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Monday, October 31, 2022

Recent economic updates: EU and US

Let's take a look at the recent economic statistics.

The EU PMI is still in a contractionary zone (below 50).

Due to the contractionary PMI, EU stocks are expected to decline in 2022.

The US Q3 GDP growth was 2.6% but the true economic conditions underlying the headline growth were bleak.  Why?

The Q3 GDP growth was propped up by net exports which contributed 2.77% to the overall growth.  This meant that the other 3 GDP factors (Government spending, Investment and consumption) contributed to a net growth of -0.17%.

GDP Growth = (G+I+C)+Net exports

2.6% = (-0.17) + 2.77


Thus, 3/4 of the economists projected an impending US recession in the foreseeable future.

As the US is still unable to contain its sky-high inflation, it will continue to raise its Fed rates.  The Fed terminal rate is projected to be at 5% in 2023 compared to the current rate of 3-3.25%.

Since the Fed rates will continue to climb, the US mortgage rates will also rise accordingly.  The recent 30-year mortgage rate had already breached the 7% mark.


Furthermore, the Fed will reduce its balance sheet by a few trillion which is considered an insidious rate hike.

Thus, the US outlook is indeed very bleak.

Saturday, October 29, 2022

MS Holdings - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

10/03/22

Lim & Tan

MS Holdings

0.06

0

Reject offer

Takeover price $0.07

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

06/07/21

UOB Kay Hian

MM2 Asia

0.068

0.095

Buy

Sum of parts

08/31/21

DBS Vickers

MM2 Asia

0.057

0.067

Buy

Sum of parts, PER10x FY22

02/14/22

UOB Kay Hian

MM2 Asia

0.05

0.115

Buy

Sum of parts

05/31/22

Lim & Tan

MM2 Asia

0.057

0.12

Buy


06/01/22

DBS Vickers

MM2 Asia

0.056

0.06

Hold

Sum of parts

06/10/22

UOB Kay Hian

MM2 Asia

0.056

0.115

Buy

Sum of parts

07/14/22

Lim & Tan

MM2 Asia

0.053

0.0875

Buy


09/26/22

Lim & Tan

MM2 Asia

0.048

0.09

Buy


10/13/22

UOB Kay Hian

MM2 Asia

0.042

0.098

Buy

Sum of parts

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

09/30/21

Lim & Tan

Micro-Mechanics

3.19

0

High-Risk


11/01/21

Lim & Tan

Micro-Mechanics

3.31

0

Hold


12/07/21

DBS Vickers

Micro-Mechanics

3.17

4.05

Buy


05/04/22

DBS Vickers

Micro-Mechanics

3.17

3.42

Hold

PER27x FY22

09/01/22

DBS Vickers

Micro-Mechanics

3.14

3.42

Hold


10/18/22

DBS Vickers

Micro-Mechanics

2.73

2.97

Hold


Stock calls for 28 october 2022

Date

Analyst

Company

Last

Target

Call

Valuation

10/28/22

DMG & Partners

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit

1.24

1.48

Buy

DDM

10/28/22

Kim Eng

Civmec

0.58

0.94

Buy


10/28/22

DBS Vickers

Far East Hospitality

0.58

0.7

Buy


10/28/22

UOB Kay Hian

First Resources

1.49

1.7

Buy


10/28/22

UOB Kay Hian

Ifast Corp

3.96

3.62

Hold

PER30x FY23

10/28/22

Citi Research

Ifast Corp

3.96

3.8

Sell


10/28/22

CIMB

Ifast Corp

3.96

3.8

Hold


10/28/22

UOB Kay Hian

Keppel Corp

6.65

10.11

Buy


10/28/22

DMG & Partners

Keppel Reit

0.92

1.15

Buy


10/28/22

Citi Research

Keppel Reit

0.92

1.42

Buy


10/28/22

DBS Vickers

Mapletree Commercial

1.92

2.3

Buy


10/28/22

OCBC

Mapletree Industrial

2.25

2.64

Buy


10/28/22

UOB Kay Hian

Sembcorp Marine

0.122

0.156

Buy


10/28/22

CIMB

Sembcorp Marine

0.122

0.19

Add


10/28/22

Citi Research

Sembcorp Marine

0.122

0.08

Sell


10/28/22

OCBC

Sembcorp Marine

0.122

0.12

Hold


10/28/22

DBS Vickers

Sheng Siong

1.61

1.76

Buy


10/28/22

DBS Vickers

Singtel

2.41

3.24

Buy


10/28/22

DBS Vickers

Starhill

0.515

0.68

Buy


10/28/22

DBS Vickers

UOB

26.02

34.2

Buy


10/28/22

OCBC

UOB

26.02

33

Buy


10/28/22

Lim & Tan

UOB

26.02

33.5

Accumulate