https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/vietnam-central-bank-to-cut-rates-by-025-percentage-points
Wow! Vietnam economists must be awarded the Nobel prize for controlling inflation with interest rates cut. It is an almost impossible task to do and Vietnam has the confidence to achieve it.
Let's see how Vietnam will accomplish this insurmountable task because this defies my economic knowledge.
Friday, September 13, 2019
Huawei's Kirin 990 is the best chip now.
It impressed many techies in the IFA event in Germany. It can download a complete movie in 6 seconds while the 4G chip can only download 12% in 6 seconds. It can also replace the background of a video instantaneously that the 4G chip cannot do.
I got swept away by Huawei's Kirin 990. Kudos to Huawei!
Trump knows who are his friends and foes now.
Multiple bankruptcies had taught Trump a few things in life.
Let me surmise what are the things you can learn from multiple bankruptcies.
1st bankruptcy - You will learn and know who your real friends are because many of your "friends" will avoid you during your bankruptcy for fear that you will borrow money from them. You can tell who your friends and foes are by now.
2nd bankruptcy - You will learn and understand more about yourself because you know what you can and cannot do in life by now. In short, you know your own capabilities after your 2nd bankruptcy.
3rd bankruptcy - You will learn and understand this world better than other people after having gone through the vicissitudes of life. You will know how this world works by now. This was also the reason Trump got elected to be the US president because he understood how the US system was like after his numerous bankruptcies.
Trump knew who would make him lose his presidential and had fired a few hawkish people in his team.
The hawkish people are:
James Mattis
Steven Bannon
John Bolton
The remaining hawkish people in his team are feeling apprehensive now because they are fearful of their dismissals if they continue to be aggressive.
Let's see how this will affect future US political policies.
Monetary easing (ME) policy should be used as a last resort, not as a first resort.
Central bankers are abusing the monetary easing policy nowadays and using it as a first resort to solve their economic problems.
Basically, the monetary easing policy is used to increase the money supply in the banking and financial system with the ensuing outcome to depreciate the currency and cause inflation. Therefore, it will become an invisible tax (higher inflation) on ordinary consumers who don't borrow the "new" money with lower interest rates to invest.
The monetary easing policy should be used as a last resort because it is supposed to be implemented when the economic projection is very bleak. If the economic projection is very bleak, business investments and consumer spendings must be encouraged. The business owners are able to borrow the new money at lower interest rates for their investments and consumers' propensity to spend will also be higher because of higher inflation expectations.
However, the ME policy is a double-edged sword because when the economic projection is very bleak, the job security is also expected to be low and this may deter consumer spendings and consumers may end up saving more for rainy days. Consequently, the ME policy will encourage more savings than spendings instead because it is signalling to the general public that the future economy is very weak. For example, if the bank is adopting a ME policy of negative interest of -1%, how many people will borrow from the bank to buy a property even when the bank is paying the borrower an interest? The borrower will be worried that he will lose his job anytime and won't buy a big-ticket item because taking on additional debt in a bad economic situation is a bad idea.
Therefore, the ME policy is to be used as a last resort since the outcome is uncertain. When the economic situation is in dire straits, then the ME should be used and hope that the best outcome prevails.
Basically, the monetary easing policy is used to increase the money supply in the banking and financial system with the ensuing outcome to depreciate the currency and cause inflation. Therefore, it will become an invisible tax (higher inflation) on ordinary consumers who don't borrow the "new" money with lower interest rates to invest.
The monetary easing policy should be used as a last resort because it is supposed to be implemented when the economic projection is very bleak. If the economic projection is very bleak, business investments and consumer spendings must be encouraged. The business owners are able to borrow the new money at lower interest rates for their investments and consumers' propensity to spend will also be higher because of higher inflation expectations.
However, the ME policy is a double-edged sword because when the economic projection is very bleak, the job security is also expected to be low and this may deter consumer spendings and consumers may end up saving more for rainy days. Consequently, the ME policy will encourage more savings than spendings instead because it is signalling to the general public that the future economy is very weak. For example, if the bank is adopting a ME policy of negative interest of -1%, how many people will borrow from the bank to buy a property even when the bank is paying the borrower an interest? The borrower will be worried that he will lose his job anytime and won't buy a big-ticket item because taking on additional debt in a bad economic situation is a bad idea.
