Baltic dry index - 1576

Today, Friday , October 19 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 11 points, reaching 1576 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 1067

The number of oil rigs in the United States increased by 4 to 873 in the week ending October 19 compared to the previous week, according to the Baker Hughes weekly rig count released on Friday.

The number of gas rigs in the US rose by 1 to 194 during the same week, bringing the total number of rigs in the country to 1,067. On an annual basis, the oil rig count was up 137.

In Canada, the total rig count was down by 4 with the number of oil rigs decreasing by 4 to 123 and gas rigs remaining unchanged at 68. Compared to the previous year, the number of oil rigs in Canada was was down by 11.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Malaysia has no money to build HSR but has money to build a crooked bridge to Singapore.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/johor-revive-crooked-bridge-project-104503225.html

What a joke! A stupid idea is being revived again!

Mahathir has to revive the national car ideology and the crooked bridge so that he can incentivize himself.

Sigh!

ISOTeam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.395	0.54	Buy	DCF, PER14x FY17
01/12/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.405	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/14/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.42	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/15/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.405	0.59	Buy	DCF, PER13.5x FY17
03/02/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.395	0.6	Buy
05/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.37	0.54	Buy
08/28/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.345	0.5	Buy	DCF
11/13/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.345	0.46	Buy	DCF, PER13x FY18
02/13/18	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.355	0.45	Buy	PER10.4x FY18
02/15/18	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.33	0.46	Buy	DCF, PER13x FY18
05/17/18	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.35	0.42	Buy	DCF
06/27/18	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.335	0.42	Buy

Isec Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/05/17	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.345	0.4	Buy	PER23x FY18
07/13/17	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.315	0.4	Buy	PER23x FY18

ISDN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/17	NRA	ISDN	0.27	0.3	Overweight
03/29/17	NRA	ISDN	0.197	0.32	Overweight	PER14.66x FY17
06/15/17	NRA	ISDN	0.225	0.32	Overweight	PER14.7x FY17
06/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.225	0.35	Buy	PER10.6x FY18
07/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.22	0.35	Buy
07/26/17	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.225	0	Trading Buy
08/08/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.26	0.35	Buy
08/15/17	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.26	0	Sell	Take profit
11/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.245	0.35	Buy
02/20/18	NRA	ISDN	0.22	0.32	Overweight	PER12.5x FY18
02/20/18	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.22	0.35	Buy
02/20/18	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.22	0	Trading Buy
02/28/18	Lim & Tan	ISDN	0.23	0	Take Profit
05/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	ISDN	0.21	0.365	Buy
08/13/18	NRA	ISDN	0.215	0.32	Overweight	PER7.3x FY18

Stock calls for 19 October 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/19/18	Lim & Tan	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.41	0	Hold
10/19/18	SAC Advisors	Hong Lai Huat	0.2	0.51	Buy	RNAV (40% discount), PB0.8x FY18
10/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.76	6.79	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $6.10
10/19/18	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.76	7.97	Buy
10/19/18	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.76	8.28	Add	Sum of parts
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.73	0.95	Buy
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.7	12.4	Hold
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.585	0.65	Buy	DCF
10/19/18	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.585	0.665	Buy
10/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.96	2.3	Buy	DCF
10/19/18	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.48	31.7	Buy
10/19/18	JP Morgan	Yangzijiang	1.37	1.4	Neutral

SIA's notes coupon is higher than Temasek's bond.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/sia-prices-s600m-notes-issue-names-shells-goh-swee-chen-as-board-director

We had stated yesterday that the Temasek's bond was not attractive.

True enough, SIA prices its notes much higher than Temasek.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/temasek-5-year-retail-bond-yield-of-27.html

The US-China trade war will intensify.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economic-policy-toward-china-tougher-economists-reuters-012214372--business.html

This is not surprising as Trump sees no reason not to.  We've stated the rationale for such a scenario below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/jp-morgan-sees-all-out-trade-war.html

China GDP was growing at 6.5% in Q3 2018.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/instant-view-chinas-third-quarter-gdp-rises-6-023650286--business.html

The China economy is slowing down and it will affect the global markets because China contributes around 39% of the world GDP growth.

