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Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Clearbridge - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/01/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.142 0.28 Buy DCF

City Developments - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Lim & Tan City Developments 7.94 0 Buy
01/17/19 CIMB City Developments 8.85 10.65 Add RNAV (35% discount)
02/11/19 Jefferies City Developments 9.16 12 Buy
02/22/19 phillip City Developments 9.54 11.82 Accumulate RNAV (30% discount)
02/22/19 OCBC City Developments 9.54 10.68 Buy
02/22/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 9.54 9.2 Neutral RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19 DBS Vickers City Developments 9.54 9.5 Hold RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19 CIMB City Developments 9.54 10.66 Add
03/21/19 Lim & Tan City Developments 9.02 0 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB City Developments 8.87 10.66 Add
04/04/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 9.31 9.2 Neutral
04/17/19 OCBC City Developments 9.32 10.68 Buy

Chip Eng Seng - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.705 0.75 Hold

Stock calls for 30 April 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/30/19 Kim Eng A-Reit 3.01 3.2 Buy DDM
04/30/19 OCBC A-Reit 3.01 2.74 Hold
04/30/19 DMG & Partners A-Reit 3.01 2.9 Neutral DDM
04/30/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.69 2.88 Add DCF, PER18.1x FY20
04/30/19 Macquarie DBS 28.4 27 Neutral
04/30/19 phillip DBS 28.4 29 Accumulate GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19 OCBC DBS 28.4 29.18 Hold Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19 CIMB DBS 28.4 30 Add GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19 DMG & Partners DBS 28.4 30.8 Buy PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19 Lim & Tan DBS 28.4 30 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.2 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.24 0.22 Hold
04/30/19 DBS Vickers Hutchison Port 0.24 0.26 Hold
04/30/19 DBS Vickers Ifast Corp 1.12 1.05 Hold DDM
04/30/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.88 0.97 Buy DDM
04/30/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.47 1.38 Hold
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.07 1.02 Neutral
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.23 Buy DCF & PER21x
04/30/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.04 1.1 Hold PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.24 Buy DCF
04/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhill 0.755 0.9 Buy DDM

Will the US Fed cut the interest rate in May 2019?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-may-end-seeing-1995-190000337.html

Some people are hoping and predicting a fed rate cut in May 2019 but I don't share the same sentiment as them because the EFFR has been rising to 2.44% now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

When the EFFR(2.44%) is greater than IOER(2.4%), it becomes a monetary tightening situation because the excess funds are moving into EFFR which are usually used to invest in treasuries.  Therefore, there is lesser money available in commercial markets like mortgage and commercial loans.  This is the rationale behind the rise in USD as the money supply is shrinking.

If the US Fed were to cut the interest rate, it would cause the USD to depreciate and that would contradict the rise in EFFR which was causing the rise in USD.  By cutting the rate now will send a bewildering signal to the market and also highlighting the contradictory stances between the US Fed and Trump.  This will also send a signal that Trump has intervened in the independent Fed again which is bad for the US economy.

Monday, April 29, 2019

Canada is just plain stupid.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/canadian-farm-exports-run-into-chinese-wall-amid-diplomatic-dispute-11487824

When China buys more from the US, it has to cut back from other countries especially from unfriendly ones like Canada.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/many-countries-are-fearful-of-upcoming.html

We've stated this in our previous post above.


China Sunsine - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip China Sunsine 1.2 1.68 Buy
03/04/19 phillip China Sunsine 1.26 1.55 Buy FCFE

China Everbright - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/21/19 DBS Vickers China Everbright 0.345 0.475 Buy PER15x FY19
02/21/19 DBS Vickers China Everbright 0.35 0.49 Buy
02/25/19 phillip China Everbright 0.355 0.48 Buy PER8.9x FY19

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.37 1.5 Neutral
03/01/19 DBS Vickers China Aviation Oil 1.37 1.85 Buy PER12x FY19
03/01/19 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.37 1.25 Hold PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1
03/05/19 phillip China Aviation Oil 1.3 1.67 Buy PER11.5x FY19
03/27/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.27 1.6 Buy DCF, PER10x, PB1.2x, Ev/Ebitda6.5x
04/02/19 CIMB China Aviation Oil 1.38 1.7 Add PER11x FY20
04/26/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.43 1.6 Buy
04/29/19 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.39 1.25 Hold PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1

