Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/01/19 | Phillip | APTV | 0.13 | 0.14 | Accumulate | |
05/16/19 | Phillip | APTV | 0.178 | 0.16 | Reduce | EV/Ebitda11x |
08/19/19 | Phillip | APTV | 0.17 | 0.165 | Neutral | EV/Ebitda9.5x |
11/12/19 | Phillip | APTV | 0.171 | 0.165 | Neutral | EV/Ebitda9.5x |
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
APTV - Stock calls
Stock calls for 7 January 2020
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Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/07/20 | DMG & Partners | ESR-Reit | 0.545 | 0.6 | Buy | DDM |
The accuracy of an economic forecast is always questionable.
We need to take economic forecasts by reputable firms with a heavy pinch of salt. Why?
Let's take a look at Singapore's economic growth by ICAEW and Oxford Economics (OE).
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/trade-war-hit-singapore-most-se-asia-recession-2020-possibility
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-gdp-2019-q4-mti-12226222
ICAEW & OE forecast : 1.9% for 2019
Actual GDP growth : 0.7% for 2019
The actual result (0.7%) is only 37% of the forecast (1.9%). This shows that forecasting firms are too optimistic about the economic situation in spite of the ongoing US-China trade war.
Let's take a look at Singapore's economic growth by ICAEW and Oxford Economics (OE).
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/trade-war-hit-singapore-most-se-asia-recession-2020-possibility
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-gdp-2019-q4-mti-12226222
ICAEW & OE forecast : 1.9% for 2019
Actual GDP growth : 0.7% for 2019
The actual result (0.7%) is only 37% of the forecast (1.9%). This shows that forecasting firms are too optimistic about the economic situation in spite of the ongoing US-China trade war.
Monday, January 6, 2020
APAC Realty - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/12/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.5 | 0.72 | Buy | |
02/12/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.5 | 0.56 | Hold | |
03/01/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.57 | 0.72 | Buy | DCF |
03/01/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.57 | 0.7 | Buy | PER12x |
04/04/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.615 | 0.72 | Buy | RNAV |
05/07/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.555 | 0.72 | Buy | |
05/14/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.545 | 0.67 | Buy | DCF |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.525 | 0.58 | Hold | PER10x |
06/03/19 | Phillip | APAC Realty | 0.5 | 0.65 | Buy | DCF |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.5 | 0.67 | Buy | |
06/07/19 | CIMB | APAC Realty | 0.51 | 0.67 | Add | |
07/15/19 | Phillip | APAC Realty | 0.545 | 0.65 | Buy | DCF |
08/06/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.525 | 0.65 | Buy | DCF |
08/06/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.525 | 0.48 | Hold | PER10x FY20 |
08/08/19 | Phillip | APAC Realty | 0.515 | 0.58 | Buy | DCF |
08/13/19 | CIMB | APAC Realty | 0.51 | 0.6 | Add | PER10x FY20 |
09/12/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.495 | 0.65 | Buy | |
11/14/19 | CIMB | APAC Realty | 0.515 | 0.66 | Add | DCF |
11/14/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.515 | 0.6 | Buy | DCF |
11/14/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.515 | 0.46 | Hold | PER12x FY20 |
11/18/19 | Phillip | APAC Realty | 0.5 | 0.55 | Accumulate | DCF |
12/16/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.505 | 0.6 | Buy |
Amara - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Amara | 0.46 | 0.88 | Buy | RNAV (35% discount) |
12/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Amara | 0.45 | 0.88 | Buy |
AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/25/19 | Kim Eng | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.42 | 1.5 | Buy | DDM |
04/25/19 | DBS Vickers | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.42 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.4 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
07/19/19 | DBS Vickers | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.46 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
07/25/19 | Lim & Tan | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.47 | 0 | Hold | |
07/26/19 | Kim Eng | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.47 | 1.6 | Buy | DDM |
11/07/19 | DBS Vickers | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.4 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
Stock calls for 6 January 2020
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/06/20 | DBS Vickers | Delfi | 1 | 1.51 | Buy | |
01/06/20 | DBS Vickers | Koufu | 0.775 | 0.88 | Buy | |
01/06/20 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.3 | 1.32 | Buy | |
01/06/20 | UOB Kay Hian | SPH | 2.15 | 2.3 | Hold | Sum of parts |
01/06/20 | DBS Vickers | Thai Beverage | 0.895 | 1.04 | Buy |
The truth behind the US killing of top Iranian commander.