The global stock markets cannot continue to rise when the global economies are slowing down.

Ireit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/09/17	DBS Vickers	Ireit	0.73	0.75	Hold	DCF
05/24/17	DBS Vickers	Ireit	0.755	0.75	Hold	DCF

IPS Securex - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/17	DMG & Partners	IPS Securex	0.155	0.34	Buy	DCF, PER13x FY18
09/11/17	DMG & Partners	IPS Securex	0.082	0.09	Neutral	DCF

Indofood Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.545	0.58	Buy
02/13/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.54	0.58	Buy
03/02/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.52	0.56	Hold
05/03/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.49	0.56	Hold	DCF
07/11/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.475	0.56	Hold
07/31/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.495	0.49	Hold	DCF
08/28/17	DIR	Indofood Agri	0.46	0.4	Underperform	PER7.5x FY17/18
09/13/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.46	0.49	Hold
10/30/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.455	0.48	Hold	DCF
11/13/17	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.455	0.48	Hold
11/20/17	DIR	Indofood Agri	0.445	0.4	Underperform	PER7.5x FY17/18
01/15/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.405	0.48	Hold
03/02/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.34	0.36	Hold	DCF
04/13/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.325	0.36	Hold
05/02/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.32	0.36	Hold	DCF
08/03/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.225	0.21	Hold	DCF
09/13/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.183	0.21	Hold
10/11/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.215	0.21	Hold	DCF

Stock calls for 18 October 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/18/18	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.49	0.58	Buy	DDM
10/18/18	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.49	0	Hold
10/18/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.87	2.52	Add	PB2.2x CY18

Temasek 5-year retail bond yield of 2.7% is not good. Why?

The US 2-year treasury yield is already at 2.895% but the Temasek 5-year retail bond yield is only at 2.7%.

As the US Fed is expected to increase interest rates 3x in 2019 and another 1x in 2020, the USD is expected to appreciate against Asian currencies.  Therefore, it is unlikely to suffer currency exchange loss from the USD.  It is better to invest in a shorter bond term so that investors can reinvest upon maturity to capture the higher interest rate.

All the factors make Temasek's 5-year retail bond looks like a not so good investment.

Indian's HSR has stalled!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/10/17/india-200-mph-bullet-train-cant-get-started/

The Indian government has encountered some problem in land acquisitions for Japan made HSR.

The government doesn't have the money to properly compensate those affected residents, resulting in huge protests.

There is no way the government can start this HSR project because only 0.9Ha of land is acquired out of the 1400ha needed.  It will take a super long time to acquire the required land size.  Therefore, this HSR project will not kick off.

