Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Monday, October 26, 2020
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Western forces are behind Thailand (BKK) protests! - Part 4
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204212.shtml
There is incremental evidence unraveling that foreign forces are behind the BKK protests after our first posting. It is not easy to raise local funds for the protests because many Thais are not doing well as Thailand's economy is badly affected by the pandemic. Therefore, I do not believe that the protests are funded by the locals.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/western-forces-are-behind-thailand-bkk.html
The Thai government must instruct the Thai police, DSI, to investigate the BKK protests and arrest the people involved in organizing and taking foreign funds to support the protests. The DSI must also investigate the local NGOs which are taking foreign donations as these foreign-funded NGOs are most likely funding the protests.
The Thai government must not give in to the protestors' demands because doing so will only embolden the protestors and make them demand more. The Thai government must learn from the mistakes made by the HK government. The HK government relented and retracted the extradition bill which emboldened the HK rioters to demand more by staging more protests to disrupt the HK economy. In the end, it was the imposition of the national security act that quelled the HK protests. Therefore, it was the tougher measure that put an end to all the chaos and not the relentment.
All foreign-funded protests, no matter the cause, must be cracked down on because the real intention of the foreign forces is to overthrow the ruling government. These foreign forces are neither altruistic nor have the real intention to improve the local residents' lives but to fulfill their selfish political agendas. If the protests are not quashed in time, the bankruptcies and unemployment rates will rise in Thailand because its economy will deteriorate faster during the covid period.
I do not support foreign-funded protests because such protests will not improve the economy but will worsen the economy instead.
Friday, October 23, 2020
Western forces are behind Thailand (BKK) protests! - Part 3
Protective gears were being distributed to the BKK protestors as captured on camera. This BKK situation was exactly the same as the HK protests in 2019.
Who funded the BKK protests?
Thursday, October 22, 2020
No US monetary and fiscal policy can save the US stock markets. - Part 5
It has been some time since I last updated this posting. Therefore, I will highlight some economic indicators to show that there is a limit to what the US FED can do beyond a certain threshold. Do not believe in analysts that tell you not to fight the FED because the FED is not omnipotent.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/market-distortions-are-precursors-of.html
The FED balance sheet has exceeded US$7T because of its stimulative policies to revive the US economy. How much more can the FED buy to protect its economy? How effective is the FED's purchases in helping to support the economy?
The US excess reserves have been increasing after August 2020. Why? Is the IOER so attractive that the US banks are rushing to deposit their excess cash with the FED to earn the high-interest return? Of course not!
The IOER is at 0.10% but the US banks are still interested to park their excess cash with the FED. Why?
Well, I can only say that the US banks are less inclined to do money lendings to earn better interest returns than the IOER. Why? There are many reasons for this.
Maybe the banks cannot find better opportunities.
Maybe the banks are risk-averse nowadays.
Maybe the banks are not optimistic about the future.
Maybe..........
I let my viewers form their own opinions but the fact is the US banks are parking their cash with the FED instead of pumping the cash into the financial system to increase the money supply as expected by the FED. My take on this is that the FED action (increase the money supply) is losing its efficacy.
Maybe the bank is right after all. Why?
The velocity of M2 money plunges into the abyss in 2020. What does the velocity mean? In layman terminology, the velocity means the turnover rate of money. The Americans are well known for being spenders than savers but they're keeping their monies longer with them in 2020 and have a lesser propensity to use their monies which results in the velocity falling off the precipice. Why are Americans not using their monies frequently in 2020 like before? I will let my viewers think about this. All I can say is that a healthy economy will not have such a significant plunge in just a year. Are the stimulative policies not working anymore?
Last but not least, I must say that a healthy stock market and a good economy must have corresponding good economic traits. Otherwise, a financial crisis will ensue after the threshold is breached. Where is that threshold? I really don't know but I will know it when the financial crisis hits us. By then, it will be too late!
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Western forces are behind Thailand (BKK) protests! - Part 2
We are right about the BKK protests!
The BKK protestors have 3 demands.
"Three demands were presented to the Government of Thailand: the dissolution of parliament, ending intimidation of the people, and the drafting of a new constitution."
None of the 3 demands is about China or the banning of Huawei 5G. Therefore, there shouldn't be any anti-China element in the protests unless the protests are funded by the US.
However, the Taiwan independence flag, Hong Kong pro-democracy flag, and the flag of Tibet were present during the BKK protests. Why?
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4030648
The answer is crystal clear!
The US hospitality debts are going to blow up soon!
What will this impact?
Well, these hospitality debts are packaged into CMBS by banks and sold to the US FED and other investors. Therefore, the banks won't be impacted as they've transferred the risks to other financial institutions and investors.
However, the CMBS market won't escape unscathed and might create a domino effect on other CMBS securities because investors might stay away from CMBS. When the CMBS liquidity disappears, the prices will crash unless the FED is prepared to step in to support the market again.
