Stock calls for 9 April 2020.

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/09/20	DBS Vickers	Cromwell Reit (EUR)	0.36	0.59	Buy
04/09/20	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.89	4.95	Neutral	DCF
04/09/20	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.31	1.42	Buy	DCF
04/09/20	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.53	1.39	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.20
04/09/20	CIMB	Sunningdale	0.875	1.09	Add

Temasek is cashing out its investments.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/temaseks-2-week-selling-spree-raises-us-779-million-101403435.html

Our state wealth fund is divesting to conserve cash.

We had stated a few days ago that state wealth funds would be divesting to conserve their cash because of diminishing returns.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-will-companies-do-with-credit.html

Boustead - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/23/19	CIMB	Boustead	0.735	1	Add	Sum of parts
11/25/19	CIMB	Boustead	0.765	1	Add
01/03/20	CIMB	Boustead	0.76	1	Add	Sum of parts
01/16/20	UOB Kay Hian	Boustead	0.78	0.92	Buy	Sum of parts

Best World - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	2.02	2.95	Buy
04/16/19	CLSA	Best World	1.77	1.75	Sell	Up from $1.29
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	1.62	0	Cease Coverage	Suspension

Banyan Tree - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/22/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.535	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19
08/16/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.455	0.51	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19

Stock calls for 8 April 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/08/20	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	1.74	2.12	Hold
04/08/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.38	0.54	Buy	PER12x FY20
04/08/20	Kim Eng	DBS	19.11	21.99	Buy
04/08/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.63	1.85	Buy
04/08/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	8.93	10.32	Buy
04/08/20	CIMB	SPH	1.6	1.57	Hold	Sum of parts
04/08/20	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.6	0	Sell
04/08/20	DBS Vickers	SPH	1.6	1.56	Hold
04/08/20	Kim Eng	UOB	20.15	22.55	Buy
04/08/20	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	0.915	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts

Why am I not interested in REITs and business trusts? - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/a-us-100-billion-reit-rout-pulverises-family-fortunes-across-asia-022303086.html

After we had highlighted the risky REITs and Business Trusts' businesses, Bloomberg published an article to inflict more pain on them.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-am-i-not-interested-in-reits-and.html

REITs and Business Trusts have to defer rental payments to help out the tenants and this will cause them to terminate or reduce their dividend payouts as their cash flows are being affected.

If the tenants close their businesses, the vacancy rates will spike up and the banks will re-evaluate their credit risks which will ensue in loan recalls and top-ups.  Many retailers are defaulting on their rental payments illegally because of covid-19 outbreaks now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/coronavirus-landlords-in-peril-as-retailers-refuse-to-pay-rent

China has more patents than US now!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-china-knocks-u-top-120842062.html

The US had been accusing China of stealing its technologies because the US held the most patents in the world.

However, things have started to change now.  China has already overtaken the US in international patent filings.  Thus, China can start to accuse the US of stealing China's technologies now especially in 5G and quantum technologies.

Yeah!

Is the US preparing for a small scale war now?

The US is trying to recall 1m reservists now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-reserves-coronavirus-battle-235113292.html

The US is also trying to get Americans overseas to return home.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/natural-disasters/490477-pompeo-americans-who-wish-to-return-home-from

These 2 actions are very uncanny in my eyes. Why?

China didn't activate its reservists to handle the virus outbreak but used only its active military personnel.  China also didn't try to get all its Chinese overseas back home as this would pose a high risk of imported cases.

It looks like the US is preparing for a small scale war instead of handling the virus outbreak.  The US always starts a war when it has a homefront problem that it cannot handle.  The homefront problems in the US are the covid-19 outbreak and the low oil price that is hurting its shale oil producers.

Which country will the US attack this time?

Anybody wanna make a guess?

An American doctor told the truth about covid-19 situation in the US.

This American doctor told the truth about covid-19 situation in the US.  The US government knew about the virus outbreak in Dec 2019 but chose to ignore it.  Then, the US government tried to shift the blame to China.

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.28	0.27	Neutral	DCF
08/29/19	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.27	0	Buy
09/10/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.31	0.31	Neutral	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.34	0.31	Neutral
11/07/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.35	0.41	Buy	DCF
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.4	0.44	Buy	DCF
02/17/20	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.39	0.5	Buy	DCF
02/20/20	UOB Kay Hian	Avi-Tech	0.42	0.57	Buy
03/30/20	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.325	0.5	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.305	0.5	Buy

Asian Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/20	Tayrona	Asian Healthcare	0.192	0.305	Overweight	DDM, PER14.5x FY22

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.27	1.4	Buy	DDM
07/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.42	1.55	Buy
10/25/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.55	1.65	Buy	DDM
12/19/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.53	1.65	Buy
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.58	1.65	Buy
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.65	1.85	Buy
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.65	1.85	Buy

Stock calls for 7 April 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.305	0.5	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	2.74	4.2	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.35	0.73	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	ESR-Reit	0.245	0.5	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.199	0.32	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	5.51	7.6	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.665	0.88	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.199	0.36	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	SGX	9.33	9.1	Neutral	PER23x FY21
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.03	4.9	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.4	4.3	Buy

What will the companies do with the credit rating firms’ face-off and their consequences?

Many companies have stopped or reduced their dividend payouts and terminated their share buybacks to conserve cash to avoid credit rating downgrades.

However, these actions will cause their share prices to drop due to the diminishing purchases of their companies’ stocks, as there are no incentives to buy them anymore.  Consequently, this will prompt the state wealth funds to sell the stocks of these companies to conserve their cash for future value purchases or redirect their cash for their own economic developments.

The current financial crisis flowchart is as follow:

Corporate debt -----> Company's credit rating -----> Company share price

First of all, the corporate debt will spark off a financial crisis which will affect the company's credit rating.  Therefore, the company has to conserve cash in case it has to redeem its corporate debt.  The debt redemption will cause the share price to fall as investors want the company to put its cash in a growth sector and not to repay its debt.  A shale oil producer will be an excellent example to depict this.

Many shale oil producers have to raise funds continuously to purchase equipment and chemicals to do oil extractions and these corporate debts are usually repackaged into high yield debts (junk bonds).  When the junk bonds market starts to crumble due to the low oil prices, these shale oil producers will have to terminate their dividends and share buybacks to conserve their cash to avoid credit rating downgrades.  Without these incentives to support the share purchases, their stock prices will start to fall because the investors will bailout.

The US FED has managed to stop this hemorrhage temporarily by declaring to buy any debt including junk bond and this has caused the US FED to accumulate US$5.3T assets insofar.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-programs-expla/explainer-what-the-federal-reserve-has-done-in-the-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN21I1BK