Why did the US kill the top Iranian commander?
Well, this is the real scoop.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/when-us-says-it-is-deploying-its-troops.html
Firstly, the US plundered the Syrian oil field and profited around US$30m. The US troops based in Iraq went over to Syria to conduct this unscrupulous misdeed.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-rocket-attack-us-military-death-latest-a9262121.html
Then, the Iran-backed fighters fired 30 rockets at the US base in Iraq to take revenge for Syria. Thereafter, Trump ordered the drone attack against the top Iranian general in Iraq in retaliation without informing Iraq.
The US stole Syrian oil and suffered the consequences but couldn't take it down and proceeded to kill the Iranian general. Where is the justice in this?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463
Well, this is the real scoop.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/when-us-says-it-is-deploying-its-troops.html
Firstly, the US plundered the Syrian oil field and profited around US$30m. The US troops based in Iraq went over to Syria to conduct this unscrupulous misdeed.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-rocket-attack-us-military-death-latest-a9262121.html
Then, the Iran-backed fighters fired 30 rockets at the US base in Iraq to take revenge for Syria. Thereafter, Trump ordered the drone attack against the top Iranian general in Iraq in retaliation without informing Iraq.
The US stole Syrian oil and suffered the consequences but couldn't take it down and proceeded to kill the Iranian general. Where is the justice in this?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463
Saturday, January 4, 2020
Baltic dry index - 907
Today, Friday, January 03 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 69 points, reaching 907 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
======================
Related stock: Sembcor Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 2
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html
1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020. This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.
Iran will definitely retaliate but the severity of the retaliation is a big uncertain for the US market.
1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020. This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.
Iran will definitely retaliate but the severity of the retaliation is a big uncertain for the US market.
The US ISM PMI declined again in December 2019 for 5 consecutive months.
The prices rose to
51.7 because the import continued to rise.
The PMI declined to 47.2 which was the lowest level in 2019 and it was
in a contraction mode for 5 consecutive months.
The new order
decreased to 46.8 because of a reduction in new export order (47.3) and this could
indicate that the de-Americanization of China supply chain was affecting the US
PMI. The customers’ inventories (41.1)
and production (43.2) decreased because of a further decline in the new order. This also led to the producers cutting production
and employment (45.1) since they were not optimistic about the future. The continual reduction in manufacturing employment was a grave concern because it was highly correlated to the overall employment in the US.
Therefore, the PMI and its sub-indices
indicated a weakening US economy.
Friday, January 3, 2020
AEM - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/30/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 0.905 | 1.21 | Buy | PB2.9x FY19/20, EV/Ebitda5.2x FY20 |
02/26/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 1.05 | 1.24 | Buy | PB2.8x FY19/20 |
02/26/19 | CIMB | AEM | 1.05 | 1.11 | Hold | PER10x FY20 |
04/26/19 | CIMB | AEM | 1.16 | 1.21 | Hold | PER10x FY20 |
05/09/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 1.05 | 1.4 | Buy | PB3.1x FY19/20 |
06/11/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 0.945 | 1.4 | Buy | PB3.1x FY19/20 |
07/18/19 | CIMB | AEM | 1.04 | 1.23 | Add | PER10x FY20 |
07/29/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 1.22 | 1.4 | Buy | PB3x FY19/20 |
08/14/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 1.09 | 1.4 | Buy | Roe-g/Coe-g |
09/16/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 1.19 | 1.5 | Buy | Roe-g/Coe-g |
10/03/19 | Kim Eng | AEM | 1.12 | 1.5 | Buy | Roe-g/Coe-g, PB3.2x FY19/20 |
10/11/19 | Amfrasers | AEM | 1.16 | 1.34 | Outperform | PER11x FY20 |
10/22/19 | CIMB | AEM | 1.3 | 1.44 | Add | |
11/04/19 | Amfrasers | AEM | 1.53 | 1.8 | Outperform | PER12x FY20 |
11/25/19 | CIMB | AEM | 1.8 | 2.12 | Add | |
11/29/19 | DBS Vickers | AEM | 1.71 | 2.38 | Buy | PER12.1x FY20 |
12/10/19 | DBS Vickers | AEM | 1.91 | 2.38 | Buy | PER12.1x FY20 |
12/31/19 | CIMB | AEM | 1.99 | 2.12 | Add |
Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/15/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.55 | 0.61 | Hold | |