Stock calls for 29 April 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.27 1.4 Buy DDM
04/29/19 UOB Kay Hian China Aviation Oil 1.39 1.25 Hold PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1
04/29/19 Lim & Tan DBS 27.41 0 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.71 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.8 Buy
04/29/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.4 Hold
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.6 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.48 Hold
04/29/19 phillip SGX 7.4 8.09 Accumulate PER21.4x
04/29/19 CIMB SGX 7.4 7.9 Add
04/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.04 1.11 Hold
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy PER5x FY19
04/29/19 OCBC Starhill 0.75 0.8 Buy
04/29/19 DMG & Partners Starhill 0.75 0.78 Buy DDM
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.75 0.8 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Starhill 0.75 0.77 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Starhill 0.75 0.7 Hold
04/29/19 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.51 0.62 Buy DCF
04/29/19 CIMB Venture 17.52 17.88 Hold PER12.5x
04/29/19 Kim Eng Venture 17.52 19.74 Hold Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19

The US economy is going downhill despite the good GDP number.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rpt-column-u-economy-loses-000000823.html

Don't be fooled by the headline number because the demon is hidden in the details.

Our previous analysis of the PMI had already shown that the US economy was slowing down.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Local consumption makes up about 70% of US GDP and the latest GDP number is showing that consumer spending is slowing down rapidly.  The sharp fall in import is also raising some concerns and this is also reflected in the previous PMI number.

It looks like the US must end the US-China trade war soon or the bad economic growth will surface in the GDP headline number.

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Baltic dry index - 889

Today, Friday, April 26 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 20 points, reaching 889 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
==================
Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 991

The rig count in the Permian Basin was down by three this week, the latest count Friday by Baker Hughes shows, with 460 rigs active in the region. A year ago, 452 rigs were active in the region.
Nationally, the oil and gas rig count is down 21 from last week at 991 rigs. A year ago, 1021 rigs were active. The count shows that 805 rigs sought oil, down twenty from the previous week, and 186 explored for natural gas, down one from the previous week.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.
==========================
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, April 26, 2019

Centurion - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.405 0.41 Neutral DCF
03/06/19 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.425 0.41 Neutral DCF

CEI - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/13/19 CIMB CEI 0.945 0.97 Hold PER10x FY20

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.8 Buy DDM
01/02/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.63 Add
01/17/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
01/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.83 Buy
01/31/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.64 Add DDM
01/31/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy DDM
01/31/19 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.56 Hold
01/31/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.85 Buy DCF
02/11/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Add
02/28/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.64 1.8 Add
04/04/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.85 Buy
04/09/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.67 1.8 Buy

Stock calls for 26 April 2016

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/26/19 CIMB AEM 1.16 1.4 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Best World 1.62 0 Cease Coverage Suspension
04/26/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
04/26/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.21 Neutral DDM
04/26/19 CIMB Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.39 Hold DDM
04/26/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.51 1.5 Hold
04/26/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.43 1.6 Buy
04/26/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.67 Hold
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.7 Buy
04/26/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.37 2.31 Neutral DDM
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate
04/26/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.215 0.3 Buy
04/26/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.8 0 Buy
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.94 Buy DDM
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.865 0.92 Buy
04/26/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy
04/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Memtech 0.96 1.33 Buy
04/26/19 phillip Penguin 0.45 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
04/26/19 OCBC SGX 7.26 7.6 Hold PER21x FY20
04/26/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19 Kim Eng SGX 7.26 8.79 Buy PER23x FY19
04/26/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.89 4.15 Buy
04/26/19 OCBC Venture 19.29 20.89 Buy PER15x FY19/20
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Venture 19.29 19 Neutral
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Venture 19.29 21.7 Buy PER15.8x FY19

What's happening to the USD now? Why is it rising again?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usd-is-likely-to-depreciate-soon-why.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/usa-is-gearing-up-for-usd-depreciation.html

The USD was supposed to be depreciating as Trump wanted it to be lower.  The USD did depreciate for a short while before rebounding again.  What the hell was going on?  Well, the US FED is causing the USD to appreciate with its rising rates.  Therefore, it looks like the FED and Trump are at loggerheads now.

The USD index is around 98 now compared to below 96 in March 2019.

The USD value is affected by interest rates.  The US Fed manages the US economy by setting an interest rate bandwidth which is currently at 2.25-2.5%.

There are 4 interest rates that we need to familiarize ourselves with:
Interest on required reserves (iorr) : 2.4% now (Max limit is 2.5% and this sets the upper bandwidth)

The bank required capital ratio fund has to be deposited with the Fed which will yield a FED interest rate of 2.4%.

Effective federal funds rate (effr): 2.44% now (This has been rising in April 2019).

The US bank has to pay 2.44% interest rate to the Fed when it wants to borrow money.  The Fed has been raising this interest rate in April 2019 which is signifying a reluctance to flood the monetary system with cheap money.  This is the proximate cause of the recent USD appreciation because the Fed is sending a subtle message which is the exact opposite of Trump's intention.

