Wednesday, September 30, 2020
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 3
Let's continue our S&P 500 technical analysis.
The above chart showed that 2 positive signals had developed prior to the S&P rise. The candlestick had closed above the 5-day SMA and the stochastic had a bullish crossover.
If there were at least 2 positive signals, we could execute a trade with a calculated risk.
What's going to happen next?
A candlestick gap has occurred and this will provide a support level for the S&P. As long as the S&P doesn't fall below the gap, the S&P will continue to rise. Once the gap is breached, we will have to draw new resistance and support levels based on recent high volume days.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/s-500-technical-analysis-part-2.html
Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 9
https://www.ft.com/content/c95e5a72-8322-4cfc-b36a-69e8998aea01
Many banking and financial entities and experts are warning about an impending financial crisis after our first warning. Oxford economics is the latest entity to warn about an impending financial crisis.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html
It seems to me that an unknown force or someone is trying to capitalize on this by disseminating information to exacerbate this crisis.
FinCEN is a highly classified US agency. Therefore, the leakage of sensitive documents is impossible unless someone leaks them deliberately. All the financial documents will be stored in a secured server with encryptions. Even if the documents are stolen, you will still need passwords to access/read them.
Therefore, it looks like someone is trying to create a banking crisis at this moment to facilitate a financial crisis. Let's see how this will pan out.
Monday, September 28, 2020
Saturday, September 26, 2020
The US property market is becoming distorted now! - Part 3
The US existing home sales have hit 6m which is 14 years high in a recessionary environment. Why?
The continuous MBS purchases by the US FED have caused this unusual phenomenon because these MBS purchases encourage the banks to give out more mortgage loans since they can transfer the risks to the US FED by selling the MBS to the US FED.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-us-property-market-is-becoming.html
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 2
Just as expected, the S&P 500 traded between the drawn resistance and support levels.
We need to wait for S&P to breach either side to determine its trend. Thereafter, we will need to draw the new lines again.
Baltic dry index - 1667
Today, Friday, September 25 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 62 points, reaching 1667 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean
Friday, September 25, 2020
Is the US preparing for a 2nd covid lockdown?
The US imports have surged as the retailers are stockpiling in view of the COVID resurgence situation.
In August, we had analyzed that the US was undergoing an inventory reduction phase and we were correct in our analysis.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/how-do-you-interpret-ppi-vs-cpi-and.html
Then, in September, we concluded that the US would end its inventory reduction phase after our PMI analysis.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-us-ism-pmi-improved-again-in-august.html
Thursday, September 24, 2020
S&P 500 Technical analysis.
S&P 500
I was asked about the types of technical analysis that I used. Thus, I would like to give my opinion about technical analysis.
I am a fundamental analyst more than a technical analyst because I've more faith in the fundamental analysis due to my life experiences.
Let me begin the journey with LTCM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
Basically, LTCM was a quantitative fund management firm which was managed by 2 economics Nobel prize laureates and many PHDs in mathematics and computing, and also top technical analysts. The failure of LTCM had shown that technical analysis per se didn't work.
Furthermore, there is not a billionaire now who uses technical analysis. The only billionaire is Warren Buffett who uses fundamental analysis per se and he doesn't believe in technical analysis.
Since I am neither a Nobel laureate nor a PHD in maths or computing, I will stick to do what I do best which is fundamental analysis.
Nevertheless, I will still give my technical analysis for S&P. Technical analysis is something subjective and different people will interpret it differently because different people have different time horizons in investments.
I am a swing or position trader technically instead of a day trader. For explanation purpose, I will use publicly available charting tools to illustrate my technical analysis.
I've drawn 2 lines on the chart. The recent 2 high points line will be the resistance level and the 2 low points line will be the support line. Furthermore, I've added Bollinger bands (2 Std Dev, 95% inclusion), 60-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 100-day SMA, RSI and Stochastics to the chart.
From the chart, it looks like the S&P is at a pivoting point whereby it will either rebound or continue its downtrend. If the S&P breaches the 100-day SMA or my support level (also near 100-day SMA), it will continue to fall further. However, if the S&P closes above my resistance level and/or climbs above the 60-day SMA, then the S&P will continue its recovery. As for the RSI, the recovery will take place after it crosses the 50 level mark on the chart. The stochastics are in oversold territory but are stagnant now. Thus, a stochastics upward crossover will signal a recovery in the S&P.
In conclusion, I will adopt a wait-and-see position for the technical signals to be clearer first.
