The world economic conditions have deteriorated further.

We've received numerous requests from our viewers to update our economic assessments for the US on its GDP growth and inflation.

Well, we can say that we've not changed our stances since our last video (4th YT video).  The US inflation is persistent and the US GDP growth is having diminishing marginal return.

The latest PCE inflation is at 4.4% which is the FED's preferred indicator and the recent GDP growth is at 2%.

Furthermore, China's GDP has also declined to 4.9% but we believe that this figure will be the trough for China since its GDP growth will rebound in Q4 due to the upcoming festive season (CNY).

All in all, we've decided to increase our core PCE inflation for the US to 4% (up from 3% in our last video) for the year-end.

We'll also try to do our 5th video soon to explain our analyses.  Basically, the US inflation will persist because of 3 fundamental reasons, namely, housing and rental, energy and wage.

The house price will keep rising which will force the rental to reset at a much higher rate because rental lags behind house price by 16-18 months.  The energy prices such as gas and oil will remain at an elevated high till next year while wages will keep rising to address the mismatch in jobs.