Monday, November 30, 2020
Wow! Someone has projected that the US stock market will crash 40% by April 2021. - Part 2
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/11/wow-someone-has-projected-that-us-stock.html
Since we have a very high viewership for this post which makes it into our top 4 postings in just 3 days, we will comment further regarding this financial crisis prognosis.
In order for this phenomenon of a stock market crash of 40% by April 2020 and decades-long recovery to happen, we've envisaged the following events which must take place first before this prognosis will materialize.
A good vaccine must have 3 requisitions: Effective, Safe and Sustainable.
Currently, many vaccines are in phase 3 trials and are deemed to be effective and safe. The only big unknown is the sustainability of the immunity since it takes time to verify the immunity period. If the immunity period is only about 6 months after vaccination, we will need to take this vaccination on a regular basis especially when we need to travel abroad. This will reduce our travel desire as the side effects of the vaccination can be quite severe, particularly for the 2nd dosage as stated in the phase 3 trial insofar.
The westerners are still unwilling to wear masks and maintain social distancing. This will create another big outbreak after Christmas since the vaccines will most likely be available in Q2 2021. There are many consecutive days of more than 100K Americans getting infected daily now in November 2020 which shows that the virus outbreak is already getting out of control. Joe Biden can only implement the harsh measures as recommended by his adviser to contain the pandemic after 20 Jan 2021. One of the toughest measures will be to lock down the US for about 6 weeks to stamp out the virus.
https://abc7news.com/michael-osterholm-us-lockdown-nationwide-is-under/7896126/
This lockdown will decimate the US economy and cause a big stock market crash, and the recovery will take decades because of the imposition of a new and permanent travel restriction (vaccination requirement). The world will never be the same again after this pandemic.
Friday, November 27, 2020
Wow! Someone has projected that the US stock market will crash 40% by April 2021.
This is the first time that a timeline has been projected for a market crash. A 40% fall by April 2020!
Another highlight from this bold projection is the US stock markets won't recover from this crash for decades.
We had predicted a financial crisis but didn't put a timeline for it to happen. Let's see how this will pan out in the future.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html
Thursday, November 26, 2020
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Monday, November 23, 2020
Sunday, November 22, 2020
Hot news: China's new anti-stealth radars can detect, track and shoot F22 & F35.
Congrats to China for developing such an advanced anti-stealth radar!
The US will lose its air superiority during a US-China war in the South China Sea.
China can use the new radars to detect and track F22 & F35 whenever the US and Japan conduct military exercises in the South China Sea so that China can collect the US military data to prepare itself for a future war.
Saturday, November 21, 2020
Flight alert: Singapore must ban India flights after suspending SG-HK flights for 2 weeks.
Singapore must ban India flights now because India is exporting covid to other countries!
HK has banned India flights till 3 Dec 2020 and SG must do the same or else our import cases will keep rising.
Trump is embarking on a self-preservation journey to exonerate himself.
What did Trump do?
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-strips-us-fed-emergency-132252747.html
Trump is upping his petulant ante to force President-elect Joe to exonerate him from any criminal offence after leaving the President post.
As we can see, Trump is willing to cause more deaths and wreck the US economy just to achieve his personal agenda.
Why is Trump doing these?
Trump understands very well that the US is a dealmaking country and its judiciary system allows the prosecutor to negotiate and strike a deal with the defendant over a conviction. Trump is a dealmaker and he will do whatever it takes to exonerate himself.
Friday, November 20, 2020
China is gradually moving away from USD.
China has been reducing its US treasuries and diversifying its investments.
China is also raising its funds in euros instead of USD.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-set-sell-first-negative-020645206.html
China is also buying more Japanese bonds nowadays.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-triples-Japan-government-bond-purchases2
As China is a big investor, the US will find it harder to raise debts and it will have to increase its interest rates to attract other buyers. However, foreign buyers are also shrinking and the US FED has to pick up the tab.
