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Wednesday, August 2, 2023

The US PMI has contracted for 9 consecutive months already!



The prices subindex had increased to 42.6 (+0.8) because of persistently high core PCE.  Despite the higher new order, the producers were pessimistic about the economic outlook and cut back on their employment (44.4, -3.7).  There was no supply and logistic disruption anymore as indicated by the low supplier’s deliveries (46.1, +0.4).

The new order (47.3, +1.7) increased because of higher new local order (Est’d +2.8) versus the lower new export order (46.2, -1.1).  The producers increased their inventories (46.1, +2.1), local raw material (Est’d +1.8) and import (49.6, +0.3) to meet the higher new local order, and also increased their production (48.3, +1.6) and customers’ inventories (48.7, +2.5).  The backlog of order increased to 42.8 (+4.1) because the production couldn’t fulfil the higher new order.


Overall, the PMI increased to 46.4 (+0.4) but it was still in a contractionary phase.  Thus, the US economy is still set to enter into a recession because the US consumers have depleted their pandemic savings.

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