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Friday, March 31, 2017

Germany VS USA in world trade.

It is useless for Germany to file a complaint against USA in WTO because Trump had said it would ignore WTO ruling.  There is pretty much nothing to be done.  If Germany antagonizes USA too much, USA will demand more money from NATO or even pull out of NATO.

Germany can only sit in a corner to suck its own thumb.

Singapore stock calls for 31 March 2017

Wilmar has lost its prerogative to sell sugar processed by its mills

Wilmar can no longer force farmers to let it sells sugar after processing the sugar in its mills.  This is a business setback for Wilmar because farmers can sell the sugar themselves.  Wilmar will definitely lose some businesses after processing the sugar.

Massive UFO in Gulf sighted.

This time is Underwater Flying Object (UFO).  Heehee!

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Baltic dry index - 1240

Today, Friday, March 24 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 44 points, reaching 1240 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
Related Stocks: Cosco, Sembcorp Marine.

US rig count - 809

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 20 this week to 809.
A year ago, 464 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 652 rigs sought oil and 155 explored for natural gas this week. Two were listed as miscellaneous.
Texas increased by eight rigs and Oklahoma added seven. New Mexico rose by three while Alaska, California, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and West Virginia gained one each.
Louisiana declined by two and Wyoming by one.
Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Ohio, and Utah were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
Related Stocks: Keppe Corp, Sembcorp Marine, Cosco.

Friday, March 24, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 24 March 2017

Japan is trying to stir troubles in South China Sea.

Japan will regret this military move because it will give China the legitimate reason to send its aircraft carrier to Japan's sea.

Oxford's archives reveal Diaoyu islands belong to China.

Historical texts from Oxford's Bodleian Library show Diaoyu islands belong to China.

Japan! Please stop lying to the world anymore when China can prove that it is the real owner from its own documentations and also from Oxford's archives.

China is advancing in artificial intelligence technology.

China is focusing on AI technology because it has wide applications in quantitive finance, complementary medicine, self-driving, etc.  China manages to win the AI tournament in such a short span of development denotes its rapid advancement in this industry.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 22 March 2017

First Ship Lease Trust is in trouble too.

FSLT's auditor has raised financial concerns because liability has exceeded current assets by about USD$180m.

We've been warning about shipping trusts.  Please read our previous posts to understand more about shipping trust.

Triyards falls about 20% today!

Triyards is also affected by Ezra's bankruptcy.  We raised this concern in our previous posting.

What could WTO do for South Korea?

SK had filed a complaint about China in WTO but could WTO do anything for SK?

WTO back-stabbed China by not granting market economy status automatically to China but China still supported WTO when USA stated it would ignore any WTO ruling.

WTO would be a useless organization if China also declared overtly that WTO had no jurisdiction.  USA and China are trying to establish a cordial relationship in April 2017 when the 2 countries meet in USA.  They will charter how the relationship will be for the next 50 years which will be of paramount importance for the world.

If WTO rules against China, China may retaliate by standing behind USA to ignore WTO ruling.  This will definitely make WTO look bad.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Rickmers will have a hard time to restructure its loans.

Brilliant analysts will know that the shipping industry cannot withstand economic downturns.  Many shippers will renege on its long-term chartering contracts with shipping trusts during economic downturns because many shippers cannot survive the downturns and have to downsize.  Shipping trusts can't do anything or sue their customers because their customers won't use shipping reits anymore if they get sued.

When shipping trusts are losing customers and ship values are declining simultaneously, banks will demand the shipping trusts to top up the difference in ship values or recall the ship loans.  Therefore, it's very difficult for the shipping trusts to restructure their loans unless creditors are willing to take heavy writedowns.

Emas Offshore gives bankruptcy warning!
Ezra owns about 75% of Emas and Emas is affected by Ezra's bankruptcy.  Let's see Triyards will declare the same concern or not as Ezra owns about 61%.

Singapore stock calls for 21 March 2017

What happened to Nam Cheong today?

Nam Cheong tanked about 33% earlier in the day because of financial concerns raised by its auditor.

Let's look at Nam Cheong stock calls.

There is not a single BUY call for Nam Cheong except from Amfraser in the past.  Therefore, there is no real reason to buy Nam Cheong and retail investors would have avoided this company and suffer no real losses.  Avoid oil & gas companies because their customers cannot withstand economic downturns based on qualitative analysis.

What led to Ezra's bankruptcy in USA?

2 ship owners cancelled chartering agreements with Ezra and Ezra's invoices were piling up fast.  The shipping industry is a precarious environment and many shippers cannot withstand recessions or economic downturns.  However, this is often not highlighted by analysts in their qualitative section of their research reports.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Stock calls for Ezra.