Therefore, the ME policy is to be used as a last resort since the outcome is uncertain. When the economic situation is in dire straits, then the ME should be used and hope that the best outcome prevails.
ECB cut rates and restarted QE.
https://www.businessinsider.sg/ecb-launches-fresh-round-of-stimulus-with-10-basis-point-cut-2019-9/?r=US&IR=T
ECB has cut its rate to -0.5% and restarted a quantitative easing of EU$20B per month.
This ECB move has angered Trump and his fury is flaring.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1177150/EU-news-European-Central-Bank-ECB-Donald-Trump-euro-dollar-Eurozone-latest-forecast
It is not surprising that the ECB cuts its rates because the EU is sliding into a recession. Germany, the strongest and biggest economy, will enter into a recession this quarter and the rest of Europe will follow suit. Therefore, the EU is in a dire need of a strong stimulus package to revive itself.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/germany-will-enter-into-recession-this.html
However, this reprise is only temporary and can be as short as 6 months. Thereafter, a recession will creep in after March 2020. Why?
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/what-is-targeted-longer-term.html
The 2nd TLTRO will end in March 2020 and this reduces the efficacy of the oomph. Furthermore, the ISM PMI has just contracted in the US (below 50). The US economy will feel the impact of the PMI contraction (reported in Sept 2019) in as short as 6 months time (March 2020). Thus, the USA and the EU are in a precarious situation after March 2020 if nothing is being done to prevent the impending recession in 2020.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
ECB has cut its rate to -0.5% and restarted a quantitative easing of EU$20B per month.
This ECB move has angered Trump and his fury is flaring.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1177150/EU-news-European-Central-Bank-ECB-Donald-Trump-euro-dollar-Eurozone-latest-forecast
It is not surprising that the ECB cuts its rates because the EU is sliding into a recession. Germany, the strongest and biggest economy, will enter into a recession this quarter and the rest of Europe will follow suit. Therefore, the EU is in a dire need of a strong stimulus package to revive itself.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/germany-will-enter-into-recession-this.html
However, this reprise is only temporary and can be as short as 6 months. Thereafter, a recession will creep in after March 2020. Why?
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/what-is-targeted-longer-term.html
The 2nd TLTRO will end in March 2020 and this reduces the efficacy of the oomph. Furthermore, the ISM PMI has just contracted in the US (below 50). The US economy will feel the impact of the PMI contraction (reported in Sept 2019) in as short as 6 months time (March 2020). Thus, the USA and the EU are in a precarious situation after March 2020 if nothing is being done to prevent the impending recession in 2020.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
Trump demanded FED to cut rates to zero!
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-demands-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-to-zero-or-less-121700558.html
Either Trump doesn't understand economics or he has seen the latest GDP numbers for him to demand FED to cut rates to zero.
Trump is wishfully thinking that he can refinance the national debts at zero interest rates after the US FED cuts them to zero. He has mistaken the national debts with mortgage debts. National debts are non-callable while mortgage debts are callable. Therefore, the US government can only buy back the national debts from the treasuries market and re-issue new bonds at lower interest rates if the US interest rates are at zero.
However, something is amiss in Trump's thinking. First of all, the US government doesn't have the money to buy back all the national debts because it doesn't even have enough money to pay all the federal employees resulting in a potential government shutdown. Next, the US government has to pay much higher prices to buy back the national debts in the open market and this will wipe out all the interest savings or incur more losses. Third, this buyback action will disrupt the treasuries market and create big chaos for the international markets.
In this regard, Trump shows his innateness and lack of proper economics understanding.
In another perspective, Trump must have seen the latest GDP numbers which were so bad that he panicked and demanded FED to cut rates to zero from 2-2.25%.
We had indicated a very bad GDP number for the US after the PMI report.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
Either Trump doesn't understand economics or he has seen the latest GDP numbers for him to demand FED to cut rates to zero.
Trump is wishfully thinking that he can refinance the national debts at zero interest rates after the US FED cuts them to zero. He has mistaken the national debts with mortgage debts. National debts are non-callable while mortgage debts are callable. Therefore, the US government can only buy back the national debts from the treasuries market and re-issue new bonds at lower interest rates if the US interest rates are at zero.