02/19/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.565 | 0.61 | Buy | |
04/04/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.59 | 0.72 | Buy | |
05/31/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.585 | 0.7 | Buy | |
08/16/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.535 | 0.67 | Outperform | DDM |
11/15/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.61 | 0.67 | Outperform | |
12/02/19 | Amfrasers | Accordia Golf Trust | 0.7 | 0.67 | Outperform |
Ascendas Reit (A-Reit) - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 2.57 | 2.9 | Buy | |
01/04/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 2.57 | 2.78 | Accumulate | |
01/17/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 2.74 | 2.95 | Buy | DDM |
01/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | A-Reit | 2.71 | 3.01 | Buy | |
01/31/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 2.72 | 2.88 | Accumulate | DDM, PB1.34x FY19 |
01/31/19 | CIMB | A-Reit | 2.72 | 2.83 | Add | DDM |
01/31/19 | OCBC | A-Reit | 2.72 | 2.64 | Hold | |
01/31/19 | DBS Vickers | A-Reit | 2.72 | 2.95 | Buy | |
02/15/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 2.75 | 2.88 | Accumulate | |
02/28/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 2.81 | 2.95 | Buy | |
03/07/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 2.83 | 2.9 | Neutral | DDM |
03/07/19 | CIMB | A-Reit | 2.83 | 2.83 | Add | |
04/04/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 2.93 | 3.1 | Buy | |
04/30/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 3.01 | 3.2 | Buy | DDM |
04/30/19 | OCBC | A-Reit | 3.01 | 2.74 | Hold | |
04/30/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 3.01 | 2.9 | Neutral | DDM |
05/02/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3 | 2.88 | Neutral | DDM |
05/02/19 | CIMB | A-Reit | 3 | 2.87 | Hold | DDM |
05/02/19 | DBS Vickers | A-Reit | 3 | 3.2 | Buy | DCF |
06/19/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 2.98 | 2.88 | Neutral | |
06/25/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 3.01 | 3.2 | Buy | |
06/27/19 | DBS Vickers | A-Reit | 3.05 | 3.21 | Buy | |
07/03/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 3.13 | 3.3 | Buy | DDM |
07/04/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 3.15 | 2.9 | Neutral | |
07/22/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3.03 | 2.88 | Neutral | |
07/30/19 | DBS Vickers | A-Reit | 3.05 | 3.4 | Buy | DCF |
07/30/19 | OCBC | A-Reit | 3.05 | 2.98 | Hold | |
07/31/19 | UOB Kay Hian | A-Reit | 3.03 | 3.01 | Hold | Buy @ $2.78 |
08/02/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3.04 | 3.31 | Accumulate | DDM |
09/11/19 | UOB Kay Hian | A-Reit | 3.14 | 3.25 | Hold | DDM, Buy @ $2.98 |
09/19/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 3.11 | 3.3 | Buy | |
09/24/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3.12 | 3.31 | Accumulate | |
10/04/19 | Lim & Tan | A-Reit | 3.08 | 0 | Hold | |
10/07/19 | DBS Vickers | A-Reit | 3.08 | 3.4 | Buy | |
10/10/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 3.12 | 3 | Neutral | DDM |
10/11/19 | CIMB | A-Reit | 3.15 | 3.12 | Hold | DDM |
10/18/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3.13 | 3.31 | Accumulate | |
11/04/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 3.17 | 3 | Neutral | DDM |
11/04/19 | OCBC | A-Reit | 3.17 | 3.25 | Hold | |
11/05/19 | UOB Kay Hian | A-Reit | 3.12 | 3.28 | Hold | Buy @ $2.99 |
11/11/19 | UOB Kay Hian | A-Reit | 2.89 | 3.25 | Buy | |
11/21/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 2.91 | 3.35 | Buy | |
11/25/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 2.94 | 3.31 | Accumulate | |
12/03/19 | Kim Eng | A-Reit | 2.97 | 3.35 | Buy | DDM |
12/06/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3.01 | 3.25 | Accumulate | |
12/06/19 | Morgan Stanley | A-Reit | 3.01 | 3.04 | Overweight | |
12/06/19 | Macquarie | A-Reit | 3.01 | 2.7 | Neutral | |
12/10/19 | DMG & Partners | A-Reit | 3.03 | 3 | Neutral | |
12/19/19 | DBS Vickers | A-Reit | 2.92 | 3.4 | Buy |
Stock calls for 3 January 2020
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/03/20 | CIMB | Boustead | 0.76 | 1 | Add | Sum of parts |
01/03/20 | UOB Kay Hian | DBS | 26.11 | 30 | Buy | |
01/03/20 | DBS Vickers | Netlink | 0.94 | 1.04 | Buy | DCF |
01/03/20 | UOB Kay Hian | OCBC | 11.03 | 14.45 | Buy | |
01/03/20 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.4 | 3.6 | Buy | |
01/03/20 | DBS Vickers | Starhub | 1.42 | 1.43 | Buy | EV/Ebitda6x |
01/03/20 | DMG & Partners | Suntec Reit | 1.85 | 2.08 | Buy | DDM |
01/03/20 | Kim Eng | UMS | 1.08 | 1.13 | Buy | PB2.2x FY20 |
Facebook is intervening in Asia politics under the US directives.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/facebook-steps-up-monitoring-for-taiwan-elections
Facebook is setting up election monitoring offices in Taiwan and Singapore to intervene in local elections.