Lim & Tan had warned about Ezra in Oct 2016 by giving an AVOID call, CIMB gave a REDUCE call in June 2016 and UOB gave a SELL call as early as August 2016.  Therefore, investors would have avoided Ezra as early as June 2016 without suffering from this mayhem (Bankruptcy).

Singapore stock calls for 20 March 2017

DBS economists are so optimistic about Singapore GDP growth in 2017.

Let's hope DBS economists don't make the same mistake as their CEO regarding swiber and ezra.

Ezra's subsidiaries file for bankruptcy.

It's not unexpected as Oil & Gas industry is in a doldrum.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Crude oil spa is the latest fashion now!

Crude oil spa has tremendous health benefits.  It will expedite wound healing and can cure skin diseases like eczema, sclerosis etc.  It is known to be able to cure more than 70 diseases.

Germany may file WTO suit against USA but it's just a wishful thinking.

Trump had already said he would ignore WTO ruling and Germany couldn't do anything about it unless Germany wanted to start a trade war with USA.  If Germany makes Trump too furious, Trump will no longer support NATO and other EU members will blame Germany for USA withdrawal from NATO.  The ensuing outcome will be Germany will have to swallow this border tax thing and suck its thumb in a corner.

Baltic dry index - 1196

Today, Friday, March 17 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 24 points, reaching 1196 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
Related stocks: Cosco & Sembcorp Marine.

US rig count - 789

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 21 this week to 789.
A year ago, 476 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 631 rigs sought oil and 157 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Oklahoma increased by 10 rigs, North Dakota added five, Texas gained four, Colorado and Utah were each up two, and Alaska gained one.
Wyoming lost two. Louisiana and New Mexico dropped one each.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

How rude can Trump be on media?

He's so selfish because he's so unwilling to give a handshake.

Friday, March 17, 2017

South Korea is so ignorant about THAAD.

Military experts know that THAAD is useless against NK because NK will use mobile rockets launchers against SK as NK has more than 10,000 such launchers.  THAAD is useless against rockets launchers.  NK's rockets launchers can target Seoul because of the close proximity.

Singapore stock calls for 17 March 2017

Singapore non-oil domestic exports surge significantly.

Singapore is doing well because of China as China is our biggest export destination.  February is an exceptional month because of CNY exports to Chinese countries like Taiwan and China.  This is just an aberration which will not be repeated after February.  This CNY export was definitely better than last year's CNY as there's burgeoning growth in the Chinese middle class.  China is changing its economy structurally into a consuming nation.

We have to be wary of our dependent on China as SK's lesson is what we will encounter in the future when we offend China.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Corruption is still rampant in KLIA. Taiwanese girl was detained wrongfully.

This incident is widely reported on Taiwan news channels and China.

How could a Taiwanese girl be detained for 35 hours for no offence?  To detain someone for 35 hours is no small matter and require a high ranking officer to approve such detention.  Malaysia should just refuse entry and close the case if this to be handled properly.  However, the Malaysian custom officer saw this as an opportunity to demand money from the traveller.

Malaysia Boleh!

Japan navy carrier is sailing to Singapore.

Singapore has angered China that China commercial ships have stopped coming to our port.  Instead of welcoming commercial vessels, SG is welcoming military vessel instead which doesn't contribute economically to SG.

Sigh! What is our government doing!  Japan invaded and attacked SG before and we're welcoming its naval vessel to SG.

Singapore stock calls for 16 March 2017

China raises money market rates after FED move.

What does this mean in the real economic term?

This action means China is draining cheap money out of the monetary system and replacing it with more expensive money.

This will help to curtail excessive spending and investment but also increase inflation.

Empty shopping malls are springing up in USA! The real economy is not doing well.

The real economy in USA is not doing as well as projected on wall street.  QE only helps to propel wall street but not main street.  Empty shopping malls have started to spring up in USA which depicts the real economic situation. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have also started to default significantly and commercial reits' prices have fallen.  Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) are worse than 2008 (lehman bros' collapse) now and will explode anytime in USA.  If China investors pull out of USA commercial properties, it will have a huge ripple effect that will cripple USA economy.  This recession will be worse than in 2008.

FED has hiked interest rate in march and 2 more hikes are expected in 2017.

The market reacted positively because of FED dovish statement of gradual pace of tightening in its future actions.  Some were anticipating 4 hikes this year but FED only wanted 3 hikes instead which was a relief for the market.  Furthermore, there may be some headwinds which will affect the economy like Trump's policies, North Korea, EU, etc.  Therefore, FED is having a wait-and-see attitude and will play by ear to determine its interest rate policy.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

More financial experts are predicting a correction or crash for Dow Jones!

One said dow jones would drop 2,000 and another said dow jones would fall to 14,800 level.  Look like the clairvoyants are in synchronization for once.  They had a common consensus on the direction or trajectory of dow jones but not on the magnitude of the fall.