However, something is amiss in Trump's thinking. First of all, the US government doesn't have the money to buy back all the national debts because it doesn't even have enough money to pay all the federal employees resulting in a potential government shutdown. Next, the US government has to pay much higher prices to buy back the national debts in the open market and this will wipe out all the interest savings or incur more losses. Third, this buyback action will disrupt the treasuries market and create big chaos for the international markets.
In this regard, Trump shows his innateness and lack of proper economics understanding.
In another perspective, Trump must have seen the latest GDP numbers which were so bad that he panicked and demanded FED to cut rates to zero from 2-2.25%.
We had indicated a very bad GDP number for the US after the PMI report.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
Thursday, September 12, 2019
SGX - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/04/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.15 | 9.01 | Buy | |
| 01/25/19 | CIMB | SGX | 7.5 | 7.9 | Add | PER22.1x FY20 |
| 01/25/19 | DMG & Partners | SGX | 7.5 | 8.2 | Buy | PER22x FY20 |
| 01/28/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.57 | 8.36 | Buy | PER23.2x FY19 |
| 01/28/19 | OCBC | SGX | 7.57 | 7.98 | Buy | PER22x F19/20 |
| 02/22/19 | Citibank | SGX | 7.87 | 7.8 | Hold | |
| 03/12/19 | Citibank | SGX | 7.46 | 7 | Sell | |
| 03/14/19 | DBS Vickers | SGX | 7.26 | 7.05 | Hold | DDM, PER20x CY20 |
| 03/19/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.31 | 8.17 | Accumulate | PER23.2x |
| 04/05/19 | DMG & Partners | SGX | 7.42 | 8.1 | Buy | PER23x FY20 |
| 04/26/19 | OCBC | SGX | 7.26 | 7.6 | Hold | PER21x FY20 |
| 04/26/19 | DBS Vickers | SGX | 7.26 | 7.05 | Hold | DDM, PER20x FY20 |
| 04/26/19 | Kim Eng | SGX | 7.26 | 8.79 | Buy | PER23x FY19 |
| 04/29/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.4 | 8.09 | Accumulate | PER21.4x |
| 04/29/19 | CIMB | SGX | 7.4 | 7.9 | Add | PER22.1x FY20 |
| 06/28/19 | DBS Vickers | SGX | 7.95 | 7.05 | Hold | DDM, PER20x FY20 |
| 07/15/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.99 | 8.09 | Accumulate | PER21.4x |
| 08/01/19 | DMG & Partners | SGX | 7.92 | 8.1 | Neutral | PER23x FY20 |
| 08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | SGX | 7.92 | 8.3 | Buy | DDM |
| 08/02/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.78 | 8.09 | Accumulate | PER21x |
| 08/05/19 | CIMB | SGX | 7.98 | 8.1 | Hold | PER21.5x |
Sembcorp Marine - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/10/19 | DIR | Sembcorp Marine | 1.62 | 1.62 | Hold | Cut from $1.78, PB1.8x FY19 |
| 01/22/19 | Amfrasers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.66 | 2.5 | Buy | |
| 02/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Marine | 1.6 | 1.83 | Hold | PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.50 |
| 02/04/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.59 | 2.4 | Buy | PB2.1x FY19 |
| 02/21/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Marine | 1.68 | 2.21 | Add | PB2x CY19 |
| 02/21/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Marine | 1.68 | 1.77 | Hold | |
| 02/21/19 | phillip | Sembcorp Marine | 1.68 | 1.76 | Neutral | PB1.6x |
| 02/21/19 | Lim & Tan | Sembcorp Marine | 1.68 | 0 | Hold | |
| 02/26/19 | Amfrasers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.72 | 2.48 | Buy | |
| 04/09/19 | Amfrasers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.7 | 2.48 | Buy | |
| 04/09/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.7 | 2.4 | Buy | |
| 05/03/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Marine | 1.69 | 2.21 | Add | PB2x |
| 05/06/19 | phillip | Sembcorp Marine | 1.67 | 1.76 | Neutral | PB1.6x |
| 05/06/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Marine | 1.67 | 1.77 | Hold | |
| 05/06/19 | Amfrasers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.67 | 2.48 | Buy | |
| 05/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.67 | 2.4 | Buy | PB2.1x FY19 |
| 05/30/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Marine | 1.45 | 1.6 | Hold | PB1.45x |
| 06/04/19 | DMG & Partners | Sembcorp Marine | 1.39 | 1.99 | Buy | PB1.8x FY20 |