IHH Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/17	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.96	2.35	Add	Ringgit $7.06 target price, Sum of parts
02/27/17	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.93	1.83	Hold	Ringgit $5.80 target price
03/09/17	DIR	IHH Healthcare	1.91	2.06	Hold	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.47 target price
04/10/17	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.89	1.85	Hold
05/22/17	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.91	2.3	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $7.15 target price
05/22/17	DMG & Partners	IHH Healthcare	1.91	2.35	Buy	DCF, Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda18x FY18
05/23/17	DIR	IHH Healthcare	1.92	2.12	Hold	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.56
05/23/17	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.92	1.8	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.60
06/05/17	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.92	2	Hold	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.17 target
06/06/17	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.915	2.21	Add	Ringgit $6.84 target
06/14/17	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.94	2.31	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $7.15 target
06/19/17	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.945	1.8	Hold
07/05/17	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.88	1.98	Hold	Ringgit $6.15 target price
08/01/17	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.88	1.8	Hold
08/24/17	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.895	1.73	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.50
08/24/17	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.895	2.22	Add	Ringgit $6.99 target price
08/24/17	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.895	2.16	Buy	Ringgit $6.81 target
08/24/17	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.895	1.94	Hold	Ringgit $6.1 target price
08/25/17	DIR	IHH Healthcare	1.895	2.09	Hold	Ringgit $6.56 target
11/28/17	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.83	1.71	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.50
11/28/17	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.83	2.08	Add	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.36 target
11/28/17	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.83	2.23	Buy	Ringgit $6.81 target
11/28/17	Lim & Tan	IHH Healthcare	1.83	0	Hold	Expensive at PER50x FY18
11/28/17	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.83	2.05	Buy	Ringgit $6.3 target price
02/28/18	DMG & Partners	IHH Healthcare	2.05	2.36	Buy	DCF/SOP-based Ringgit $7 target price
03/20/18	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.02	2.29	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.81 target
03/23/18	MIDF	IHH Healthcare	2.01	2.32	Buy	Ringgit $6.91 target price
04/17/18	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	2.05	2.36	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $7 target price
04/17/18	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	2.05	2.31	Buy	Ringgit $6.86
04/26/18	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	2.04	2.31	Buy	Rinngit $6.81 target
05/28/18	DMG & Partners	IHH Healthcare	2.08	2.36	Buy	DCF & Sum of parts & EV/Ebitda 18x FY19,  Ringgit $7 target price
08/21/18	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.84	2.29	Add	Ringgit $6.86 target
08/21/18	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.84	2.14	Buy	Ringgit $6.35 target price
08/29/18	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.85	2.2	Add	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.63 target
10/10/18	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.81	2.11	Buy	Ringgit $6.35 target price

IFS Capital - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/17/18	Amfrasers	IFS Capital	0.21	0.29	Buy

Ifast Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/20/17	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	0.855	0.94	Hold	DDM
02/20/17	DMG & Partners	Ifast Corp	0.855	0.79	Neutral
02/22/17	phillip	Ifast Corp	0.845	0.78	Neutral	PER25x FY17
04/28/17	DMG & Partners	Ifast Corp	0.6	0.88	Buy	DCF
05/02/17	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	0.715	0.94	Buy	DDM
05/05/17	phillip	Ifast Corp	0.74	0.78	Accumulate
05/25/17	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	0.87	1.05	Buy
06/13/17	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	0.975	1.02	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.90
07/31/17	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	1.05	1.08	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $0.95
08/01/17	DMG & Partners	Ifast Corp	1.07	1.01	Neutral	DCF
08/01/17	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.07	1.26	Buy
08/02/17	phillip	Ifast Corp	1.055	1.11	Accumulate	PER34.3x FY17
10/30/17	DMG & Partners	Ifast Corp	0.94	1.01	Neutral	DCF
10/30/17	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	0.94	1.26	Buy	DDM
11/01/17	phillip	Ifast Corp	0.97	1.11	Accumulate	GGM
02/15/18	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	0.88	1.26	Buy	DDM
04/30/18	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	0.9	1.26	Buy	DDM
07/30/18	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.09	1.26	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 17 October 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/17/18	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.715	0.82	Neutral
10/17/18	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.69	1.88	Accumulate
10/17/18	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.11	2.05	Neutral
10/17/18	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.4	1.66	Accumulate
10/17/18	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.855	0.97	Accumulate
10/17/18	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	24.24	29.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.53x FY19
10/17/18	phillip	First Reit	1.18	1.3	Neutral
10/17/18	CIMB	First Reit	1.18	1.36	Add	DDM
10/17/18	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.23	2.15	Neutral
10/17/18	Amfrasers	IFS Capital	0.21	0.29	Buy
10/17/18	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.61	0.9	Buy
10/17/18	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.34	1.45	Accumulate	DDM
10/17/18	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.34	1.52	Buy
10/17/18	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.34	1.48	Buy	DDM
10/17/18	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.34	1.51	Add	DDM
10/17/18	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.94	2.09	Neutral
10/17/18	OCBC	SIA	9.15	10.71	Buy	PB0.9x