Singapore stock calls for 15 March 2017

Swiber defaults on its bond for 20 March 2017.

If swiber cannot even pay for this bond coupon, we can expect swiber to default on its DBS loan too.  Look like DBS has more to write down for Swiber.

MAS warning: Do not trade in binary options

Only trade in those derivatives by brokerages registered with MAS in Singapore.  Skip those who are registered in overseas no matter how low is the brokerage fee.

Huat ah! Great news for Singapore!

I hope that our government won't revise down the GDP growth forecast in the next quarter.  I rather have no hope than to have a false hope.

UFO landed in China.

No wonder China's technology is getting more and more high-tech.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 14 March 2017

Chile has invited China to join TPP.

Without USA, Japan will be the biggest economy in TPP and this gives Japan a lot of bargaining power.  However, Chile has invited China to join TPP which will make China the largest economy in TPP and assume the leadership position.

If Japan makes things difficult for China to join TPP, China will not join TPP and focus on RCEP since it is leading RCEP.

Let's see how this will pan out.

Monday, March 13, 2017

China has hinted that it will continue to cut down its foreign reserves.

China will be selling more USD down the road.

China citizens are boycotting South Korea.

China cruise passengers refused to disembark in South Korea.  Anti-sentiment has spread across Chinese citizens and they're not afraid to show it publicly.

Singapore stock calls for 13 March 2017

It's getting harder to save Ezra.

DBS will be hurt more than OCBC when Ezra goes bankrupt.  DBS has not factored in the reality of Ezra's bankruptcy.

Trade war between 2 titans (China & USA) is never good.

USA knows it won't win the trade war against China.  Therefore, it is trying all avenues and prodding all weaknesses in China.

USA steel industry couldn't handle competition, so it tried to accuse China of stealing trade secrets with fabricated facts which the USA government always did especially for Iraq war (no weapon of mass destruction found until today).  After realising that this won't work, the USA steel industry withdrew its allegation and move on to anti-trust allegation.

If China did steal trade secrets from USA steel industry, USA won't back down at all.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

What can Singapore learn from South Korea?

It is an extremely difficult and delicate balance to saunter the relationships between USA and China especially when these 2 titans are at odds with each other.  Let’s look at the horrendous outcome for South Korea as our learning lesson for the future.

South Korea tried to improve its economy by getting cozy with China with the intention to get favourable FTA from China but this economic motive angered USA especially when President Park visited China.  In return, USA demanded South Korea to install THAAD to contain China in the name of self-defence against North Korea.  South Korea was able to resist the USA pressure initially but cowered in because USA managed to get a handle on South Korea.  In the end, South Korea was forced to install THAAD to pacify USA.  However, the THAAD installation made China very furious and China retaliated with its economic prowess in staggered stages instead of full force with the hope of dissuading South Korea.  Thereafter, South Korea president ended up being impeached.

The lesson learnt is we cannot follow South Korea’s footstep to get economic benefit from China and yet help USA to contain China.  Nobody likes a snitch or a double-headed snake.  China has shown the world blatantly that it won’t allow itself to be treated like that either.

China has deployed its long phased array radar to monitor South Korea.

China existing long phased array radar has a range of 3000km and its newest one is capable of 5500km range.  China has deployed an existing long phased array radar with 3000km to monitor SK and Japan.

Picture of phased array radar

This kind of radar is capable of tracking multiple objects as small as a golf ball and is also able to jam other radar.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

China new shipping routes will bypass Singapore.

China shippers won't be using Singapore as a transition hub even before the operation of Malacca new port.  No wonder our port handling volume is declining.

Baltic dry index - 1086

Today, Friday, March 10 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 22 points, reaching 1086 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.


Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

US rig count - 768

The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 12 this week to 768.
A year ago, 480 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 617 rigs sought oil and 151 explored for natural gas this week.
Louisiana increased by five rigs, Colorado and Oklahoma each were up three, Ohio and Wyoming rose by two and California gained one.
Alaska declined by three and New Mexico dropped one.
Arkansas, Kansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, March 10, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 10 March 2017

China stealth fighter J20 is officially in service now.

A big thank to USA for stirring troubles in South China Sea, China has to defend itself by expediting the developments of its airplanes.  J20 is in service now!

South Korean President has been impeached!

She has to leave the office immediately as the court has decided to impeach her.  The deployment of THAAD defence system permanently in South Korea will rest on the next president.

ECB is reducing bond purchases.

ECB is reducing bond purchases to contain inflation.  In a nutshell, revising QE will increase interest rate.

EU's interest rate will increase, so will USA's interest rate.  The high interest rate environment is coming.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Singapore stock calls for 8 March 2017

Building structure on mars erased by NASA. Why?

