Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides! - Part 2

Current futures = 19080 (last closing)

Expected futures = 19600

Date from 2 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 67 days

Upside deviation for Dec 2016= 1.45%

Downside deviation for Dec 2016 = -1.32%

Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 30 December 16

As Nikkei has risen more than 1000 points from our buy call, it has shown that Nikkei has digested all the exigent circumstances like Brexit and Trump victory.  Therefore, the past data will no longer have any bearing on the future and we’ll only use December 2016 for our data analysis.

After inputing all the above parameters, binomial probability for upside is 63.9% and downside is 36.1%.  Therefore, if the fundamental factors like yen weaknesses and interest rate rises do not change, Nikkei will continue to rise further.

Part 1.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/12/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html