17/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.33 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.35 Buy
01/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.45 Buy
02/09/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.25 1.45 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.31 1.45 Buy
05/02/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.4 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.6 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.45 1.65 Buy DCF
07/30/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.38 1.43 Hold
07/31/19 CIMB Mapletree North Asia 1.42 1.5 Add DDM
08/14/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.28 1.43 Buy

Stock calls for 29 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/29/19 Lim & Tan Avi-Tech 0.27 0 Buy
08/29/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.425 0.6 Add
08/29/19 Macquarie DBS 24.02 25.8 Neutral
08/29/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.15 0.14 Neutral FCFE
08/29/19 UOB Kay Hian ISOTeam 0.23 0.34 Buy
08/29/19 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.23 0.31 Buy DCF
08/29/19 Macquarie UOB 24.41 27.2 Neutral PB

AP news is creating a false impression of South China Sea issue again.

https://news.yahoo.com/duterte-arrives-beijing-raise-south-025940861.html

The AP news keeps reporting that the 2016 Hague arbitration invalidated China's claims.  What is this 2016 Hague arbitration?  AP news refuses to name PCA directly because it wants to mislead people that it is referring to ICJ which is under the UN.  PCA is a private entity and is not under the UN.  We've stated this many times before.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-truth-about-south-china-sea-ruling.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-1947-map-showed-that-south-china-sea.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/icj-has-declared-that-it-is-not.html

Public vandalism is part and parcel of Hong Kong protest.

Is public vandalism allowed in the HK protest?

The police must punish those who destroy public properties deliberately.  They're lucky they're not in SG because vandalism of public properties carries a jail term and strokes of caning.

These are what the HK protestors called peaceful protests. Take a look and learn the new definition of "peaceful".

A picture tells a thousand words and a video tells a thousand pictures.


Do you see peaceful protests and police brutality?
or
Do you see riots and protestors' brutality?

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

UBS urges investors to sell stocks due to US-China trade war.

https://www.ft.com/content/98318f9a-c808-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f

UBS is very bearish about any potential US-China trade detente and concludes that a trade deal between these 2 nations would be hard to reach in the near future.  Therefore, it has recommended investors to sell stocks to avoid the volatilities caused by Trump's tirades (tweets).

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.26 1.42 Add DDM
01/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.33 1.39 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.4 Buy
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.5 Buy
01/23/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.3 Hold DDM
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.39 1.5 Buy
01/23/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.34 1.44 Add DDM
02/28/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.39 1.3 Hold
03/07/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.42 1.5 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.44 1.45 Hold
04/29/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.4 Hold
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.6 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.48 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.47 1.38 Hold
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.39 Hold Buy @ $1.26
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.5 1.6 Buy
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.85 Buy
07/23/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.4 Hold
07/24/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.55 Hold
07/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.6 1.39 Hold DDM

Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 1.97 2.04 Hold
01/18/19 CIMB Mapletree Industrial 1.99 2.1 Add DDM
01/23/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 1.98 2.22 Buy PER16.8x FY19
01/23/19 DIR Mapletree Industrial 1.98 1.78 Underperform
01/24/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 1.96 2.03 Neutral DDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 1.96 2.2 Buy DDM
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.03 1.94 Hold Buy @ $1.78
02/12/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 2.03 2.04 Hold
02/15/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 1.99 2.03 Neutral
02/19/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 1.99 1.98 Hold
02/20/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 1.99 2.3 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.12 2.3 Buy
04/04/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 2.11 2.25 Buy DDM
06/19/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.17 2.03 Neutral
06/25/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 2.18 2.25 Buy
07/11/19 CIMB Mapletree Industrial 2.29 2.32 Add DDM
07/11/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 2.29 2.4 Buy DDM
07/11/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.29 2.5 Buy DCF
07/22/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.31 2.03 Neutral DDM, PB1.36x FY19
07/24/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 2.3 2.06 Hold
07/24/19 CIMB Mapletree Industrial 2.3 2.37 Hold
07/25/19 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 2.25 2.29 Hold
07/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.25 1.94 Hold
08/26/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.28 2.03 Neutral