NASA cannot allow earthlings to know that we're not alone as this will destroy our social fabric especially our religions.  Therefore, when NASA had spotted something unusual, it would erase it.

South Korea will enter economic downturn in 2017 - Part 4

Lotte has about USD$8.5b investments in China and Lotte is expected to suffer a big chunk of loss in China.  The next to fall will be Samsung as China citizens are boycotting South Korean products.

Furthermore, Foxconn and TSMC are trying to decimate Samsung by combining efforts to buy Toshiba's nand flash business.  Once nand flash business falls into the hands of TSMC & Foxconn, Samsung business will be greatly affected as Apple will no longer use Samsung as its supplier because Apple views Samsung as a competitor.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Israel! Please stop your aggression!

After getting a UN's censure on Israel, USA had switched side finally.

Singapore stock calls for 7 March 2017

Australia doesn't want to get involved in South China Sea patrol. Why?

The real reason is that Australia also ignored PCA ruling in favour of East Timor and didn't recognise PCA jurisdiction.  Therefore, it's improper for Australia to continue to support PCA ruling in South China Sea or it would face a backlash.

North Korea fired 4 missiles during US-SK joint military exercise.

The US and South Korea started its massive joint military exercise involving 300,000 personnel and latest radars such as X-band and THAAD.  However, North Korea fired 4 missiles during the joint exercise as a sign of protest.  The NK missiles revealed critical flaws in the radars as they were not able to detect the types of NK missiles.  This put to questions about the effectiveness of THAAD defence system because it couldn't detect the types of missiles fired.

When you cannot detect the types of missiles, you cannot intercept them effectively especially for multiple-head missiles because the multiple-head missiles can contain real and dummy warheads.

Monday, March 6, 2017

Trade war between South Korea and China has started!

The trade war is due to the stupid THAAD defence system which is ineffective against low-altitude rockets.  It is no joke when 1.4b people rallied against South Korea.

Kudos to China for containing its defence budget.

China's defence budget: USD$151b.
USA's defence budget: USD$590b.

See who is the threat to the world?

Trump is busy bickering with Obama.

How will he have the time and effort to focus on the economy?

Singapore stock calls for 6 March 2017

USA may have sub-prime again if Chinese investors exited US market.

There'll be an oversupply of housing and this will crash the housing market when Chinese investors exited US market.  However, Asia will benefit out of this turmoil.

Sunday, March 5, 2017

China has cut GDP growth for 2017. How will it impact the world?

IMF forecasts world GDP to be 3.1% for 2017 and China alone will contribute 39% of that 3.1% whereas USA will only contribute less than 10%.  Therefore, any decline in China GDP will affect the world more than USA.

Qualitative vs Quantitative analysis? Which is more important?

Quantitative analysis is about analyzing the facts and figures from the financial statements to derive a fair value on the company stock whereas qualitative analysis is about analyzing the business model and non-arithmetic aspects of the company and its industry to assess the feasibility and sustainability of the company.

Many financial analysts focus on quantitative analysis and neglect the qualitative aspects which often result in misjudgments.

For example, financial analysts like to tout shipping trusts to retail investors as value investment instruments because of their constant distribution yields that are akin to bond yields or fixed deposits.  They always use quantitative analyses to justify for buying shipping trusts due to the long-term chartered contracts (7-10 years) and high distribution yields of 5-7%.

However, if we use qualitative analysis on shipping trusts, we will discover that shipping trusts cannot withstand economic downturns and recessions.  The business model of shipping trusts is based on ship acquisitions to secure ever rising chartering rates to maintain the high distribution yields.  The acquisition limit is usually restricted by its loan-to-value ratio rule that is around 70%.  In a nutshell, the bank will only loan up to 70% of the ship value.  Although shipping trusts usually require their customers to lock in long-term chartering contracts of between 7-10 years, the customers won’t honour these contracts during economic downturns or recessions because many of these customers cannot survive such hardships.  When the customers start to breach these long-term contracts, shipping trusts are left with an oversupply of ships that are berthing and doing nothing.  Then, the shipping trusts will be forced to sell the idling ships at lower rates and these ship values will decline significantly.  Banks are usually cognizant of the latest developments in the shipping industry and will demand the shipping trusts to top up the differences in the fallen ship values.  Conversely, some banks will even recall the ship loans to cut down their risk exposures to the shipping industry.  All these events will start a vicious cycle in the shipping industry, which will lead to tremendous fall in shipping trusts’ prices and distribution yields.  However, many financial analysts will omit these cold hard facts and information to the retail investors by not doing a proper qualitative analysis.

Therefore, you better think twice when you read analysts’ reports without proper qualitative analyses.