How will Facebook intervene in Asia's local elections?
First, they will set up a "war room" to monitor the election candidates' groups and remove the FB pages to silence the voices of the election candidates online. Facebook will only allow the voices of those favoured candidates to be heard or seen online.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/ast/201912300015.aspx
FB has already removed Taiwan Han's groups because he is pro-China. FB may do the same thing in SG by removing the oppositions' groups.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201912130019.aspx
Facebook is setting up election monitoring offices in Taiwan and Singapore to intervene in local elections.
How will Facebook intervene in Asia's local elections?
First, they will set up a "war room" to monitor the election candidates' groups and remove the FB pages to silence the voices of the election candidates online. Facebook will only allow the voices of those favoured candidates to be heard or seen online.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/ast/201912300015.aspx
FB has already removed Taiwan Han's groups because he is pro-China. FB may do the same thing in SG by removing the oppositions' groups.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201912130019.aspx
The US layoffs hit its highest level while the unemployment rate was at its lowest.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-hit-4-year-high-in-2019-challenger-gray-data-says-190116585.html
The US unemployment rate was at its lowest while the layoffs hit its highest level. How come?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html
The only explanation for this conundrum is that the US employment rate has an error since it is survey-based and is subjected to manipulation (fudging).
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/08/economic-101-dont-let-unemployment-rate.html
The US unemployment rate was at its lowest while the layoffs hit its highest level. How come?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html
The only explanation for this conundrum is that the US employment rate has an error since it is survey-based and is subjected to manipulation (fudging).
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/08/economic-101-dont-let-unemployment-rate.html
Thursday, January 2, 2020
800Super - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/13/19 | Phillip | 800Super | 0.685 | 0 | Cease Coverage | DCF |
06/10/19 | Novus | 800Super | 0.89 | 0.9 | Accept offer | offer $0.90 |
Yongnam - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/04/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.183 | 0.4 | Add | PB0.8x FY19 |
01/07/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.183 | 0.41 | Add | PB0.8x FY19 |
03/01/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.173 | 0.33 | Add | PB0.7x FY19 |
04/05/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.186 | 0.33 | Add | PB0.7x FY19 |
05/17/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.169 | 0.33 | Add | PB0.7x FY19 |
08/15/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.171 | 0.28 | Add |
Yoma - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/12/19 | DBS Vickers | Yoma | 0.345 | 0.4 | Buy | |
04/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Yoma | 0.32 | 0.57 | Buy | Sum of parts (20% discount) |
06/03/19 | DBS Vickers | Yoma | 0.33 | 0.4 | Buy | RNAV (60% discount) |
11/15/19 | DBS Vickers | Yoma | 0.375 | 0.5 | Buy | RNAV (45% discount) |
12/26/19 | DMG & Partners | Yoma | 0.335 | 0.57 | Buy |
Stock calls for 2 January 2020
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/20 | DBS Vickers | Capitaland | 3.75 | 4.5 | Buy | RNAV (18% discount) |
01/02/20 | DBS Vickers | City Developments | 10.95 | 13 | Buy | RNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020 |
01/02/20 | DMG & Partners | SGX | 8.86 | 8.8 | Neutral | PER23x FY21 |
01/02/20 | DBS Vickers | UOL | 8.32 | 9.5 | Buy | RNAV (28% discount), PB0.8x |
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