Clearbridge - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/19	phillip	Clearbridge	0.142	0.28	Buy	DCF

City Developments - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	7.94	0	Buy
01/17/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.85	10.65	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
02/11/19	Jefferies	City Developments	9.16	12	Buy
02/22/19	phillip	City Developments	9.54	11.82	Accumulate	RNAV (30% discount)
02/22/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.54	10.68	Buy
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.54	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	9.54	9.5	Hold	RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19	CIMB	City Developments	9.54	10.66	Add
03/21/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	9.02	0	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.87	10.66	Add
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.31	9.2	Neutral
04/17/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.32	10.68	Buy

Chip Eng Seng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Chip Eng Seng	0.705	0.75	Hold

Stock calls for 30 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/30/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.01	2.74	Hold
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.01	2.9	Neutral	DDM
04/30/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.69	2.88	Add	DCF, PER18.1x FY20
04/30/19	Macquarie	DBS	28.4	27	Neutral
04/30/19	phillip	DBS	28.4	29	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19	OCBC	DBS	28.4	29.18	Hold	Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19	CIMB	DBS	28.4	30	Add	GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	28.4	30.8	Buy	PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	28.4	30	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.2	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.24	0.22	Hold
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.24	0.26	Hold
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.12	1.05	Hold	DDM
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.88	0.97	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.47	1.38	Hold
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.07	1.02	Neutral
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.23	Buy	DCF & PER21x
04/30/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.1	Hold	PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.24	Buy	DCF
04/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhill	0.755	0.9	Buy	DDM

Will the US Fed cut the interest rate in May 2019?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-may-end-seeing-1995-190000337.html

Some people are hoping and predicting a fed rate cut in May 2019 but I don't share the same sentiment as them because the EFFR has been rising to 2.44% now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

When the EFFR(2.44%) is greater than IOER(2.4%), it becomes a monetary tightening situation because the excess funds are moving into EFFR which are usually used to invest in treasuries.  Therefore, there is lesser money available in commercial markets like mortgage and commercial loans.  This is the rationale behind the rise in USD as the money supply is shrinking.

If the US Fed were to cut the interest rate, it would cause the USD to depreciate and that would contradict the rise in EFFR which was causing the rise in USD.  By cutting the rate now will send a bewildering signal to the market and also highlighting the contradictory stances between the US Fed and Trump.  This will also send a signal that Trump has intervened in the independent Fed again which is bad for the US economy.

Canada is just plain stupid.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/canadian-farm-exports-run-into-chinese-wall-amid-diplomatic-dispute-11487824

When China buys more from the US, it has to cut back from other countries especially from unfriendly ones like Canada.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/many-countries-are-fearful-of-upcoming.html

We've stated this in our previous post above.

China Sunsine - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.2	1.68	Buy
03/04/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.26	1.55	Buy	FCFE

China Everbright - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/21/19	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.345	0.475	Buy	PER15x FY19
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.35	0.49	Buy
02/25/19	phillip	China Everbright	0.355	0.48	Buy	PER8.9x FY19

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.5	Neutral
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.85	Buy	PER12x FY19
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1
03/05/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.3	1.67	Buy	PER11.5x FY19
03/27/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x, PB1.2x, Ev/Ebitda6.5x
04/02/19	CIMB	China Aviation Oil	1.38	1.7	Add	PER11x FY20
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.43	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.39	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1

Stock calls for 29 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.27	1.4	Buy	DDM
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.39	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1
04/29/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	27.41	0	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.71	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.4	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.48	Hold
04/29/19	phillip	SGX	7.4	8.09	Accumulate	PER21.4x
04/29/19	CIMB	SGX	7.4	7.9	Add
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.11	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy	PER5x FY19
04/29/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.75	0.78	Buy	DDM
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.75	0.77	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Starhill	0.75	0.7	Hold
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Talkmed	0.51	0.62	Buy	DCF
04/29/19	CIMB	Venture	17.52	17.88	Hold	PER12.5x
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Venture	17.52	19.74	Hold	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19

The US economy is going downhill despite the good GDP number.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rpt-column-u-economy-loses-000000823.html

Don't be fooled by the headline number because the demon is hidden in the details.