| 07/03/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Marine | 1.54 | 1.75 | Add | PB1.6x CY19 |
| 07/03/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Marine | 1.54 | 1.6 | Hold | |
| 07/04/19 | Macquarie | Sembcorp Marine | 1.41 | 1.57 | Neutral | |
| 07/04/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.41 | 2.4 | Buy | |
| 07/31/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.36 | 1.9 | Buy | PB1.8x FY19 |
| 07/31/19 | Amfrasers | Sembcorp Marine | 1.36 | 1.59 | Neutral | PB1.6x FY19 |
| 07/31/19 | DMG & Partners | Sembcorp Marine | 1.36 | 1.8 | Buy | PB1.64x FY20 |
| 07/31/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Marine | 1.36 | 1.16 | Reduce | PB1.1x |
| 07/31/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Marine | 1.36 | 1.32 | Hold | DCF, Buy @ $1.25 |
| 08/06/19 | Macquarie | Sembcorp Marine | 1.28 | 1.4 | Neutral | PB |
| 09/03/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Marine | 1.16 | 1.22 | Hold | Buy @ $1.10 |
| 09/03/19 | DMG & Partners | Sembcorp Marine | 1.16 | 1.63 | Buy | PB1.48x FY20 |
| 09/09/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Marine | 1.19 | 1.26 | Hold | PB1.2x CY19 |
Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/10/19 | DIR | Sembcorp Industries | 2.64 | 3.05 | Outperform | Sum of parts, cut from $3.26 |
| 01/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Industries | 2.63 | 3.2 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 01/23/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Industries | 2.69 | 3.49 | Add | |
| 02/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Industries | 2.59 | 3.2 | Buy | |
| 02/04/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.58 | 3.7 | Buy | |
| 02/21/19 | Lim & Tan | Sembcorp Industries | 2.66 | 0 | Hold | |
| 02/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.67 | 3.9 | Buy | RNAV (10% discount), PB1x |
| 03/13/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Industries | 2.57 | 2.8 | Hold | Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35 |
| 03/18/19 | Lim & Tan | Sembcorp Industries | 2.52 | 0 | Hold | |
| 04/09/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.75 | 3.9 | Buy | |
| 05/16/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Industries | 2.54 | 3.13 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.54 | 3.9 | Buy | Sum of parts, PB1x |
| 05/16/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Industries | 2.54 | 3.41 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 05/17/19 | phillip | Sembcorp Industries | 2.55 | 3.75 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 06/04/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Industries | 2.38 | 3.03 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 07/03/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Industries | 2.47 | 3.03 | Buy | |
| 07/04/19 | Macquarie | Sembcorp Industries | 2.41 | 2.84 | Outperform | |
| 08/15/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Industries | 2.26 | 2.83 | Add | Sum of parts |
| 08/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sembcorp Industries | 2.26 | 2.34 | Hold | |
| 08/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.26 | 3.2 | Buy | Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19 |
| 09/12/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.21 | 3.2 | Buy | Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19 |
| 09/12/19 | Lim & Tan | Sembcorp Industries | 2.21 | 0 | Buy |
Stock calls for 12 September 2019
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 09/12/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.495 | 0.65 | Buy | |
| 09/12/19 | DMG & Partners | City Developments | 9.9 | 9.2 | Neutral | |
| 09/12/19 | DBS Vickers | Sabana | 0.455 | 0.48 | Hold | DCF |
| 09/12/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.21 | 3.2 | Buy | Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19 |
| 09/12/19 | Lim & Tan | Sembcorp Industries | 2.21 | 0 | Buy |
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Cathy Pacific to cut capacity because HK travel falls.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-cathay-pacific-cut-capacity-091425705.html
Cathy Pacific has only itself to blame for the predicament it is facing.
