US rig count - 942

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in July 2019.

The price of a product is affected by raw material and labour costs.  Although the imported raw materials were supposed to be cheaper than local materials, the producers chose to reduce the imported materials and purchase more local materials.  This behaviour might be tariff-related.  However, the reduction in employment had helped to defray the cost and reduced the PMI prices from 47.9 to 45.1.  The upcoming employment data will fall, judging from the PMI employment sub-index number.

The new export and local orders will crumble if Trump imposes the additional tariffs on 1 September since consumer goods are being targeted this time and China has not announced its retaliatory US tariffs.  This July PMI is no longer relevant because of the escalating tariffs from both countries.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-to-impose-additional-tariffs-on.html

In conclusion, the headline PMI figure has been falling for 4 consecutive months already.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in-june.html

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
01/21/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	1.56	Buy
01/21/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	1.5	Hold	DDM
01/21/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	0	Hold
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.5	Neutral
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
04/24/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.5	Neutral	DDM
04/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.58	Buy
04/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.5	Hold	DDM
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.51	1.7	Buy
06/26/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.58	1.69	Buy
06/26/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.58	1.64	Add	DDM
06/27/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.66	1.65	Neutral	DDM
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.68	1.65	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.7	Hold	DCF
07/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.64	1.7	Hold

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.55	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	0	Hold
01/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.5	Buy
01/23/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.21	Neutral	DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.4	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.32	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.35	Add	DDM
02/15/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.24	2.21	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.3	2.55	Buy
03/01/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.5	Buy
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.4	Buy	DCF
03/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.6	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.28	2.19	Neutral
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.38	2.6	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.6	Buy
04/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	0	Buy
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.19	Neutral	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.61	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.31	Neutral	DDM
05/17/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.61	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.25	Neutral
05/17/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.55	Add	DDM
05/21/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.4	2.6	Buy
05/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.41	2.71	Buy
05/24/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.44	2.36	Neutral	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.25	Neutral
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.71	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.61	2.36	Neutral
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.55	2.72	Buy
06/24/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.54	2.85	Buy
06/24/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.54	2.33	Neutral	DDM
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.59	2.6	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.25	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.95	Buy
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.62	2.72	Buy
07/22/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.36	Neutral
07/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.66	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $2.42
07/24/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.8	Buy	DDM
07/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.69	Hold
07/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.79	Add	DDM
07/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	0	Hold
07/26/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.63	2.51	Neutral
07/29/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate	DDM

Fortune Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.8	10.68	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.7	10.76	Buy
03/06/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.8	10.76	Buy
06/21/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	10.66	11.8	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 2 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.04	3.31	Accumulate	DDM
08/02/19	DIR	ART	1.32	1.34	Outperform
08/02/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.32	1.3	Hold
08/02/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
08/02/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.715	0.77	Hold	Sum of parts
08/02/19	Amfrasers	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.68	Outperform
08/02/19	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	7.38	7.99	Hold
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	Hock Lian Seng	0.33	0	Buy on weakness
08/02/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.09	7.93	Buy
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.42	0	Buy on weakness
08/02/19	phillip	SGX	7.78	8.09	Accumulate	PER21x
08/02/19	CIMB	SIA	9.2	10.04	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
08/02/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.78	0.78	Neutral	DDM
08/02/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.28	29.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.24x FY20
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	UOB	26.28	0	Buy on weakness

Trump to impose additional tariffs on US$300B of China goods on 1 September 2019.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-sink-as-us-china-trade-tensions-ramp-back-up-2019-08-01?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

We warned our readers that the US-China trade talk broke down in July.  However, the politicians and media sugar-coated the trade fallout with a "Constructive" talk.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/us-china-trade-talk-broke-down-again-in.html

How did we come to the conclusion that the US-China trade talk broke down?

We always have this belief that the demon is hidden in the details and we look into the timeline of the US-China trade talk.  The US-China trade talk ended in just 4 hours in Shanghai and this was a tell-tale sign that both parties had a big fallout during the meeting because nothing could be settled in just 4 hours.  The US team left shanghai immediately after the fallout meeting and both parties started to accuse each other of flip-flopping thereafter.

However, the media just publicized that the US-China trade talk was constructive.

The US GDP will drop further in Q3 & Q4 after these additional tariffs against China since consumer goods are involved now.

Just look at the impact on the US below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-us-china-trade-war-impacts-on-both_27.html

Russia is sending a strong signal to the USA in South China Sea.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/23/asia-pacific/south-korea-fires-warning-shots-russia-warplanes/#.XUPLmZMzaqA

Russia is telling the US that it will get involved in the South China Sea (SEA) when the US engages in any SEA military confrontation.  This incident has shown a strong military alliance between Russia and China.  Therefore, ASEAN better think twice before calling for a stronger US presence in the SEA because the US will only seek to raise the tensions for its own political interest.

We had stated previously in 2016 that Russia would get involved in the SEA confrontation if any.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/09/russia-supports-china-overtly-to-reject.html

Russia and China are the top 2 powerful countries after the USA and the USA cannot afford to fight with such an alliance.  The US can leave the SEA when it loses but ASEAN cannot.

