The June ISM PMI declined to a 1-year low (53).

Just as we had expected, the June ISM PMI had declined.  We had told our viewers to ignore the May ISM PMI previously because it was an aberration.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/06/ism-pmi-increased-slightly-in-may-2022.html

Let's do an analysis of the June PMI to determine its outlook.

The prices subindex had eased to 78.5 (-3.7) because of an easing in supply disruption and a collapse in consumer demand. The new order (49.2, -5.9) had just entered a contractionary phase (below 50). Moreover, the new export order (50.7, -2.2) and new local order (Est’d -3.7) declined simultaneously. This had resulted in the backlog order decreasing to 53.2 (-5.5) as there were fewer unfulfilled orders. The customers’ inventories (35.2, +2.5) increased because of lower consumer spending.

The production had increased to 54.9 (+0.7) with lower employment (47.3, -2.3) and faster supplier’s deliveries (57.3, - 8.4) because of higher productivity. Employment was lower because of the bleak production outlook and difficulties in hiring. Thus, the inventories stayed relatively stable (56, +0.1).

In conclusion, the above factors caused the PMI to decline to a 1 year low of 53 (-3.1) and would continue its downward trajectory.