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Wednesday, June 2, 2021

Why is there a discrepancy in the relationship between the US treasury yield and the USD index?

One of my viewers had emailed me to seek an explanation of the discrepancy in the relationship between the US treasury yield and the USD index.

I'm very heartened that someone is reading my postings seriously and I will do some clarification here.

In my post on 4 Feb 2021 below, the China credit impulse and USD chart showed a strong inverse correlation between China credit impulse and the USD index.  The China credit impulse was starting to weaken at the beginning of 2021 and this would mean that the USD would strengthen (inverse) in the future.




Let's take a look at the latest China credit impulse now.


The China credit impulse is indeed declining in 2021 insofar but the USD is not strengthening (weakening) as predicted which defies the inverse correlation.  The reason for such a deviation is because the short-term data will be affected by many factors and will also lag the long-term trend (China credit impulse trendline, 2009 to 2021 data chart).


I also had stated in my Feb 2021 post that the US treasury yield (10-year) was highly correlated to the USD index.  However, this was only a short-term financial opinion because funds usually would flow from a low-interest yield country to a high-interest yield country as investors would seek higher returns.

My recent post in May 2021 had shown an inverse relationship between inflation expectation and the USD index.  Since the treasury yield forms part of the equation, it is also inversely related to the USD index.


I hope I've clarified all the doubts.  Cheers!

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