Trump is starting to backtrack on the truce deal with China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-govt-staff-told-treat-033337237.html

Huawei ban will continue to be in effect.

We have just predicted this and Trump is doing it now as he is pressured by the hawkish politicians.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/look-like-trump-will-renege-on-us-china.html

Mahathir is skinning Singapore again.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-blow-singapores-expansion-malaysia-035646777.html

Here we go again!

Mahathir likes to impede SG's economic developments.  He is trying to stop or delay our Tuas Mega Port construction by banning sea sand exports to SG.

We've stated before that a pro-China Malaysia is a threat to SG (Read below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in June 2019.

The PMI prices dropped in June from 53.2 to 47.9 because the US reduced its local raw material purchases (estimated -2.4) and imported more raw materials (+0.6) which were cheaper.

The inventories and supplier's deliveries declined because the manufacturing sector was just producing enough to fulfill the backlog of orders since the new order dropped in June that was caused by a fall in overseas order.  The rises in the employment, production and customers' inventories also reflected the phenomenon to fulfill existing orders instead of new orders.

The local new order (estimated +0.1) denoted that the local consumption was relatively unchanged and couldn't hold up the PMI headline number (51.7, -0.4).  The PMI has been falling for 3 consecutive months already and the 2nd QTR GDP will be much weaker than the 1st QTR GDP.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html

Look like Trump will renege on the US-China truce deal.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-don-apos-t-believe-073039714.html

The hawkish politicians are pressuring Trump to break away from the truce deal and ban Huawei in the US.  They're embarking on a smearing campaign against China and Huawei to force Trump to act.

The US has reneged on international pacts (Paris & Iran) before and won't bat an eyelid from breaking away from the truce.  The US will fabricate intelligence and create lies to serve its own political interests.  This is the characteristic of the American culture and it will never change.

Top Glove - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Kim Eng	Top Glove	1.5	1.53	Hold	Ringgit target $4.60, PER24x CY20
04/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	Top Glove	1.48	1.34	Hold	Ringgit target $4.10, Buy @ $3.70
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Top Glove	1.62	1.59	Hold	Ringgit target $4.85

Tianjin Zhongxin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.915	1.7	Buy	PER13.6x FY19
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.985	1.7	Buy
06/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.885	1.7	Buy

Thai Beverage - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.715	0.85	Buy	Sum of parts
02/13/19	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.72	0.83	Add	Sum of parts
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.72	0.87	Buy
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.815	0.86	Hold	Sum of parts, buy @ $0.76
02/18/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.815	0.92	Buy	Sum of parts
02/18/19	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.815	0.9	Add	Sum of parts
02/18/19	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.815	0.91	Buy
02/19/19	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.82	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Thai Beverage	0.82	0.75	Hold
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.81	0.94	Buy
03/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.805	0.86	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.78
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.92	Buy
05/13/19	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.83	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/13/19	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.94	Add
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.85	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.76
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.92	Buy	Sum of parts
05/13/19	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.88	Hold
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.91	Buy	Sum of parts
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Thai Beverage	0.765	0.75	Hold
05/28/19	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.805	0.86	Hold
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.84	0.92	Buy	Sum of parts, PER23x
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.84	0.91	Buy

Stock calls for 2 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.75	0.81	Neutral
07/02/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.63	1.01	Buy
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	7.29	8.25	Neutral
07/02/19	OCBC	DBS	26.6	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x, PER14.7x
07/02/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.6	1.93	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.59	11.07	Hold
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.51	2.85	Buy
07/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.88
07/02/19	CIMB	Suntec Reit	1.95	2.15	Add	DDM
07/02/19	DBS Vickers	Suntec Reit	1.95	2.2	Buy	DCF
07/02/19	OCBC	UOB	26.61	29.4	Buy	GGM, PB1.3x, PER11.3x

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 5

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/us-china-tech-war-causing-chinese-semiconductor-firms-to-develop-chips.html

We projected the semiconductor outcome in 2018 and the venture capitalist saw it happening in 2019.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Korea-Japan trade war has just begun!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-toughen-restrictions-exports-south-030402201.html

Notwithstanding the US-China trade war, 2 Asian giants, South Korea & Japan, have started another trade war because of the historical feud.