The technical indicators that I commonly used for my investment time horizon:
5-day SMA
10-day SMA
20-day SMA
60-day SMA
Bollinger bands (2 std dev)
Self-drawn technical lines (resistance and support lines)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Momentum indicator (Stochastics or DMI)
Last but not least, I use candlesticks just to determine their high-low points and also to check for any candlestick's gap. I don't interpret the candlesticks' patterns (doji, hammer, etc) because they were invented based on perishable commodities.
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
The Philippines has disgraced itself in the UN by using a fake international court ruling.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/duterte-gets-rare-praise-raising-103654139.html
The Philippines has disgraced itself in the UN by raising a fake international court ruling (PCA).
We had stated that PCA was not an international court previously.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-truth-about-south-china-sea-ruling.html
The UN also stated that PCA was not under the UN because its international court was ICJ.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/icj-has-declared-that-it-is-not.html
By bringing up a fake international court ruling in the UN, the Philippines only serves to disgrace itself because the true international court is ICJ which is under the UN. By the way, the Philippines has not recovered the US$30m spent for the fake court ruling from the US yet.
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Beautiful sun above Penrose showflat.
Amazing sun aura!
For more information on Penrose, please click the link below.
https://singapore-property-launch.blogspot.com/2020/06/new-property-launch-penrose-condominium.html
Monday, September 21, 2020
Saturday, September 19, 2020
The Greek Ex-Finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, shared his first-hand experience about China.
https://twitter.com/isgoodrum/status/1104848244671016960?lang=en
Yanis Varoufakis, a Greek ex-finance minister and an economics professor, shared his firsthand experience about China.
His speeches contradicted the fearmongering by the US & other European countries.
He also told other countries to stop demonizing China.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/stop-demonising-china-varoufakis-tells-europe/
US F22 and F35 are not stealth anymore!
China can detect and track US stealth fighters and bombers now.
China has just released its Jilin satellite video footage to show that it can track the US F22 in the sky.China can also detect F22 and F35 using its quantum and JY radars.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/f22-and-f35-are-no-longer-stealth.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/07/chinas-quantum-radar-will-make-usa.html
The latest 5G technology is coming!
Many people including my peers still don't understand 5G technology because they only know that it is a lot faster than 4G.
Therefore, I will give you a simple explanation.
5G technology will revolutionize the existing ICT infrastructure. Why?
This is because 5G technology doesn't focus on standalone advanced system-on-chip (Soc) processors that have to be in every device but rather it focuses on the super-fast transmission networks. This technical ideology will change the existing Infocomm technology infrastructure. For example, a standalone device just needs to have a super-fast transmission network and transfer all the processing to a cloud computing network which is run by a supercomputer. In this way, the cloud computing network can do the processing much faster than a standalone device and also can perform very complex tasks that the standalone device cannot do. Furthermore, this will lower the standalone device cost which will benefit consumers since advanced Soc processor is no longer needed in every device.
In the video, Alibaba has created a 5G device that relies on its super cloud computing network. Moreover, this device just needs to connect to a wireless screen and keyboard through BT or Wifi to turn it into a high-powered desktop.
6G technology will be much better than 5G because it will be faster and have a worldwide connection since 6G infrastructure involves micro-satellites. With 6G technology, a person can have a network connection anywhere (in the middle of the ocean or on top of a mountain).
Welcome to the future, guys! Cheers!
Baltic dry index - 1296
Today, Friday, September 18 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 2 points, reaching 1296 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.===========================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
We had already told you that coronavirus was heat tolerant before Hungary research.
The Hungary scientist found that the coronavirus could within high temperate and the summer season couldn't get rid of the virus.
However, we had already announced this in April 2020.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for.html
Friday, September 18, 2020
Thursday, September 17, 2020
Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 8
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/world-banks-ifc-warns-of-asiapacific-financial-crisis-2298424
The world bank has just warned of a financial crisis to corroborate our previous warnings.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/market-distortions-are-precursors-of.html
I would like to offer a technical perspective after my previous qualitative analysis.
The Cape Ratio (Blue Line) is currently between 29-30. This chart is showing that a bear market will proceed to start a downtrend when the Cape Ratio starts to fall from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is at a record high now and the Cape Ratio has just started to fall below its recent peak which presages a bear market.
Both my qualitative and quantitative analyses are showing that the constellation is aligning and this gives consternation of an impending financial crisis.
The US FED is expected to remain on hold again! - Part 2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-signals-rates-stay-near-180000169.html
As expected, the US FED held its rates. However, the US FED decided to hold the rates till 2023 and this would fan the inflation bubble further.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-us-fed-is-expected-to-remain-on.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-us-inflation-is-coming-part-2.html
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