Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 14

It had been a while since our last update in December 2021 and we would like to get in touch with the reality in 2022.

What has been going on in 2022?

The global fund manager survey had shown that their existential worries had changed to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war and global recession.

Top US banks are projecting the Fed rate to reach at least 2.5% by the end of 2022.

The current FED rate range is between 0.25-0.5% and the mortgage rates have surged to 4.67%.  What's gonna happen to the mortgage rate when the FED rate range is at least 2.5%?  I think the mortgage rate will be above 6% when the FED rate is at least 2.5% and this will be very taxing on homeowners.

Consequently, investors had increased their short positions in March 2022 because of worsening economic conditions.

There is a strong correlation between the technology stock market and central bank liquidity.  The QE had been boosting the technology market but the tide would change when quantitative tapering (QT) was implemented.  The US FED is projected to reduce its US$9T assets by 50% which is likely to begin in the 2nd half of 2022.  Can you imagine what will happen to the technology stocks when the QT starts?  

Last but not least, the EU has stated that it will begin its QT in Q3 2022.  Therefore, it is getting likely that the financial crisis will happen in the 2nd half of 2022.

Baltic dry index - 2357

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 673

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Jardine C&C - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/17/21	Macquarie	Jardine C&C	21.2	26.5	Outperform	Sum of parts

Japfa - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/02/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.935	1.18	Add
03/03/21	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.94	1.17	Buy	Sum of parts, PER8.2x FY20
04/08/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.9	1.18	Add
05/03/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.915	1.22	Add
05/03/21	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.915	1.17	Buy
07/02/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.82	1.22	Add	PER11.5x FY22
08/02/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.765	1.06	Add
08/03/21	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.735	0.77	Hold	Sum of parts
08/25/21	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.675	1.05	Buy	Sum of parts, PER8x FY21/22
09/09/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.71	1.06	Add	PER10x FY22
10/28/21	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.695	0.89	Buy	Sum of parts, PER7.5x FY22
11/01/21	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.685	0.6	Hold	Sum of parts, PER7.3x FY22, Buy @ $0.54
11/01/21	CIMB	Japfa	0.685	0.77	Hold
02/22/22	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.625	0.67	Hold
02/22/22	CIMB	Japfa	0.625	0.65	Hold
03/02/22	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.6	0.67	Hold	PER7.9x FY22
03/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.605	0.63	Hold	Sum of parts
03/31/22	CIMB	Japfa	0.72	0.81	Add	PER13.1x FY22

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call
05/31/21	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.33	0.46	Neutral
05/31/21	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.395	0.37	Neutral
06/30/21	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.405	0.65	Outperform
07/12/21	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.42	0.5	Buy
11/10/21	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.41	0.56	Outperform

Stock calls for 1 April 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/22	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.915	1	Neutral	Sum of parts
04/01/22	CIMB	DBS	35.83	39.9	Add
04/01/22	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.42	7.2	Add	Sum of parts
04/01/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.42	6.85	Buy
04/01/22	CIMB	OCBC	12.38	14.21	Add
04/01/22	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.64	3.16	Accumulate
04/01/22	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.715	0.9	Buy	Sum of parts
04/01/22	CIMB	UOB	32.02	35.4	Add
04/01/22	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.71	5.5	Buy	Sum of parts
04/01/22	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.53	2.15	Buy	Sum of parts

Which countries are on the wrong side of history?

Before we embark on this topic, let's find out the total number of UN members first (193 Member States).

Next, let's find out the total number of countries (48 Member States) that sanctioned Russia over the Ukraine invasion.

Therefore, we can conclude that only 25% of UN member states have sanctioned Russia which means that only a minority of UN members support Ukraine.

However, 3 populous countries such as China (1.44B), India (1.38B) and Indonesia (0.27B) are supporting Russia.  In other words, these 3 populous countries represent close to 40% (3.09B/7.9B) of the world population.

China, India, and Indonesia are supporting Russia by buying Russian oil and the oil transactions are boosting the Russian coffer.

India had imported at least 13m barrels of oil in late February from Russia.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-says-no-red-line-125814636.html

Indonesia is also mulling purchases of Russian oil too.

We can tell from these countries' actions that more countries and politicians are able to discern the truth behind the Ukraine invasion.

If you still don't know the truth, please read our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-hard-truth-russia-is-not-wrong-to.html