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.69	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.56	0.69	Buy

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.27	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
07/26/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.31	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.56	1.6	Hold
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.72	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.69	2.1	Buy
03/01/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.71	2.03	Buy	PER17x
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.72	1.6	Neutral	PER13x FY19
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.72	1.97	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.7	2.12	Add
03/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.69	1.85	Hold	Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.79	2.12	Add
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.85	1.85	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.82	2.03	Buy	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.79	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.7	1.53	Neutral	PER13x FY20
05/16/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.7	1.93	Buy	PER17x
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.7	1.95	Buy	DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.7	1.7	Hold	Buy @ $1.50
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.56	1.53	Neutral
07/02/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.6	1.93	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.55	1.82	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 1 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.21	Buy	DDM
08/01/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.59	1.45	Hold
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.59	1.8	Buy
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.68	0.7	Hold	DCF
08/01/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.51	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.06	3.25	Buy
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	3.06	3.35	Buy
08/01/19	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.92	8.1	Neutral	PER23x FY20
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.92	8.3	Buy
08/01/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x FY19
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.67	9.5	Hold
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.67	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
08/01/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.67	0	Hold
08/01/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.52	0.65	Buy	DCF

China has limited its Chinese from visiting Taiwan.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-criticizes-chinas-ban-individual-033205976.html

This is not surprising since President Tsai is a pro-independent woman.  We need to remember that Taiwan is part of China after all.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/taiwan-president-is-making-ridiculous.html

Taiwan has a huge trade surplus with China and it is using the trade surplus to purchase US military weapons to be used against China.  Therefore, it's about time that China should rein in the Taiwan-China trade surplus.

US-China trade talk broke down again in July 2019.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/china-us-officials-meet-for-trade-talks-in-shanghai.html

Despite the proclamation of a constructive meeting at the end of July 2019, the US-China trade talk actually broke down because both sides couldn't agree on numerous issues.  Furthermore, we could see that both countries accused each other of flip-flopping after the meeting.

The only constructive outcome was that both parties were still willing to continue the trade talk in September.

The US Fed has cut interest rate by 0.25%!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-meeting-rates-powell-211534497.html

We've got it right. We predicted a rate cut in July 2019 by analyzing the 4 US rates and the PMI in June.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

First Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	phillip	First Reit	1.04	0.88	Neutral	DDM
01/17/19	Lim & Tan	First Reit	1.03	0	Neutral
01/18/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.01	0.97	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.01	1.2	Add	DDM
02/11/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.14	0.97	Sell
04/11/19	CIMB	First Reit	0.99	1.2	Add	DDM

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.605	0.68	Add
01/16/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.625	0.675	Buy
02/07/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.675	Buy
02/13/19	Lim & Tan	Far East Hospitality	0.64	0	Buy
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.7	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Add	DDM
02/14/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.75	Buy	DDM
02/14/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Buy
04/15/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.67	Hold
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.7	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.71	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.8	Buy
06/12/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.645	0.67	Hold
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.675	0.8	Buy
07/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.82	Buy	DDM
07/31/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.67	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold

F&N - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/24/19	DMG & Partners	F & N	1.73	3.53	Not Rated	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 31 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.03	3.01	Hold	Buy @ $2.78
07/31/19	CIMB	ART	1.3	1.31	Hold	DDM
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.3	1.45	Buy
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	BRC Asia	1.37	1.75	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
07/31/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.56	Hold
07/31/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.79	Buy	DDM
07/31/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.92	Add
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.8	Buy	DCF
07/31/19	Macquarie	DBS	26.49	25.8	Neutral	PB
07/31/19	phillip	DBS	26.49	27.6	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.4x
07/31/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.67	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
07/31/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.88	2.16	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.50 target price
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.515	0.48	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.42
07/31/19	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.42	1.5	Add	DDM
07/31/19	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.06	0	Hold
07/31/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.04	1.09	Neutral	DCF
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.36	1.9	Buy	PB1.8x FY19
07/31/19	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.36	1.59	Neutral	PB1.6x FY19
07/31/19	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.36	1.8	Buy	PB1.64x FY20
07/31/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.36	1.16	Reduce	PB1.1x
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.36	1.32	Hold	Buy @ $1.25
07/31/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.15	0.96	Sell	DCF
07/31/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.15	1.19	Buy
07/31/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.15	1.25	Add
07/31/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.8	0.79	Hold

Will China cut its bank interest rates soon?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-rates/fed-easing-could-prompt-first-china-rate-cut-in-four-years-analysts-idUSKCN1U30IJ

Many analysts were expecting China to cut its bank interest rates after the US Fed meeting on 31 July 2019.  However, they are going to be wrong because they don't analyse the economic situation properly.

We had stated that China wouldn't need to reduce its bank interest rates in our previous post in June.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

The recent announcement by the Chinese authority also corroborated our analysis in June.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-politburo-vows-action-trade-130458638.html