Stock calls for 10 July 2023

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/10/23	DMG & Partners	DBS	30.67	33	Neutral
07/10/23	Amfrasers	Sasseur	0.705	0.95	Outperform	DDM
07/10/23	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	2.64	2.99	Buy	PER9.7x FY25
07/10/23	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	7.32	7.07	Sell
07/10/23	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.45	2.67	Buy
07/10/23	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.05	1.2	Buy	PER10x FY24
07/10/23	DMG & Partners	UOB	27.4	32.3	Buy
07/10/23	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.67	5.3	Buy	PER12x FY24
07/10/23	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.67	3.99	Hold	PER26x

Baltic dry index - 1009

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 680

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/22	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.265	0.3	Hold
08/11/22	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.275	0.29	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/15/22	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.275	0.3	Neutral	Sum of parts
09/02/22	Lim & Tan	Golden Agri	0.275	0.4	Buy
11/15/22	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.285	0.33	Buy
03/01/23	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.265	0.31	Buy
03/01/23	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.265	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts
05/15/23	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.27	0.31	Buy	Sum of parts

GKE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/23	CIMB	GKE	0.087	0.094	Hold
06/15/23	CIMB	GKE	0.072	0.07	Hold	Sum of parts, Cut from $0.09

GHY - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/10/22	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.47	0.45	Hold	Sum of parts
08/19/22	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.47	0.43	Hold	Sum of parts
02/20/23	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.405	0.43	Hold
03/16/23	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.42	0.45	Hold	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 7 July 2023

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/07/23	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
07/07/23	Lim & Tan	Grand Bank	0.31	0.5	Buy
07/07/23	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.48	0.5	Accumulate
07/07/23	CIMB	Singapore Post	0.48	0.55	Hold	Sum of parts

Why are we confident that we're facing an impending US recession?

The 2 most important precursory factors for indicating a recession are flashing a RED signal.

Before we embark on the interpretation, please read our previous post below on how an economy works.

CPI/PPI --->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread --->> PMI --->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Let's focus on the 1st factor (3m-10y yield spread) first.

As shown on the yield spread chart, whenever there was a yield curve inversion (negative yield spread), a recession would follow thereafter.

The 2nd factor (PMI) had been contracting for the past 8 months.  This consecutive contractions in PMI will impact or show up on the GDP eventually because the GDP is a lagging indicator on economic growth.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-recent-us-ism-pmi-showed-that-us.html

Since both factors impact the GDP and are flashing RED signals, we don't see how the US can avert a recession.  This has become a WHEN question and not WHAT IF.