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Code Company Last Target Call Percent Valuation
01/24/19 OCBC N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.72 1.79 Hold 4.07
01/24/19 CIMB N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.72 1.79 Add 4.07 DDM
01/24/19 DBS Vickers N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.72 2 Buy 16.28 DCF
01/24/19 Kim Eng N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.72 1.6 Hold -6.98
02/08/19 DBS Vickers N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.81 2 Buy 10.50
02/08/19 CIMB N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.81 1.9 Add 4.97
03/20/19 CIMB N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.83 1.94 Add 6.01 DDM
04/04/19 Kim Eng N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.87 1.8 Hold -3.74
04/24/19 OCBC N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.84 1.85 Hold 0.54
04/25/19 DBS Vickers N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.89 2 Buy 5.82 DCF
05/28/19 CIMB N2IU Mapletree Commercial 1.93 2.03 Add 5.18
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.04 2.22 Buy 8.82 DDM
07/10/19 CIMB N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.05 2.03 Add -0.98
07/19/19 DBS Vickers N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.07 2.25 Buy 8.70 DCF
07/26/19 OCBC N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.1 1.89 Sell -10.00
07/26/19 UOB Kay Hian N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.1 2.22 Buy 5.71
07/26/19 Lim & Tan N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.1 0 Hold -100.00
07/29/19 Kim Eng N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.07 2.1 Hold 1.45 DDM
08/22/19 CIMB N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.08 2.24 Add 7.69
08/28/19 UOB Kay Hian N2IU Mapletree Commercial 2.12 2.22 Buy 4.72

Stock calls for 28 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/28/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.575 0.8 Buy
08/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Commercial 2.12 2.22 Buy
08/28/19 DMG & Partners UG Healthcare 0.18 0.3 Buy PER11x FY20
08/28/19 Amfrasers Uni-Asia 0.73 1.24 Buy PB0.6x FY20, PER8.5x FY20

The Hongkongers have everything to lose, not nothing to lose as proclaimed by the protestors.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/now-never-hong-kong-protesters-230324090.html

The Hongkongers don't really know what they're doing and also the repercussions they'll face in the future.

HK will become a sunset city soon because of the latest economic measures in Shenzhen.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hong-kong-is-being-marginalized-by-china.html

They claimed that the housing cost was too high in HK but it was the HK residents (landlords) that blocked the revamp of the housing policy especially the land sales.

Tung Chee Hwa (ex-chief executive of HK) tried to resolve the housing problem by releasing more lands but he was forced to step down after facing severe protests against it because the land sales would bring down the property prices and rentals.  Thereafter, nobody is willing to revamp the housing policy for fear of the same backlash.

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Hong Kong is being marginalized by China.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3024421/china-extends-pilot-free-trade-zones-strategic-border-regions

China has just announced 6 new FTZz to fight the US-China trade war and also to marginalize HK.  FTZs are basically tariff-free or have negligible tariffs to encourage a free flow of trading goods and services.

HK is really a sunset city now.  Nonetheless, HK is still part of China and China has promised that Hongkongers will be accorded with the same status as Shenzhen residents if they work and invest in Shenzhen.  Therefore, there will be an outflow of talents in HK in the future.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/omg-china-has-displaced-hong-kong-with.html