The US won't allow the Korea-Japan trade war to escalate because this will hurt the US strategic alliance in the South China Sea.  The US needs Korea and Japan to work together to contain China military advancement in the South China Sea.

I'm pretty confident that the US will act as a mediator between Korea & Japan to resolve this trade war.

Talkmed - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Talkmed	0.59	0.64	Neutral
02/21/19	DMG & Partners	Talkmed	0.58	0.62	Neutral	DCF
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Talkmed	0.51	0.62	Buy	DCF

Suntec Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.86	1.83	Hold
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	Suntec Reit	1.87	2.12	Buy	DCF
01/24/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.87	1.84	Hold
01/24/19	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.87	1.9	Neutral	DDM
01/24/19	Jefferies	Suntec Reit	1.87	1.85	Hold	Up from $1.80
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Suntec Reit	1.93	2.01	Hold	Buy @ $1.83
01/28/19	CIMB	Suntec Reit	1.93	2.06	Add
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.93	1.9	Neutral
04/02/19	DBS Vickers	Suntec Reit	1.96	2.12	Buy
04/24/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.86	1.84	Hold
04/25/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.89	1.83	Hold	DDM
05/28/19	CIMB	Suntec Reit	1.82	2.06	Add
05/30/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.82	1.99	Hold	Buy @ $1.81
06/20/19	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.92	1.9	Neutral	DDM

Sunpower - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunpower	0.385	0.76	Buy	Sum of parts
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunpower	0.585	0.88	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 1July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/01/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.96	29.46	Buy
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.96	30.5	Buy
07/01/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.235	0.32	Add
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.4	14.62	Buy
07/01/19	Kim Eng	UOB	26.13	28.97	Buy

President Trump is the man behind wall street. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/president-trump-is-man-behind-wall.html

Trump did everything he could to make sure that the trade talk didn't fall out.

He didn't insist on his previous terms (no mention of IP theft, forced technology transfer, change of China laws to accommodate his demands, etc).

He didn't mention HK at all in the trade talk.

He didn't impose new tariffs against China.

Why is Trump getting soft on China?

We have come up with a few reasons for Trump's meekness.

1. The top US business leaders are rallying their demands for "No China tariffs".

2. The 2nd QTR GDP will look bad.

3. Many Americans cannot enjoy Christmas if there are more China tariffs.

4. Farmers are suffering and losing their China market share.

5. Trump's popularity is dropping fast and furious.

Many analysts were dead wrong about Vietnam benefitting from the US-China trade war.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/vietnam-says-committed-to--free-and-fair--trade-after-trump-tariff-threat-11671716

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs against Vietnam.

We differed from many analysts over the view that Vietnam would benefit from the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/do-thailand-and-vietnam-really-benefit.html

We had stated our view in our previous post above.  Smaller nations like Vietnam and Thai do not have the same clout as China to ward off the US tariffs because their economies and military prowess are not in the same league as China.  They will be bullied by the US and they will bend to US demands.  Vietnam is in trouble now.

A trade truce has been reached between the US and China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-xi-talk-trade-economic-233226847.html

Basically, this is just about remaining a status quo since existing tariffs will remain with no new additional tariffs.

However, non-tariffs measures such as restrictions placed on China and the US companies will escalate in the name of national security concerns which may not seem to be trade-related.

Let's see how this will pan out since Trump is not a credible leader and always flip-flop on his agreements.

Baltic dry index - 1354

Today, Friday, June 28 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 1354 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 967

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Sunningdale - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.56	1.3	Hold	PER11x FY19, Buy @ $1.20
03/01/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.56	0	Hold
03/05/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.4	1.38	Reduce	PB0.69x FY19
04/11/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.39	0	Hold
05/07/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.35	0	Hold
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.32	1.22	Hold	PER11x FY20, Buy @ $1.10
05/09/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.32	1.38	Hold	PB0.69x FY19