Interest rate on excess reserves (ioer) : 2.4% now (This is what the Fed will pay when the US bank deposits its excess cash with the Fed).


Overnight reverse repurchase rate (on rrp) : 2.25% now (This is basically a 1-day sell and buy-back scheme conducted by the Fed and this sets the lower bandwidth).  In short, this is the Fed 1-day IOU and the Fed pays 2.25% interest rate.

As we can see, there is a premium difference between the effr (2.44%) and ioer (2.4%).  This premium difference is depicting a monetary tightening condition which also helps to explain the USD appreciation.

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 3

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-slashes-forecasts-amid-decline-204616825.html

https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/apr/23/texas-instruments-revenue-profit-beat-estimates-shares-rise/

The semiconductor titans are reporting weaker sales forecasts due to poor China demand.  Therefore, 2019 won't be a bumper year for the semiconductor industry.  However, Micron Tech is still being extremely optimistic and fudging its numbers when it has more than 50% China sales.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-stock-rallies-second-half-2019-recovery/

We've stated the global semiconductor slowdown in October 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Thursday, April 25, 2019

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.42 Hold
02/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.65 Buy DCF
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.39 1.66 Accumulate
03/21/19 Amfrasers CapitaRetail China 1.52 1.61 Buy DDM
04/03/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.57 1.65 Buy

Capitamall Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/22/19 CIMB Capitamall Trust 2.26 2.29 Hold DDM
01/23/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.27 2.12 Hold
01/24/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.09 Neutral DDM, PB1.06x FY19
01/24/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.25 Hold DDM
01/24/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.25 Hold
01/24/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.44 Buy
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.02 Hold Buy @ $1.84
02/15/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.38 2.09 Neutral
02/28/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.42 2.25 Hold
03/14/19 DMG & Partners Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.2 Neutral DDM
04/04/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.41 2.4 Hold
04/24/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.32 2.25 Hold
04/25/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.55 Buy
04/25/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.32 Hold

Capitaland - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Capitaland 3.11 4 Buy
01/03/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.07 3.96 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
01/07/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.06 3.55 Add RNAV (35% discount)
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.27 3.62 Buy
01/15/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.27 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
02/20/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.39 0 Buy
02/21/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.43 3.98 Buy RNAV
02/21/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.43 4 Accumulate PB0.75x FY19
02/21/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.43 3.56 Add RNAV (35% discount)
02/21/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.43 3.62 Buy
03/18/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.44 3.98 Buy
03/21/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.47 0 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.44 3.56 Add
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitaland 3.65 4.4 Buy
04/02/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.69 3.9 Outperform RNAV
04/02/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.69 3.98 Buy

Stock calls for 25 April 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/25/19 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.42 1.5 Buy
04/25/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.42 1.5 Buy
04/25/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.55 Buy
04/25/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.32 Hold
04/25/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.51 0.6 Add DDM
04/25/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.51 0.565 Buy
04/25/19 DMG & Partners Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.19 Neutral DDM
04/25/19 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.36 2.61 Buy DDM
04/25/19 CIMB Keppel Reit 1.23 1.34 Add DDM
04/25/19 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 0.87 0 Hold
04/25/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 1.89 2 Buy
04/25/19 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.9 4.7 Buy EV/Invested capital basis
04/25/19 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 3.9 4.1 Buy
04/25/19 Kim Eng ST Engineering 3.9 4.3 Buy DCF
04/25/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.89 1.83 Hold DDM

SGX is losing its IPO shine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/thailand-set-to-be-southeast-asia-s-hottest-ipo-market-with-us-11476512

Vietnam overtook SGX last year.

Look like Thailand will overtake SGX this year too.  Sigh!  SGX is losing its shine under the helm of an ex-investment banker.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/sgx-has-lost-its-ipo-crown-jewel-status.html


Wednesday, April 24, 2019

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.75 1.9 Accumulate
01/14/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.82 2.11 Buy DDM
01/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.83 1.68 Hold
01/25/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.85 2.16 Buy DDM
01/25/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.85 1.86 Neutral DDM
01/25/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.85 2 Buy DCF
01/25/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.85 0 Hold
01/28/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.83 Hold
01/28/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.94 Add
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.86 1.93 Accumulate
03/18/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.98 1.86 Neutral
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.92 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.93 Neutral DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.86 Neutral DDM
04/22/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.88 Hold
04/22/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.03 Add DDM
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF
04/22/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.93 0 Hold

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Neutral DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Hold DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.75 0.76 Hold
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.75 0.81 Buy DDM
01/28/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.75 0.74 Hold
01/28/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.75 0.85 Buy
02/15/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.71 0.75 Neutral
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.72 0.81 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.72 0.7 Hold