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.77 0.92 Buy
01/02/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.77 0.88 Buy DCF
02/12/19 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.855 0 Hold
02/12/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.855 0.94 Buy DDM
02/12/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.855 0.92 Buy DCF
02/26/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.835 0.95 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.85 0.94 Buy
03/25/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy DDM
04/25/19 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.87 0 Hold
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.94 Buy DDM
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.92 Buy
04/26/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy DDM
04/30/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.88 0.97 Buy DDM
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.87 0.96 Buy DDM
05/29/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.86 1 Buy DDM
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.845 0.96 Buy
06/17/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.87 1 Buy DDM
06/25/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.88 0.96 Buy
07/12/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.875 0.98 Buy DDM
08/15/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.89 0.98 outperform
08/15/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.89 0.98 Buy DDM
08/19/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.89 1 Buy DDM
08/23/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.895 1.1 Buy DCF

M1 - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 Kim Eng M1 2.09 1.63 Sell
01/04/19 Phillip M1 2.08 2.06 Accept Offer Offer $2.06
01/08/19 OCBC M1 2.06 2.06 Accept Offer Offer $2.06
01/14/19 DMG & Partners M1 2.07 2.06 Neutral Offer $2.06
01/29/19 CIMB M1 2.06 2.06 Hold Offer $2.06
02/12/19 Kim Eng M1 2.04 1.77 Sell
03/07/19 OCBC M1 2.05 2.06 Accept Offer Offer $2.06

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 Lim & Tan Lian Beng 0.515 0 Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 27 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.3 1.54 Buy
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.08 2.04 Hold Buy @ $1.85
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.58 2.06 Buy
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.65 0.82 Buy
08/27/19 CIMB Jumbo 0.37 0.47 Add
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Reit 1.24 1.21 Hold Buy @ $1.1
08/27/19 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.525 0.83 Buy
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Suntec Reit 1.89 1.96 Hold Buy @ $1.79

Renminbi has depreciated further after China's retaliation.

Blue line: USD/CNH (offshore)
Black line: USD/CNY (onshore)

RMB has depreciated further after our post below.  RMB has the potential to depreciate to 7.30 when the US-China trade tension rises further.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/huge-risk-free-arbitrage-opportunity.html

Monday, August 26, 2019

Trump lied again to stop the stock markets from falling.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/yuan-pares-back-losses-trade-041400776.html

Trump proclaimed that China called to request for a trade renegotiation and the stock markets recovered a little bit after that.

However, China's foreign ministry stated that it was unaware of such a call between the US and China.

We all know that Trump is a congenital liar and he will lie to keep the stock markets up because his cronies are losing big in the financial market.

KSH - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/15/19 OCBC KSH 0.52 0.81 Buy
04/17/19 OCBC KSH 0.535 0.81 Buy
05/31/19 Lim & Tan KSH 0.45 0 Buy
06/03/19 OCBC KSH 0.45 0 Cease coverage

Koufu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.63 0.8 Buy PER17x FY19
03/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.67 0.95 Buy PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19 Lim & Tan Koufu 0.67 0.85 Buy PER18x FY19
04/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.805 0.95 Buy
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.77 0.8 Hold PER17x FY19
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.75 0.95 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.675 0.95 Buy
06/28/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.675 0.85 Buy PER17x FY19
07/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.72 0.95 Buy
08/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.71 0.95 Buy
08/08/19 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.71 0.88 Buy PER17x FY20

Kimly - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.24 0.27 Neutral
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.245 0.24 Neutral DCF
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.24 0.24 Neutral
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.245 0.23 Neutral DCF
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.23 0.23 Neutral
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Kimly 0.235 0.23 Neutral DCF

Stock calls for 26 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/26/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.725 0.75 Neutral
08/26/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.07 2.18 Neutral
08/26/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.64 2.68 Neutral
08/26/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.54 1.66 Accumulate
08/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.68 2.77 Accumulate
08/26/19 Amfrasers IFS Capital 0.22 0.3 Outperform PB0.6x FY20
08/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Corp 5.88 7.61 Buy Sum of parts
08/26/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.74 1.71 Neutral
08/26/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.28 2.03 Neutral
08/26/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 8.3 13.9 Buy
08/26/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.51 0.53 Hold
08/26/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.51 0.6 Buy PER21x FY20