This crisis will make it very difficult for the FED to remain assets light and the FED will be heavily loaded with high-risk assets which will make the FED hard to shed these risky assets in the future.
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Western forces are behind Thailand (BKK) protests!
I see many similarities between the HK and BKK protests and I've highlighted them in this post.
The western forces (US & UK) are using the same modus operandi in HK and BKK.
The western forces will first instigate the local residents to hate their governments, brainwash them with western human rights values and democracy, and fund their protests to invoke a change in governance.
The first step to instigate the Thais to hate their King and government was done by a UK journalist. He revealed the King's expenditures in an exorbitant and profligate manner with the intention to cause public disgruntlement.
https://hype.my/2020/197034/thai-king-vajiralongkorn-shocking-expenses/
Lastly, the protests will be funded by western NGOs such as NED.
NED was set up by the CIA under the direction of President Ronald Regan. On the surface, the NED's mission is to promote democracy but its real intention is to overthrow any anti-US government.
These BKK protests have caused many Thai family discords and disharmonies now because the older generations support the monarchy whilst the younger generations don't since they've been brainwashed. This kind of family/society ramification also occurred in HK.
The Thais should look at HK and learn from Hongkongers' mistakes. The Hongkongers are regretting their riotings in 2018-2019 now because corporation bankruptcies have gone up and the unemployment rate is at a 16-year high. HK is worse off now after the HK riots and covid.
The covid outbreak has destroyed Thailand's economy and these BKK protests will only exacerbate the economic situation. The bankruptcies and unemployment rates will rise correspondingly if these BKK protests are continued for a longer period.
Many Hongkongers are regretting their riotings in 2018-2019 now!
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/cathay-pacific-cut-6-000-092620228.html
Many HK pilots and aircrews would be fired and things wouldn't be this bad if there were no protests in 2018-2019.
The HK bankruptcies also started to creep up above its mean after 2018 because of the anemic GDP growth caused by the HK riots and covid outbreak.
Many rioters are regretting their actions now because they've sparked the economic downfall and they're experiencing severe economic repercussions.
Furthermore, China has given Shenzhen more autonomy to develop its own economy to supersede HK.
I believe the HK rioters have gotten what they've asked for. Hahaha!
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 11
https://rb.gy/g6y43y
The S&P 500 is still showing a bearish trend because it has crashed through the 2nd candlestick gap.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/s-500-technical-analysis-part-10.html
Monday, October 19, 2020
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 10
https://rb.gy/g6y43y
How to identify a buying signal?
The S&P had rebounded but didn't close above the candlestick gap. Therefore, we need to wait for the S&P to close above the gap and also be above the 5-day SMA in order to buy S&P again.
Like I've said previously, there must be at least 2 positive technical indicators before we can buy or 2 negative indicators before we can sell.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/s-500-technical-analysis-part-9.html
Saturday, October 17, 2020
The northern hemisphere is facing a 2nd wave of covid outbreak.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/world/europe/europe-coronavirus.html
The 2nd wave of the pandemic has slapped SUTD again for its inaccurate data analysis on the covid outbreak.
SUTD was completely wrong in its data analysis for the covid situation in SG and France.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/sutd-made-bizarre-epidemic-prediction.html
SUTD didn't factor in the seasonal factor in its data analysis which we had mentioned below. Furthermore, SUTD followed the common bell curve principle blindly in its data analysis.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for.html
This singularity analysis resulted in a big margin of error and brought shame to SUTD.
We had managed to predict South Africa's outbreak by factoring in the seasonal factor and this seasonal factor is affecting the northern hemisphere again.
Friday, October 16, 2020
Singapore Nodx rose 5.9% in September 2020.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-september-exports-rise-5-020329490.html
Year on year changes (YOY):
September 2020: 5.9%
August 2020: 7.7%
July 2020: 6%
June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)
May 2020: -4.6%
April 2020: 9.7%
March 2020: 17.6%
February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)
January 2020: - 3.3%
December 2019: 2.4%
November 2019: - 5.9%
October 2019: - 12.3%
September 2019: -8.1%
August 2019: - 8.9%
July 2019: -11.2%
June 2019: -17.3%
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 9
When is the time to sell?
Well, when there are at least 2 negative indicators appearing, then that will be the signal to sell.
The ellipse that I've drawn has 2 negative indicators. The S&P closed below the 5-day SMA and the stochastics had a bearish crossover (black line < red line).
Furthermore, the bearish sentiment has appeared because the latest S&P index has crashed through the most recent candlestick gap.
Thursday, October 15, 2020
The US inflation is coming! - Part 4
From the above chart, we can tell that US inflation is coming. Please look at our previous explanation about CPI vs PPI below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/how-do-you-interpret-ppi-vs-cpi-and.html
My analysis is telling me that the US will achieve CPI above 2% in the 1st half of 2021 and the earliest period to hit the 2% target is in the 1st quarter of 2021.
Let's see if my analysis is correct or not.
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