Our previous analysis of the PMI had already shown that the US economy was slowing down.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Local consumption makes up about 70% of US GDP and the latest GDP number is showing that consumer spending is slowing down rapidly.  The sharp fall in import is also raising some concerns and this is also reflected in the previous PMI number.

It looks like the US must end the US-China trade war soon or the bad economic growth will surface in the GDP headline number.

Baltic dry index - 889

Today, Friday, April 26 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 20 points, reaching 889 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

==================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 991

The rig count in the Permian Basin was down by three this week, the latest count Friday by Baker Hughes shows, with 460 rigs active in the region. A year ago, 452 rigs were active in the region.

Nationally, the oil and gas rig count is down 21 from last week at 991 rigs. A year ago, 1021 rigs were active. The count shows that 805 rigs sought oil, down twenty from the previous week, and 186 explored for natural gas, down one from the previous week.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

==========================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Centurion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.405	0.41	Neutral	DCF
03/06/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.425	0.41	Neutral	DCF

CEI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.945	0.97	Hold	PER10x FY20

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.46	1.8	Buy	DDM
01/02/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.46	1.63	Add
01/17/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.75	Buy
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.83	Buy
01/31/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.64	Add	DDM
01/31/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.56	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.85	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Add
02/28/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.8	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.65	1.85	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.67	1.8	Buy

Stock calls for 26 April 2016

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.16	1.4	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	1.62	0	Cease Coverage	Suspension
04/26/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
04/26/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.21	Neutral	DDM
04/26/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.39	Hold	DDM
04/26/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.51	1.5	Hold
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.43	1.6	Buy
04/26/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.67	Hold
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.7	Buy
04/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.31	Neutral	DDM
04/26/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.215	Accumulate
04/26/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.215	0.3	Buy
04/26/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.8	0	Buy
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.92	Buy
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
04/26/19	OCBC	SGX	7.26	7.6	Hold	PER21x FY20
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.26	7.05	Hold	DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19	Kim Eng	SGX	7.26	8.79	Buy	PER23x FY19
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.89	4.15	Buy
04/26/19	OCBC	Venture	19.29	20.89	Buy	PER15x FY19/20
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	19.29	19	Neutral
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	19.29	21.7	Buy	PER15.8x FY19

What's happening to the USD now? Why is it rising again?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usd-is-likely-to-depreciate-soon-why.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/usa-is-gearing-up-for-usd-depreciation.html

The USD was supposed to be depreciating as Trump wanted it to be lower.  The USD did depreciate for a short while before rebounding again.  What the hell was going on?  Well, the US FED is causing the USD to appreciate with its rising rates.  Therefore, it looks like the FED and Trump are at loggerheads now.

The USD index is around 98 now compared to below 96 in March 2019.

The USD value is affected by interest rates.  The US Fed manages the US economy by setting an interest rate bandwidth which is currently at 2.25-2.5%.

There are 4 interest rates that we need to familiarize ourselves with:
Interest on required reserves (iorr) : 2.4% now (Max limit is 2.5% and this sets the upper bandwidth)

The bank required capital ratio fund has to be deposited with the Fed which will yield a FED interest rate of 2.4%.

Effective federal funds rate (effr): 2.44% now (This has been rising in April 2019).

The US bank has to pay 2.44% interest rate to the Fed when it wants to borrow money.  The Fed has been raising this interest rate in April 2019 which is signifying a reluctance to flood the monetary system with cheap money.  This is the proximate cause of the recent USD appreciation because the Fed is sending a subtle message which is the exact opposite of Trump's intention.