Cathy Pacific management supported its employees to be anti-government protestors. This airliner has about 3,000 potential terrorists on its payrolls and this will create a flight risk for passengers.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/cathy-pacific-is-high-risk-airliner-fly.html
If Cathy Pacific doesn't eradicate this large group of potential terrorists by re-educating and re-retraining, the mainland passengers won't have the faith to take this airliner because the employees are emotionally disturbed.
Cathy Pacific has only itself to blame for the predicament it is facing.
Cathy Pacific management supported its employees to be anti-government protestors. This airliner has about 3,000 potential terrorists on its payrolls and this will create a flight risk for passengers.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/cathy-pacific-is-high-risk-airliner-fly.html
If Cathy Pacific doesn't eradicate this large group of potential terrorists by re-educating and re-retraining, the mainland passengers won't have the faith to take this airliner because the employees are emotionally disturbed.
Germany will enter into a recession this current quarter.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/german-institutes-see-recession-cut-092552134.html
We had anticipated in January 2019 that the EU would slip into a recession much faster than Asia and we followed up with the same issue again in March 2019.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-and-europe-will-slip-into.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/germany-will-enter-into-recession-in.html
The German Institute IFW has predicted that Germany will slide into a recession this current quarter which corroborates our conclusion.
We had anticipated in January 2019 that the EU would slip into a recession much faster than Asia and we followed up with the same issue again in March 2019.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-and-europe-will-slip-into.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/germany-will-enter-into-recession-in.html
The German Institute IFW has predicted that Germany will slide into a recession this current quarter which corroborates our conclusion.
SATS - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/04/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 4.59 | 5.6 | Buy | |
| 01/11/19 | OCBC | SATS | 4.94 | 5.23 | Hold | DCF |
| 02/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 4.8 | 5.6 | Buy | |
| 02/14/19 | phillip | SATS | 4.98 | 5.47 | Accumulate | DCF, PER24.6x FY19 |
| 02/14/19 | OCBC | SATS | 4.98 | 5.23 | Hold | |
| 02/14/19 | CIMB | SATS | 4.98 | 5.46 | Add | PER20.3x |
| 02/14/19 | Lim & Tan | SATS | 4.98 | 0 | Hold | |
| 02/14/19 | DBS Vickers | SATS | 4.98 | 5.59 | Buy | DCF & PER22x FY19 |
| 02/14/19 | Kim Eng | SATS | 4.98 | 5.8 | Buy | |
| 02/15/19 | Citi Research | SATS | 5.08 | 6 | Buy | |
| 03/26/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.06 | 5.6 | Buy | |
| 04/15/19 | Kim Eng | SATS | 5.31 | 5.8 | Buy | |
| 05/13/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.27 | 5.6 | Buy | |
| 05/17/19 | OCBC | SATS | 5.22 | 5.35 | Hold | |
| 05/21/19 | phillip | SATS | 5.08 | 5.47 | Accumulate | DCF, PER24x FY19 |
| 05/21/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.08 | 5.05 | Hold | Buy @ 4.60 |
| 05/21/19 | DBS Vickers | SATS | 5.08 | 5.44 | Buy | DCF & PER22x FY20 |
| 06/03/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.07 | 5.05 | Hold | Buy @ $4.70 |
| 06/06/19 | DBS Vickers | SATS | 5.04 | 5.44 | Buy | |
| 06/12/19 | Kim Eng | SATS | 5.04 | 6.1 | Buy | DCF |
| 06/17/19 | CIMB | SATS | 5.14 | 5.4 | Add | PER21.9x CY20 |
| 07/05/19 | Kim Eng | SATS | 5.36 | 6.1 | Buy | DCF |
| 07/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.37 | 5.05 | Sell | |
| 07/19/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.32 | 4.8 | Sell | |
| 07/19/19 | DBS Vickers | SATS | 5.32 | 5 | Hold | DCF |
| 07/19/19 | CIMB | SATS | 5.32 | 5.4 | Hold | PER21.9x CY20 |
| 07/22/19 | OCBC | SATS | 5 | 5.28 | Hold | FCFF |
| 07/22/19 | phillip | SATS | 5 | 5.47 | Accumulate | |
| 07/22/19 | Lim & Tan | SATS | 5 | 0 | Hold |
Sasseur - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/20/19 | Kim Eng | Sasseur | 0.74 | 0.9 | Buy | DDM |
| 02/20/19 | DBS Vickers | Sasseur | 0.74 | 0.97 | Buy | DCF |
| 04/03/19 | CIMB | Sasseur | 0.78 | 0.92 | Add | |
| 06/25/19 | Kim Eng | Sasseur | 0.79 | 0.9 | Buy | |
