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Sunday, April 30, 2023

Latest US economic statistics for the 4th week of April 2023.

All the recent US economic statistics are pointing to an impending recession.  Why? Let's take a look and do a brief analysis.

US Leading economic indicator (LEI): It has been trending down.

The US LEI has been giving out a recession signal since 2022.

US recession probability: It has been rising. What's the validity of this probability?

The truck tonnage index corroborates the rising recession probability and the declining LEI because it trucking tonnages have been declining.  This means the main street demand is falling as consumers are cutting back on their spendings.

Why are US consumers cutting back their spendings?  Let's take a look at the PCE inflation index.

PCE index: 4.9%
Core PCE index: 4.6%
Both the PCE and Core PCE indexes have stayed above 4% for a long time and the US consumers are affected by the sky-high inflation because their savings have been depleted.

The latest GDP figure, being a lagging indicator, has started to reflect the reality of the main street activities.

Q1 GDP growth: 1.1%
The Q1 GDP growth of 1.1% was being supported by consumption but it was the peak already because consumers' savings were depleted by the high inflation.  The US consumption will start to fall in Q2.

Let's break the GDP growth down and we can see the true reality.

GDP growth = G + I + C + Net export (X-M)
GDP growth = 0.81 + (-2.34) + 2.48 + 0.11 = 1.06% (rounded up to 1.1%)

As we could see from the breakdown, the investment (-2.34) dropped significantly because of a sharp drop in business inventories.  The consumption (+2.48) was holding up the GDP growth but it had reached its peak and was no longer sustainable.  The US government spending (0.81) won't be able to increase much further in Q2 because of its debt ceiling.  If the US can't increase its net export, the Q2 GDP figure won't be better than Q1.

Baltic dry index - 1576

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 755

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Saturday, April 29, 2023

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

01/31/22

Kim Eng

Mapletree Logistics

1.69

2.35

Buy

DDM

01/31/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.69

2.08

Buy


01/31/22

Jefferies

Mapletree Logistics

1.69

1.95

Buy


02/08/22

OCBC

Mapletree Logistics

1.7

2.05

Buy


03/18/22

DBS Vickers

Mapletree Logistics

1.82

2.35

Buy


03/18/22

Citi Research

Mapletree Logistics

1.82

2

Buy


04/29/22

CIMB

Mapletree Logistics

1.78

2.1

Add

DDM

05/02/22

DBS Vickers

Mapletree Logistics

1.79

2.05

Buy


05/02/22

Kim Eng

Mapletree Logistics

1.79

2.25

Buy


05/04/22

OCBC

Mapletree Logistics

1.79

2

Buy


05/04/22

Jefferies

Mapletree Logistics

1.79

2

Buy


05/24/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.61

2.23

Buy

DDM

06/29/22

Lim & Tan

Mapletree Logistics

1.7

2

Accumulate on weakness


07/01/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.68

2.08

Buy

DDM

07/22/22

CIMB

Mapletree Logistics

1.71

2.05

Add

DDM

07/22/22

Lim & Tan

Mapletree Logistics

1.71

1.96

Accumulate


07/25/22

Kim Eng

Mapletree Logistics

1.74

2.15

Buy


07/25/22

OCBC

Mapletree Logistics

1.74

1.92

No rating


09/02/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.67

2.08

Buy

DDM

09/20/22

Citi Research

Mapletree Logistics

1.71

1.75

Hold


09/27/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.6

1.94

Buy


10/03/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.56

1.94

Buy


10/07/22

Kim Eng

Mapletree Logistics

1.6

2.15

Buy

DDM

10/26/22

DBS Vickers

Mapletree Logistics

1.46

1.8

Buy

DCF

10/27/22

Citi Research

Mapletree Logistics

1.5

1.59

Hold

DDM

10/31/22

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.52

1.87

Buy

DDM

11/28/22

CLSA

Mapletree Logistics

1.58

1.85

Buy

Cut from $2.06

11/28/22

OCBC

Mapletree Logistics

1.58

1.68

Buy


01/03/23

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.59

1.87

Buy

DDM

01/09/23

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.6

1.99

Buy

DDM

01/16/23

Lim & Tan

Mapletree Logistics

1.6

0

Hold


01/20/23

DBS Vickers

Mapletree Logistics

1.61

1.8

Buy


01/30/23

OCBC

Mapletree Logistics

1.74

1.71

Buy


01/30/23

Citi Research

Mapletree Logistics

1.74

1.59

Hold


03/14/23

Kim Eng

Mapletree Logistics

1.59

1.6

Hold


03/15/23

CIMB

Mapletree Logistics

1.65

1.84

Add

DDM

03/31/23

CIMB

Mapletree Logistics

1.7

1.88

Add

DDM

03/31/23

Kim Eng

Mapletree Logistics

1.7

1.8

Buy


04/04/23

UOB Kay Hian

Mapletree Logistics

1.75

1.99

Buy