Interest rate on excess reserves (ioer) : 2.4% now (This is what the Fed will pay when the US bank deposits its excess cash with the Fed).

Overnight reverse repurchase rate (on rrp) : 2.25% now (This is basically a 1-day sell and buy-back scheme conducted by the Fed and this sets the lower bandwidth).  In short, this is the Fed 1-day IOU and the Fed pays 2.25% interest rate.

As we can see, there is a premium difference between the effr (2.44%) and ioer (2.4%).  This premium difference is depicting a monetary tightening condition which also helps to explain the USD appreciation.

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 3

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-slashes-forecasts-amid-decline-204616825.html

https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/apr/23/texas-instruments-revenue-profit-beat-estimates-shares-rise/

The semiconductor titans are reporting weaker sales forecasts due to poor China demand.  Therefore, 2019 won't be a bumper year for the semiconductor industry.  However, Micron Tech is still being extremely optimistic and fudging its numbers when it has more than 50% China sales.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-stock-rallies-second-half-2019-recovery/

We've stated the global semiconductor slowdown in October 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.42	Hold
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.65	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.39	1.66	Accumulate
03/21/19	Amfrasers	CapitaRetail China	1.52	1.61	Buy	DDM
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.57	1.65	Buy

Capitamall Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/22/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.26	2.29	Hold	DDM
01/23/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.27	2.12	Hold
01/24/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.09	Neutral	DDM, PB1.06x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.25	Hold	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.25	Hold
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.44	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.02	Hold	Buy @ $1.84
02/15/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.38	2.09	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.42	2.25	Hold
03/14/19	DMG & Partners	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.2	Neutral	DDM
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.41	2.4	Hold
04/24/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.32	2.25	Hold
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.55	Buy
04/25/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.32	Hold

Capitaland - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.11	4	Buy
01/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.07	3.96	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
01/07/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.06	3.55	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.27	3.62	Buy
01/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.27	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
02/20/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.39	0	Buy
02/21/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.43	3.98	Buy	RNAV
02/21/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.43	4	Accumulate	PB0.75x FY19
02/21/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.43	3.56	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.43	3.62	Buy
03/18/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.44	3.98	Buy
03/21/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.47	0	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.44	3.56	Add
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitaland	3.65	4.4	Buy
04/02/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.69	3.9	Outperform	RNAV
04/02/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	3.98	Buy

Stock calls for 25 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/25/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.55	Buy
04/25/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.32	Hold
04/25/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.51	0.6	Add	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.51	0.565	Buy
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.19	Neutral	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.61	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.23	1.34	Add	DDM
04/25/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0	Hold
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.89	2	Buy
04/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.9	4.7	Buy	EV/Invested capital basis
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.9	4.1	Buy
04/25/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.9	4.3	Buy	DCF
04/25/19	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.89	1.83	Hold	DDM

SGX is losing its IPO shine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/thailand-set-to-be-southeast-asia-s-hottest-ipo-market-with-us-11476512

Vietnam overtook SGX last year.

Look like Thailand will overtake SGX this year too.  Sigh!  SGX is losing its shine under the helm of an ex-investment banker.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/sgx-has-lost-its-ipo-crown-jewel-status.html

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.75	1.9	Accumulate
01/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.82	2.11	Buy	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.83	1.68	Hold
01/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2.16	Buy	DDM
01/25/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.85	1.86	Neutral	DDM
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2	Buy	DCF
01/25/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.85	0	Hold
01/28/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.83	Hold
01/28/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.94	Add
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.86	1.93	Accumulate
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.98	1.86	Neutral
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.92	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.93	Neutral	DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.86	Neutral	DDM
04/22/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.88	Hold
04/22/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.03	Add	DDM
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.93	0	Hold

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Neutral	DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Hold	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.76	Hold
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.81	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.74	Hold
01/28/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.85	Buy
02/15/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.71	0.75	Neutral
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.81	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.7	Hold