| 08/08/19 | DBS Vickers | Sasseur | 0.8 | 0.97 | Buy | DCF |
| 08/13/19 | CIMB | Sasseur | 0.805 | 0.94 | Add | DDM |
Sanli Environmental - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 05/06/19 | Tayrona | Sanli Env | 0.18 | 0.234 | Overweight |
Stock calls for 11 September 2019
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 09/11/19 | UOB Kay Hian | A-Reit | 3.14 | 3.25 | Hold | DDM |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | CDL Hospitality | 1.63 | 1.79 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | Amfrasers | Frencken | 0.675 | 0.81 | outperform | PER10x FY20 |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.24 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Manulife US Reit | 0.915 | 0.98 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | Lim & Tan | Overseas Edu | 0.29 | 0 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Oxley | 0.31 | 0.41 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.2 | 1.32 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.7 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Suntec Reit | 1.94 | 2.08 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | UOB | 25.77 | 29.5 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | Macquarie | Venture | 15.33 | 17.7 | Outperform | Roe-g/Coe-g,PER14x FY19 |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Wilmar | 3.8 | 4.5 | Buy |
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/17/19 | DBS Vickers | Roxy-Pacific | 0.405 | 0.39 | Hold | |
| 02/25/19 | OCBC | Roxy-Pacific | 0.415 | 0.41 | Hold | |
| 04/17/19 | OCBC | Roxy-Pacific | 0.4 | 0.41 | Hold | |
| 05/09/19 | OCBC | Roxy-Pacific | 0.405 | 0.41 | Hold | |
| 05/10/19 | DBS Vickers | Roxy-Pacific | 0.405 | 0.39 | Hold | RNAV (55% discount) |
| 07/15/19 | OCBC | Roxy-Pacific | 0.385 | 0.41 | Hold | |
| 08/05/19 | DBS Vickers | Roxy-Pacific | 0.39 | 0.39 | Hold | RNAV (55% discount) |
Riverstone - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/27/19 | CIMB | Riverstone | 1.1 | 1.22 | Add | PER16.7x FY20 |
| 02/27/19 | DBS Vickers | Riverstone | 1.1 | 1.19 | Hold | PER16x FY19 |
| 05/14/19 | CIMB | Riverstone | 0.995 | 1.22 | Add | PER16.5x FY20 |
| 05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Riverstone | 0.975 | 1.03 | Hold | PER16.8x FY19/20 |
| 08/13/19 | DBS Vickers | Riverstone | 0.9 | 1.16 | Buy | PER14.5x FY20 |
Raffles Medical - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/23/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.11 | 1.16 | Accumulate | |
| 02/20/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.3 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/26/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.02 | Neutral | DCF |
| 02/26/19 | OCBC | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.25 | Buy | |
| 02/26/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.12 | Hold | Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19 |
| 02/26/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.12 | 1.09 | Neutral | DCF |
| 04/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.07 | 1.02 | Neutral | |
| 05/02/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.08 | 1.09 | Neutral | DCF |
| 05/02/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.08 | 1.12 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 05/14/19 | Kim Eng | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.13 | Hold | DCF |
| 06/12/19 | CIMB | Raffles Medical | 1.02 | 1.1 | Hold | |
| 07/30/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1.03 | 1.27 | Buy | DCF |
| 07/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Raffles Medical | 1.03 | 1.02 | Neutral | |
| 07/30/19 | DBS Vickers | Raffles Medical | 1.03 | 1.12 | Hold | Sum of parts |
| 07/31/19 | phillip | Raffles Medical | 1.04 | 1.09 | Neutral | DCF |
Stock calls for 10 September 2019
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 09/10/19 | DMG & Partners | Avi-Tech | 0.31 | 0.31 | Neutral | DCF |
| 09/10/19 | Amfrasers | CSE Global | 0.46 | 0.64 | Outperform | Sum of parts, PER12x, PB2x |
| 09/10/19 | Lim & Tan | SPH | 1.99 | 0 | Hold | |
| 09/10/19 | DBS Vickers | UOL | 7.47 | 8.53 | Buy | RNAV (35% discount) |
| 09/10/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Yangzijiang | 0.98 | 1.46 | Buy | PB0.84x |
Monday, September 9, 2019
Q & M - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/23/19 | phillip | Q & M | 0.495 | 0.513 | Neutral |
