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Tuesday, February 3, 2026

The latest ISM PMI spiked in January 2026.


Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 9.7 - 3.4 = 6.3

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = 1.9 - 5.4 = -3.5

The ISM PMI increased to 52.6 (+4.7) because of significant increases in new orders, new export orders and local new orders.

The increases in demands caused the production and employment to spike simultaneously.  The backlog of orders also increased because the production couldn't fulfil the new orders and resulted in the depletion of customers' inventories.  What was surprising was the price only increased marginally.

Overall, this latest PMI report was good compared to its previous reports.  We will need to look at the next 2 PMI reports to determine whether this PMI is just an aberration or this is the beginning of something better.

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