The US will become like Japan whereby the government will own the majority of its own debts if this phenomenon continues unabated because this is the only way to keep interest rates low to boost economic growth.
OMG! Singapore is trying to divide ASEAN now to show its support for the US. - Part 2
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2020/11/19/pm-lee-all-want-to-work--with-china
PM Lee had given our ex-diplomat a tight slap on his face by stating clearly that excluding China was not workable.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/omg-singapore-is-trying-to-divide-asean.html
Travel alert: HK's fourth wave has started!
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-facing-12-cases-041934229.html
Good luck to those people who had bought the tickets recently to fly to HK by using the SG-HK travel bubble scheme.
It is still unsafe to travel overseas because of the new virus strain that is spreading around the globe.
The HK top infectious disease experts have urged the HK government to take urgent action and this means that the situation is very dire in HK.
Thursday, November 19, 2020
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Singapore Nodx declined 3.1% in October 2020.
Year on year changes (YOY):
October 2020: -3.1%
September 2020: 5.9%
August 2020: 7.7%
July 2020: 6%
June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)
May 2020: -4.6%
April 2020: 9.7%
March 2020: 17.6%
February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)
January 2020: - 3.3%
December 2019: 2.4%
November 2019: - 5.9%
October 2019: - 12.3%
September 2019: -8.1%
August 2019: - 8.9%
July 2019: -11.2%
June 2019: -17.3%
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
Hot news - UK PM is back in quarantine again!
https://www.newser.com/story/298811/boris-johnson-under-quarantine-again.html
The UK PM is back in quarantine again. He is making a false claim about covid, just like Donald Trump. I don't know why western leaders like to make false claims nowadays.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-can-only-last-about-4.html
PM Boris contracted covid about 8 months ago and his immunity would have disappeared completely after so many months. Therefore, he is likely to contract covid again since covid immunity is only temporary.
Monday, November 16, 2020
Italy found covid-19 cases in September 2019, much earlier than thought.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-emerged-italy-earlier-thought-173825186.html
When a country starts to use scientific handling instead of political handling, it will discover the truth about covid.
Italy found covid cases as early as September 2019 but the Wuhan outbreak started in November. Well, Italy didn't report this when the US accused China of creating the virus.
We had already stated that the virus origin was not in China.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-truth-behind-covid-19-outbreak-is.html
Why did China clamp down on Ant's IPO?
I received a request to give my opinion on the cancellation of Ant's IPO. Here it goes!
If you understand Ant's business model and the political background of Alibaba, you would have expected China to take action against Ant. Why?
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/11/china-government-is-targeting-jack-ma.html
Jiang Zemin's caucus has been trying to disrupt China's economy by using the entrepreneurs that are groomed for its own agenda and Alibaba is one of the business groups. Jiang Zemin's grandson is on board Alibaba as one of its biggest shareholders.
Jiang Zemin is still using the same tactic of trying to leave colossal debts in the banking sector so that China's financial industry will be crumbled by the high non-performing loans.
Ant's fundamental business is its microlending business (huabei & jiabei) which provides small loans without collaterals. Under the existing business structure, Ant only puts up 2% of its own cash and outsources 98% of cash loans to China banks without collaterals. This puts the banking industry in an extremely vulnerable position as the high-risk debts put tremendous stresses on the banks. Basically, Jiang Zemin is using the same old trick again through Ant.
Therefore, China has decided to rein in Ant's business by imposing Ant to put up at least 30% of its own cash loans and restrict the loan criteria. The new restrictions will definitely crumple Ant's revenues but they will save the banking industry. Therefore, the future Ant's profitability will be limited and its IPO valuation will have to be reduced significantly.
Saturday, November 14, 2020
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 15
A new candlestick gap had developed for the S&P recently which was providing a very good support level. Although the S&P had closed below the 5-day SMA recently, it didn't close below the candlestick gap. Therefore, the bullish trend is still intact.
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