Propnex - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/27/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.565 | 0.66 | Buy | |
| 04/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.595 | 0.66 | Buy | |
| 05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.505 | 0.6 | Buy | DCF, PER10x FY19 |
| 06/03/19 | phillip | Propnex | 0.5 | 0.63 | Buy | DCF |
| 06/07/19 | CIMB | Propnex | 0.49 | 0.64 | Add | |
| 08/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.505 | 0.5 | Hold | |
| 08/19/19 | phillip | Propnex | 0.5 | 0.59 | Buy | DCF |
Perennial Reit - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/14/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.645 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
| 04/24/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.65 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
| 05/13/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.64 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
Stock calls for 9 September 2019
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 09/09/19 | CIMB | CSE Global | 0.465 | 0.68 | Add | |
| 09/09/19 | Kim Eng | IHH Healthcare | 1.85 | 2.1 | Hold | Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.30 target price |
| 09/09/19 | DBS Vickers | Keppel Pacific | 0.75 | 0.9 | Buy | |
| 09/09/19 | DBS Vickers | Mapletree Commercial | 2.24 | 2.4 | Buy | DCF |
| 09/09/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Marine | 1.19 | 1.26 | Hold | PB1.2x CY19 |
| 09/09/19 | Kim Eng | Venture | 15.48 | 18.88 | Buy | Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19 |
The HK protestors have revealed their true aim of their protests.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protesters-plan-march-022648940.html
The true aim of the protests is to break away from China and gain independence but HK has always been part of China.
Who are the organizers of these protests?
1. HK institute of human resource management
2. HK confederation of trade unions
3. HK journalists association
4. Civic party
5. Labour party
6. Democratic party
What do these organizers have in common?
They all received fundings from NED.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html
The true aim of the protests is to break away from China and gain independence but HK has always been part of China.
Who are the organizers of these protests?
1. HK institute of human resource management
2. HK confederation of trade unions
3. HK journalists association
4. Civic party
5. Labour party
6. Democratic party
What do these organizers have in common?
They all received fundings from NED.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html
Sunday, September 8, 2019
Why is making an interest rate policy a difficult task in China?
China has different provinces with different economic growth and each province has different tiered cities (tier 1, tier 2 & tier 3) which have different property prices.
2018 GDP numbers in China provinces:
China was growing at 6.6% in 2018 but its provinces were growing at different rates. Tianjin was growing at 3.6% (below the country 6.6%) while Guizhou and Tibet were growing at 9.1% (above the country 6.6%). Each province has its own tiered cities with different property prices.
When China cuts/raises its interest rates, the rates will have to be applied across the board and each province will be impacted differently. For example, if China cut its interest rates, Tianjin's GDP growth (3.6%) might grow closer to the national rate (6.6%) which was good for Tianjian but Guizhou's GDP growth (9.1%) might be inflated to the extent that it became an overheating economy which was bad for Guizhou. The interest rate changes would also impact the property prices in the different tiered cities in each province.
Therefore, the Chinese government has to assess the interest rates' impacts in each province first before making any change to the current interest rates. The assessments will take time since every mayor has to report the impacts back to the central government for better decision making.
The SG government is glad that it is not facing such a difficult task. Can you imagine SG has different GDP growth in each town? What if Ang Mo Kio had a 9.1% growth while Chua Chu Kang had a 3.6% growth and each town had its own tiered cities? Would the SG government be able to implement the property measures so easily?
