Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 2.7-2.7 = 0
Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = 0.9-2.7 = -1.8
Although the price hike had eased, it still remained at an elevated high (82.1) and this might explain the bleak local consumption.
The new orders increased (+2.7) because of a boost in new export orders (+2.7). However, the comparison between the new orders & new export orders had revealed that the local new orders (local consumption) had stalled (est'd 0).
The production and employment were increased to fulfill increases in the new orders and new export orders. Consequently, all these also led to the increases in the backlog orders and customers' inventories.
In the end, the ISM PMI increased to 54 but the underlying factors painted a dour outlook.
The 2 things to highlight in this PMI are the price and new local orders because these 2 factors will impact the US GDP significantly. The high price and weak consumption have corroborated the recent downward revision of the US GDP (from 2% to 1.6%).
No comments:
Post a Comment