2018 GDP numbers in China provinces:
When China cuts/raises its interest rates, the rates will have to be applied across the board and each province will be impacted differently. For example, if China cut its interest rates, Tianjin's GDP growth (3.6%) might grow closer to the national rate (6.6%) which was good for Tianjian but Guizhou's GDP growth (9.1%) might be inflated to the extent that it became an overheating economy which was bad for Guizhou. The interest rate changes would also impact the property prices in the different tiered cities in each province.
Therefore, the Chinese government has to assess the interest rates' impacts in each province first before making any change to the current interest rates. The assessments will take time since every mayor has to report the impacts back to the central government for better decision making.
The SG government is glad that it is not facing such a difficult task. Can you imagine SG has different GDP growth in each town? What if Ang Mo Kio had a 9.1% growth while Chua Chu Kang had a 3.6% growth and each town had its own tiered cities? Would the SG government be able to implement the property measures so easily?
When will China reduce its interest rates?
When the US and the rest of the world are in a rate-cutting frenzy, China cannot alienate itself and hold its rates perpetually. Thus, it is a question of when will China do it instead.
In order for our readers to understand this better, it is best that the readers read and understand the rationale and logic of China not reducing its interest rates at this moment.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
What had China done insofar to stimulate its economy after the US cut the FED rates?
China had implemented the new LPR and reduced the RRR.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-is-renminbi-rmb-depreciating-again.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/china-has-just-cut-banks-rrr-by-50bp.html
Please read our post on RRR to understand its impact.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html
China does not have runaway inflation, so China can afford to cut its interest rates. However, China is not doing it now. Why?
If you think that China doesn't cut its interest rates because of its simmering inflation, then I must say that you are wrong because you do not understand China's economic structure well enough.
The properties constitute a large part of the people's assets and the property sector is the Achilles heel of China. Therefore, any disruption to the property sector will disrupt the economy severely.
As we can see, China has been trying to avoid any disruption to the property sector by implementing LPR and reducing RRR instead of cutting its interest rates because these 2 policies have minimal impacts on the property sector.
China will only cut its interest rates after it has figured out how to rein in the property prices with new property policies and measures because cutting the interest rates will create a buying frenzy to inflate the property prices. A skyrocketing property market will create social unrest and China is trying to maintain stability in the country.
In order for our readers to understand this better, it is best that the readers read and understand the rationale and logic of China not reducing its interest rates at this moment.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
What had China done insofar to stimulate its economy after the US cut the FED rates?
China had implemented the new LPR and reduced the RRR.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-is-renminbi-rmb-depreciating-again.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/china-has-just-cut-banks-rrr-by-50bp.html
Please read our post on RRR to understand its impact.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html
China does not have runaway inflation, so China can afford to cut its interest rates. However, China is not doing it now. Why?
If you think that China doesn't cut its interest rates because of its simmering inflation, then I must say that you are wrong because you do not understand China's economic structure well enough.
The properties constitute a large part of the people's assets and the property sector is the Achilles heel of China. Therefore, any disruption to the property sector will disrupt the economy severely.
As we can see, China has been trying to avoid any disruption to the property sector by implementing LPR and reducing RRR instead of cutting its interest rates because these 2 policies have minimal impacts on the property sector.
China will only cut its interest rates after it has figured out how to rein in the property prices with new property policies and measures because cutting the interest rates will create a buying frenzy to inflate the property prices. A skyrocketing property market will create social unrest and China is trying to maintain stability in the country.
Saturday, September 7, 2019
Baltic dry index - 2462
Today, Friday, September 06 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 37 points, reaching 2462 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
The Hong Kong protest continues after HK CE's telecast.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protesters-aim-stress-test-airport-210048026.html
We had already stated that the HK protest would not end because the protestors were paid to protest. Those protestors are not interested in the extradition bill because it is never the goal of their protests. Their goal is to make quick money out of these protests.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-rejected-hk-ces.html
We hate to be right in our analysis for this kind of situation.
We had already stated that the HK protest would not end because the protestors were paid to protest. Those protestors are not interested in the extradition bill because it is never the goal of their protests. Their goal is to make quick money out of these protests.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-rejected-hk-ces.html
We hate to be right in our analysis for this kind of situation.
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